91st Academy Awards (2019)

[Moviefan2k4]

Originally Posted by ILoveSteamwhistle

I wonder if the AMPAS will ever cancel the Oscars.

Doubtful, so long as they can keep using it to pat themselves on the back...and shame TV viewers with hypocritical rants.

[Moviefan2k4]

Originally Posted by sawdustandtinsel

The resemblance between Zellweger and Garland is uncanny. This photo from the production was released today.

[Show spoiler]

I really don't see it, personally. She looks more like a bad Liza Minnelli cosplayer.

[Talleyrand]

Okay, first things first: On topic: Anyone discounting the Mary Poppins nonsense is being short-sighted. That thing is making between $1.25 and $1.5 billion at the box office, grabbing at least nine Oscar nominations (including at least four of the Big Eight) and taking home at least three Oscar wins (including at least one of the Big Eight). I won't be seeing it myself, and I doubt I would like it if I did, but let's acknowledge when we are in the presence of a MONEY MAKING OSCAR WINNING BEAST.

Originally Posted by jlk5844

My post wasn't aimed at you specifically, the thread is a lot of clashing arguments and posturing, I don't see the point in adding fuel to the fire. I wouldn't get anything out of "discussing" every post I disagree with here, not gonna make an impact or change anyone's minds, just like the rest of the posts. To give you a sample though, saying the Oscars only nominate movies that no one sees or cares about, or that almost every recent Best Picture winner sucks, is ridiculous.

Edit: Actually, a better example would be, and apologies if this isn't from this thread, someone saying the Oscars only nominate leftist agenda crap. If this year's nominees were just propaganda to you, then wow.

This is fair enough. But "clashing arguments and posturing" is a pretty unfair way of describing a discussion amongst friends, which is what is happening. And honestly, it looks like we agree about a lot of the broad strokes, based on the last two or three sentences you wrote.

[sawdustandtinsel]

Originally Posted by Moviefan2k4

I really don't see it, personally. She looks more like a bad Liza Minnelli cosplayer.

Looks pretty close to me.

[jlk5844]

Originally Posted by Talleyrand

This is fair enough. But "clashing arguments and posturing" is a pretty unfair way of describing a discussion amongst friends, which is what is happening. And honestly, it looks like we agree about a lot of the broad strokes, based on the last two or three sentences you wrote.

Well...

[Show spoiler]

Originally Posted by Moviefan2k4

Doubtful, so long as they can keep using it to pat themselves on the back...and shame TV viewers with hypocritical rants.

You have a point, but there is definitely some unnecessary drivel in here.

[shinobipopcorn]

Originally Posted by sawdustandtinsel

The resemblance between Zellweger and Garland is uncanny. This photo from the production was released today.

[Show spoiler]

I need to see more than one angle. Because right now I see more Liza than Judy (which isn't necessarily bad, given the relation).

[Predatorix38417]

I forgot about this one, but First Man could be a front-runner for Best Picture and especially Best Actor (Gosling).

[Talleyrand]

Originally Posted by jlk5844

Well...




You have a point, but there is definitely some unnecessary drivel in here.

He means well.

He's just very sheltered. In fact, I could have turned out a lot like him.

[AsOldAsRhyme]

Originally Posted by Predatorix38417

I forgot about this one, but First Man could be a front-runner for Best Picture and especially Best Actor (Gosling).

I really want Claire Foy to earn a Supporting Actress nomination for this film, too. She was phenomenal in The Crown and I really hope her career can capitalize off of it.



On a different subject, I’m not sure how I feel about Mary Poppins Returns yet, Talleyrand. I do think it could be a big Oscar player, but 9 nominations—including 4 of the Big Eight—seems like overselling it to me. Right now, I would say that Original Song, Original Score, and Production Design are guaranteed nominations. Beyond that, I’m not sure.

Could Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and/or Adapted Screenplay happen? Possibly. Will they? It’s too soon to say.

I have a suspicion that it won’t be able to avoid being lumped in with all of Disney’s other live action adaptations of late, and that won’t do it any favors in the major categories.

