Cheap HD DVD players might win the format war? - Blu-ray Forum

Canada · 09-02-2007, 06:53 AM

No doubt if HD DVD wins this war it will be because of there cheap player. This will be a the worst thing to happen to a superior format since it happened to Beta Max back in the 80's. If HD DVD wins it will be most likely because the average consumer could not care less. I am saying that we (home theater buffs) can not let this happen we (htb's) have to fight to make sure the superior format wins. I know what HD DVD is going to retourt with already what if we come out with a tri layer disk, my answer to that will be so you have 45 gigs on 3 layers we have 5 more gigs than you do on one less layer. If HD DVD started to release 45 gig tri layer disks then we would wave our 75 gig tri layer disk in there face. It might come down to the mass market though, I am sad to say.

Sony's pricing of the PS3?

I have no idea why Sony is discontinuing there $ 400 60 gig PS3 and putting a new 80 gig on the market for $ 700. $ 700 dollars is a hell of a lot of money or a blu ray player/ gaming console. I picked up a PS3 in Canada for $ 550 there is no way I would have picked one up at $700 dollars. Last time I checked which was just a couple of minutes ago we had not won the format war. Jack the prices up after the format war is over, Sony can make a hell of a lot more money by discounting the PS3 now and winning this format war. I may have not had such a problem with Sony doing this if Paramount didn't go HD DVD exclusive, I think that is huge news, or maybe it's just me? I think not.

daman · 09-02-2007, 06:55 AM

Dude, come down

there was a sale on amazon for PS3 + 8 bluray movies for $472....more deals will come this holidays. Price will come down.

blitz6speed · 09-02-2007, 07:00 AM

Im sure those guys are dyieng to get 199 players and 40 dollar combo discs. Give me a break. Mass market is absolutely USELESS at this point and for the next year. No "normal" person is going to touch HD formats with a 10-foot pole while there is a format war going on, let alone the fact that they need a nice HDTV to see the difference, and they have to actually love movies enough to rebuy some of their collection in HD and cease buying DVDs.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

At any price.

Right now, the Early Adopters need to step in and make a choice, along with them, you have the HD Gamers who are now in love with HD due to their HDTV+HD Game systems and try to get them to jump in as well. Once this group make a choice, in a few years, the "normal" consumer may see this great selection of hardware and software and decide the time is right. That time is FAR, FAR from this point in time. It is why the Scorched Earth pricing of Toshiba is actually going to be the death of the format, rather then the saviour of it.

Canada · 09-02-2007, 07:06 AM

well put, if Toshiba is discounting there players so much what sort of money are the making on an HD DVD player. It is hard to recall seeing an HD DVD player advertised in a flyer that was not Toshiba.

T-Town Oil · 09-02-2007, 07:08 AM

this is crazy...people worrying about some piece of junk player. i think of it like this. people dont stop buying cadillacs just because you can buy a crappy ass hyundai (sorry to those owners but this is an analogy) for a whole lot less. man...have a little bit of faith in the product you claim to support.

ESUNintel · 09-02-2007, 07:10 AM

Consumers are also brand conscience and many do prefer products made by the like of Sony, Samsung, Sharp, etc.. over Toshiba. It is also up to retailers, they need to let consumers know what i the best they can buy.

...but yes, it would help if BD prices dropped a bit.

ESUNintel · 09-02-2007, 07:13 AM

...it's true, only Toshiba prices are cut. Hopefully they will loose so much money and simply go broke, that would be nice. As mean as it might sound, the world would not miss Toshiba a whole lot.

ReduxInflux · 09-02-2007, 07:18 AM

forgive the crosspost as i posted this in another thread, but i think it got lost in the woods. here's my optimistic take on the cheap players (how realistic it is, however, remains to be seen)

you know...i was thinking. (thanks to some of you) i once was afraid of the $200 hd dvd player. but now, per the aforementioned reasons, i don't think the news is all that great. i look at it this way....

