81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[BillCable]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Seriously though, how stupid is Universal purely from a business stand point? I mean, I can understand the BD exclusive studios not going neutral since they are enjoying far better sales, but what excuse does Universal have. How do they justify to their stock holders or parent company that what they are doing is right? I just don't understand it.

The mantras I hear are:
"The installed base is still too small to make any moves."
"They're only selling a few thousand titles in High-Def, while they sell hundreds of thousands in DVD... High-Def is just a blip right now."
"HD-DVD still has a huge edge in stand-alone players."
"Nobody uses their PS3 to play movies."

So they're looking at the long view, counting on the stand-alone ratio to hold long-term, and HD-DVD to eventually be bigger.

But the sales of 300 this week disprove mantras 2, 3 & 4. 250K discs in a week is serious sales. Not possible to ignore. And since it looks like Blu-ray sold more copies than the total stand-alone installed base, it proves people are using the PS3 for movies. Hopefully it'll be enough to pressure Universal on an earlier move. I'm sure they would have loved to have sold 3x as many copies of Bourne as they did.

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by tvted

I personally want a lot of what Universal has to offer, but if they do not upgrade the encodes they have recently provided I certainly can live without them.

ted

Yes, I don't forsee them selling a lot of BDs either if they don't improve the quality.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by BillCable

And since it looks like Blu-ray sold more copies than the total stand-alone installed base, it proves people are using the PS3 for movies.

Wow! There's a great way of looking at it:

They sold more copies of 300 on Blu-ray in the first week then there are HD DVD stand-alones.

pwned

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Wow! There's a great way of looking at it:

They sold more copies of 300 on Blu-ray in the first week then there are HD DVD stand-alones.

pwned

I think he meant more sales of 300 than # of BD sa-players.

The stat re hd-dvd players is good too. Someone should post it on AVS.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

I think he meant more sales of 300 than # of BD sa-players.

The stat re hd-dvd players is good too. Someone should post it on AVS.

Maybe, I just thought it was a great way of looking at things.

Them: Stand-alone players are all that matter

Us: OK, we just bought more copies of a title for our systems then there are stand-alones of yours.

[Rob Zuber]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

How do they justify to their stock holders or parent company that what they are doing is right? I just don't understand it.

There has got to be money changing hands somewhere, most likely from Microsoft in the form of cash or services (like encoding services).

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Maybe, I just thought it was a great way of looking at things.

Them: Stand-alone players are all that matter

Us: OK, we just bought more copies of a title for our systems then there are stand-alones of yours.

I can just imagine accusations saying that BD "fanboys" bought multiple copies to:

1. Skew warner's #s

2. Make above stat possible wrt hd-dvd players

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by richteer

The ironic thing is that if/when they go neutral, the war will be over and (I reckon) sales will go through the roof because everyone waiting on the sidelines for the war to be over will hop on board. Everyone will win (except Toshiba)!

I don't quite agree with this statement. On numerous boards I have seen the same comment made that once (and if at all) Universal goes Blu the war will be over. Call me a skeptic but I think that it would take a substantially stronger push since Microsoft appear so determined to play the Trojan Horse. Really, as far as I am concerned it isn't even Universal that blurs the picture, it is Microsoft and they are doing it quite well.

On a side note: is there any hard evidence pertaining to Universal's 2007 HD-DVD commitment. I would love to read a reliable article on the issue.

Pro-B

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Seriously though, how stupid is Universal purely from a business stand point? I mean, I can understand the BD exclusive studios not going neutral since they are enjoying far better sales, but what excuse does Universal have. How do they justify to their stock holders or parent company that what they are doing is right? I just don't understand it.

Just for the sake of discussion let's say that Universal is trying to force the prices of Blu-ray standalones down. They may accomplish getting that to happen sooner with their current stance. Even if they are going neutral at CES. I imagine that if they do decide that they are probably going to go neutral that they will ask for some concession from the Blu-ray side before doing so. I think what is happening is helping to add more pressure over time to Universal, but the war isn't over and the Blu-ray side needs to keep that in mind in order to keep the pressure on them. I could see them wanting to make sure that Chinese companies get approved to make Blu-ray standalones soon (first half of 2008) before agreeing to go neutral.

