Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

You're correct that a decline in sales doesn't necessarily mean that profit margins have worsened (although if you produce fewer discs of a given title, the price of each increases). But profit margin is less important than total net revenue and when sales go down substantially, studios will put their efforts elsewhere. In North America, BD sales are down 24% so far this year. In 2019, BD was $1.598 billion (at list prices). It was $2.3b in 2013 and it's gone down from there. UHD hasn't helped - the market share is quite small.

At some point, especially for titles out of the top 100, executives figure "why bother"? In 2019, titles below the top 100 grossed less than $1m at list prices. That's probably only around $600K at most back to the studio.

In 2018 in the U.S., subscription streaming, electronic sell-through and VOD grossed $14.5b. Theatrical grossed $11.89b. Physical, kiosk, subscriptions and brick & mortar rental grossed $5.76b. Since then, streaming revenues have increased and physical media revenues have decreased. in 2019, consumers spent $15.9 billion on subscription streaming, which now accounts for 63% of the entire home entertainment market. BD + DVD was $3.4b. So where do you think the studios are going to put their efforts?

It doesn't mean there won't be any BD's. No one has said that. But as I predicted years ago, it will mean fewer releases and a decline in the number of restorations, special features, special packaging, etc. And that's exactly what's happened. People here tore me down time after time because fanboys live in denial. If it's accurate that Disney is abandoning physical, it's definitely unfortunate, but it should not be a surprise. Also strategically, Disney (and others) have placed their futures on the streaming business. And as others have posted, other studios will indeed follow suit. And if because of COVID, AMC or Regal goes under, the studios will do everything they can to make streaming and VOD an ever bigger success.

It happened in the record industry and it's happening here. The market has spoken for better or worse. While BD might still be better quality, the average person cannot tell the difference and wouldn't care even if they could.

Some people here have mostly certainly said exactly that and they have been saying it for years. The person who first thanked your post tonight has been one of the loudest, most frequent, and the happiest to predict the utter death of physical media.

We have yet to see fewer releases. Every year has seen slightly more releases on both DVD and on blu-ray which includes 4K. We would not be getting more releases if the studios and their licensees did not see the profit in offering still more titles.

We are all aware of declining sales for physical media and not just physical media, but content period. It's not just 4K discs failing to reverse this decline; digital sales haven't helped much, either. Content purchases have been declining every year since 2011.

For all of subscription streaming's growth it is still a very distant second to pay TV services although pay TVs dominance is slowly eroding. Essentially, one recurring rental method is gradually shifting towards another recurring rental method.

Finally, the average person doesn't buy a lot of things that an enthusiast would, but that doesn't mean there isn't a profitable market for high quality products. All manner of specialty and luxury goods appeal to considerably smaller sections of the population.

How many people own a real multi-channel surround sound system compared to those average consumers listening with a TVs built-in speakers or a $99 soundbar? Enough people do elect to buy the former that genuine surround sound systems are offered at every price point imaginable and even some at prices that stagger the imagination. No one questions the continued demand for such elaborate audio systems even though the average person does not own one and likely never will.

We live in a world where you can buy a bottle of Courvoisier VS cognac for $29.99 all the way up to a bottle of Louis XIII de Remy Martin Grande Champagne cognac for $31,300. There's a whole world of wonders beyond the bargain priced merchandise commonly purchased by the masses and many people are willing to pay a whole lot more to get a whole lot better quality.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

https://www.androidpolice.com/2020/0...ed-on-android/

That’s the article I read while absent from the site. Like I told Penguin and others, four years ago when I first brought it up, it was a ultra niche that Chrome users were accessing for YouTube and it was baked into some podcast apps.

Now, it’s on the juggernaut that is Netflix and is about to become mainstream. Judging by comments on another very popular forum/message board, many people already watch YouTube at 1.5-2.0x speeds. I find this more disturbing than Any other threat to film in the long term. I have done for four years now.

Your rerun of the "evils of variable speed playback" story isn't going to get much traction while the angry mob is still marching on Disney's HQ.