it could turn out to actually be a big boost for blu-ray. we should let them sell their hd dvd players and smile at the them as they walk out the door. why? dramatic irony. because we know what they don't. we know what they're going to do next. sometimes, you just have to let people learn through experience. preaching can convert. but others are from the school of hard-knocks. so here's what will happen: most will likely take it home and be all excited about owning one. after all its a high definition dvd player. it'll be hooked up to their CRT tv (i have an uncle in law who was under the impression that the two were compatible. he was talking about getting an hd dvd player because of its awesome technology at such a small price. blu-ray players are simply too expensive. and what does he have? a 32" Toshiba CRT. amazing) So....they'll buy their hd dvd player. and 1 of two things will happen: a) it wasn't what they thought it was. they return it having been educated by experience...thereby becoming aware of their options and that blu-ray is clearly better and is more expensive for a reason. or b) they take it home and proudly hook it up to their hdtv. only to realize that crap! you mean this thing can't play Spiderman or Die Hard or any Disney movie? they take it back (or keep it) and go out and buy a Blu-ray player. in both instances, the consumer is taking the first step through the door of HDM. and will realize sooner or later that Blu is what they really want. so without cheap hd-dvd players, there would be no HDM education.

GasCat · 09-02-2007, 07:20 AM

Combo discs could become a problem for Blu. Imagine a DVD owner who has been forced to buy those combo discs. Now they are ready to move up to HD. Will the consumer get a Blu player or are a HD-DVD player and flip the purchased discs? That said, the sales of combo discs are terrible. Blu-Ray discs outsell the combo discs from what I've seen.

Paramount isn't that big of a deal. It hurts us and thats about it. They will not sell more HD-DVD discs. Their numbers are the same as before. The PS3 market combined with the PC market (which is starting to come up to speed) will make this a Blu winter. Paramount has lost so much goodwill that 150 million dollar payout isn't worth it.

Do you hate Paramount now? That's the price they paid for selling out.

Joon · 09-02-2007, 07:44 AM

The High Def Disc market is so small that the studios will not get rid of DVD and go with combos only. Not going to happen. They will not dip into a market where DVD's cost $14 and come out with combo discs and force people to pay $27 up. Just to try and push a new format. Paramount made their money and whether HD-DVD or Blu-Ray wins it will not matter to them. In 18 months if blu-ray is selling discs 4-1 they just start selling Blu-Ray movies and are 150 million dollars richer.

Blue · 09-02-2007, 07:44 AM

Look at the difference in the players and that will give you an idea of the real differernce in price.
Both formats require an optical drive system. This disc is the same size etc etc the only difference is the NA (Numerical Appature, assume that means focal length) of the Lens.
Both formats have to be able to decode MPEG-2, AVC and VC-1 (albeit Blu-ray at a slightly higher bandwidth). Output to HDMI is the same and the rest of the outputs are optional.
The audio, that can be either decoded in the player or passed down the line to the receiver / TV to worry about again this is optional in both formats and players.

The last thing is the 'control' software. Java which Blu-ray is based on does not require much computing power (after all a different variation runs in most mobile phones) With HD-DVD HDi is used. As this is very propriotry and who knows how much computing power is required, but for Intel to be tagging along one has to wonder conscidering that Intel's interest in AV being LCOS chip got canned a long time ago. Microsoft's track record on operating systems for compact low CPU usage is not good. Therefore it can be assumed at best case the same computing power is required. Therefore the cost difference between formats is a slightly different curve on a lens. As the players are industry giants I don't think quantity is an issue. So either there is serious profiteering going on with Blu-ray or Massive losses with HD-DVD.

As the generations progress the players will become cheaper. It's becoming hard to determine the generations, for example is Samsung up to Generation 2, 3 or 4 with the number of models they have released (replacing an earlier one)? It's not the models that determine a generation but what's inside.

The first HD-DVD player was not a Set top player in the traditional sense but was nothing more than a laptop in a bigger case so in reality that was Gen 0, at least the first Blu-ray player was something for Samsung to build upon (which they then quickly did).

Amazing how the same people who thought that a laptop computer in a big black box was the greatest player, and also think that the PS3, a really smart computer in a small black snazzy box is not a real Blu-ray player!

NutsAboutPS3 · 09-02-2007, 07:45 AM

If you look at the Nielsen thread, over the period covered in the first post, movie sales have gone from 68:32 down to 66:34. One interpretation of this is that HD DVD is picking up new adopters faster than Blu-ray. If this is true, I can only see one reason for it, and that is the lower player prices.

