Sony: We're on track to ship 1 million PS3 units by year end

[neorecon]

This smells very familiar to the http://nexgenwars.com/ website that is supposedly suposted to show overall sales numbers for the three competing Next Generation gaming systems. They seem heavily sided to the XBox system and Wii. (They are the only ones that update automatically) The PS3 stats hardly update at all, yet there are sales that occur every day.

I hate sites that promote official statistics yet skew them to their favor.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by neorecon

This smells very familiar to the http://nexgenwars.com/ website that is supposedly suposted to show overall sales numbers for the three competing Next Generation gaming systems. They seem heavily sided to the XBox system and Wii. (They are the only ones that update automatically) The PS3 stats hardly update at all, yet there are sales that occur every day.

I hate sites that promote official statistics yet skew them to their favor.

I thought that website was generally bias free. The PS3 stats do update, but rather than like the X360/Wii, they update less often because there just are not as many PS3s around.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

I thought that website was generally bias free. The PS3 stats do update, but rather than like the X360/Wii, they update less often because there just are not as many PS3s around.

This is true, and now that the PS3 lines are pretty much up and running as of 11.22.06 you should start to see those numbers for the PS3 begin to clock up at a rapid rate.

[Deciazulado]

Well acording to their counter the PS3 is selling an average of about 21,000 units daily. If that pace don't change that makes it about 775k units for Xmas and 925k for the end of the year.

[theknub]

which is damn close to the 1 million that sony promised

[dialog_gvf]

Console sales for the USA

I haven't seen anyone discredited this information. In fact someone claiming to be from NPD recently posted a cease demand, and the numbers have all been adjusted since the last time I looked, to round to 5000, presumably to make them not NPDs specific numbers.

This shows through October there were 2.8 million Xbox 360 sales to users in the US. Generally people have been using a 2x multiple to figure out worldwide sales, but recently I've seen claims from Europeans that the Xbox 360 is only doing well in the UK.

Anyway, even not going there, the NPD numbers imply 6 million sold. While the nextgenwars claims over 8 million. If these are SHIPMENTS not sales to consumers, then they are really not meaningful. There could be two million Xbox 360 out there for the Xmas season ready to not be sold because the Wii takes a bunch.

Here's some interesting articles:

Update: Tracking video game sales by console

But to put Microsoft's numbers in context, the stats continue to show Sony's huge lead, thanks to the large number of PlayStation 2 consoles sold (about 110 million units). PS2 game sales still represent more than half the combined game revenue for the five publishers in the sample.

Portrait of the emerging business as an older dog

Forbes estimates losses for the first 4 years at approximately $4B. Add to that what we know from MSFT's subsequent earnings reports (which do break out segment P/L), and that total rises to at least $5.3B and possibly higher (depending on what Forbes included in their calculation). So, minimum $5.3B investment to date and counting, since the division still isn't profitable.

Let's be hugely generous to MSFT by assuming they can supplant SONY tomorrow, and get to that former level of record profitability (SONY currently being expected to lose as much as $1.7B on the back of the PS3 launch). At that rate of return, it would take another 5+ years to breakeven, for a net total of 10+ years just to recoup the investment

You can be sure the add-on isn't going to help.

Gary

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

Well acording to their counter the PS3 is selling an average of about 21,000 units daily. If that pace don't change that makes it about 775k units for Xmas and 925k for the end of the year.

Are you referring to the nextgenwars.com statistics?

If so, then I could find this strange.

Right now (as of the time of post), there are around 414k units of PS3 sold (based on what their site) says.

Assuming that we only have around 20 days left before the end of the year, then that would mean that your 21,000 units/day figure would yield only 420,000 units from now until year end. This is also assuming that the 21k (or so) units per day would come from the only places that are selling the PS3 at the present time: United States, Canada, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Assuming that the 21k daily figure doesn't change (or is constant all throughout), then we would only 840k units sold for the PS3 by year end. That's still not enough.

