Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

Streaming is digital. The difference isn't the format, it's the pricing mechanism. And CDs did great. But losing 16% a year now isn't 'fine', it's dying.

No, it's fine. There is just far more diversity out there now. You have YouTube, Illegal music, ITunes, Spotify, Apple Music, Deezer, CD, Vinyl, High Fidelity Files, radio etc.. If there is a market for them, it's alive. There will be a market for a long time. By the way, the music industry in general is in decline. However, collectors, like DVD and Bluray in the film world, are very important.

Look at Ed Sheeran's latest album. It's sales are made up of 62 percent Psychical. That's incredible. That includes the highest sales for 20 years For vinyl I understand. I think the industry will find a way to blend CD, Vinyl AND streaming. vinyl is certainly not going anywhere any time soon either.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

Streaming is digital. The difference isn't the format, it's the pricing mechanism. And CDs did great. But losing 16% a year now isn't 'fine', it's dying.

Sales used to be fantastic, now they're fine. CD sales are far worse than they used to be but I expect the format still has decades of life left in it.

[zorbonaut]

I'm finding myself more ok with just owning the digital copies of films. I still purchase Criterion's and the random Blu-Ray or two but I've dramatically increased my digital spending.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Sales used to be fantastic, now they're fine. CD sales are far worse than they used to be but I expect the format still has decades of life left in it.

It had the highest percentage drop in over five years this year.

Year Sales Percentage Drop
2016 104.8 16.56%
2015 125.6 10.86%
2014 140.9 14.81%
2013 165.4 14.48%
2012 193.4 13.47%
2011 223.5 6.84%

Based on just a 10% percentage drop annually, which is less than the drop for the past five years, here's what we're looking at:

Year Sales
2016 104.8
2017 94.3
2018 84.9
2019 76.4
2020 68.8
2021 61.9

Keep in mind that estimate presumes the drops will level off, whereas this year showed a substantial increase.

That's not 'fine'.

[squatting hen]

I have a small work group and I have mentioned this before about disc sales, but only one person here, and it's her husband still buys CD's. Nobody else "buys" anything. They use Pandora, Spotify, Amazon, YouTube and one person uses Microsoft Music. I know it is a small sample and in no way am I stating this represents the whole. I personally don't know anyone that buys movies, or CD's anymore. Family or Friends.

It's been years since I bought a CD. I can only guess now, but at one point I probably had a few hundred easily. Ah....BMG Music, Columbia House....those were the days. 13 for the price of one! Now most of them sit in a binder as all the cases and artwork have been tossed. The binder is somewhere....

[cpr3584]

I went to two different Walmarts in my major city to find physical copies of 2 legendary films, Terminator 2 and Raiders of the Lost Ark. Neither store had them. Just a limited selection of old movies and some new releases. VUDU had both, to rent or buy. This was the final straw for me. I don't want to wait 3 days for the movies to come in the mail from Amazon. The end is coming for physical media. As a child of the blockbuster era (i'm 33) its sad but I'm finally going all-in with digital HD, just keeping a few discs around for offline viewing.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

It had the highest percentage drop in over five years this year.

Year Sales Percentage Drop
2016 104.8 16.56%
2015 125.6 10.86%
2014 140.9 14.81%
2013 165.4 14.48%
2012 193.4 13.47%
2011 223.5 6.84%

Based on just a 10% percentage drop annually, which is less than the drop for the past five years, here's what we're looking at:

Year Sales
2016 104.8
2017 94.3
2018 84.9
2019 76.4
2020 68.8
2021 61.9

Keep in mind that estimate presumes the drops will level off, whereas this year showed a substantial increase.

That's not 'fine'.

Did you miss the fact that digital albums (and singles) dropped by over 20% last year? I guess digital is dying as well.

And Vinyl has grown by 1500% in the last 10 years. Based on that trend Vinyl will soon be the most popular format again.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Did you miss the fact that digital albums (and singles) dropped by over 20% last year? I guess digital is dying as well.

And Vinyl has grown by 1500% in the last 10 years. Based on that trend Vinyl will soon be the most popular format again.

Again, streaming is digital. They use the same files and offer the same quality. So, no, it's not dying.

As for CDs, it's not just the percentage change, it's the lack of stabilization for CDs. It's actually dropping faster now than in previous years. My estimate was conservative.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

Again, streaming is digital. They use the same files and offer the same quality. So, no, it's not dying.