The BDA MUST take this issue seriously. The average person will just see both formats as high definition, one is cheaper than the other, so they'll go for that one. They will see the cheaper format as more likely to win the format war as they will assume everyone else will also go for the cheaper option.

People talk about the high cost of an HDTV by comparison, but people already have a TV, and the majority of TVs sold now are HDTVs. In the UK, at least, most people don't want a TV bigger than 32", and you can get a 32" LCD HDTV for £299. If you compare the cost of players, the Toshiba is £179, whereas a PS3 is £399, so for the difference in price you can almost buy a 32" HDTV!

We can't hide from the fact that the ONLY reason people are buying HD DVD players is price. If the prices were the other way round with Blu-ray the cheaper format, the number of HD DVD players being sold would be absolutely miniscule, and we'd be seeing movie sales of 90:10 every week, with the 10% only due to people who have both formats.

Blu As Hell · 09-02-2007, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joon

The High Def Disc market is so small that the studios will not get rid of DVD and go with combos only. Not going to happen. They will not dip into a market where DVD's cost $14 and come out with combo discs and force people to pay $27 up. Just to try and push a new format. Paramount made their money and whether HD-DVD or Blu-Ray wins it will not matter to them. In 18 months if blu-ray is selling discs 4-1 they just start selling Blu-Ray movies and are 150 million dollars richer.

Preach brother!!!!!

Chris Gerhard · 09-02-2007, 08:13 AM

Inexpensive HD DVD players are helping their cause, but that can't win the war. HD DVD has had much lower priced players all along and is running second. Low priced players and exclusive support from two major studios and several minor ones sure means that HD DVD hangs around to mess up the market. Without something drastic happening, that doesn't change.

Chris

Dave · 09-02-2007, 08:16 AM

no it wont since Blu-ray players will be cheaper by the end of the year.

MOONPHASE · 09-02-2007, 08:17 AM

the cheaper the players are for hd-dvd the better for blu-ray to win

Blu-Light · 09-02-2007, 08:18 AM

This argument does not hold water. Blu standalones sales are now ahead of DUD sales even with the steep price drops that toshiba has been doing. Relax, sit back and watch DUD die a slow death over the coming months.

docjan_uk · 09-02-2007, 09:26 AM

So long as BD players are within 50 to a hundred bucks of HDDVD players for the coming year and the PS3 continues to sell millions over the same period whilst knowledge about it's ability to play BD's continues to spread amongst the PS3 community, you can be assured that BD wont be eclipsed by Christmas 2008.
Coincidentally that should be about the time when one would expect a decisive victory from BD.
If it's not achieved by then, optical HD media might become a much smaller player than all parties had hoped.

monkyman · 09-02-2007, 11:07 AM

The truth??? The truth is I don't think either side is going to sell a ton of HD players this christmas, reguardless the price. Unless there is some huge add campain coming out to boost sales for either side, I believe the masses still are not aware of the advantages of HD, or think DVDs are just fine for now.

Yes, sales will be up for both, but not "war ending" numbers. Disc sales will be up, but that will be normal holiday shopping, along with this summers blockbusters becoming available.

Don't worry about the cheap players, prices will be down on both formats.

Icemage · 09-02-2007, 11:18 AM

Hardware could be $1, but while discs are in the $30-40 MSRP range, no one outside of enthusiasts and gamers (i.e. audio/videophiles who will pay for the extra quality) will be willing to pay for them.

The public doesn't know the difference between an HD 1080p upconverting DVD player and an HD DVD player. They look the same, except that the upconverter is $99 and the HD DVD player is $199. Blu-ray though... that looks like something new.

Think about it.