I'm worried about this because such a figure is WAAAY too low. In order to feed terror on the competition, Sony must show its competitors that they are not a force to be underestimated with.

Originally, I expected 2 million for the end of the year. I earlier assumed this figure based on the 1 million per month average. Unfortunatley, this figure may not be reached after all.

Now I start to worry. I am a bit worried because if Sony only makes a million this year (or even worse, less than 1m), will Sony be able to make up for it in the first three months of the year?

I don't even know if the combined force of Europe + other Asia + Australia + New Zealand + South America could make around 2 million or more extra units just for the month of March.

I'm not saying that I'm skeptical but I do feel worried. Remember that Sony's fiscal sales this year (ending March 2007) is a make-or-break period for SCE International. They can't end low, otherwise, it may be too late to recover back on lost sales after the end of fiscal year.

Remember, if Sony can't make 6 million, then 5 million units are enough (for me at least). Anything lower than that (especially 3 million or less) would be dismal.

That's what Sony can't afford to do.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

I'm not saying that I'm skeptical but I do feel worried. Remember that Sony's fiscal sales this year (ending March 2007) is a make-or-break period for SCE International. They can't end low, otherwise, it may be too late to recover back on lost sales after the end of fiscal year.

Remember, if Sony can't make 6 million, then 5 million units are enough (for me at least). Anything lower than that (especially 3 million or less) would be dismal.

That's what Sony can't afford to do.

Then again, consider if they lose $250 a unit whether they can afford to lose $1.25 - $1.5 billion in four months on the PS/3?

I certainly want to see the PS/3 show up in sufficient quantity to make sure those interested in getting one can get one with reasonable effort. Who knows how many that represents?

Things to look for in the next month or so:

- An indication that PS/3 shipments are increasing
- Any reliable numbers of add-on sales.
- Whether the buzz on the A2 is from new buyers or A1 upgraders.
- Indication of increasing BD movie sales
- CES announcements

Right now (to topic) the add-on attach rates that should have seen HD DVD increase their ranking numbers aren't there (400 -> 1000+) and the smaller than expected PS/3 sales has seen BD ranking remain in a range.

If holiday DVD shopping explains the push down for HD DVD, then the BD rankings actually represent a significant increase that is masked by holiday shopping.

Gary

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

Are you referring to the nextgenwars.com statistics?

Yes I was refering to your sig number. The day I posted that (Dec 5), that's the calculations I made.

Since it's your siggie, you know more than me how that counter is tallied as I have no idea how it's done

But one thing I have noted tho:

Since I posted that 21,000 daily figure, the counter seems to have magically slowed down to a trickle! It took a nose dive! Coincidence? Or Sentient Evil?

It's now at an average of 18,000 units sold daily. But that's an average of all days since Nov 17. Constant Vigilance! On Dec 5, 20,000+ units "sold" were being added on a daily basis, every day. Looking at the 5 days after I made the post, if you take my original post numbers and substract the current figure, hmmm what numbers do we get? 40,000 units sold in 5 days?!? 8,000 a day?!? So it nosedived from 20,000+ to 8,000 since I mentioned it was selling 21,000 daily on average since launch?!? mmmmm... mmmm. mmmm.
The Dark Side strong it is.. mmmmmm.. mmmmmm.. mmm

Either a Sony factory suddenly exploded and they are covering it up and nobody has noticed that PS3 shipments have mostly stopped, or Sony is still making 20,000 units daily and everybody is buying shoe polish instead and PS3s are acumulating like crazy on those BestBuy back rooms where they hide all the Toshibas.

Or the counter got "adjusted".

Inertia is a very hard thing to overcome. How did we go from 20,000+ to 8,000 units in 5 days?

discuss

[Petra]

...by the way this same post didn't last one minute in blu-ray AVS forum. It was deleted!!

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21577

According to an official statement from communications boss David Karraker, the company is still on track to ship one million PS3 consoles by the end of the year, with new stocks being supplied on a constant basis.