But they're a different market. There are plenty of people streaming, there are plenty of people buying digital downloads, and there are plenty of people buying CDs. They are three different markets and a large percentage of each have no interest in switching. Regardless of which market is most popular the record companies have to cater to all three in order to keep sales high.

The same applies to movies as well. Regardless of how many people are streaming movies the studios would lose billions of dollars if they abandoned physical media.

Originally Posted by Wasgo

As for CDs, it's not just the percentage change, it's the lack of stabilization for CDs. It's actually dropping faster now than in previous years. My estimate was conservative.

But 2015 was a substantially lower drop than previous years. If we were having this conversation a few months ago it would look very different. You're basing your trend that it's going to drop at a faster and faster rate on a single point of data.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

But 2015 was a substantially lower drop than previous years. If we were having this conversation a few months ago it would look very different. You're basing your trend that it's going to drop at a faster and faster rate on a single point of data.

What? I used percentage drops and set them below the lowest percentage drop in the past 5 years. Here's the same drops over the past 5 years in absolute terms:

Year Drop
2016 20.8
2015 15.3
2014 24.5
2013 28
2012 30.1
2011 16.4

Here's what I gave as a conservative estimate for the next 5:

Year Drop
2017 10.5
2018 9.4
2019 8.5
2020 7.6
2021 6.9

So no, that's not based on it dropping at a faster and faster rate.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cpr3584

I went to two different Walmarts in my major city to find physical copies of 2 legendary films, Terminator 2 and Raiders of the Lost Ark. Neither store had them. Just a limited selection of old movies and some new releases. VUDU had both, to rent or buy. This was the final straw for me. I don't want to wait 3 days for the movies to come in the mail from Amazon. The end is coming for physical media. As a child of the blockbuster era (i'm 33) its sad but I'm finally going all-in with digital HD, just keeping a few discs around for offline viewing.

Why didn't you just order online like the rest of the country? going all in with Digital HD will be fatal. But you will find that out soon enough. Sales could flatline this year and the industry won't cater to you just because you have a Vudu collection. Give it 3-5 years and Digital HD will be a thing of the past. It's not showing the required growth. It was up around 6% YOY and that's after Christmas!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

What? I used percentage drops and set them below the lowest percentage drop in the past 5 years. Here's the same drops over the past 5 years in absolute terms:

Year Drop
2016 20.8
2015 15.3
2014 24.5
2013 28
2012 30.1
2011 16.4

Here's what I gave as a conservative estimate for the next 5:

Year Drop
2017 10.5
2018 9.4
2019 8.5
2020 7.6
2021 6.9

So no, that's not based on it dropping at a faster and faster rate.

So they are dead but will still be around in 2021? which is it? You say they are dying but aren't we all. We are dying from the moment we are born. By that logic, you could say CD is dying I guess!

[cpr3584]

I guess i shouldnt have said "all in" i still love physical copies and there are about 50 that i will never get rid off. I'm just using VUDU more and more these days.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

So they are dead but will still be around in 2021? which is it? You say they are dying but aren't we all. We are dying from the moment we are born. By that logic, you could say CD is dying I guess!

My actual guess is that they'll become a niche format before 2020, but even under conservative estimates, they're a rapidly diminishing market.

[Steedeel]

[QUOTE=cpr3584;13364121]I guess i shouldnt have said "all in" i still love physical copies and there are about 50 that i will never get rid off. I'm just using VUDU more and more these days.[/QUOTE

Sorry for your loss.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

My actual guess is that they'll become a niche format before 2020, but even under conservative estimates, they're a rapidly diminishing market.

So not dying then. A niche doesn't mean dying.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

So not dying then. A niche doesn't mean dying.

And yet you're convinced that movies will only be watchable on a watch.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

And yet you're convinced that movies will only be watchable on a watch.

Ahhhhh, ran out of things to say so you get personal. Disappointing.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Ahhhhh, ran out of things to say so you get personal. Disappointing.

That's not personal. It's noting the double-standard. Either niche markets count, or they don't. Discs for movies are no more likely to disappear than CDs are.

[master gandhi]

Originally Posted by cpr3584

I guess i shouldnt have said "all in" i still love physical copies and there are about 50 that i will never get rid off. I'm just using VUDU more and more these days.

I'm with you. I started transitioning moreso to digital about two years ago. I've been happy enough with that decision that I don't buy nearly as many physical copies anymore. It's working out pretty well.