Consumers delaying blu purchases

[Bobby Henderson]

I also have to chime in too on the whiny price complaints.

Look at the value of the U.S. Dollar. One dollar in 2008 value is worth only about 2/3 the value the dollar held in 1999. And back then, most DVDs were priced well over $20. The equivalent of that value would be over $30 in today's value. Even when The Matrix was released on DVD at an astonishing sub-$15 price, that price now would be over $20 in today's dollars.

People also need to shop around. They have only themselves to blame if they impulse buy a BD at Sam Goody's or FYE for full MSRP. The front page of this web site usually has links to BD bargains at Amazon.com.

Not every movie on Blu-ray costs $30 or more. I've been buying most of mine from Amazon and often paying under $20 for them. I've also bought some Blu-ray discs at stores like Wal-Mart or Best Buy when certain movies had pricing specials on them. I bought The Departed and Crimson Tide on Blu-ray at Best Buy for $15 each. Those are cheap prices for good discs.

Originally Posted by aviman33

Consumers know very well what they want, and HD isn't high on their list. If on their list at all. I don't get you guys with the "if they see it, they'll love it" mentality. They might love it, and tell all their friends about your system. But to them it's frivolous and not worth the cost.

If that sentiment was actually true then this web site and others relating to HD-quality entertainment wouldn't even exist. I wouldn't be seeing the major upgrades taking place for my satellite TV service. The Blu-ray format itself wouldn't be trending upwards in sales rates either.

[aviman33]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

If that sentiment was actually true then this web site and others relating to HD-quality entertainment wouldn't even exist. I wouldn't be seeing the major upgrades taking place for my satellite TV service. The Blu-ray format itself wouldn't be trending upwards in sales rates either.

Because we are the lunatic fringe. We are the few who really appreciate the experience of quality audio and video reproduction. I'm not a whiner, I'm just a realist.

[fighthefutureofhd]

very true. and think about what will happen when the masses do adopt blu-ray. will the quality stay or will it actually go down. let's face the reality of it all. the masses don't give a crap about quality video and auido, pq, and all that stuff. they just want to watch the movie. they don't care about anything else. i got a bad feeling that if blu-ray goes to the masses it will at the expense of quality that many are already complaining about with releases like speed racer.

[Anthony P]

Because we are the lunatic fringe. We are the few who really appreciate the experience of quality audio and video reproduction. I'm not a whiner, I'm just a realist.

reading your posts realist is not even close to what I would use to describe you.

[Anthony P]

(the state of the economy is showing early signs of stagflation... that scares people into waiting regardless of it actually happening is one part of the story),

but traditionally bad economy means boon for entertainment and small home improvements. When you have a tighter budget you give up the fancy 10,000$ or 5,000$ vacation for the family but you need to replace it with something else so maybe a pool or a new TV or some movies to watch.... when you spend more time at home and you are depressed you want to make your home a bit better.

[ThePhantomOak]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

but traditionally bad economy means boon for entertainment and small home improvements. When you have a tighter budget you give up the fancy 10,000$ or 5,000$ vacation for the family but you need to replace it with something else so maybe a pool or a new TV or some movies to watch.... when you spend more time at home and you are depressed you want to make your home a bit better.

That is true, but most of the time when house sales go down, remodels pick up. In the last 5 years that has not been the case at all... but does explain why BD has been doing so well.

I used to work at a place where the old man said "when there are Mammoth's we hunt Mammoth (highrise construction) when the Mammoth are out of season, we pick berries." It seems like now, for residential construction (at least according to the last few dozen FED meetings) that the Mammoths are scarce and Berries are out of season.

Somehow, though, BD's are doing very very well (look at DVD adoption, and you cant be upset with BD adoption). I am just saying that if you want it to do even better, the situation needs to change. It will not happen from telling people that the price is the same as $20 10 years ago...




BD is not having a problem, but if it wants to do better, something needs to change (IMO the economy more than BD price)

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by The Phantom Oak

$15 in 1999 is the same as $18.67 in 2007 (the last year of data I would trust until the end of the year). ($19.70 in 2008 dollars per the BLS)

Inflationary figures from the U.S. government are highly suspect and quite inaccurate. Such figures are spun through a "rose colored glasses" prism to help the stock market as much as possible. Much of the dollar's value is pegged to the price of gold, which has shot up enormously in price per ounce just over the last couple of years. The dollar is performing badly against other developed nation currencies which only makes matters worse. It's part of what has tripled the cost of gasoline in the last 6 years and doubled the price of a gallon of milk.

Originally Posted by The Phantom Oak

Further, you are absolutly WRONG about shopping around. You assume everyone has time to shop around for everything that they buy. I have 25 BD's and have paid an average of $14.71. That does not mean that they are 14.71 for the average buyer.

I'm not budging. And I am not going to have one ounce of sympathy over the laziness of people.

No one has to pay full MSRP for a Blu-ray movie if they bother shopping around. They can get bargains if they bother to look for them. If they don't want to make any effort in that area then they don't need to whine either. Also, if a customer feels some movie is over-priced they shouldn't buy it. I have only a couple of Fox BD titles in my collection because I feel Fox charges too much money for their discs. I'm not paying $27 for a bare bones single disc BD movie. I'll find a different title to buy. When Fox pulls its head out of its butt and prices their titles better then I may buy more of them, but not until then.

The pricing on Blu-ray isn't any different than many thousands of other products. The people who are willing to shop around are going to stretch their dollars a lot farther than lazy people who buy the product at the first place they see it displayed.