"While initial day-one launch shipment goals weren�t achievable due to early manufacturing issues, those problems have been resolved and we do remain focused on having one million PS3s in the pipeline by December 31, 2006," Karraker said.

"We will continue to utilise airfreight delivery for PlayStation 3 to assure a steady stream of systems for North American consumers through the end of the year."

[Blackraven]

I do hope so and pray that Sony at least makes this target.

I just hope though that the 5-6 million figure would be achieved for end-March 2007.

But at least this should lessen my fears.

[Blu-ray San]

all new technology will have it's impact on console launches, but Sony was smart to wait for bluray tech and it will be the key to their success int he industry and future.

I expected 1 million to be shipped by years end so to have Sony actually confirm it is no suprise.

Playstation 3's are showing up at my local stores weekly and they are becoming easier to get.

[dialog_gvf]

It should be pointed out that Sony has a poor track record with hitting targets on the PS/3. Every projection so far has fallen well short. I want to see them actually hit just ONE of them before I really trust what they are saying going forward:

Spring 2006
2/4 million
1/2 million
400K/1 million

285K/???

Gary

P.S. I know, rather negative of me. But Sony would have buried HD DVD if they had lived up to promises.

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

It should be pointed out that Sony has a poor track record with hitting targets on the PS/3. Every projection so far has fallen well short. I want to see them actually hit just ONE of them before I really trust what they are saying going forward:

Spring 2006
2/4 million
1/2 million
400K/1 million

285K/???

Gary

P.S. I know, rather negative of me. But Sony would have buried HD DVD if they had lived up to promises.

Waah, now you're starting to make me worried again

Current statistics at the nextgenwars.com site point out to 422k units sold (as of time of post). That's only an 8k difference. It's very scary.

Way far from the 21k daily average that someone else posted yesterday.

Remember, if Sony sells anything less than 1 million by year end, it would indeed leave a bad taste in this console war. It also lessens chances of making the 5-6 million for fiscal year of 06 (unless Sony can create a miracle by increasing production by AT LEAST two-fold by January 1st, 2007 onwards).

Remember, Sony CANNOT afford to sell lower than their 5-6 million fiscal year-end target as it is EXTREMELY CRITICIAL date.

Thus, everything will be decided by March 31st, 2007. It's either a make-or-break for Sony so they MUST NOT screw up this time.

You hear me Sony?

Please for everyone's sake. Please fulfill your respective sales targets of:

-1 million (AT LEAST) for Dec. 31, 2006
-5-6 million (AT LEAST) for March 31, 2007

Kindly do all of us a favor and not screw up for the sake of your customers and Playstation fans worldwide.

Please we're begging you.

[WriteSimply]

It's really not up to the boys and girls at the plant. It's up to the boys and girls at the blue-violet laser diode plant.

The other parts are easy. That one tiny laser is hard.


fuad

[JonasK]

Who is more trustworthy, nexgenwars.com or vgcharts.org ?

According to http://nexgenwars.com/

XBOX 360
8.32m

Wii
1.31m

PS3
0.42m

According to http://vgcharts.org/

XBOX 360, total 6.21m
0.22m Japan
4.26m Americas
1.73m Others

Wii, total 1.70m
0.59m Japan
0.88m Americas
0.23m Others

PS3, total 0.59m
0.26m Japan
0.33m Americas
0.00m Others

[Petra]

I don't know which one is more trustworthy, but this I know...

MS said they shipped 6 million X360 by the end of Oct. And NPD said MS sold 500K X360 in November

[Maximus]

VGCharts is more reliable.

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

VGCharts is more reliable.

If so, then I'm gonna start shifting to that site.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

If so, then I'm gonna start shifting to that site.

IMO the problem with nextgenwars is that they don't cite nay sources, whereas VGCharts name ll of their sources and tell us how their numbers are achieved. With nextgenwars it is left to us to guess how they get their numbers. Anecdotally the the theories I have seen for how they calculate numbers ranges from 'about doubling US sales = worldwide sales' and 'they have industry insiders who give info on sales', so its all guesswork over there.