2015 UHD player prices?

[rdodolak]

I wonder if manufacturers will be phasing out DVD players given Blu-ray players already provide support for the format. This would reduce the cost of carrying and designing a much larger array of players. Not to mention shelf space seems to be at a premium these days in brick and mortar stores.

Once UHD BD players settle down I could see them doing the same thing with standard BD players given UHD BD players will be backwards compatible.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

I wonder if manufacturers will be phasing out DVD players given Blu-ray players already provide support for the format. This would reduce the cost of carrying and designing a much larger array of players. Not to mention shelf space seems to be at a premium these days in brick and mortar stores.

Once UHD BD players settle down I could see them doing the same thing with standard BD players given UHD BD players will be backwards compatible.

If they were going to do that, they would have done it long ago, especially as BD players dropped below $99. But they didn't. So even though there are plenty of BD players out there for around $70, the manufacturers still see a need to sell DVD players for $25 to $40 for the lower end of the market. And DVD media still has 78% of the unit share in the U.S.

The strange thing is that the major players don't make any money at those price levels, but they don't want to lose market share to the Chinese companies, so they continue to market their own money-losing models.

As far as UHD is concerned, those players will probably be quite expensive at launch. Will take at least a year for prices to come down. And while BD and DVD players are compatible with CD, there's been some questions as to whether the UHD player will be, although CDs are obviously in severe decline as well.

[ronjones]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

If they were going to do that, they would have done it long ago, especially as BD players dropped below $99. But they didn't. So even though there are plenty of BD players out there for around $70, the manufacturers still see a need to sell DVD players for $25 to $40 for the lower end of the market. And DVD media still has 78% of the unit share in the U.S.

The strange thing is that the major players don't make any money at those price levels, but they don't want to lose market share to the Chinese companies, so they continue to market their own money-losing models.

As far as UHD is concerned, those players will probably be quite expensive at launch. Will take at least a year for prices to come down. And while BD and DVD players are compatible with CD, there's been some questions as to whether the UHD player will be, although CDs are obviously in severe decline as well.

The history of new tech for the consumer electronics market is to introduce the higher-end models for the first year to capture the early adopters, then very gradually work the tech into the mid-level then later the lower end models. My best guess is $500 for 2016 models (i.e., introduced late this year) then $300 for 2017 models and finally sub -$200 for 2018 models (all MSRP).

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by ronjones

The history of new tech for the consumer electronics market is to introduce the higher-end models for the first year to capture the early adopters, then very gradually work the tech into the mid-level then later the lower end models. My best guess is $500 for 2016 models (i.e., introduced late this year) then $300 for 2017 models and finally sub -$200 for 2018 models (all MSRP).

I would increase your price estimates by 70%: at least $850 for 2016 (and I wouldn't be surprised to see $999), $500 for 2017 and $340 for 2018. Time will tell whether you or I are correct. And I bet discs will list for at least $50 the first year.

[AgentOrange]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I would increase your price estimates by 70%: at least $850 for 2016 (and I wouldn't be surprised to see $999), $500 for 2017 and $340 for 2018. Time will tell whether you or I are correct. And I bet discs will list for at least $50 the first year.

That would be pretty insane this time around, considering UHD is essentially just an extension of blu-ray. Technologically speaking, an UHD player really shouldn't cost that much more than a premium blu-ray player. In terms of cost of goods, the unit cost to produce might actually be very close to a blu-ray player.

Of course there will be price premiums for a new product to capture those early adopters (there always is), but IMO unless they quickly come out with players starting around $300 they will really be stunting the launch of the format. Maybe even ensuring the format's doom at this point. That is not to say they won't want to capture even more price premium from early adopters, I think they will try at first to push it very high, but IMO prices will drop like a rock after launch and $999 is seemingly outrageous. I would guess $499 entry point if they really want to push it, but in the face of competition from streaming it's hard to see manufacturers maintaining such price premiums.

I do think the discs will start out very high. Probably like $39.99 MSRP for typical releases (basically look at the 3D model). I'm Ok with $39.99 or $49.99 so long as everything I buy feels like an "ultimate edition". I won't be buying any barebones releases at those prices.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by AgentOrange

That would be pretty insane this time around, considering UHD is essentially just an extension of blu-ray. Technologically speaking, an UHD player really shouldn't cost that much more than a premium blu-ray player. In terms of cost of goods, the unit cost to produce might actually be very close to a blu-ray player.

It technically is an extension of Blu-ray, but it's still a new format. And new formats are expensive at first. Lower volume means higher prices, regardless of whether component costs are much different or not. Also there is the novelty factor and they can charge more because they know the early adopters will pay.

Besides, they have to charge quite a bit more. Low volume + low prices = loser product. A "niche of a niche" needs laserdisc pricing. That's why laserdisc thrived for so long.

[renegadeviking]

They should release firmware with HEVC decoders on current bluray players to play UHD blurays at 1080p.

