M$ Counting on HD-DVD's demise - Page 3 - Blu-ray Forum

Weez_Dawg · 06-12-2007, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

they are trying to come with something more convenient

verizon and comcast both have whispered about this

I have to admit this would be tempting as my wife can download as much as our hard drive can hold and AND COPY ALL THE MEDIA SHE DOWNLOADS TO A CD!!!!

The Don · 06-12-2007, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weez_Dawg

I have to admit this would be tempting as my wife can download as much as our hard drive can hold and AND COPY ALL THE MEDIA SHE DOWNLOADS TO A CD!!!!

yeah...they are trying to find a way to restrict us and still make it seem like they are offering us a great deal..

HDTV1080P · 06-12-2007, 05:08 PM

For high quality HDTV downloads to become a reality and popular we need the following things to occur.

High Speed Internet connections of 100Mbits or more so 50GB movies can be downloaded within minutes. Verizon FIOS and improved cable modems will provide this speed one day.
After purchasing the movie for download the movie studios will need to allow consumers to burn the movie to a 50GB blank BLU-RAY disc which can last 100+ years. Many hard drives fail in 5-10 years and optical media will last 100+ years under ideal conditions.
This is the most important part. Studios need to offer a discount on all HDTV downloaded movies compared to packaged media. If consumers are going to spend the money to purchase a blank BLU-RAY disc and take the time to download a HDTV movie then they need to offer the consumer a discount on the purchase.

Downloading high quality HDTV might be the future in 5 years but I still think many consumers will want to own or rent packaged media. For example consumers can purchase music today and download it. Downloading music has not replaced the CD audio format yet. CD’s can still be purchased at local music stores. It might take 20 years to replace packaged media if it is every replaced.
Maybe one day in the far future there will not be any more books, CD’s DVD’s, or any form of package media made. Everything will be electronic. We will all own portable wireless electronic book players and media players.

Weez_Dawg · 06-12-2007, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

yeah...they are trying to find a way to restrict us and still make it seem like they are offering us a great deal..

One day they will see that the only way to keep people from stealing there stuff is to offer us a better deal for a price, until then everything is doomed to fail or be mediocre

The Don · 06-12-2007, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

For high quality HDTV downloads to become a reality and popular we need the following things to occur.

High Speed Internet connections of 100Mbits or more so 50GB movies can be downloaded within minutes. Verizon FIOS and improved cable modems will provide this speed one day.
After purchasing the movie for download the movie studios will need to allow consumers to burn the movie to a 50GB blank BLU-RAY disc which can last 100+ years. Many hard drives fail in 5-10 years and optical media will last 100+ years under ideal conditions.
This is the most important part. Studios need to offer a discount on all HDTV downloaded movies compared to packaged media. If consumers are going to spend the money to purchase a blank BLU-RAY disc and take the time to download a HDTV movie then they need to offer the consumer a discount on the purchase.

Downloading high quality HDTV might be the future in 5 years but I still think many consumers will want to own or rent packaged media. For example consumers can purchase music today and download it. Downloading music has not replaced the CD audio format yet. CD’s can still be purchased at local music stores. It might take 20 years to replace packaged media if it is every replaced.
Maybe one day in the far future there will not be any more books, CD’s DVD’s, or any form of package media made. Everything will be electronic. We will all own portable wireless electronic book players and media players.

this isn't convenient for the average customer....at this point in time and will take even longer then it would for BD to be accepted...

they would have to make this extremely convenient..

and on top of that...MS just wants to control this format...

they are basically playing as a mole in the high-def disc market trying to ruin it and make their 'new format'...(as I've been figuring) look superior...

Weez_Dawg · 06-12-2007, 05:16 PM

I think the term for M$ is "a bridge to far". We will get to the point of just downloads in my lifetime, but not in the next 5 or even 10 years. And I am sure 20 years later when we have our "download players" for our "4400P" tvs the players will still have a port for media that is tangible that we buy at a store of some kind.

MatrixS2000 · 06-12-2007, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

For high quality HDTV downloads to become a reality and popular we need the following things to occur.

