Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

They want to be able to easily transmit a 720p file to mobile devices.

This little bit of news should be comforting to you:

“The demand for quality is pushing connected TVs to the top in terms of device share, commanding more than 50% of total viewing hours at the expense of PCs that have lost 7%, while mobile remains relatively flat.”

Article here.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Disc sales keep going down, and Streaming is talking over!

Lets say that ALL disc sales ends by the end of the year. Now, you have implied several times you have limited funds for movies and you purchase cheap UV/MA codes and redeem them. So if disc sales end what are you going to do since cheap codes will be no more? And don’t kid yourself, EST prices are likely to increase and digital rental is already much higher than physical rental.

Seems to me people like you should be cheering on disc sales if they want those cheap UV/MA codes to continue to be available.

In the real world EST sales is about half that of physical disc. That is pretty pathetic when one considers the number devices that can play EST titles vs the number of devices that can play disc.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Lets say that ALL disc sales ends by the end of the year. Now, you have implied several times you have limited funds for movies and you purchase cheap UV/MA codes and redeem them. So if disc sales end what are you going to do since cheap codes will be no more? And don’t kid yourself, EST prices are likely to increase and digital rental is already much higher than physical rental.

Seems to me people like you should be cheering on disc sales if they want those cheap UV/MA codes to continue to be available.

In the real world EST sales is about half that of physical disc. That is pretty pathetic when one considers the number devices that can play EST titles vs the number of devices that can play disc.

You're right the Studios are not dumb they know what they are doing, cheap Codes are going away too. The UV/MA Code prices for Hot Movies is up around $15. Not all Disc Releases have Digital Codes, so keeping Disc sales doesn't ensure the Codes. The Subscription Providers like Amazon and Netflix will continue to grow, giving the Average Person a place to view the Movies or TV Shows they want to purchase on Digital or Disc. Owning a Disc Collection will slowly fade away.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Owning a Disc Collection will slowly fade away.

You and I will both fade away first.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by alchav21

You're right the Studios are not dumb they know what they are doing, cheap Codes are going away too. The UV/MA Code prices for Hot Movies is up around $15. Not all Disc Releases have Digital Codes, so keeping Disc sales doesn't ensure the Codes.

AFAIK nothing is guaranteed, codes could end this week, 2025 or 2050 or ..... At this point in time one thing is for sure, UV did not have the effect the studios hoped for and I seriously doubt MA has done much better. If MA was doing well then the numbers would be in the press.

The Subscription Providers like Amazon and Netflix will continue to grow, giving the Average Person a place to view the Movies or TV Shows they want to purchase on Digital or Disc.

That doesn’t make any sense. You could rent something on Amazon to see if you wanted to purchase, if available via Prime - why purchase? If available via Netflix - why purchase?

Owning a Disc Collection will slowly fade away.

I would try to explain title saturation, tent pole attraction, box office power, etc. to you but I believe it would be a waste of my time. You want to bet that disc sales do not increase when Mission: Impossible - Fallout hits the street?

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Vilya

You and I will both fade away first.

In a way, that's definitely true. Having a collection on disc isn't going to disappear anytime soon because a lot of people have a lot of discs right now and most of those discs aren't going anywhere.

But I don't know that people will still be buying shiny little discs twenty or so years from now. I mean, we might be. But we might not. Some other form of physical(ish) media might supplant discs or physical media could be supplanted entirely (or close enough to entirely not to matter too terribly much) by some sort of cloud or another.

In many ways twenty years is the blink of an eye but in terms of tech an awful lot can happen in twenty years.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by octagon

In a way, that's definitely true. Having a collection on disc isn't going to disappear anytime soon because a lot of people have a lot of discs right now and most of those discs aren't going anywhere.

But I don't know that people will still be buying shiny little discs twenty or so years from now. I mean, we might be. But we might not. Some other form of physical(ish) media might supplant discs or physical media could be supplanted entirely (or close enough to entirely not to matter too terribly much) by some sort of cloud or another.

In many ways twenty years is the blink of an eye but in terms of tech an awful lot can happen in twenty years.

It is certainly probable that existing physical media collections will not vanish whatever the future holds. I have a couple of decades worth of entertainment on my shelves now.