Originally Posted by The Phantom Oak

Has it crossed your mind that MOST consumers want something easy and in their budget or not at all? only a small niche of buyers look for deals, the rest wait until they dont have to look for deals.

Lazy people aren't going to get bargains if they insist on impulse buying a product they want. If they have serious budget concerns it makes it even more important for them to search for bargains rather than being stupidly lazy by just buying an over-priced product at first glance.

Originally Posted by The Phantom Oak

Maybe most people would rather look for deals on gas and food?

Blu-ray discs are a leisure/entertainment item, not a necessity like food and fuel. There is no mandatory reason for movie studios to provide Blu-ray discs at dirt cheap, loss leader prices. If someone insists on paying only $7 for a movie disc then he's only going to be buying old DVD movies for quite some time to come.

Of course, inflationary effects have been extreme in the areas of food and fuel -extreme enough that the idiots running Wall Street right now conveniently remove food and fuel costs from their inflation figures. Their "core CPI" figure is nothing but naive, blindly optimistic hokum.

Even still, people can save money on both food and fuel. Some gas stations give discounts for buying in cash (to do away with the 2%-3% credit card surcharge). Americans have to eat out less and buy more in the way of fruits and vegetables at the grocery store. Just make sure to wash off the stuff before you eat it. No telling how much cow shit run-off Mexican fruit and vegetable growers will allow to flow over crops.

[Anthony P]

That is true, but most of the time when house sales go down, remodels pick up. In the last 5 years that has not been the case at all... but does explain why BD has been doing so well.

I think the issue with housing is that many people (when prices where way too high) where buying more home then they could afford. I also think that what also happened was that the rest of the people where improving on their existing homes instead of looking to upgrade to better /bigger homes (for example a few blocks from here someone added a story to his existing home). I think those high prices created an artificial high renovation demand and also soaked up demand (you don't redo a kitchen every year or two). I don't know about where you live and not 100% sure for here either but construction/renovation has not gone bad, but it does not look like a bump either but that is because many already spent on renovating and don't need big things now. (but even then none of the people that I know in the construction business are not busy).

It will not happen from telling people that the price is the same as $20 10 years ago...

agree, I don't think any one cares what they paid for 10 years ago. So telling people anything about 10 years ago (or 5 or 20) is useless. I also agree that people spend what they think their wallet can afford (and some do it very conservatively while others very badly). And if it is less now (because housing is so much more expensive and gas is a lot more….) then it does not matter if it is cheaper.

On the other hand I agree with Bobby all this constant whining from people (and I don’t mean you in particular) of how expensive BD is, is tedious and boring, so he is right in pointing out that this is just normal and it is not extremely expensive as some would portray it.

[Bullseye]

There are plenty of DVD players which are more expensive than Blu Ray players. Its the movie prices which will sway people IMO. I was at Zavvi over the weekend and picked up 4 BDs at a very decent price. In most cases the BD was only two or three euro more expensive. Well worth the price difference. And some SE DVDs were more expensive than BDs. Go figure.

[ThePhantomOak]

You are partly correct...

$15 in 1999 is the same as $18.67 in 2007 (the last year of data I would trust until the end of the year). ($19.70 in 2008 dollars per the BLS)

BUT, that does not tell the whole story... (the state of the economy is showing early signs of stagflation... that scares people into waiting regardless of it actually happening is one part of the story), so as the real price comes down, the real burdon can go up. Remember, in the last 10 years 99% of Americans have increased their income an average of 1%, and inflation in the last year has been between 4.5 and 7%... that means that REAL income has gone WAY down. (The latest Economist has that data, if you care to look)

Further, you are absolutly WRONG about shopping around. You assume everyone has time to shop around for everything that they buy. I have 25 BD's and have paid an average of $14.71. That does not mean that they are 14.71 for the average buyer. Telling them to "shop around" is like telling them, "is the picture and sound worth the price you might get if you spend your free time shopping around"

Has it crossed your mind that MOST consumers want something easy and in their budget or not at all? only a small niche of buyers look for deals, the rest wait until they dont have to look for deals.

Maybe most people would rather look for deals on gas and food?



Bottom line, $15 in 1999 adjusted for the amount income has gone up for 99% of Americans is $16.24 but prices have gone up to $19.70.

So, lets say the average DVD came out at $25-30 MSRP back in 1999
Today the price should be $27-32.40 with the income increase, or $32.84-39.40 (about what BD's MSRP for) with price increase... Not good for consumers at all when the real price is increasing faster than real income.


(the top 1% of Americans have seen income rise over 20%)

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

I also have to chime in too on the whiny price complaints.

Look at the value of the U.S. Dollar. One dollar in 2008 value is worth only about 2/3 the value the dollar held in 1999. And back then, most DVDs were priced well over $20. The equivalent of that value would be over $30 in today's value. Even when The Matrix was released on DVD at an astonishing sub-$15 price, that price now would be over $20 in today's dollars.

People also need to shop around. They have only themselves to blame if they impulse buy a BD at Sam Goody's or FYE for full MSRP. The front page of this web site usually has links to BD bargains at Amazon.com.

Not every movie on Blu-ray costs $30 or more. I've been buying most of mine from Amazon and often paying under $20 for them. I've also bought some Blu-ray discs at stores like Wal-Mart or Best Buy when certain movies had pricing specials on them. I bought The Departed and Crimson Tide on Blu-ray at Best Buy for $15 each. Those are cheap prices for good discs.