09-02-2007, 06:53 AM	#1
Canada Blu-ray Archduke Top contributor Member since:Mar 2007 Location:Victoria, BC Home Theater Gallery:17 4K collection:305 Blu-ray collection:1201 DVD collection:37 Blu-ray reviews:42	Cheap HD DVD players might win the format war? No doubt if HD DVD wins this war it will be because of there cheap player. This will be a the worst thing to happen to a superior format since it happened to Beta Max back in the 80's. If HD DVD wins it will be most likely because the average consumer could not care less. I am saying that we (home theater buffs) can not let this happen we (htb's) have to fight to make sure the superior format wins. I know what HD DVD is going to retourt with already what if we come out with a tri layer disk, my answer to that will be so you have 45 gigs on 3 layers we have 5 more gigs than you do on one less layer. If HD DVD started to release 45 gig tri layer disks then we would wave our 75 gig tri layer disk in there face. It might come down to the mass market though, I am sad to say. Sony's pricing of the PS3? I have no idea why Sony is discontinuing there $ 400 60 gig PS3 and putting a new 80 gig on the market for $ 700. $ 700 dollars is a hell of a lot of money or a blu ray player/ gaming console. I picked up a PS3 in Canada for $ 550 there is no way I would have picked one up at $700 dollars. Last time I checked which was just a couple of minutes ago we had not won the format war. Jack the prices up after the format war is over, Sony can make a hell of a lot more money by discounting the PS3 now and winning this format war. I may have not had such a problem with Sony doing this if Paramount didn't go HD DVD exclusive, I think that is huge news, or maybe it's just me? I think not. Last edited by Canada; 09-02-2007 at 06:56 AM.

09-02-2007, 07:10 AM	#6
ESUNintel Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Colorado	It's also about brand Consumers are also brand conscience and many do prefer products made by the like of Sony, Samsung, Sharp, etc.. over Toshiba. It is also up to retailers, they need to let consumers know what i the best they can buy. ...but yes, it would help if BD prices dropped a bit.

09-02-2007, 07:44 AM	#11
Blue Super Moderator Top contributor Member since:Jan 2005 Location:Melbourne Australia Blu-ray collection:206	Look at the difference in the players and that will give you an idea of the real differernce in price. Both formats require an optical drive system. This disc is the same size etc etc the only difference is the NA (Numerical Appature, assume that means focal length) of the Lens. Both formats have to be able to decode MPEG-2, AVC and VC-1 (albeit Blu-ray at a slightly higher bandwidth). Output to HDMI is the same and the rest of the outputs are optional. The audio, that can be either decoded in the player or passed down the line to the receiver / TV to worry about again this is optional in both formats and players. The last thing is the 'control' software. Java which Blu-ray is based on does not require much computing power (after all a different variation runs in most mobile phones) With HD-DVD HDi is used. As this is very propriotry and who knows how much computing power is required, but for Intel to be tagging along one has to wonder conscidering that Intel's interest in AV being LCOS chip got canned a long time ago. Microsoft's track record on operating systems for compact low CPU usage is not good. Therefore it can be assumed at best case the same computing power is required. Therefore the cost difference between formats is a slightly different curve on a lens. As the players are industry giants I don't think quantity is an issue. So either there is serious profiteering going on with Blu-ray or Massive losses with HD-DVD. As the generations progress the players will become cheaper. It's becoming hard to determine the generations, for example is Samsung up to Generation 2, 3 or 4 with the number of models they have released (replacing an earlier one)? It's not the models that determine a generation but what's inside. The first HD-DVD player was not a Set top player in the traditional sense but was nothing more than a laptop in a bigger case so in reality that was Gen 0, at least the first Blu-ray player was something for Samsung to build upon (which they then quickly did). Amazing how the same people who thought that a laptop computer in a big black box was the greatest player, and also think that the PS3, a really smart computer in a small black snazzy box is not a real Blu-ray player! Last edited by Blue; 09-02-2007 at 07:46 AM.

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09-02-2007, 06:55 AM	#2
daman Active Member Member since:Jul 2007	Dude, come down there was a sale on amazon for PS3 + 8 bluray movies for $472....more deals will come this holidays. Price will come down.

09-02-2007, 07:00 AM	#3
blitz6speed Blu-ray Guru Member since:Oct 2006 Location:Anaheim Hills, CA Trading Score:8	Im sure those guys are dyieng to get 199 players and 40 dollar combo discs. Give me a break. Mass market is absolutely USELESS at this point and for the next year. No "normal" person is going to touch HD formats with a 10-foot pole while there is a format war going on, let alone the fact that they need a nice HDTV to see the difference, and they have to actually love movies enough to rebuy some of their collection in HD and cease buying DVDs. Not. Going. To. Happen. At any price. Right now, the Early Adopters need to step in and make a choice, along with them, you have the HD Gamers who are now in love with HD due to their HDTV+HD Game systems and try to get them to jump in as well. Once this group make a choice, in a few years, the "normal" consumer may see this great selection of hardware and software and decide the time is right. That time is FAR, FAR from this point in time. It is why the Scorched Earth pricing of Toshiba is actually going to be the death of the format, rather then the saviour of it.