While there is no way of knowing what the home entertainment market will be like in 20 years, or even if we will still be alive, I am definitely not betting on any of the predictions that I read in this thread.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by octagon

In many ways twenty years is the blink of an eye but in terms of tech an awful lot can happen in twenty years.

If someone had told me in the 70's that in 2018 I would still be using electric motor (magnet, voice coil and cone) loudspeakers, still driving vehicles with reciprocating fossil fuel engines with big, ugly analog gauges, etc., I would have asked for some of what they were smoking.

Sometimes technology just reaches a practical limit. Today's CPU's have a lot of cores, local cache, etc. but the clock speed has remained in the 3.5 GHz range for several years now.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Sometimes technology just reaches a practical limit.

Sure but we don't appear to be anywhere near that point with regard to either data storage or transmission.

Is it possible that twenty years from now optical discs will still be the best bang for the buck with respect to the dissemination of things like TV shows and movies?

Sure, maybe.

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if they weren't.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Owning a Disc Collection will slowly fade away.

Originally Posted by octagon

In many ways twenty years is the blink of an eye but in terms of tech an awful lot can happen in twenty years.

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Sometimes technology just reaches a practical limit.

Originally Posted by octagon

Sure but we don't appear to be anywhere near that point with regard to either data storage or transmission.

Is it possible that twenty years from now optical discs will still be the best bang for the buck with respect to the dissemination of things like TV shows and movies?

Sure, maybe.

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if they weren't.

Nobody likes change, but it happens. Technology might slow down and work for a few years, but everything always moves forward. That's why I said Discs will Fade Away, because people don't see the obvious coming. I think when it comes to Streaming, it's Bandwidth, Networks, and Servers. I say if you put the Servers in an ideal location Quality will be at a high level. The Collectors will then have to decide on Physical or Digital!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Nobody likes change, but it happens. Technology might slow down and work for a few years, but everything always moves forward. That's why I said Discs will Fade Away, because people don't see the obvious coming. I think when it comes to Streaming, it's Bandwidth, Networks, and Servers. I say it you put the Servers in an ideal location Quality will be at a high level. The Collectors will then have to decide on Physical or Digital!

The collectors have already decided.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

The collectors have already decided.

Indeed they have. Purchases are approximately 1.65:1 in favor of physical media at the end of the 2nd quarter 2018. Almost 2 out of 3 purchases were physical media.

People who want to buy content have a different mindset about movies and TV shows than whose who are content with just renting whatever titles are available from whomever chooses to offer them at a given moment.

Comparing rental revenue to that of purchases is not an apt comparison as someone we all know delights in doing. Those who purchase routinely have different criteria than those who primarily rent.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Nobody likes change, but it happens. Technology might slow down and work for a few years, but everything always moves forward. That's why I said Discs will Fade Away, because people don't see the obvious coming. I think when it comes to Streaming, it's Bandwidth, Networks, and Servers. I say it you put the Servers in an ideal location Quality will be at a high level. The Collectors will then have to decide on Physical or Digital!

I love change! I have embraced seven different formats since I first began collecting movies and TV shows. I have upgraded the gear that I view and listen to them with just as often, maybe even more. I eagerly await to see what 8K technology brings to the table.

Discs won't fade away no matter how much you wish it to happen. The DVD turns 22 years-old this month, Blu-rays are 12 years-old, and 4K discs will turn 3 years-old this spring. With 4K discs enjoying two consecutive years of triple digit sales growth there is no end in sight for physical media.

Physical media still dominates all video content purchase methods by a 2:1 margin. Those who prefer to buy their content will continue to do so and more than enough of them will continue to choose physical media to ensure that it thrives.

Streaming at its best is still substantially behind the quality that the best disc format provides. 4K discs with their 128 Mbps maximum bitrates absolutely trounce the anemic and extremely compressed 16 Mbps that 4K streaming has been stuck at for nearly 4 years with no signs of improving anytime soon. The bitrate differences between the two are vast and the difference in quality is readily apparent when you compare the two.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by octagon

Sure but we don't appear to be anywhere near that point with regard to either data storage or transmission.

Is it possible that twenty years from now optical discs will still be the best bang for the buck with respect to the dissemination of things like TV shows and movies?