[imsounoriginal]

Originally Posted by Talleyrand

Okay, first things first: On topic: Anyone discounting the Mary Poppins nonsense is being short-sighted. That thing is making between $1.25 and $1.5 billion at the box office, grabbing at least nine Oscar nominations (including at least four of the Big Eight) and taking home at least three Oscar wins (including at least one of the Big Eight). I won't be seeing it myself, and I doubt I would like it if I did, but let's acknowledge when we are in the presence of a MONEY MAKING OSCAR WINNING BEAST.

That's an overestimate. Best case scenario, we're looking at Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Sound, Sound Editing, maybe Visual Effects and possibly Blunt for Actress. So eight nods and only one that's major. And who knows if it would even win anything.

[Talleyrand]

Originally Posted by AsOldAsRhyme

On a different subject, I’m not sure how I feel about Mary Poppins Returns yet, Talleyrand. I do think it could be a big Oscar player, but 9 nominations—including 4 of the Big Eight—seems like overselling it to me. Right now, I would say that Original Song, Original Score, and Production Design are guaranteed nominations. Beyond that, I’m not sure.

Could Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and/or Adapted Screenplay happen? Possibly. Will they? It’s too soon to say.

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

That's an overestimate. Best case scenario, we're looking at Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Sound, Sound Editing, maybe Visual Effects and possibly Blunt for Actress. So eight nods and only one that's major. And who knows if it would even win anything.

Honestly, it's produced by Di$n£¥ and I think you guys are forgetting that. I don't think my predictions are out of line at all. We all agree on Score and Song, but I think you can count on 2, maybe 3, for Song alone. And for sure Production Design, Costumes and at least one of sound editing and Sound Design. So that's 5 and 8 right there. I also think Picture and Actress are a lock, and there's at least one supporting nomination and a screenplay nomination in there too. Maybe not director. But I really do think this thing will be the La La Land of 2018.

[AsOldAsRhyme]

Do we know how big the Streep, Firth, and Miranda supporting parts are in Poppins? I feel like Streep could snatch a Supporting nomination much easier than Blunt could even break into Lead Actress, but she’s not gonna do it without screentime and some substance.

And I thought they introduced a rule permitting films to have only two songs in contention in the Original Song category?

[Talleyrand]

Originally Posted by AsOldAsRhyme

Do we know how big the Streep, Firth, and Miranda supporting parts are in Poppins? I feel like Streep could snatch a Supporting nomination much easier than Blunt could even break into Lead Actress, but she’s not gonna do it without screentime and some substance.

And I thought they introduced a rule permitting films to have only two songs in contention in the Original Song category?

Streep is in this? Well. that's another guaranteed nomination. This film is going to be an accolade-winning machine.

Did they introduce such a rule? That's pretty stupid (and I sincerely hope that it doesn't bleed into the acting categories if true) but in that case then I full expect this film to max out that category.

[jacobsever]

I feel like Ready Player One will have to get a Visual Effects nom.

[Predatorix38417]

Originally Posted by jacobsever

I feel like Ready Player One will have to get a Visual Effects nom.

Ready Player One, Infinity War, Solo, Alita, and Mortal Engines are probably the frontrunners right now for that.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Ray Jackson

Commie bastard!!!!

...go back to Moscow!

You're all mixed up. Conservatives like Russian Communists now.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Talleyrand

Okay, first things first: On topic: Anyone discounting the Mary Poppins nonsense is being short-sighted. That thing is making between $1.25 and $1.5 billion at the box office, grabbing at least nine Oscar nominations (including at least four of the Big Eight) and taking home at least three Oscar wins (including at least one of the Big Eight). I won't be seeing it myself, and I doubt I would like it if I did, but let's acknowledge when we are in the presence of a MONEY MAKING OSCAR WINNING BEAST.

Maybe, maybe not. I actually have my doubts. The world has changed substantially since the original film and I'm not sure how many people, and especially people who still go to the movies, care about Mary Poppins.

