81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Anthony P]

it can also be that they realized that we knew how to get the data early. Don't forget the magazine officially comes out on Monday.

[Dave]

Great chart people!

Wow, here is what happens if you connect the first and the last dots



Just connected them so that it is easier to see !

[tvted]

That chart is simply speculation by AVS member fozziwig http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&#post11082982 and is based on rather baseless assumptions. Note the assumption of BD capturing 90% of the sales next year. Wasn't there supposed to be a Lunar base by now?

He was just having fun in light of the absence of data.

Oh the Internet.....

ted

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by tvted

That chart is simply speculation by AVS member fozziwig http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&#post11082982 and is based on rather baseless assumptions. Note the assumption of BD capturing 90% of the sales next year. Wasn't there supposed to be a Lunar base by now?

He was just having fun in light of the absence of data.

Oh the Internet.....

ted

It would be speculation no matter where it came from. But is it baseless? No!

Here's some of the factors (posted earlier in this thread) that I think have to happen for Blu-ray to start breaking away from HD DVD and selling in high volumes - and therefore following the trend shown on the chart.

The PS3 selling strongly (remaining at $499 or less).
Increased range of standalones with prices starting from $349.
All the Blu-ray exclusive studios delivering a decent number of titles to boost the Blu-ray catalogue to 500+ by Christmas.
Every major theatrical hit released on Blu-ray (theatrical releases up to August can make the Christmas release date).
Blockbuster expanding Blu-ray to every store.
More retailers going either Blu-ray exclusive or showing a strong in-store preference for Blu-ray.

That covers up to December '07. The forecast from Jan '08 onwards is based on Universal releasing on Blu-ray combined with a rapid expansion of the Blu-ray catalogue. By Christmas '08 I think there will be a library of 2,000+ Blu-ray titles. By then every HD DVD title released will also be available on Blu-ray.

So I did base the numbers on some assumptions - not improbable ones I think.

[nhaase]

From Fozziwig:

Increased range of standalones with prices starting from $349.

When is this supposed to happen?

[tvted]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

It would be speculation no matter where it came from. But is it baseless? No!

.....

So I did base the numbers on some assumptions - not improbable ones I think.

I doubt none of what you say, but my point stands - speculation based on what is possible. Futurist stuff. and as a result is a house of cards that can be affected by something as simple as an economic downturn caused by whatever cause those things.

ted

[bluflu]

Originally Posted by nhaase

From Fozziwig:



When is this supposed to happen?

Right now if you include $349 refurbs.
http://www.secondact.com/product/BDP1000RB

[reiella]

Originally Posted by bluflu

Right now if you include $349 refurbs.
http://www.secondact.com/product/BDP1000RB

You prolly shouldn't include refurbs, they aren't reliably available or priced. The same with Open Box specials.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by nhaase

From Fozziwig:



When is this supposed to happen?

From me earlier:

Here's some of the factors (posted earlier in this thread) that I think have to happen ....

One of those factors being $349 players (brand new & boxed).

Has it happened or is it planned at the moment? NO!

Should it happen to boost sales? YES!

Got it?

[groovyone]

No numbers yet? If they are trying to get us to buy the magazine I think it is working...

[Woody]

Numbers on HOMM
61:39 percent Week
67:33 YTD
60:40 SI

Week ending 7/15 from avsforum.com and hidefdigest.com

[dialog_gvf]

Here's the issue of HMM

July 10 had four Universal HD DVD releases, and zero Blu-ray, and BD still managed to stay above 60%.

Next week will probably be a big swing back to Blu-ray because of The Fifth Element.

Gary

[Rup_Muk]

A little disappointing for the week - but YTD and SI numbers still hold!

I share Gary's ^^ optimism.

Rup.

[Smackos]

Originally Posted by Rup_Muk

A little disappointing for the week - but YTD and SI numbers still hold!

I share Gary's ^^ optimism.

Rup.

Must admit was expecting slightly higher this week even without the releases but if we're getting to the point when a bad week now consists of 60% of the market it's not so bad I guess..

What we need is for some of those lovely exclusives coming our way again and I think from September when we start to get them the MONTHLY average will not fall below 70% again this year.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Here's the issue of HMM

July 10 had four Universal HD DVD releases, and zero Blu-ray, and BD still managed to stay above 60%.

Next week will probably be a big swing back to Blu-ray because of The Fifth Element.

Gary

Well, I'm giving up on my strategy of trying to predict the weekly Nielsen numbers using the "Hi Def Wars on Amazon" as a guide.

[dobyblue]

It was probably delayed because of all the EMA coverage they wanted ot get it.

I wish they'd stop missing the Top 10 sellers though - I like that feature. They've missed it two out of the last three weeks.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by whippersnapper

Well, I'm giving up on my strategy of trying to predict the weekly Nielsen numbers using the "Hi Def Wars on Amazon" as a guide.

Well, that is a very poor measure if you're expecting the weekly results to match up, because it includes pre-orders. Pre-orders don't count for Nielsen.

However, all the pre-orders book on release day. So, if you were to see weeks of a high ranking for a pre-order, it would be an indication of a decent sales count.

This is why I mentioned The Fifth Element. It has been highly ranked for the last two weeks, and decently ranked for a long time.

300 is obviously going to be big. And the BD pre-order has been well ahead of the HD DVD pre-order on Amazon.

Gary

[phloyd]

I wonder if they don't do the top 10 since it shows that none of the new catalog releases are worth anything.

If it is comprised of the same old titles it is not really worth column space.

[Smackos]

What is quite surprising, is that so far this month we're still tracking a higher average monthly market share percentage than we did in April or May's monthly averages(61.6% and 62.25% respectively and currently 64% for July). When you consider that in those months we had Night at the Museum, Deja Vu, Apocalypto, Both Pirates of the Caribbeans and Blood Diamond(alright not an exclusive but still a month ahead of it's HD DVD counterpart). Where as this month we've had what exactly, Premonition and the Patriot so far, could be a very interesting christmas at this rate..

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Well, that is a very poor measure if you're expecting the weekly results to match up, because it includes pre-orders. Pre-orders don't count for Nielsen.

However, all the pre-orders book on release day. So, if you were to see weeks of a high ranking for a pre-order, it would be an indication of a decent sales count.

This is why I mentioned The Fifth Element. It has been highly ranked for the last two weeks, and decently ranked for a long time.

300 is obviously going to be big. And the BD pre-order has been well ahead of the HD DVD pre-order on Amazon.

Gary

Thanks for the info Gary, I wasn't aware of the pre-order difference between "wars" and Nielsen.