Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Box Office Thread

[Geoff D]

Heh, there is that to consider whenever people talk about how you can't compare figures from then and now. While I agree that older movies put more arses on seats, they also had a SHEDLOAD of re-releases over time (without home video to contend with) which bulked them up considerably, so these modern single-run numbers really are just as impressive in their own right IMO.

[UK_fan_05]

To me you can't compare movies released now with ones released back in the day. Different eras can have different "champions" for the box office and we should stop adjusting for inflation because it is nonsense.

[WhySoBlu?]

Originally Posted by Geoff D

Heh, there is that to consider whenever people talk about how you can't compare figures from then and now. While I agree that older movies put more arses on seats, they also had a SHEDLOAD of re-releases over time (without home video to contend with) which bulked them up considerably, so these modern single-run numbers really are just as impressive in their own right IMO.

Not to mention the fact that there were next to no alternatives for entertainment to compete for a person's money and time back then. Or the fact that theaters were often used as a cheap source of air conditioning in a time when few had that luxury in their homes.

[Diesel]

While a $90M third weekend is nuts....I would hope for an upswing on Saturday/Sunday for the simple fact that a $100M third weekend is a better story



As for the above discussion, as incredibly as I find the film, Titanic is, to me, the single most remarkable box office run in cinematic history taking all the factors we always discuss in these box office threads into account. The fact that it has been nearly 20 years since that film came out and only ONE* movie has topped it's world wide total gross is absolutely absurd. I would place the original Star Wars and Avatar's runs at #2 and #3.




*For another 1-2 weeks or so

[supersix4]

Originally Posted by UK_fan_05

To me you can't compare movies released now with ones released back in the day. Different eras can have different "champions" for the box office and we should stop adjusting for inflation because it is nonsense.

Pretty simple to me

Old movies have had
-decades of Vhs, DVD, Blu, digital sales to stack numbers
-much less competition for entertainment
-less pirating compared to today

New movies
-value of dollar due to inflation (easily adjusted to help old movies though)
-ability to generate interest due to marketing, social media, etc.
-Different price points with Imax, 3d, 3d Imax, etc.
-More theater amounts (granted you could offset with longer viewing times from back in the day)


The bottom line these old movies have had their fair share of advantages too and when you adjust their numbers for inflation which is fair, and they still aren't beating some of todays heavy hitters then its more impressive to me what movies now-a-days are doing. In a FB world where we watch 7 second videos, and have the attention span of a nat by and large. To do something like star wars is right now, is downright impressive.

Originally Posted by WhySoBlu?

Not to mention the fact that there were next to no alternatives for entertainment to compete for a person's money and time back then. Or the fact that theaters were often used as a cheap source of air conditioning in a time when few had that luxury in their homes.

Yeah I mean you coulda stuck battlefield earth in theaters in 1932 and probably sold 200+ million worth of tickets. If you wanted to see something you literally had no options.

Originally Posted by Diesel

While a $90M third weekend is nuts....I would hope for an upswing on Saturday/Sunday for the simple fact that a $100M third weekend is a better story



As for the above discussion, as incredibly as I find the film, Titanic is, to me, the single most remarkable box office run in cinematic history taking all the factors we always discuss in these box office threads into account. The fact that it has been nearly 20 years since that film came out and only ONE* movie has topped it's world wide total gross is absolutely absurd. I would place the original Star Wars and Avatar's runs at #2 and #3.




*For another 1-2 weeks or so

5-10 million over two days is feasible I'm sure it'll hit 100. I myself said 90-99

[jayman3]

I firmly believe TFA will (obviously) pass Avatar's domestic gross and could end with 800-850 million but will not pass Avatar's worldwide gross.

It would be a miracle if Star Wars actually manages to hit 1 billion domestic. As far as I'm concerned it has until March when BvS is released to make as much money it possibly can.

[Britbuffguy]

Originally Posted by jayman3

I firmly believe TFA will (obviously) pass Avatar's domestic gross and could end with 800-850 million but will not pass Avatar's worldwide gross.

It would be a miracle if Star Wars actually manages to hit 1 billion domestic. As far as I'm concerned it has until March when BvS is released to make as much money it possibly can.

It's on track to be at around $740 million on Sunday....and you think it will end at $850????

Really?

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by Britbuffguy

It's on track to be at around $740 million on Sunday....and you think it will end at $850????

Really?

Depends on how severe the dropoff is once everyone is back at work and school. The lack of competition will help though. January is usually a dreadful month aside from the Oscar hopefuls.

[tigertron]

Originally Posted by jayman3

I firmly believe TFA will (obviously) pass Avatar's domestic gross and could end with 800-850 million but will not pass Avatar's worldwide gross.

It would be a miracle if Star Wars actually manages to hit 1 billion domestic. As far as I'm concerned it has until March when BvS is released to make as much money it possibly can.

