HD media war, why it's not fierce, and the future (downloads)

[jsteinhauer]

I sometimes wonder why the two houses are not going at it in a more toe to toe fashion to try and be victorious, and all I can think of are ulterior motives. One may be that both camps realize that downloads are inevitable, despite some strong opinions here to the contrary (I'll get to that later). In many competetive fields it is often the practice not to undermine your competitors too deeply, since you are often in bed with them regarding other specialties in your area, or you may need them for something later. In this instance, if one side (BD or HDDVD) wins, the other will still have opportunities to make profits in the other format. Sony will make HDDVD players and release movies in HDDVD or Toshiba will will make Blu-ray players. They also have to keep the other parties satisfied...those that play both sides of the field. If someone is selling your produce, but you say or do something to hurt their sales of the other product, they make take that as unfriendly and start to take sides. This is the most likely short term scenario, I think. Fight your competitor, but don't knock them out. Sort of like Prosecutors and Defenders or Republicans and Democrats. You see them having beers together after hours.

On the other hand, if the writing is on the wall, and downloads are the future, this may simply be a game for both groups and studios to maximize the return on an investment that will be short lived.

While I have read may arguments about why downloadable HD movies will not be feasible in the US for quite some time, I'm not so sure about that. For it to be profitable, it does not need to be universally available. It need only be in major cities. Many rural Americans don't have high speed internet service and are quite fine without it. They still write checks and use postage stamps, too. They don't download things now, and won't feel the need to later. One of the arguments, though, is that even the current high speeds aren't enough to download one disc of BD content in a reasonable amount of time, but I can think of several ways around this at currently available speeds. Let's say you want a new release, you preorder it (there will be limited preorders available, of course, and they will be more expensive). In the days leading up to the release date, it is background downloaded into whatever device you will be using and finally ready to be accessed on the release date. You may also have the option of downloading higher quality content or more bonus content. For a lower price, you can have a lower priority, and the item will be completely downloaded to you at a slower pace and be available at a later time. For an even lower price, it may be available to you for a limited amount of time, after which it will expire and no longer be viewable. Thus making the difference between buying and renting. This has the potential to be enormously profitable, as nothing will need to be manufactured. The only downsides I see are the loss of money from selling collector editions, gift purchases and for some, the act of shopping importantly involves seeing and touching.

Does it make sense?