DVD will be around nearly as long as VHS...

[tron3]

DVD will be around nearly as long as VHS... Why? Because like VHS, it finally became cheap enough to own, and DVD's don't really go bad sitting in on a shelf. I have tapes 18 years old that are still playable. (Even after exposure to summers of HEAT.) Thank you, 3M! With minor scratches DVD is still virtually a life time recording.

VHS may be around around at least another 10+ years before people convert their tapes and haul them to the trash. Any new technoly takes about 50 years to get fully implemented by society. Even cell phones still has untapped markets.

Face it, people who adopt HD TV have the money (or sacrifice) to own one. They are the only penetrable market because blu-ray is pretty much wasted on SDTV. (Standard Definition TV)

The best thing to do with blu-ray recorders/players is to offer a MUCH better price then when the first DVD players/recorders came out. 99% of America has a TV and that is a HUGE market for DVD. Many still don't own DVD. With the martket for blu-ray being so small, they will have to swallow some of that R&D cost and make it up in market share.

First to market doesn't mean BEST on market. And I'm not bothered by the higher capacity blu-ray's I'll see by 2010. I may not even buy a recorder before that time. Like most people, we will buy players that are locked in to support a few formats for playing movies. And THAT will be the standard that I'm going to worry about.

Higher capacity blu-rays have their place. Great for PC backup, and added value content on movies we buy. But unless they support a TV with 2048 lines of of horizonatal resolution, that exta space doesn't do anything more for my movies.

All you other technology droolers who live for the "bleeding edge" should learn the lesson I have learned. WAIT FOR A STANDARD!