High Speed Internet connections of 100Mbits or more so 50GB movies can be downloaded within minutes. Verizon FIOS and improved cable modems will provide this speed one day.
After purchasing the movie for download the movie studios will need to allow consumers to burn the movie to a 50GB blank BLU-RAY disc which can last 100+ years. Many hard drives fail in 5-10 years and optical media will last 100+ years under ideal conditions.
This is the most important part. Studios need to offer a discount on all HDTV downloaded movies compared to packaged media. If consumers are going to spend the money to purchase a blank BLU-RAY disc and take the time to download a HDTV movie then they need to offer the consumer a discount on the purchase.

Downloading high quality HDTV might be the future in 5 years but I still think many consumers will want to own or rent packaged media. For example consumers can purchase music today and download it. Downloading music has not replaced the CD audio format yet. CD’s can still be purchased at local music stores. It might take 20 years to replace packaged media if it is every replaced.
Maybe one day in the far future there will not be any more books, CD’s DVD’s, or any form of package media made. Everything will be electronic. We will all own portable wireless electronic book players and media players.

1 - download would STILL take about an hour IF I had full 100Mb/s right to the download location and the server(s) had the processing power to feed it to me that fast.

2 - Wow - so I can burn a copy for my buddies? How would they limit the number of times I burn it?

3 - Who knows what the future holds, today BD is the best medium to deliver HD to the home.

The Don · 06-12-2007, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weez_Dawg

I think the term for M$ is "a bridge to far". We will get to the point of just downloads in my lifetime, but not in the next 5 or even 10 years. And I am sure 20 years later when we have our "download players" for our "4400P" tvs the players will still have a port for media that is tangible that we buy at a store of some kind.

honestly, everything keeps changing faster and faster....

just think about where we were 10 years ago...or even just 5 years ago...

10 years from now?....I don't think the narrowminded MS can even see that far...let alone 20 years....

so things will probably be more convenient for downloads at that point...but I really hope that MS doesn't lead the way for downloads as they will ruin everything..

Weez_Dawg · 06-12-2007, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

honestly, everything keeps changing faster and faster....

just think about where we were 10 years ago...or even just 5 years ago...

10 years from now?....I don't think the narrowminded MS can even see that far...let alone 20 years....

so things will probably be more convenient for downloads at that point...but I really hope that MS doesn't lead the way for downloads as they will ruin everything..

I remember 10 years ago, and I have to say that we have come along way in some aspects, but in others we are at a stand still. My bestfriend used to work at BB back then and would always tell me about HDTV's and such and on regular TV channels it would say "brodcast in HD". Didn't know what it was then but I know just a little more now. Video games really have not come that far, they just look better now. I remember high speed internet was 300kps which is faster than most peoples speed now.

The Don · 06-12-2007, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weez_Dawg

I remember 10 years ago, and I have to say that we have come along way in some aspects, but in others we are at a stand still. My bestfriend used to work at BB back then and would always tell me about HDTV's and such and on regular TV channels it would say "brodcast in HD". Didn't know what it was then but I know just a little more now. Video games really have not come that far, they just look better now. I remember high speed internet was 300kps which is faster than most peoples speed now.

alot of people I know own dsl and aren't even big on computers...it's just become a standard because they have kids or need it for one reason or another without tying up the phone line...

we have stood still in some respects, but something like HDTV has come a long way as it was over 30,000.00 to own a HDTV when it 1st came out and now it's almost the standard...

it would be kind of hard to change-over to a completely new format since this has never been done since the creation of the television, they have only upped broadcast quality and flat-screen...etc. etc.

not a whole entire new format....so this should take about 10 years or so to be the standard...

aaronwt · 06-12-2007, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ps3andlovinit

1. How do you get them back when your device dies or move them to another device that comes out with better quality etc?

2. Let's say in 3 years from now it dies and you have 100Gb's accumulated by that point..what's the process.

So technically you might be right but practically you might be wrong. Also not sure how I use that media in other places I may want to. If it's physical I can take it to the cottage regardless if connected..

You remove the hard drive and take it to your 360 at your cottage.

aaronwt · 06-12-2007, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

For high quality HDTV downloads to become a reality and popular we need the following things to occur.