I have made it through the first seven episodes now and that is as far as I will get until after my turn as a lab rat. So much to do tomorrow in preparation and I don't want to do any of it.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Your rerun of the "evils of variable speed playback" story isn't going to get much traction while the angry mob is still marching on Disney's HQ.

I have made it through the first seven episodes now and that is as far as I will get until after my turn as a lab rat. So much to do tomorrow in preparation and I don't want to do any of it.

Well now that Disney have denied the story, we can address this worrying development.

Best of luck for your upcoming tests, TP greatness awaits!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

You're correct that a decline in sales doesn't necessarily mean that profit margins have worsened (although if you produce fewer discs of a given title, the price of each increases). But profit margin is less important than total net revenue and when sales go down substantially, studios will put their efforts elsewhere. In North America, BD sales are down 24% so far this year. In 2019, BD was $1.598 billion (at list prices). It was $2.3b in 2013 and it's gone down from there. UHD hasn't helped - the market share is quite small.

At some point, especially for titles out of the top 100, executives figure "why bother"? In 2019, titles below the top 100 grossed less than $1m at list prices. That's probably only around $600K at most back to the studio.

In 2018 in the U.S., subscription streaming, electronic sell-through and VOD grossed $14.5b. Theatrical grossed $11.89b. Physical, kiosk, subscriptions and brick & mortar rental grossed $5.76b. Since then, streaming revenues have increased and physical media revenues have decreased. in 2019, consumers spent $15.9 billion on subscription streaming, which now accounts for 63% of the entire home entertainment market. BD + DVD was $3.4b. So where do you think the studios are going to put their efforts?

It doesn't mean there won't be any BD's. No one has said that. But as I predicted years ago, it will mean fewer releases and a decline in the number of restorations, special features, special packaging, etc. And that's exactly what's happened. People here tore me down time after time because fanboys live in denial. If it's accurate that Disney is abandoning physical, it's definitely unfortunate, but it should not be a surprise. Also strategically, Disney (and others) have placed their futures on the streaming business. And as others have posted, other studios will indeed follow suit. And if because of COVID, AMC or Regal goes under, the studios will do everything they can to make streaming and VOD an ever bigger success.

It happened in the record industry and it's happening here. The market has spoken for better or worse. While BD might still be better quality, the average person cannot tell the difference and wouldn't care even if they could.

Correct, you have been predicting fewer Blu-ray releases since 2011,2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and now 2020. Every year I challenge you to scrutinise Digital HD sales and every year you ignore that request. With the exception of this freakish year, Digital HD was only up by single digit numbers last year. Hardly the growth that will sustain the industry. You really think subscription streaming can replace all the other options? Not a chance.

By the way, Disney just denied that rumour so it’s business as usual. Business as usual for me is receiving my beautifully packaged, feature packed copy of the tv adaptation of ‘The Woman In Black’ Complete with booklet and Condensed script. It’s one of many Blu-ray I have received this year that have been treated with love.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

It doesn't mean there won't be any BD's.

Please make a list of titles that are not already available on disc that you believe will sell in big numbers.

I can help you, there are not very many. The vaults of all the studios have been mined and most have been made available. Because disc do not wear out the market reached near saturation years ago. Anyone with a pea brain should know a market such as this can not have a continuous YoY growth.

Traditional pay TV (cable and satellite) is in the same situation, their markets have saturated. Now they are losing subs to the newer pay TV/ad services (SVOD and AVOD).

EST, no need to look for it at Best Buy, Target or Walmart because they have dumped it but all three continue to sell disc.

I would be zero surprised if one day I click on Vudu or MoviesAnywhere and a message pops up saying “This service has been discontinued”.

As to “good enough”, people have been saying that since the early days of LaserDisc.

[cheez avenger]

I read that article about the sped-up options and looks like those are only options for mobile/laptop/desktop, etc., devices. Netflix said that they do not have plans to implement that feature to the TV apps, which works for me since I do not watch my content on anything smaller than my 65 inch 4K TV.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cheez avenger

I read that article about the sped-up options and looks like those are only options for mobile/laptop/desktop, etc., devices. Netflix said that they do not have plans to implement that feature to the TV apps, which works for me since I do not watch my content on anything smaller than my 65 inch 4K TV.

