Rough economy challenges Blu-ray?

[JimShaw]

Reading the Sunday paper The Press-Enterprise, I came across a large article regarding Blu-ray.

Following are a few excerpts.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rough Economy Challenges Blu-ray

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

But Hollywood is still betting on the format, releasing more home video titles on Blu-ray.

“We’ve been investing quite a bit of R&D and our future into this business,” said Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

-------------------------------------------------------------------

[Anthony P]

yawn, one more person paid to make up excuses why BD is doomed. Funny how they needed to find a computer analyst to say that the movie would be slowed because of the recession, after all anyone that has any knowledge of the movie industry would know better.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

yawn, one more person paid to make up excuses why BD is doomed. Funny how they needed to find a computer analyst to say that the movie would be slowed because of the recession, after all anyone that has any knowledge of the movie industry would know better.

That same ANALyst has been quoted on a couple of other news sources. He is truly clueless as to what is going on. Blu-ray sales for Q4 will surpass the total for the first three quarters of the year.

[quexos]

Why is it that everybody goes extreme in their opinion in the future of something, anything for that matter ?

Nobody knows whether Bluray will succeed or crash. One can notice a trend or analyze conjectures and from there infer a possible future but saying Bluray will totally crash for sure in 6 months, 3 days and 4 hours or saying the opposite is vain methinks.

[JimShaw]

Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment did say, regarding Blus

“We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by JimShaw

Reading the Sunday paper The Press-Enterprise, I came across a large article regarding Blu-ray.

Following are a few excerpts.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rough Economy Challenges Blu-ray

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

But Hollywood is still betting on the format, releasing more home video titles on Blu-ray.

“We’ve been investing quite a bit of R&D and our future into this business,” said Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Iron Man just sold 500,000 in one week and other titles are still selling between 10 and 15% of sales. This article is FUBAR.

[dialog_gvf]

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

There always seems to be another analyst to predict that.

Where is the high quality HD download service? Shouldn't it exist before predicting it will replace an existing market?

Gary

P.S. Here's a form quote:

Analyst [fill in name] predicts [fill in event] will cause a slow down in Blu-ray adoption, allowing downloads to take over.

[blu2]

In case anyone wants to read the actual article:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...&sn=002&sc=957

[naturephoto1]

Just as in my 2 businesses, there are always people with deep pockets that can get through bad economic times. Hopefully there will be enough, and enough of the general public will jump on the bandwagon now and when the economy improves.

Rich

[blu2]

And here is an analyst taking the opposite stance (comments on the Kay analysis)

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blu102008.htm

Washington, D.C. (October 20, 2008) -- Some analysts are predicting that the U.S. economic slump will kill Blu-ray player sales in the fourth quarter and perhaps beyond. For instance, Roger Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associates, is forecasting a "dramatic" drop in Blu-ray sales.

But Kay and his fellow doomsayers are ignoring what's taking place in the marketplace. Blu-ray player prices are dropping fast with several models now available at retail and online for under $250.

Additionally, I predict that some Blu-ray players will be available for $129-149 by Christmas, just a few dollars more than your average standard-def DVD player. At those prices, high-def owners, who have more disposable dollars than the average consumer, will find the Blu-ray player all but irresistible.

But analysts who are calling for Blu-ray's demise are banking that consumers will suddenly find new Net-based video services irresistible. They believe -- somehow -- that millions of Americans will rush to the store to, no, not buy a Blu-ray player, but buy a different set-top that delivers movies over the Net.

Of course, this contradicts their argument that the economy will hurt Blu-ray sales. If consumers don't have the money for Blu-ray, they won't have the money for those Net-enabled set-tops, either, from companies such as Apple, Netflix and Vudu.

"If you can get movies over the wire on demand and have an entire library at your disposal on the screen a la Netflix, that's the way you're going to go," Kay told the San Francisco Chronicle, apparently referring to Netflix's new set-top partnership with LG Electronics.