High Speed Internet connections of 100Mbits or more so 50GB movies can be downloaded within minutes. Verizon FIOS and improved cable modems will provide this speed one day.
After purchasing the movie for download the movie studios will need to allow consumers to burn the movie to a 50GB blank BLU-RAY disc which can last 100+ years. Many hard drives fail in 5-10 years and optical media will last 100+ years under ideal conditions.
This is the most important part. Studios need to offer a discount on all HDTV downloaded movies compared to packaged media. If consumers are going to spend the money to purchase a blank BLU-RAY disc and take the time to download a HDTV movie then they need to offer the consumer a discount on the purchase.

Downloading high quality HDTV might be the future in 5 years but I still think many consumers will want to own or rent packaged media. For example consumers can purchase music today and download it. Downloading music has not replaced the CD audio format yet. CD’s can still be purchased at local music stores. It might take 20 years to replace packaged media if it is every replaced.
Maybe one day in the far future there will not be any more books, CD’s DVD’s, or any form of package media made. Everything will be electronic. We will all own portable wireless electronic book players and media players.

I'm not going to be keeping my HD DVd/BD media for 100 years, probably 10 to 15 at the most. Maybe less than 10 years, you never know. DVD didn't even make it to 10 years for me. I started getting DVDs in 1998 and I'm going to trash or sell 99% of them later this year. The media i used the longest was records and CDs.

bluflu · 06-12-2007, 06:09 PM

Enough with the "M$" comments.

reiella · 06-13-2007, 01:47 AM

5 to 10 years is optimistic I think.

FiOS and other such technologies are going to deploy in that timeframe in the major areas, but we still have areas that aren't even serviced by ISDN let alone DSL.

I can see it happening, but I doubt it. I also doubt that applying software as a service to home movie playback is going to be a successful venture for quite some time.

Alot of people just want that physical disk.

boweyang · 06-13-2007, 06:02 AM

I didnt realize this until after I started my new job but I believe that downloadable movies will be here in less than 5 years. I work at Corning which right now are working on fiber optic cables like crazy. There are a bunch more details, but here is a summary of what I am taoking about. This may not hinder Blu-ray (I dont think it will) for a while, but if this format war does not end soon, we may see the end of Blu-ray.

WAIT, scratch that. Blu-ray will be here a good while simply because of the PS3 and HDDUD wont because it is not an availible medium for games on the 360. According to my theory, the only way they can make blu-ray possible on a xbox is if they introduce a new system (revolution, 720)

or offer a drive as an addon, which if it cant use the hddvd addon for games, then the drive will also only play movies.

Or even worse, they will use the high speed connect to simply make games downloadable in 5 to 25 minutes if they were 25 GB.

But all of those ideas are bad ideas when you think of their reputation.

Anyway, I just want to get word out if anyone didnt know that high speed internet through fiber optics is coming faster than you may think.

I almost forgot, eventhough some of you may give me hate comments, id rather get honest comments than no comments on this issue.

MrBogey · 06-13-2007, 06:08 AM

Well I work for someone who uses those fibers. I don't see it happening in less than 5 years. A lot of necessary backbone infrastructure has to be overhauled and that's where a lot of the capital improvements are going right now. Once a lot of it's set up it'll be a snap. But there's still too much in the way before it becomes common place.

America's telecom structure took almost a 100 years to place. It ain't gonna be replaced in 5 years.

Ascended_Saiyan · 06-13-2007, 06:29 AM

Fiber optics is the way to boost transmission speeds to the level where 1080p w/ lossless audio downloads can be a comfortable reality. The problem is the "last mile" (getting fiber from the major junctures to neighborhood to homes). That's been the problem for the last 7+ years. The Bell companies (Southwestern Bell Company, NYNEX, BellSouth, Pac Bell...owned by SBC, etc) are experimenting with "last mile" solutions like EPON, GPON, and WiMAX. The costs are enormous for such ventures. It will take quite some time to implement these solutions (WiMAX would be the fastest since it is a wireless technology). They should be ready to go at the end of Blu-ray's lifecycle (if not...a little before). Test areas will start to pop up in a while with much faster speeds (like Verizon's optical service in Texas), but even then servers aren't able to handle those types of connection speeds per user. Basically, we are talking about a major overhaul to the US servers and "last mile" connections. It's a long road.

Ascended_Saiyan · 06-13-2007, 06:40 AM

^^ That being said...HD downloadable movies (720p) are already here in some form. MS Xbox Live service allows for one to do this w/ crappy sound of course.

