Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Netflix is a little bit different in that almost all of their revenue comes from their monthly subscription fees. The irony is that their disc by mail service still makes a tiny profit, but it can not even put a dent into the huge losses that their streaming business has incurred every year since 2011.

Other streaming services don't have all of their eggs in one poorly woven basket. Disney, Apple, Amazon, etc. have many diverse revenue streams while Netflix essentially has just one.

Get what you are saying and agree. But I was not just limiting myself to streaming. It was a general point on tech companies today. Uber, Pinterest, Spotify.... they all lose money year after year with no real plan on how to eventually become profitable.

Companies don't need to be profitable to garner investor interest.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Get what you are saying and agree. But I was not just limiting myself to streaming. It was a general point on tech companies today. Uber, Pinterest, Spotify.... they all lose money year after year with no real plan on how to eventually become profitable.

Companies don't need to be profitable to garner investor interest.

Other than those "in and out" investors who are just looking to "buy low and sell high", long term investors should eventually grow tired of a company that never makes a profit and one that in fact loses more money with each passing year. How long will investors have faith in a company that seemingly only knows how to grow their debt into an ever bigger beastie? How long can Netflix keep borrowing money when their debt grows larger ever year? They have taken out eight 1 billion dollar plus loans in the last five years alone.

[Vilya]

Another popular catalog title is getting a 4K disc release this year: Top Gun 1986

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...3#post17266953

The hits they keep a comin'

[Vilya]

The number of titles released on disc have been tallied and according to the DVD & Blu-ray Release Report there were 3,027 titles released on blu-ray (which includes 4K) in 2019 and that is a 7% increase over 2018.

The number of DVD titles released were up also; there were 10,866 titles released on DVD in 2019 and that is an increase of 2.4% over 2018.

There were 13,893 titles released on disc in 2019.

253,621 titles have been released on disc since the inception of the DVD format. No streaming provider and no digital seller offers anywhere near that selection.

2019BlurayReleaseReport.jpg

2019DVDReleaseReport.jpg

[Member-496106]

Netflix is making gradual changes so they don’t make their subscribers too upset. At some point though, my bet is that it won’t resemble its current form at all. If anyone has a favourite show that isn’t made by Netflix, their best bet is to either secure that show on disc or be prepared to eventually pay for a subscription to a different service.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PhysicalMediaNut

Netflix is making gradual changes so they don’t make their subscribers too upset. At some point though, my bet is that it won’t resemble its current form at all. If anyone has a favourite show that isn’t made by Netflix, their best bet is to either secure that show on disc or be prepared to eventually pay for a subscription to a different service.

Netflix are going nowhere. They are a juggernaut. I wish that wasn’t the case, but it is.

Regardless, I’m buying disc until

A) I die
B) Discs are not made anymore

[Boccaccio]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

I'll be buying discs until I die regardless. Even if they stop making new ones I'll still have plenty of old ones to buy. With more than 253,621 titles released on disc I'm sure that I'll always be able to find something good that's new to me.

There's no chance I'll ever have to resort to streaming.

I agree, but it will be a sad day when/if no more new discs will be made and the only option to watch new stuff is through streaming.
I hope that day never comes.

There's some stuff from Netflix I really want to see but I refuse to get a subscription. I hope Criterion has a good deal with Netflix so we can get discs.
I don't mind waiting a year. I have enough to see in the meantime.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

I'll be buying discs until I die regardless. Even if they stop making new ones I'll still have plenty of old ones to buy. With more than 253,621 titles released on disc I'm sure that I'll always be able to find something good that's new to me.

There's no chance I'll ever have to resort to streaming.

There's no chance that I will buy digital content. I see SVOD as being no different than Pay TV, both are just sources for what is almost entirely disposable entertainment.

If I watch only what I own right now it would take me 6.75 years to get it done if I watched for 8 hours a day every single day. Between the more than a quarter million titles already released on disc and the fact that we are getting ever more titles on disc each year, my cup definitely runneth over.

[sapiendut]

If I watch 1 movie per day, it will be enough for me to watch my movies for about 3,000 days. Some if those movies are TV seasons (the entire X Files series is considered as 1 movie).

I’m good for a while

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by PhysicalMediaNut

Netflix is making gradual changes so they don’t make their subscribers too upset. At some point though, my bet is that it won’t resemble its current form at all. If anyone has a favourite show that isn’t made by Netflix, their best bet is to either secure that show on disc or be prepared to eventually pay for a subscription to a different service.

Why pay at all when I can just be one of the many that share someone else's account?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Other than those "in and out" investors who are just looking to "buy low and sell high", long term investors should eventually grow tired of a company that never makes a profit and one that in fact loses more money with each passing year. How long will investors have faith in a company that seemingly only knows how to grow their debt into an ever bigger beastie? How long can Netflix keep borrowing money when their debt grows larger ever year? They have taken out eight 1 billion dollar plus loans in the last five years alone.

I did not say I invest in such stuff, it is also why I compare it to a Ponzi scheme.IMHO sooner or later the stock price (in any company that can't be profitable and is insanely over valued) will tumble and someone will end up holding the bag and they will lose a lot of money.

But it is not just the in and out investor, the simple reality is if someone bought Netflix in 2010 @10$ today it is worth ~340$ that is a good return on investment even without any dividends (or profit from the company.) so I can understand how a long term investor can have a huge smile on their face. The problem is what happens if next month or next year or... that stock price tumbles to 20$ then the performance is bad and what happens if it drops to 10$ or 5$ or 0$, with no dividends it is all really lost.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

It truly is an absolutely wonderful time to be a fan of physical media! I don't understand how anyone can think that DVD or Blu-ray will be gone in a few years.

It's also worth noting that those are just the number of releases in the United States. There are also plenty of great releases in other countries too. Many online stores ship worldwide and the equipment to play imports is neither expensive nor hard to find.

agree. The issue is naturally or unnaturally people like to have blinders on. If you are not interested in something it is easy not to know what is really happening in the real world. I remember a few years ago when I was discussing records with someone. I took out my phone went on-line showed it had some models in stock at the local Walmart, BestBuy... then I went to record stores and pointed out there were a few places you could buy new records. The guy did not care about records did not try to find out how available it really is and mistakenly assumed that it was impossible to find because he did not notice prevalent it is. On the other hand when someone still tries to pretend (after all the facts are brought before them over and over again) then that person is just trolling.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Netflix are going nowhere. They are a juggernaut.

agree, but the same could have been said about blockbuster a few years ago

On the other hand I really don't get why anyone would care. If it is EST and you lose the content because the company shut down then you lost everything you bought with it. But it is rental. The month you stop paying you lose Netflix, and if Netflix goes down you stop paying Netflix and you can rent from somewhere else.

A more interesting discussion for people that care about streaming is the compartmentalization of content. When Cable was new you had a cheap package and everything was included, then you had the addition of speciality channels and speciality packages (I want basic+ sports+ family +movies+ news+ music) which lead to ballooning of costs with every little additional content being viewed. Is the same thing happening to streaming and how much will people accept it (need CBS al access for Star trek need Disney+ for Disney stuff....)

[Tenny80]

I am a fan of both. Streaming is the future and will eventually take over but physical is a LONG LONG way from dying. I think we may see in the next 10 years that places like Best Buy, Walmart, etc stop carrying most titles in store and offer it online only and that will go for another 10 years. In store will be a small end cap with new release movies.

I buy physical for movies with replay value to me. I don't typically spend over $15 for a 4k or $10 for a bluray.

I also subscribe to Netflix for 16.99 a month and I paid $89.99 for a year of Disney+ I am Canadian so these are cdn amounts. For netflix if I watch 2-3 movies a month it is worth it. Disney the kids are watching a ton of movies, i'm working my way through the Marvel and Star Wars movies. I am certainly getting my moneys worth, but likely will not renew it after the year as i'll have watched what I wanted to buy then. Streaming is also really handy for my wife, she works overnights and is allowed to watch movies/tv while at work (group home) so she uses them a TON.

They both have there place, it does not need to be one or another. Having said that I do not see the value in "buying" or renting the movies on a service like Xbox, Vudu, etc. Instead of paying $6 to rent it, i'd rather wait a couple months and buy the physical disc for 10 bucks. Buying just seems wrong to me, so i'll likely never do that haha. I have traded digital codes on occasion as well, and that's worked out well for me.

[cheez avenger]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

agree, but the same could have been said about blockbuster a few years ago

The issue is that Blockbuster did not change or adapt to the emerging trends, whereas Netflix did, and created several business models and platforms and they thrived.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cheez avenger

The issue is that Blockbuster did not change or adapt to the emerging trends, whereas Netflix did, and created several business models and platforms and they thrived.

Netflix is not thriving; they have not made a profit since 2011. They are $12.43 billion in debt at the end of 2019 and they are projected to be $14.5 billion in debt by the end of 2020. Ever more competition, and some of it much more affordably priced, is not helping them, either.

Yes, their share price remains high while confidence in them endures, but they have not made a cent in 8 years and no can say with any certainty when, or if, they ever will.

[Tenny80]

Originally Posted by cheez avenger

The issue is that Blockbuster did not change or adapt to the emerging trends, whereas Netflix did, and created several business models and platforms and they thrived.

Blockbuster had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million dollars and passed it up.. They had no vision.

[Boccaccio]

Originally Posted by Tenny80

Blockbuster had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million dollars and passed it up.. They had no vision.

When was this ? Seems like a low number unless it's a really long time ago.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Tenny80

Blockbuster had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million dollars and passed it up.. They had no vision.

Netflix was struggling with its disc rental business back in 2000 when their CEO actually went to Blockbuster and offered themselves for sale for $50 million. Blockbuster declined the offer because Netflix was losing money at that time. Ironically, Netflix is still losing money today. Netflix did not start streaming movies until 2007.

Blockbuster also thought in 2007 that they could compete with Netflix with their own streaming service. They were too late to the party and Netflix had the jump and the lead on them. Blockbuster had no content unique to them and Netflix had most of the licensing deals well in place before Blockbuster dipped their toes into the streaming waters.

https://www.mediapost.com/publicatio...n-netflix.html

[cheez avenger]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Netflix is not thriving; they have not made a profit since 2011. They are $12.43 billion in debt at the end of 2019 and they are projected to be in debt $14.5 billion by the end of 2020. Ever more competition, and some of it much more affordably priced, is not helping them, either.

Yes, their share price remains high while confidence in them endures, but they have not made a cent in 8 years and no can say with any certainty when, or if, they ever will.

If they're not thriving then they're heading on a downward slope? No, they are a juggernaut and they're not going anywhere.