Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[PenguinInfinity]

Predicting that EST would fail is based on looking at market patterns and seeing that it isn't gaining traction. I never thought it was particularly insightful.

But most of your predictions are completely counter to facts and market patterns:
You've predicted that TVs will die out despite the fact that they continue to sell better and better.
You've predicted that short videos will replace everything else even though binge-watching, serialized shows, and long movies are more popular than ever.
You've predicted that everyone will watch videos at high speeds and the ability to watch at normal speeds will be removed even though that option being around for over a decade on many devices hasn't had any negative effects.

One accurate prediction that was based on facts and market patterns doesn't give any credibility to all of your ridiculous predictions.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Predicting that EST would fail is based on looking at market patterns and seeing that it isn't gaining traction. I never thought it was particularly insightful.

But most of your predictions are completely counter to facts and market patterns:
You've predicted that TVs will die out despite the fact that they continue to sell better and better.
You've predicted that short videos will replace everything else even though binge-watching, serialized shows, and long movies are more popular than ever.
You've predicted that everyone will watch videos at high speeds and the ability to watch at normal speeds will be removed even though that option being around for over a decade on many devices hasn't had any negative effects.

One accurate prediction that was based on facts and market patterns doesn't give any credibility to all of your ridiculous predictions.

Four years ago, the market could have gone either way. Even longer than that in Fact, I was saying EST wouldn’t be a success. However, I knew someone would come back with that. At the time Digital HD was seeing respectable growth. (Although not outstanding for a new format)



I also predicted the death of UV, but hey ho.

[Steedeel]

I think I have shown great restraint actually, considering digital fanboys were rejoicing when Oppo pulled out of the market.

Vudu might survive, it might not. The fact is, Walmart have just finally told the world that digital EST isn’t doing the business. Vudu has been a giant in this area so...........

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Four years ago, the market could have gone either way. Even longer than that in Fact, I was saying EST wouldn’t be a success. However, I knew someone would come back with that.

I also predicted the death of UV, but hey ho.

By 2010 subscription streaming was already making more than double the annual revenue of EST and it's gotten much bigger since then. Anyone who thought that EST was going to be a big success after that was a fool, it was obvious that hardly anyone wanted to buy digital movies.

I don't know what this nonsense about it going either way four years ago is about.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

By 2010 subscription streaming was already making more than double the annual revenue of EST and it's gotten much bigger since then. Anyone who thought that EST was going to be a big success after that was a fool, it was obvious that hardly anyone wanted to buy digital movies.

I don't know what this nonsense about it going either way four years ago is about.

Oh yes, you are saying that now with the benefit of hindsight. Digital HD had a spell where it made good numbers with a few Pixar and Marvel films and some were saying growth was increasing steadily.

By the way, UV didn’t really become established until 2012. Before that, digital copies were SD and the freebies were codes for SD low bit rate copies for smartphones.

So, nothing was obvious at all. Digital HD wasn’t a thing in 2010, at least not in this country. If it was a thing in Your country, it certainly wasn’t fully formed.

[PenguinInfinity]

Just about all of your predictions are about the end of something.

You've predicted the end of EST. That may happen but it was never particularly popular in the first place.

You've also predicted the end of TVs, long movies, normal speed, and sitting. All of those have had extreme popularity for over 70 years and continue to have extreme popularity. There is zero evidence of any of them going away.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Just about all of your predictions are about the end of something.

You've predicted the end of EST. That may happen but it was never particularly popular in the first place.

You've also predicted the end of TVs, long movies, normal speed, and sitting. All of those have had extreme popularity for over 70 years and continue to have extreme popularity. There is zero evidence of any of them going away.

I was right about Digital HD. Let’s just focus on that for today!

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I was right about Digital HD. Let’s just focus on that for today!

Fine, just don't bring it up when we point out the absurdity of your other predictions in the future.

[avs commenter]

Originally Posted by rui no onna

Crowded?

For EST, reckon iTunes and VUDU have the lion share of that particular market. Amazon's primary focus is on subscriptions and despite the massive number of Android users, I expect more of them torrent rather than buy from Google Play.

If Wal-Mart's bowing out, that doesn't say anything particularly good about the future of EST. Oh well, I still have my Blu-rays and DVDs. Majority of my digital copies are on Movies Anywhere, too. It's primarily digital copies of TV series that I'd lose but I still have the discs anyway.

That said, wonder if this is why the Disc+Digital option is missing for most of the titles purported to have it.

EST providers: iTunes, vudu, Amazon, google, Microsoft, MA, FandangoNow, redbox, and soon to have AMC . I’m probably missing a couple too

There’s always go to be a demand for EST just as there is for disc. But with the crowded marketplace I doubt many are that profitable except iTunes

[rui no onna]

Originally Posted by avs commenter

EST providers: iTunes, vudu, Amazon, google, Microsoft, MA, FandangoNow, redbox, and soon to have AMC . I’m probably missing a couple too

There’s always go to be a demand for EST just as there is for disc. But with the crowded marketplace I doubt many are that profitable except iTunes

As mentioned earlier, I believe iTunes followed by VUDU have the lion share of that market. Guessing Amazon and Google round up 3 and 4 with the rest likely having negligible market share. Movies Anywhere is more locker than actual sales channel.