[doctor_who]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I would increase your price estimates by 70%: at least $850 for 2016 (and I wouldn't be surprised to see $999), $500 for 2017 and $340 for 2018. Time will tell whether you or I are correct. And I bet discs will list for at least $50 the first year.

There is absolutely no chance that your prices are accurate. ZERO.

[Coenskubrick]

Originally Posted by renegadeviking

They should release firmware with HEVC decoders on current bluray players to play UHD blurays at 1080p.

Could they even handle the bitrates?

[ronjones]

Originally Posted by renegadeviking

They should release firmware with HEVC decoders on current bluray players to play UHD blurays at 1080p.

Stand alone Blu-ray players are not computers and instead they use dedicated hardware decoders rather than software decoders. No way to add HEVC decoding via a firmware update to existing Blu-ray players.

[d514]

You can get 55" UHD TVs from Samsung for about $900. Those can play mp4 and mkv files from external hdds encoded with HEVC.

For a player you only need to add a disc drive and you don't need the expansive UHD display. So I don't see why a first generation standalone player should cost more than $350 to $400.

[KidHorn]

My guess is the first players will be around $600 msrp and will be available around Halloween. You may find some Black Friday deals for maybe $400+ or good prices on package deals (Player+TV). but prices will stay flat until Mid January and then start to drop.

At first there will be maybe 50 or so movies available with prices around $40. All new releases will have UHD versions and some older titles will be converted a few at a time. A few will have HDR and/or WCG.

Just a guess.

[4K fanatic]

If anyone like me has a 4K TV and Netflix w/20mbps or higher, Breaking Bad is phenomenal. I re watched the entire series from the start last year. It's like an entire new experience. Also, I already finished Netflix's new series in 4 K from the brothers who did the matrix movies and King Kong- Sense 8. Prob my favorite new show. Binged and finished it in a couple days. I think Orange is the New Black should be in 4K for next season too. Daredevil was kinda meh for me. Breaking Bad will be the greatest dramatic TV show I'll ever see in my lifetime, and I've watched many series.

Hoping the new Heros will be good but no one is left besides Hiro from the original series. Thought they'd pick up where Peter snd Syler ( I think) were trapped in some " mind" world. ( can't recall. I just know they were trapped in the matrix and couldn't get out.

[Adrian Wright]

http://www.businesswire.com/news/hom...D#.VcIzUIqkqnM

Not long till we find out for reals ...

[raygendreau]

When UHD BR players arrive, the physical disk will be competing with streaming and downloads that have several months head start.

Samsung SUHD display owners are already enjoying over 40 UHD movie downloads, including 6 available in UHD HDR. The movies are stored on a WD Cinema Passport 1 TB drive that can be purchased for $60 to $90 with several UHD movies loaded and the option to download additional UHD HDR movies using the M-GO app on their Samsung displays.

How badly will the downloads undercut the adoption of UHD BR? On a positive note, the competition may result in lower prices for the UHD BR players at launch.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by raygendreau

When UHD BR players arrive, the physical disk will be competing with streaming and downloads that have several months head start.

Samsung SUHD display owners are already enjoying over 40 UHD movie downloads, including 6 available in UHD HDR. The movies are stored on a WD Cinema Passport 1 TB drive that can be purchased for $60 to $90 with several UHD movies loaded and the option to download additional UHD HDR movies using the M-GO app on their Samsung displays.

How badly will the downloads undercut the adoption of UHD BR? On a positive note, the competition may result in lower prices for the UHD BR players at launch.

lol, something tells me SUHD won't even be a blip on the radar for UHD BR to worry about. $60-$90 means only a handful of people will even lOOK at them

[raygendreau]

Samsung dominates the UHD TV market in North America and has 50% of the UHD TV market in Europe. LG is number 2 and the smart UHD LG tvs have the M-GO app. You can expect the 2015 LG OLEDS to partner with M-Go/Fox when they receive their HDR firmware updates within months.

http://www.nanosysinc.com/in-the-new...d-from-nanosys

This promotion is on the way, but several SUHD owners posting on AVS Forum have already purchased the WD 1 TB drive and are very impressed with the UHD HDR downloads.

I see trouble ahead for UHD BR adoption. Particularly at launch if prices are high.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnarch...l-august-16th/

[rdodolak]

So, WD's My Passport Cinema can only store up to 13 UHD movies at a time and it connects via USB. Also, according to WD there are only eight movies available to choose from at the moment.

I don't see this lasting for very long.

[raygendreau]

Actually 19 UHD, 7 of which are UHD HDR for VIDITY. I count another 41 UHD streaming selections on M-Go. Not bad considering it was just launched for VIDITY.

http://www.mgo.com/list/uhd-with-download-beta?epp=list

[rdodolak]

So these digital UHD copies are selling for $29.99 each and only available with select Samsung televisions?