Sure, maybe.

But I wouldn't be at all surprised if they weren't.

I doubt much of anything would take you by surprise. You appear to be very relaxed and adaptive to change.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I doubt much of anything would take you by surprise.

You should have seen me two Novembers ago

[dublinbluray108]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

AFAIK nothing is guaranteed, codes could end this week, 2025 or 2050 or ..... At this point in time one thing is for sure, UV did not have the effect the studios hoped for and I seriously doubt MA has done much better. If MA was doing well then the numbers would be in the press.

That doesn’t make any sense. You could rent something on Amazon to see if you wanted to purchase, if available via Prime - why purchase? If available via Netflix - why purchase?

I would try to explain title saturation, tent pole attraction, box office power, etc. to you but I believe it would be a waste of my time. You want to bet that disc sales do not increase when Mission: Impossible - Fallout hits the street?

I would say that it will be a big increase when that title comes on the street date; I read from a poster today from the October digital magazine copy of Media Play News that Mission Impossible 1 to 6 will coming out in a 4K Blu-ray & Blu-ray combo boxset in early December. If anyone did not get those movies yet in their possession regardless of the quality of all the movies combined; they would go after the 4K set if it becomes available.

Also about digital from that same magazine; there was some digital media group in the U.S. that was advocating selling more exclusive extras with digital copies of movies. They were also explaining that digital sales of titles have been growing by a very big number. I know that I'm sounding vague here but they were giving more assurances to stakeholders that ownership of digital copies will become secure than it is now.

The link from here is on the top of page 10.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by dublinbluray108

I would say that it will be a big increase when that title comes on the street date; I read from a poster today from the October digital magazine copy of Media Play News that Mission Impossible 1 to 6 will coming out in a 4K Blu-ray & Blu-ray combo boxset in early December. If anyone did not get those movies yet in their possession regardless of the quality of all the movies combined; they would go after the 4K set if it becomes available.

Also about digital from that same magazine; there was some digital media group in the U.S. that was advocating selling more exclusive extras with digital copies of movies. They were also explaining that digital sales of titles have been growing by a very big number. I know that I'm sounding vague here but they were giving more assurances to stakeholders that ownership of digital copies will become secure than it is now.

The link from here is on the top of page 10.

Purchases of content generally, both physical and electronic sell thru combined, was down 7.62% at the end of the second quarter 2018. Electronic sell thru comprised 37.7% of total purchase revenues and disc was 62.3% at the end of the 2nd quarter. The real driving force in digital revenue is subscription streaming, which was up 29.8% during the same period.

https://degonline.org/wp-content/upl...ernal-Grid.pdf

Your article is more recent and shows EST at 41% of all purchases. The 3rd quarter DEG report is due out very soon and it will almost certainly corroborate these figures.

The Digital Entertainment Group is one of the primary sources of data that is cited in the Home Video Sales thread maintained by forum member bruceames.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...postcount=1001

[Wendell R. Breland]

For Target shoppers click here for one of those rare sales on UHD/4K Blu-ray disc sales!!!

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Nobody likes change, but it happens. Technology might slow down and work for a few years, but everything always moves forward.

I've had Netflix and Amazon Prime streaming since DAY ONE. Had a VUDU account sometime before it was sold to Walmart. I won't bore folks with a long list but I can assure you I have been at the forefront of technology, both personal and professional. For example, by the summer of 1972 I had a 4 speaker setup using ambience extraction for quasi 4 channel sound (now have 7.2.4). Another, we went on the air November 1998 with 1080 ATSC broadcast. And one more, in 1983 I started on the design then built a Dolby Surround system to use with LaserDisc and Beta Hi-Fi. I could not afford the Fosgate-Tate system of the day.

So you may want to think twice before you make statements like that about me because I have been WAY ahead of you all the way.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by octagon

Sure but we don't appear to be anywhere near that point with regard to either data storage or transmission.

True but data is still stored based on methodology created many years ago. Data densities continue to advance but its still the same old electric motor, magnetic platters and recording/playback heads. You may find this article on HAMR HDD’s interesting.

Still waiting for a PC using quantum technology to replace my old, antiquated one using very old binary technology.