When what is most likely the number 2 provider thinks EST is unsustainable, that doesn't look good.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Jeff Bewkes, CEO of Warner Bros. (before AT&T) saw the EST writing on the wall when he commented “UltraViolet has stalled” which is the same as saying EST did not do nothing near like we thought it would.

Have stated before but will repeat: Last figures for EST by vendor, iTunes 60%. That just does leave much for the other vendors. Actual profits from EST, figures are as scarce as hens teeth.

The updated streaming graveyard:

Best Buy CinemaNow
Flixster
Paramount Store
Red One UHD movie/video download service
Sony Pictures Store
Sony FMP-X1 and FMP-X10 UHD movie/video download service
Sony ULTRA
Sony Playstation Vue shutting down on January 30, 2020
Target Ticket
UltraFlix and Nanotech UHD movie/video streaming service
UltraViolet (UV)
Verizon Go90
VUDU fate unknown at this time

[rui no onna]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Jeff Bewkes, CEO of Warner Bros. (before AT&T) saw the EST writing on the wall when he commented “UltraViolet has stalled” which is the same as saying EST did not do nothing near like we thought it would.

With all the roadblocks to digital video, is it any wonder? For quite a long time, you needed an Apple device for iTunes videos, FireTV for Amazon videos and Roku for VUDU. Meanwhile, Netflix, Hulu, etc. happily played on pretty much whatever device you had. The RIAA eventually caved and let EST music go DRM-free so those play either natively or after conversion on any device you own.

I'm happy to get digital copy codes with my Blu-ray purchases but I'm certainly not willing to pay Blu-ray money for something that digital providers' terms of service state could be taken away from me anytime. Because of DRM, even if you're able to download to your PC, you still may not be able to play back content due to activation issues when a service shutters.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Fine, just don't bring it up when we point out the absurdity of your other predictions in the future.

Lol.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Jeff Bewkes, CEO of Warner Bros. (before AT&T) saw the EST writing on the wall when he commented “UltraViolet has stalled” which is the same as saying EST did not do nothing near like we thought it would.

Have stated before but will repeat: Last figures for EST by vendor, iTunes 60%. That just does leave much for the other vendors. Actual profits from EST, figures are as scarce as hens teeth.

The updated streaming graveyard:

Best Buy CinemaNow
Flixster
Paramount Store
Red One UHD movie/video download service
Sony Pictures Store
Sony FMP-X1 and FMP-X10 UHD movie/video download service
Sony ULTRA
Sony Playstation Vue shutting down on January 30, 2020
Target Ticket
UltraFlix and Nanotech UHD movie/video streaming service
UltraViolet (UV)
Verizon Go90
VUDU fate unknown at this time

Here, we have lost half a dozen retailers. The top three are Sky Store (a internet powered EST store accessible to all the U.K. via Satelite subscription, app and the Now TV streaming box/stick.
ITunes and Amazon round up the trio.
Google may gain slightly more customers now digital codes are redeemed through them.

However, digital is just scraping by here as well. Netflix has around 10 million accounts last I heard, although I imagine accounts are being shared quite a bit. I think it’s realistic that around 15-16 million have access at the very least. Amazon and Now TV are the next best. I think Netflix has room for a little bit more growth here but Disney will be a must for many families.

I actually think Sky will suffer the most. Many may just wait for Marvel and Pixar films to drop on that service.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by rui no onna

Meanwhile, Netflix, Hulu, etc. happily played on pretty much whatever device you had.

Below is from a AVS poster:

No Atmos with Amazon Video 4K with Apple4K
No Atmos with Netflix on 4K Fire TV devices
No HDR or 4K with Youtube on AppleTV4K
No HDR with Youtube on Shield 2015/2017/2019
No Atmos with Neflix/Amazon Video on Shield 2015/2017

I could add several more if needed. Have always said streaming was a CF because there was no central governing body like RIAA, DVD Forum, BDA, etc. Streaming is every man for himself!!

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Are you kidding me? Anyone that has been a member for more than a year will have seen anyone of my many many posts stating EST is dead in the water or that it doesn’t have any legs!

You will have seen such posts as well. The growth just wasn’t there, not for a new format. I suggested that MA would be the equivalent of ITunes downloads, still there but the locker content just gathering dust while the Koolaid drinkers move onto subscription streaming. (Replace Spotify with Netflix and Disney+). I was saying this four years ago when digital growth was starting out. So, it wasn’t w obvious observation (before you say it was).

Now, will those guys come forward and say I was right? Of course they won’t, people hate to be proven wrong. The fact is, I was right. The lurkers will see that but like I said, silence. That’s human nature for you.

The fact you are asking for proof astonishes me, it really does. Unless you have joined Vilya and our attention challenged millennial friends in that department?

Why do you insist upon dragging me into your little spats with other members? Don't we have enough quality time together as it is?

Millenials are not "attention span challenged"; they binge watch content for hours on end and routinely pay to watch 3 hour long movies at the theater. Plus, the science says you are wrong about this and wrong you are. Your fixation upon and dislike of millenials is remarkable and akin to an obsession.

I do not quite see what you are celebrating here, though, regarding the accuracy of your predictions; digital is not "dead in the water." It does have very slight growth around 3.3% for last year. In any event, digital purchases have not disappeared en masse and several sellers remain including the one everyone is speculating about, Vudu. Your celebration of digital's death is premature and your prediction of its death remains unrealized.

UV did close; you had a 50% of getting that one right, but you lacked the clairvoyance to say when, so, sorry, you get no credit there beyond making a half-assed unspecified guess that any monkey could have made with the same chance for being accurate. Further, UV has effectively been replaced making its closure pretty much inconsequential.

Your other predictions about the utter end of movies, the end of TVs, taxes for sitting, vegans coming after everyone's LCD screens, and more are so delusional that even if you ever do get anything right it won't be enough to rescue your zero credibility.

[rui no onna]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Below is from a AVS poster:

I could add several more if needed. Have always said streaming was a CF because there was no central governing body like RIAA, DVD Forum, BDA, etc. Streaming is every man for himself!!

Missing features and not always highest quality available, sure. To be honest, most folks probably watch on non-4K TVs with either TV speaker or soundbar anyway. That or on mobile devices.

For $8.99-15.99 per month, Netflix is a pretty decent complement/substitute to advertisement-heavy cable or satellite (assuming, of course, it actually has content you like).

The thing is Netflix is actually playable on most devices whereas until recently, entire VOD/EST services were missing depending on what device one has. Amazon and VUDU were only released on Apple TV in 2017. iTunes is being made available on non-Apple/PC platforms this year. VUDU, afaik, still doesn't actually have an official FireTV app.

Streaming and VOD/EST aren't meant for videophiles/audiophiles anyway. They're geared more towards cost and convenience. Fast food, if you will. Netflix delivered on cheap and convenient. VUDU, etc. not so much.

iTunes works because apart from being one of the first to market, there are a lot of well-heeled folks (particularly in the US) that are all in on the Apple ecosystem.

[Vilya]

The very idea of purchasing movies and TV shows on any format, physical or digital, is waning. People who prefer to buy their content are very much in the minority. We are both, digital and disc fans, in a market that is effectively a niche market.

Incredibly low priced subscription streaming and affordable video on demand are making purchases increasingly less relevant to a large number of people. When people can subscribe to 3, even 4, streaming services for less than the cost of a basic cable TV package, paying $15-$30 to purchase ONE movie on any format is extravagant.

Declining purchases are nothing to take pleasure in as these declines are affecting all purchase methods.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Why do you insist upon dragging me into your little spats with other members? Don't we have enough quality time together as it is?

Millenials are not "attention span challenged"; they binge watch content for hours on end and routinely pay to watch 3 hour long movies at the theater. Plus, the science says you are wrong about this and wrong you are. Your fixation upon and dislike of millenials is remarkable and akin to an obsession.

I do not quite see what you are celebrating here, though, regarding the accuracy of your predictions; digital is not "dead in the water." It does have very slight growth around 3.3% for last year. In any event, digital purchases have not disappeared en masse and several sellers remain including the one everyone is speculating about, Vudu. Your celebration of digital's death is premature and your prediction of its death remains unrealized.

UV did close; you had a 50% of getting that one right, but you lacked the clairvoyance to say when, so, sorry, you get no credit there beyond making a half-assed unspecified guess that any monkey could have made with the same chance for being accurate. Further, UV has effectively been replaced making its closure pretty much inconsequential.

Your other predictions about the utter end of movies, the end of TVs, taxes for sitting, vegans coming after everyone's LCD screens, and more are the delusions of a certifiable madman.

I don’t dislike millennials. I dislike how they treat films (in general)

I dint dislike people as a rule.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Why do you insist upon dragging me into your little spats with other members? Don't we have enough quality time together as it is?

Millenials are not "attention span challenged"; they binge watch content for hours on end and routinely pay to watch 3 hour long movies at the theater. Plus, the science says you are wrong about this and wrong you are. Your fixation upon and dislike of millenials is remarkable and akin to an obsession.

I do not quite see what you are celebrating here, though, regarding the accuracy of your predictions; digital is not "dead in the water." It does have very slight growth around 3.3% for last year. In any event, digital purchases have not disappeared en masse and several sellers remain including the one everyone is speculating about, Vudu. Your celebration of digital's death is premature and your prediction of its death remains unrealized.

UV did close; you had a 50% of getting that one right, but you lacked the clairvoyance to say when, so, sorry, you get no credit there beyond making a half-assed unspecified guess that any monkey could have made with the same chance for being accurate. Further, UV has effectively been replaced making its closure pretty much inconsequential.

Your other predictions about the utter end of movies, the end of TVs, taxes for sitting, vegans coming after everyone's LCD screens, and more are the delusions of a certifiable madman.

Yet, creatives in Hollywood (the people who make our films) are just as unhappy with certain developments as I. Read Mr Pitt, Brad Bird etc..