09-02-2007, 07:06 AM	#4
Canada Blu-ray Archduke Top contributor Member since:Mar 2007 Location:Victoria, BC Home Theater Gallery:17 4K collection:305 Blu-ray collection:1201 DVD collection:37 Blu-ray reviews:42	well put, if Toshiba is discounting there players so much what sort of money are the making on an HD DVD player. It is hard to recall seeing an HD DVD player advertised in a flyer that was not Toshiba.

09-02-2007, 07:08 AM	#5
T-Town Oil Expert Member Top ranked HT gallery Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma Home Theater Gallery:20 Blu-ray collection:42 Blu-ray reviews:3	this is crazy...people worrying about some piece of junk player. i think of it like this. people dont stop buying cadillacs just because you can buy a crappy ass hyundai (sorry to those owners but this is an analogy) for a whole lot less. man...have a little bit of faith in the product you claim to support.

09-02-2007, 07:13 AM	#7
ESUNintel Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Colorado	...it's true, only Toshiba prices are cut. Hopefully they will loose so much money and simply go broke, that would be nice. As mean as it might sound, the world would not miss Toshiba a whole lot.

09-02-2007, 07:18 AM	#8
ReduxInflux Expert Member Member since:Jun 2007 Location:orange county, ca Blu-ray reviews:22 Trading Score:3	forgive the crosspost as i posted this in another thread, but i think it got lost in the woods. here's my optimistic take on the cheap players (how realistic it is, however, remains to be seen) you know...i was thinking. (thanks to some of you) i once was afraid of the $200 hd dvd player. but now, per the aforementioned reasons, i don't think the news is all that great. i look at it this way.... it could turn out to actually be a big boost for blu-ray. we should let them sell their hd dvd players and smile at the them as they walk out the door. why? dramatic irony. because we know what they don't. we know what they're going to do next. sometimes, you just have to let people learn through experience. preaching can convert. but others are from the school of hard-knocks. so here's what will happen: most will likely take it home and be all excited about owning one. after all its a high definition dvd player. it'll be hooked up to their CRT tv (i have an uncle in law who was under the impression that the two were compatible. he was talking about getting an hd dvd player because of its awesome technology at such a small price. blu-ray players are simply too expensive. and what does he have? a 32" Toshiba CRT. amazing) So....they'll buy their hd dvd player. and 1 of two things will happen: a) it wasn't what they thought it was. they return it having been educated by experience...thereby becoming aware of their options and that blu-ray is clearly better and is more expensive for a reason. or b) they take it home and proudly hook it up to their hdtv. only to realize that crap! you mean this thing can't play Spiderman or Die Hard or any Disney movie? they take it back (or keep it) and go out and buy a Blu-ray player. in both instances, the consumer is taking the first step through the door of HDM. and will realize sooner or later that Blu is what they really want. so without cheap hd-dvd players, there would be no HDM education.

09-02-2007, 07:20 AM	#9
GasCat Special Member Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	Combo discs could become a problem for Blu. Imagine a DVD owner who has been forced to buy those combo discs. Now they are ready to move up to HD. Will the consumer get a Blu player or are a HD-DVD player and flip the purchased discs? That said, the sales of combo discs are terrible. Blu-Ray discs outsell the combo discs from what I've seen. Paramount isn't that big of a deal. It hurts us and thats about it. They will not sell more HD-DVD discs. Their numbers are the same as before. The PS3 market combined with the PC market (which is starting to come up to speed) will make this a Blu winter. Paramount has lost so much goodwill that 150 million dollar payout isn't worth it. Do you hate Paramount now? That's the price they paid for selling out.

09-02-2007, 07:44 AM	#10
Joon Expert Member Member since:Aug 2007 Blu-ray collection:208 Trading Score:1	The High Def Disc market is so small that the studios will not get rid of DVD and go with combos only. Not going to happen. They will not dip into a market where DVD's cost $14 and come out with combo discs and force people to pay $27 up. Just to try and push a new format. Paramount made their money and whether HD-DVD or Blu-Ray wins it will not matter to them. In 18 months if blu-ray is selling discs 4-1 they just start selling Blu-Ray movies and are 150 million dollars richer.