I think that variable speed playback is mostly used when watching/ listening to lectures, how-to videos, unboxing videos, and other instructional fare. I can't imagine many people using it to watch creative content, especially with a first time viewing, but maybe with a repeat viewing. Even with a repeat, I doubt many would choose to use it with movies and TV shows.

Regardless, it is just an option and options are not mandatory by definition.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I think that variable speed playback is mostly used when watching/ listening to lectures, how-to videos, unboxing videos, and other instructional fare. I can't imagine many people using it to watch creative content, especially with a first time viewing, but maybe with a repeat viewing. Even with a repeat, I doubt many would choose to use it with movies and TV shows.

Regardless, it is just an option and options are not mandatory by definition.

Don’t forget this is a much requested feature. Netflix have gone against industry protests, So there must have been many requests. Netflix is pretty much all entertainment rather than educational so.......

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Regardless of what devices the sped-up options are on they will always be exactly that: options. No one is ever going to be forced to watch anything sped-up so none of us should care that those options exist.

The point is, members were arguing that this is a ultra niche chrome extension for Youtube bingers. Four year later, it’s a locked down feature on the biggest streaming service on the planet.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Don’t forget this is a much requested feature. Netflix have gone against industry protests, So there must have been many requests. Netflix is pretty much all entertainment rather than educational so.......

It doesn't keep me, or anyone else, from watching content at normal speed, so I have no reason to care. It's just another option among many; we're not losing anything here.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Disney today is committed 1000% to streaming. Like it or not.

IMO Disney is totally committed to complete control of their product hence the lawsuit against Sony and full support of the DivX format. It appears to me they are all in on PPV and/or subscription. Remains to be seen what they will do in terms of ownership (physical or EST).

[JohnAV]

Mulan' for $30? Disney Makes Big Premium On-Demand Bet - Hollywood Reporter 8/12/20

The main thing with this has to do with a question can they earn at least $200 Million via PVOD with people restricted by the pandemic to make up for the USA theaters still mostly being closed. If the theaters were open its doubtful this would be doable.

The following chart is very interesting. Notice the majority of people did not sign up for any more streaming hosts because of the pandemic.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

IMO Disney is totally committed to complete control of their product hence the lawsuit against Sony and full support of the DivX format. It appears to me they are all in on PPV and/or subscription. Remains to be seen what they will do in terms of ownership (physical or EST).

Let's get some facts straight:

Sony Corp. of America v. Universal City Studios, Inc., 464 U.S. 417 (1984). It was both Universal and Disney that sued Sony and Universal headed the lawsuit so their name is on it.

DreamWorks, 20th Century Fox, Paramount Pictures and Disney supported the Divx format.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

The main thing with this has to do with a question can they earn at least $200 Million via PVOD with people restricted by the pandemic to make up for the USA theaters still mostly being closed.

One benefit to debuting the film on the Disney+ platform for PVOD is that Disney can bypass marketplaces like iTunes and Amazon Prime to keep more of the profits.

Probably does not make Amazon and Apple very happy. Interesting in that it appears Mulan will not be on MoviesAnywhere. Wonder what happens to Mulan if you drop your sub to Disney+ then resub sometime later.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Let's get some facts straight:

The facts, I made no mention that was ONLY Disney.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

The facts, I made no mention that was ONLY Disney.

LOL - no, you just singled them out.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Wonder what happens to Mulan if you drop your sub to Disney+ then resub sometime later.

That question has yet to be addressed by Disney.

[bhampton]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Disney today is committed 1000% to streaming. Like it or not.

I don’t like it.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I don’t like it.

You have made that VERY clear Brian.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Probably does not make Amazon and Apple very happy. Interesting in that it appears Mulan will not be on MoviesAnywhere. Wonder what happens to Mulan if you drop your sub to Disney+ then resub sometime later.