Once TFA opens in China I think it'll pass Avatar's worldwide gross easily.

[Elbie]

Talking about adjusted for inflation is pretty much pointless. None of studios are going to use those numbers to brag about how much money they've made.

Kind of sucks that all the movies that didn't have these gimmicks attached and movie ticket inflation are going to be replaced on the top lists, but it is what it is.

[Walts Ghost]

Originally Posted by Elbie

Talking about adjusted for inflation is pretty much pointless. None of studios are going to use those numbers to brag about how much money they've made.

Kind of sucks that all the movies that didn't have these gimmicks attached and movie ticket inflation are going to be replaced on the top lists, but it is what it is.

As mentioned before, those movies also had how many re-releases along the way? Gone With the Wind was in theaters eight separate times, pushing it's gross as high as it did. Modern movies don't get that. So while we might have some modern gimmicks, older films with their many re-release, could be seen as its own sort of gimmick, pushing the film to where it is now. You have to look at both sides of it.

[Elbie]

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

Those movies also had how many re-releases along the way? Gone With the Wind was in theaters eight separate times, pushing it's gross as high as it did. Modern movies don't get that. So while we might have some modern gimmicks, older films with their many re-release, could be seen as its own sort of gimmick, pushing the film to where it is now. You have to look at both sides of it.

Basically. So it's really nothing people should get bent all out of shape over. Records are made to be broken. Doesn't take any enjoyment people had over the movies.

I'm just glad Avatar will no longer be #1. Lol.

[Walts Ghost]

Originally Posted by Elbie

Basically. So it's really nothing people should get bent all out of shape over. Records are made to be broken. Doesn't take any enjoyment people had over the movies.

I'm just glad Avatar will no longer be #1. Lol.

I agree on both points. happy to see Avatar falling domestically. Will it get the worldwide number, possibly, but it's a large hill to climb...But it's not out of the question. I'd be like to see it tackle it on the worldwide number, but I won't hold my breath.

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Originally Posted by tigertron

Once TFA opens in China I think it'll pass Avatar's worldwide gross easily.

But it has been reported that the Chinese population are mostly oblivious to the franchise and its history. Their population doesn't have any stakes in this film like most of the rest of the planet. They haven't seen the films as children due to strict prohibitions against American content for such a long time.

I wouldn't get your hopes up on their box office numbers. It will make money. It just won't make "Oh my goodness! How did that happen?" kind of money.

[jayman3]

Originally Posted by Britbuffguy

It's on track to be at around $740 million on Sunday....and you think it will end at $850????

Really?

Okay. I'll change it to 850-900.

[blufellas]

It will easily hit 1 billion. It will be around 740+ million by the end of this weekend. I think will at least make 10 million a day during Mon-Thur = 40 million.

And around 45+ million on the weekend.

740 + 85 = 825 million.

Then it will have, what another 2+ months to make 175 million.

[Rodney-2187]

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

But it has been reported that the Chinese population are mostly oblivious to the franchise and its history. Their population doesn't have any stakes in this film like most of the rest of the planet. They haven't seen the films as children due to strict prohibitions against American content for such a long time.

I wouldn't get your hopes up on their box office numbers. It will make money. It just won't make "Oh my goodness! How did that happen?" kind of money.

I've read the same. I wonder what DVD/blu-ray sales of Star Wars have been in China. Maybe it could still be more popular there than we think?

[jayman3]

Originally Posted by blufellas

It will easily hit 1 billion. It will be around 740+ million by the end of this weekend. I think will at least make 10 million a day during Mon-Thur = 40 million.

And around 45+ million on the weekend.

740 + 85 = 825 million.

Then it will have, what another 2+ months to make 175 million.

All it really has to do is make $3 million a day for the next 85 days to break a billion domestic.

[Nocturnaloner]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Um... It won't run 34 weeks?

fitprod

Let me put it this way then: If TFA follows Avatar's pattern for 8 weeks, it will make 1.389 billion domestic. If it runs until May, that's 20 weeks.

[Nocturnaloner]

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

Avatar offered something new and unique. TFA has been said to be too similar to A New Hope. As a result, I have doubts that it will get as much attention in the repeat viewings that Avatar had due to the "spectacle" factor not being quite the same.

You're making the mistake that your personal assessment of Star Wars vs. Avatar has something to with its box office receipts. Star Wars' fan following on the other hand, means domestic repeat viewings on a scale we haven't seen before. That's why it will absolutely beat 1 billion domestic, and I'm thinking by a pretty good margin.

I'll grant you that fanbase isn't there in China, but Deadline interviewed some of the top Chinese distributors a couple of weeks ago, and their estimates ranged from $280 to $320 million. Jurassic World did $228 million.