MS goal is to take over the download space for movies. That is why they are supporting the Kamikaze format (HD DVD). It's not meant to win, it's just meant to take both formats out of contention or co-exist. Of course, Toshiba's hoping for HD DVD to survive along with Blu-ray, but not MS. It's a slim possibility of co-existence but that's all it is.

Sorry for the extra post. I'm using the PS3.

dtrush · 06-13-2007, 06:48 AM

We already have Fiber running to peoples residence here in Murray, UT.
http://mstarmetro.net/offerings/fastestnet-chart.php
The Upload/Download speeds are 15Mbps on residential service.
Businesses (which I subscribe to at work) is set at 30Mbps Up/Down. My service is provisioned at 100Mbps but I haven't got the correct box to get that kind of speed off it. There are 100 Gig/Month caps of transfer and then it's like $1/Gig overage. I doubt it's even monitored right now though because we haven't been notified of any problems yet

Anyways, I just can't see the sense in downloading movies & saving them to hard drives for playback later. Hard drives are only useful IMHO in Tivo/PVR/PS3 type devices for viewing something once or twice and then just deleting. It just seems like too much a waste of time to wait for it to download when you want to see it again.

Blu-Ray discs and other type media are great because you can watch the content NOW, or you can loan it out to a friend, or take it somewhere to share.

GasCat · 06-13-2007, 07:08 AM

I read this story and wanted to share it. I agree with the writers premise.

"Microsoft could have stopped the Blu-ray/HD DVD war"
http://blog.scifi.com/tech/archives/...microsoft.html

06-12-2007, 05:08 PM	#43
HDTV1080P Blu-ray Champion Top contributor Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews: 205	For high quality HDTV downloads to become a reality and popular we need the following things to occur. High Speed Internet connections of 100Mbits or more so 50GB movies can be downloaded within minutes. Verizon FIOS and improved cable modems will provide this speed one day. After purchasing the movie for download the movie studios will need to allow consumers to burn the movie to a 50GB blank BLU-RAY disc which can last 100+ years. Many hard drives fail in 5-10 years and optical media will last 100+ years under ideal conditions. This is the most important part. Studios need to offer a discount on all HDTV downloaded movies compared to packaged media. If consumers are going to spend the money to purchase a blank BLU-RAY disc and take the time to download a HDTV movie then they need to offer the consumer a discount on the purchase. Downloading high quality HDTV might be the future in 5 years but I still think many consumers will want to own or rent packaged media. For example consumers can purchase music today and download it. Downloading music has not replaced the CD audio format yet. CD’s can still be purchased at local music stores. It might take 20 years to replace packaged media if it is every replaced. Maybe one day in the far future there will not be any more books, CD’s DVD’s, or any form of package media made. Everything will be electronic. We will all own portable wireless electronic book players and media players.

06-12-2007, 06:09 PM	#53
bluflu Special Member Member since:Mar 2007	Take it easy on Microsoft Enough with the "M$" comments.

06-13-2007, 06:02 AM	#55
boweyang Member Member since:May 2006 Location:North Carolina	A thought on MSFTs true motive... I didnt realize this until after I started my new job but I believe that downloadable movies will be here in less than 5 years. I work at Corning which right now are working on fiber optic cables like crazy. There are a bunch more details, but here is a summary of what I am taoking about. This may not hinder Blu-ray (I dont think it will) for a while, but if this format war does not end soon, we may see the end of Blu-ray. WAIT, scratch that. Blu-ray will be here a good while simply because of the PS3 and HDDUD wont because it is not an availible medium for games on the 360. According to my theory, the only way they can make blu-ray possible on a xbox is if they introduce a new system (revolution, 720) or offer a drive as an addon, which if it cant use the hddvd addon for games, then the drive will also only play movies. Or even worse, they will use the high speed connect to simply make games downloadable in 5 to 25 minutes if they were 25 GB. But all of those ideas are bad ideas when you think of their reputation. Anyway, I just want to get word out if anyone didnt know that high speed internet through fiber optics is coming faster than you may think. I almost forgot, eventhough some of you may give me hate comments, id rather get honest comments than no comments on this issue. Last edited by boweyang; 06-13-2007 at 06:11 AM. Reason: Forgot something

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06-12-2007, 05:16 PM	#46
Weez_Dawg Active Member Member since:Apr 2007 Location:New Mexico	I think the term for M$ is "a bridge to far". We will get to the point of just downloads in my lifetime, but not in the next 5 or even 10 years. And I am sure 20 years later when we have our "download players" for our "4400P" tvs the players will still have a port for media that is tangible that we buy at a store of some kind.