Some analysts, though, are saying that consumers will simply order films from On Demand services on cable and satellite. But they seem to ignore that satellite's On Demand service (at least from DIRECTV) requires a high-speed Broadband connection that's more trouble to connect that it's worth.

Cable's On Demand service is much easier to use and has plenty of HD titles to choose from -- if you happen to be a subscriber to a major cable service. Many smaller cable operators' On Demand lineup pales in comparison to the majors.

So, in the view of this analyst, Blu-ray will have a strong holiday season, perhaps even stronger than previously anticipated because the tough economy will force retailers and Blu-ray makers to lower prices earlier than planned on players and movie titles.

[MAPdead]

Why are sales increasing if Blu Ray is doomed? This guy is an complete dumbass.

[crazyBLUE]

I'M NOT BUYING MY MOVIES OVER NO INTERNET OR ANY OTHER MEANS OF STREAMING IT TO ME !!!! The economy will not slow me down on my purchases of the BLUE-RAYS I want !!! The BRD will have far better PQ & AQ ! ALL the other way's will look like HD cable or CRAP COMPARED TO BLUE-RAY !!

[MAPdead]

Originally Posted by crazyBLUE

I'M NOT BUYING MY MOVIES OVER NO INTERNET OR ANY OTHER MEANS OF STREAMING IT TO ME !!!! The economy will not slow me down on my purchases of the BLUE-RAYS I want !!! The BRD will have far better PQ & AQ ! ALL the other way's will look like HD cable or CRAP COMPARED TO BLUE-RAY !!

I know I am not buying my movies online and I can't watch dvds no more I have been watching blu rays for 2 months now and there is no way the movie company especially Sony will let that happen

[Bobby Henderson]

The ninnies constantly trying to push the "movie downloads are going to take over" angle are forgetting a major reason why lots of people are buying into Blu-ray: the Blu-ray format delivers the very best level of quality of high definition one can experience in the home.

Downloads do not deliver Blu-ray levels of HD quality. They sacrifice quality in return for a perceived level of convenience. But how convenient can it be to have to sit and wait, possibly for hours on end, for your movie to finish downloading before you can watch it. In that amount of time, I can run a few errands and stop by the video store along the way, rent a Blu-ray (and get the rental for less money than the download services charge) and then be back at home watching the movie in the highest quality form of HD I can obtain.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by MAPdead

Why are sales increasing if Blu Ray is doomed? This guy is an complete dumbass.

Yeah well look who his boss is

[Blu-Ron]

I purchased more Blu's since this (so-called) depression started, than I did all year.

[RustyK94]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ron

I purchased more Blu's since this (so-called) depression started, than I did all year.

I think there blowing this whole economic supposed crisis out of all proportion. Inflation will drop in 2009 enough for an a significant cut in interest rates.

Blu-Ray is still on course to outpace DVD in 2012.

[jd213]

Who is this Roger Kay, anyway? He sounds like just another sore loser on the HD DVD side. Has he or "Endpoint Technologies Associates" ever been right in their predictions related to Blu-ray?

[tron3]

Did MP3 downlaod kill CD? No, but it slowed it down. But the file sizes are extremely small in comparison. Mere megabytes.

Did digital downlaod kill DVD? No, but at least there was some chance of it creating a great impact. The files were huge, but not gut busting.

So, if two lesser technologies will not die, how will blu-ray? C'mon, we all know that even a "cheap" blu-ray movie comes on a 25 GB disc. Who is going d/l THAT? Answer: VERY FEW. So, they stick with the original HD DVD specs and over compress a picture which is already at 720p to get it down to maybe 10 to 12 GB. Then they have the gall to call it HD?

I have a message for the industry anal-ysts. STOP COMPARING APPLES TO ORANGES!

[owa]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Where is the high quality HD download service? Shouldn't it exist before predicting it will replace an existing market?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking.