2015 UHD player prices?

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

Even though they're calling it an extension there is still a lot of new technology and chipsets and each component manufacturer is going to want to recoup their own R&D for their product.

There is also probably higher licensing costs. Don't expect these players to be cheap. My guess is that profit margins are unbelievably slim on current BD players, especially those priced below $100. UHD players are going to be far more expensive, especially at launch. Consumer expectations for cheap players are absurd, IMO. We've really been spoiled by Chinese manufacturing. The amount of technology packed into a modern BD player is really amazing. If you think about it, just the WiFi connection that exists in most players should be priced at least $40.

[Frank@Chicago]

My best guess:

Players for $500-$600, 10-15 titles at launch, and movies for $30-$40 (depending on newness).

With no established player base and no game console support, it will be a *rough* launch.

Oh, and they will probably chicken out and let the launch slip to Spring of next year...

[Derb]

Players, like um name brands should be around $200 & discs (New) $20 (Catalog) $15

If not, epic fail.

[Geoff D]

Originally Posted by Frank@Chicago

My best guess:

Players for $500-$600, 10-15 titles at launch, and movies for $30-$40 (depending on newness).

With no established player base and no game console support, it will be a *rough* launch.

Oh, and they will probably chicken out and let the launch slip to Spring of next year...

I'd say that's pretty much spot on, Frankie. I never thought we were ever gonna get some massive media blitz this year anyway, it was always gonna be CES 2016 where UHD BD would really get shouted about - but an actual slip to 2016 for the launch in general wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[steve1971]

For 4K Blu ray players to be successful and for 4K in general they better push and promote the hell out of it, at least a hell of alot better then they did Blu ray because if they dont then it will spell the end for 4K. If player prices are high and if they turn around and say "We have delayed it until 2016" then it wont bode well for 4K's future. Manufacturers have promised 4K Blu ray player releases at the end of the year and I hope they stick to that promise because if they dont then all hell will break loose because the 4K adopters will lose their minds. Me? I could care either way but if promises arent kept I will feel bad for those who went out and bought 4K tv's and I seriously mean that. Already people who have bought 4K tv's are not happy because they have these big expensive tv's with nothing really to take advantage of the tech and its time these manufacturers deliver as promised. The end of 2015 should be very interesting.

[rdodolak]

I wonder if manufacturers will be phasing out DVD players given Blu-ray players already provide support for the format. This would reduce the cost of carrying and designing a much larger array of players. Not to mention shelf space seems to be at a premium these days in brick and mortar stores.

Once UHD BD players settle down I could see them doing the same thing with standard BD players given UHD BD players will be backwards compatible.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

I wonder if manufacturers will be phasing out DVD players given Blu-ray players already provide support for the format. This would reduce the cost of carrying and designing a much larger array of players. Not to mention shelf space seems to be at a premium these days in brick and mortar stores.

Once UHD BD players settle down I could see them doing the same thing with standard BD players given UHD BD players will be backwards compatible.

If they were going to do that, they would have done it long ago, especially as BD players dropped below $99. But they didn't. So even though there are plenty of BD players out there for around $70, the manufacturers still see a need to sell DVD players for $25 to $40 for the lower end of the market. And DVD media still has 78% of the unit share in the U.S.

The strange thing is that the major players don't make any money at those price levels, but they don't want to lose market share to the Chinese companies, so they continue to market their own money-losing models.

As far as UHD is concerned, those players will probably be quite expensive at launch. Will take at least a year for prices to come down. And while BD and DVD players are compatible with CD, there's been some questions as to whether the UHD player will be, although CDs are obviously in severe decline as well.

[ronjones]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

If they were going to do that, they would have done it long ago, especially as BD players dropped below $99. But they didn't. So even though there are plenty of BD players out there for around $70, the manufacturers still see a need to sell DVD players for $25 to $40 for the lower end of the market. And DVD media still has 78% of the unit share in the U.S.

The strange thing is that the major players don't make any money at those price levels, but they don't want to lose market share to the Chinese companies, so they continue to market their own money-losing models.

As far as UHD is concerned, those players will probably be quite expensive at launch. Will take at least a year for prices to come down. And while BD and DVD players are compatible with CD, there's been some questions as to whether the UHD player will be, although CDs are obviously in severe decline as well.

The history of new tech for the consumer electronics market is to introduce the higher-end models for the first year to capture the early adopters, then very gradually work the tech into the mid-level then later the lower end models. My best guess is $500 for 2016 models (i.e., introduced late this year) then $300 for 2017 models and finally sub -$200 for 2018 models (all MSRP).

[renegadeviking]

They should release firmware with HEVC decoders on current bluray players to play UHD blurays at 1080p.

[Coenskubrick]

Originally Posted by renegadeviking

They should release firmware with HEVC decoders on current bluray players to play UHD blurays at 1080p.

Could they even handle the bitrates?

[ronjones]

Originally Posted by renegadeviking

They should release firmware with HEVC decoders on current bluray players to play UHD blurays at 1080p.

Stand alone Blu-ray players are not computers and instead they use dedicated hardware decoders rather than software decoders. No way to add HEVC decoding via a firmware update to existing Blu-ray players.

[d514]

You can get 55" UHD TVs from Samsung for about $900. Those can play mp4 and mkv files from external hdds encoded with HEVC.

For a player you only need to add a disc drive and you don't need the expansive UHD display. So I don't see why a first generation standalone player should cost more than $350 to $400.

[KidHorn]

My guess is the first players will be around $600 msrp and will be available around Halloween. You may find some Black Friday deals for maybe $400+ or good prices on package deals (Player+TV). but prices will stay flat until Mid January and then start to drop.

At first there will be maybe 50 or so movies available with prices around $40. All new releases will have UHD versions and some older titles will be converted a few at a time. A few will have HDR and/or WCG.

Just a guess.

[Dylan34]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

There is also probably higher licensing costs. Don't expect these players to be cheap. My guess is that profit margins are unbelievably slim on current BD players, especially those priced below $100. UHD players are going to be far more expensive, especially at launch. Consumer expectations for cheap players are absurd, IMO. We've really been spoiled by Chinese manufacturing. The amount of technology packed into a modern BD player is really amazing. If you think about it, just the WiFi connection that exists in most players should be priced at least $40.

All I'm saying is that if they want UHD 4K blu-ray to be even remotely successful, don't price yourself out of the game at launch or you might as well not even bother launching period. As far as the majority of consumers go, most of them are fine with DVD. I was an early adopter of blu-ray but if they're going to launch players at what it costs to get a new 4K tv ( you can get one of the 2015 Sony 4k tvs 49 inch for like 989 or something like that) I'm not paying that. I'm not paying 1000 dollars for a player, and that's not being cheap or a tight wad or whatever you want to call. Basic players should be around 300 to 350. Flagship players 500 to 550.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Dylan34

All I'm saying is that if they want UHD 4K blu-ray to be even remotely successful, don't price yourself out of the game at launch or you might as well not even bother launching period. As far as the majority of consumers go, most of them are fine with DVD. I was an early adopter of blu-ray but if they're going to launch players at what it costs to get a new 4K tv ( you can get one of the 2015 Sony 4k tvs 49 inch for like 989 or something like that) I'm not paying that. I'm not paying 1000 dollars for a player, and that's not being cheap or a tight wad or whatever you want to call. Basic players should be around 300 to 350. Flagship players 500 to 550.

In spite of the fact that most sales of new model TVs are 4K TVs, 4K media is going to be an esoteric format for years to come. Blu-ray, with a 22% physical unit market share is really only a niche format, even if it's sold everywhere. 4K physical media is going to be a niche of a niche. Therefore, it's primarily going to sell to high-end buyers for which price doesn't matter much. Don't be surprised if at launch, players are $1K, although they'll fall quickly after a year.