06-13-2007, 01:47 AM	#54
reiella Blu-ray Guru Member since:Dec 2006 Home Theater Gallery:1 Blu-ray collection:237 DVD collection:1	5 to 10 years is optimistic I think. FiOS and other such technologies are going to deploy in that timeframe in the major areas, but we still have areas that aren't even serviced by ISDN let alone DSL. I can see it happening, but I doubt it. I also doubt that applying software as a service to home movie playback is going to be a successful venture for quite some time. Alot of people just want that physical disk.

06-13-2007, 06:08 AM	#56
MrBogey Expert Member Member since:Jan 2007	Well I work for someone who uses those fibers. I don't see it happening in less than 5 years. A lot of necessary backbone infrastructure has to be overhauled and that's where a lot of the capital improvements are going right now. Once a lot of it's set up it'll be a snap. But there's still too much in the way before it becomes common place. America's telecom structure took almost a 100 years to place. It ain't gonna be replaced in 5 years.

06-13-2007, 06:29 AM	#57
Ascended_Saiyan Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Sep 2006 Location:Atlanta, Georgia Blu-ray collection:608 Trading Score:1	Fiber optics is the way to boost transmission speeds to the level where 1080p w/ lossless audio downloads can be a comfortable reality. The problem is the "last mile" (getting fiber from the major junctures to neighborhood to homes). That's been the problem for the last 7+ years. The Bell companies (Southwestern Bell Company, NYNEX, BellSouth, Pac Bell...owned by SBC, etc) are experimenting with "last mile" solutions like EPON, GPON, and WiMAX. The costs are enormous for such ventures. It will take quite some time to implement these solutions (WiMAX would be the fastest since it is a wireless technology). They should be ready to go at the end of Blu-ray's lifecycle (if not...a little before). Test areas will start to pop up in a while with much faster speeds (like Verizon's optical service in Texas), but even then servers aren't able to handle those types of connection speeds per user. Basically, we are talking about a major overhaul to the US servers and "last mile" connections. It's a long road.

06-13-2007, 06:40 AM	#58
Ascended_Saiyan Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Sep 2006 Location:Atlanta, Georgia Blu-ray collection:608 Trading Score:1	^^ That being said...HD downloadable movies (720p) are already here in some form. MS Xbox Live service allows for one to do this w/ crappy sound of course. MS goal is to take over the download space for movies. That is why they are supporting the Kamikaze format (HD DVD). It's not meant to win, it's just meant to take both formats out of contention or co-exist. Of course, Toshiba's hoping for HD DVD to survive along with Blu-ray, but not MS. It's a slim possibility of co-existence but that's all it is. Sorry for the extra post. I'm using the PS3.

06-13-2007, 06:48 AM	#59
dtrush Active Member Member since:Feb 2007 Location:Sandy, UT U.S.A. Blu-ray reviews:1	We already have Fiber running to peoples residence here in Murray, UT. http://mstarmetro.net/offerings/fastestnet-chart.php The Upload/Download speeds are 15Mbps on residential service. Businesses (which I subscribe to at work) is set at 30Mbps Up/Down. My service is provisioned at 100Mbps but I haven't got the correct box to get that kind of speed off it. There are 100 Gig/Month caps of transfer and then it's like $1/Gig overage. I doubt it's even monitored right now though because we haven't been notified of any problems yet Anyways, I just can't see the sense in downloading movies & saving them to hard drives for playback later. Hard drives are only useful IMHO in Tivo/PVR/PS3 type devices for viewing something once or twice and then just deleting. It just seems like too much a waste of time to wait for it to download when you want to see it again. Blu-Ray discs and other type media are great because you can watch the content NOW, or you can loan it out to a friend, or take it somewhere to share.

06-13-2007, 07:08 AM	#60
GasCat Special Member Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	I read this story and wanted to share it. I agree with the writers premise. "Microsoft could have stopped the Blu-ray/HD DVD war" http://blog.scifi.com/tech/archives/...microsoft.html

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