--Darin

[ra1024]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

I don't quite agree with this statement. On numerous boards I have seen the same comment made that once (and if at all) Universal goes Blu the war will be over. Call me a skeptic but I think that it would take a substantially stronger push since Microsoft appear so determined to play the Trojan Horse.

While Toshiba wouldn't likely stop making players immediately, Uni going neutral would essentially end the format war since there would be no reason to buy into HD DVD. If you were a consumer looking to buy a player, would you buy a format that had 70% of the movies or the format that had 100% of the movies? I think retailers would quickly stop selling HD DVD players even if Toshiba kept making them if BR had 100% studio support.

Originally Posted by darinp2

I imagine that if they do decide that they are probably going to go neutral that they will ask for some concession from the Blu-ray side before doing so.

I think they are quickly reaching a point where they wouldn't get any concessions. The BDA needed Uni a year ago, they would like to have them now, but by Q1 of 2008, I don't think they'll even care if they go neutral. If the sales percentages reach 80/20 and more retailers go BR exclusive, Universal will no longer have the impact on the format war they could have now. Personally, I would love to see Universal wait too long and have the BDA stick it to them for dragging this out.

[theknub]

the other major loss that could end this would be an agnostic studio such as paramount going exclusive to blu.

[WickyWoo]

While Toshiba wouldn't likely stop making players immediately, Uni going neutral would essentially end the format war since there would be no reason to buy into HD DVD

Let's put it this way. It took Sony over 10 years to stop making consumer Beta decks, and almost 20 to stop making blank tapes.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Let's put it this way. It took Sony over 10 years to stop making consumer Beta decks, and almost 20 to stop making blank tapes.

Comparing the potential lifespan of HD DVD to the actual lifespan of Beta is like comparing the space shuttle to a roast chicken.

In other words, somewhat different entities.

I can't really be bothered to explain it now (sorry, about that) but if it isn't already obvious then an explanation probably won't help.

However, there's a few clues in this Wikipedia feature:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betamax

[The Big Blue]

ownage confirmed

More good news for HD DVD

[Helicon]

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

ownage confirmed

More good news for HD DVD

"the Blu-ray Disc version of 300 is outselling the HD DVD version, 65% to 35%"

[bluflu]

Originally Posted by Helicon

"the Blu-ray Disc version of 300 is outselling the HD DVD version, 65% to 35%"

I don't believe it. Not the part about Blu-ray outselling HD DVD 2:1, but the part about Peter Bracke from HD Digest admitting the future looks tough for HD DVD.

[The Big Blue]

I'm wondering if the HD peeps will turn on him now for pointing out the obvious.

[WickyWoo]

Comparing the potential lifespan of HD DVD to the actual lifespan of Beta is like comparing the space shuttle to a roast chicken.

In other words, somewhat different entities.

Not when you're comparing stubborness

[Anthony P]

I don't quite agree with this statement. On numerous boards I have seen the same comment made that once (and if at all) Universal goes Blu the war will be over. Call me a skeptic but I think that it would take a substantially stronger push since Microsoft appear so determined to play the Trojan Horse. Really, as far as I am concerned it isn't even Universal that blurs the picture, it is Microsoft and they are doing it quite well.

The issue is that if Universal goes Blu, it makes it harder to convince people to buy an HD DVD player. It also means that some that have been sitting on the fence will feal comfortable to buy. In essence one side almost stops growing and the other gets a big boost.

On a side note: is there any hard evidence pertaining to Universal's 2007 HD-DVD commitment. I would love to read a reliable article on the issue.

you never will. Such tactics are semi illegal because they are anti competitive. So most of it is in “code” you know, like MS going to Universal and saying we will buy many copies of King Kong at inflated prices to include in our add-ons if you will….

[GaS]

I am thinking we crack 61% "since inception" on the Nielsens this week.