09-02-2007, 07:45 AM	#12
NutsAboutPS3 Expert Member Member since:Apr 2007 Location:UK Blu-ray reviews:1	If you look at the Nielsen thread, over the period covered in the first post, movie sales have gone from 68:32 down to 66:34. One interpretation of this is that HD DVD is picking up new adopters faster than Blu-ray. If this is true, I can only see one reason for it, and that is the lower player prices. The BDA MUST take this issue seriously. The average person will just see both formats as high definition, one is cheaper than the other, so they'll go for that one. They will see the cheaper format as more likely to win the format war as they will assume everyone else will also go for the cheaper option. People talk about the high cost of an HDTV by comparison, but people already have a TV, and the majority of TVs sold now are HDTVs. In the UK, at least, most people don't want a TV bigger than 32", and you can get a 32" LCD HDTV for £299. If you compare the cost of players, the Toshiba is £179, whereas a PS3 is £399, so for the difference in price you can almost buy a 32" HDTV! We can't hide from the fact that the ONLY reason people are buying HD DVD players is price. If the prices were the other way round with Blu-ray the cheaper format, the number of HD DVD players being sold would be absolutely miniscule, and we'd be seeing movie sales of 90:10 every week, with the 10% only due to people who have both formats.

09-02-2007, 08:13 AM	#14
Chris Gerhard Banned Member since:Feb 2007	Inexpensive HD DVD players are helping their cause, but that can't win the war. HD DVD has had much lower priced players all along and is running second. Low priced players and exclusive support from two major studios and several minor ones sure means that HD DVD hangs around to mess up the market. Without something drastic happening, that doesn't change. Chris

09-02-2007, 08:16 AM	#15
Dave Expert Member Member since:Jun 2006 Location:Somewhere	no it wont since Blu-ray players will be cheaper by the end of the year.

09-02-2007, 08:17 AM	#16
MOONPHASE Blu-ray Duke Top contributor Member since:Jun 2007 Location:California 4K collection:8 Blu-ray collection:520 DVD collection:820 Blu-ray reviews:18 Trading Score:29	the cheaper the players are for hd-dvd the better for blu-ray to win

09-02-2007, 08:18 AM	#17
Blu-Light Expert Member Member since:Oct 2006	This argument does not hold water. Blu standalones sales are now ahead of DUD sales even with the steep price drops that toshiba has been doing. Relax, sit back and watch DUD die a slow death over the coming months.

09-02-2007, 09:26 AM	#18
docjan_uk Active Member Member since:Jun 2007 Blu-ray reviews:5	So long as BD players are within 50 to a hundred bucks of HDDVD players for the coming year and the PS3 continues to sell millions over the same period whilst knowledge about it's ability to play BD's continues to spread amongst the PS3 community, you can be assured that BD wont be eclipsed by Christmas 2008. Coincidentally that should be about the time when one would expect a decisive victory from BD. If it's not achieved by then, optical HD media might become a much smaller player than all parties had hoped.

09-02-2007, 11:07 AM	#19
monkyman Special Member Member since:Jun 2007	The truth??? The truth is I don't think either side is going to sell a ton of HD players this christmas, reguardless the price. Unless there is some huge add campain coming out to boost sales for either side, I believe the masses still are not aware of the advantages of HD, or think DVDs are just fine for now. Yes, sales will be up for both, but not "war ending" numbers. Disc sales will be up, but that will be normal holiday shopping, along with this summers blockbusters becoming available. Don't worry about the cheap players, prices will be down on both formats.

09-02-2007, 11:18 AM	#20
Icemage Blu-ray Ninja Top contributor Member since:Jul 2007	Hardware could be $1, but while discs are in the $30-40 MSRP range, no one outside of enthusiasts and gamers (i.e. audio/videophiles who will pay for the extra quality) will be willing to pay for them. The public doesn't know the difference between an HD 1080p upconverting DVD player and an HD DVD player. They look the same, except that the upconverter is $99 and the HD DVD player is $199. Blu-ray though... that looks like something new. Think about it.

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