Do kids who are/were Harry Potter, Marvel and Star Wars fans going to want to see Mary Poppins? It simply might be too sweet a film for today's audiences.

The original was released in 1964. I was 13 and already reading James Bond and seeing the films and into rock and roll. There was no way I was going to see Mary Poppins and I think today's teens are much tougher. Young males are not going to want to see this film and that's who is driving films like Black Panther. Some parents/grandparents will take kids to see it, but that's not going to make it a $billion film. I could well be surprised, but I don't think it's going to be the money machine you think it is.

[AsOldAsRhyme]

Originally Posted by Talleyrand

Streep is in this? Well. that's another guaranteed nomination. This film is going to be an accolade-winning machine.

Did they introduce such a rule? That's pretty stupid (and I sincerely hope that it doesn't bleed into the acting categories if true) but in that case then I full expect this film to max out that category.

I just looked it up to double check, and they did instate a “two songs per film” rule in 2008, after Enchanted and Dreamgirls both lost the category despite having three nominations apiece.

And LOL, I assumed you knew about Streep and that that was why you were so insistent on it scoring supporting nominations. I’m curious if they’ll give the push to the safe choice with previous winner Firth or go out on a limb for Lin Manuel Miranda and try to Mary J Blige him (he’s doing the music too). Maybe both?

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Maybe, maybe not. I actually have my doubts. The world has changed substantially since the original film and I'm not sure how many people, and especially people who still go to the movies, care about Mary Poppins.

Do kids who are/were Harry Potter, Marvel and Star Wars fans going to want to see Mary Poppins? It simply might be too sweet a film for today's audiences.

The original was released in 1964. I was 13 and already reading James Bond and seeing the films and into rock and roll. There was no way I was going to see Mary Poppins and I think today's teens are much tougher. Young males are not going to want to see this film and that's who is driving films like Black Panther. Some parents/grandparents will take kids to see it, but that's not going to make it a $billion film. I could well be surprised, but I don't think it's going to be the money machine you think it is.

Mary Poppins Returns seems like the type of movie that’ll capitalize on people in search of a feel good family movie at Christmastime. If La La Land and The Greatest Showman could do $400M, Mary Poppins should easily do better. It may not reach a billion—this will depend on non-American audiences—but a solid $600-$800 million final gross is certainly within reach.

[imsounoriginal]

Originally Posted by Talleyrand

Honestly, it's produced by Di$n£¥ and I think you guys are forgetting that. I don't think my predictions are out of line at all. We all agree on Score and Song, but I think you can count on 2, maybe 3, for Song alone. And for sure Production Design, Costumes and at least one of sound editing and Sound Design. So that's 5 and 8 right there. I also think Picture and Actress are a lock, and there's at least one supporting nomination and a screenplay nomination in there too. Maybe not director. But I really do think this thing will be the La La Land of 2018.

Since when have Disney moves been dominating the major categories at the Oscars? Or hell, even the below-the-line ones? Even their Star Wars and Marvel behemoths have yet to earn more than a handful of nods, and they haven't even managed to win anything yet. It's only their animated remakes like Cinderella and Jungle Book that have managed to scrape their way to an actual Oscar or two. I completely agree that Disney has the money to spend on lavish FYC campaigns, but that doesn't mean any of it will yield Oscars.

[Mr.F]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Since when have Disney moves been dominating the major categories at the Oscars? Or hell, even the below-the-line ones? Even their Star Wars and Marvel behemoths have yet to earn more than a handful of nods, and they haven't even managed to win anything yet. It's only their animated remakes like Cinderella and Jungle Book that have managed to scrape their way to an actual Oscar or two. I completely agree that Disney has the money to spend on lavish FYC campaigns, but that doesn't mean any of it will yield Oscars.

To be fair, the original did get 13 nominations and won 5, including Best Actress (though that was probably to stick it to the producers of My Fair Lady). Of course, those were different times and it was a different Academy. The new film is unlikely to do the same (Rob Marshall just sucks), but there is prescedent.