Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[JohnAV]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

That doesn't answer the question of what will happen if you re-subscribe later.

Logic says you bought access to it if you use the same credentials to return as a subscriber. Besides give enough time, it will be just another title available to everyone. It can't remain a PVOD forever.

[JohnAV]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

There is no reason to assume that Disney is using logic.

So just wait for it not to be PVOD, all you are buying is early access to this before they release it to general subscribers. Buy the physical media when available.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

What is that 1000% out of? They are obviously still releasing titles on physical media, cable TV, and broadcast TV so 1000% must not mean completely. You are using extremely weird math.

That's business as usual. Disney+ and Star are where they are putting in their extra effort. Wait until you see how much of the Fox catalog winds up on Star next year.

[Lizahus]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

I was looking at any comments about the degree of compression vs the type of content that would not compress much vs could compress.

I just upload two pictures that shows comparative figures. They may be helpful for you.
H.266 has 30% to 50% higher compression rate for the same video quality than HEVC.
I myself want to find some test information for some specifics movies that utilizes different codecs.

[Steedeel]

I spoke at length about charging for films by screen size several years ago. I was shot down at the time, but with this new potential model, we are only one brave step away from £30 for a premium VOD title on a tv or projector, £20 for laptop or tablet and finally £10 for smartphone. This would cause the majority of people to go for the cheap option like I suggested, thus increasing smartphone viewing and decreasing tv usage. Some CEO suggested it and I had already been concerned about such a thing, I can see it happening for sure now as studios test different price points for different markets. For example, certain films may not bring in enough money so they offer it cheaper on smartphone devices.

On the topic of Mulan, this is a VERY significant development. If it’s a success we have a new business model for the future. Cinemas would be under huge pressure to have a two weekend gap before VOD.

[Lee A Stewart]

It's very hard to judge the future when you are in the middle of a deadly pandemic. The immediate future (PVOD) is a knee-jerk reaction to the existing situation. Studios have to make money. If theaters are closed or operating under reduced seating arrangements, you still have an audience - at home. Take advantage of it. It isn't at the expense of movie theaters who can't provide the revenue needed due to state health code mandates.

No one knows if audiences will flock back to theaters in two+ weeks. It's one thing for theaters to say they are meeting state health code requirements and another for them to enforce them.

We are no closer to "bending the curve" today then we were 2 months ago. The number of cases and deaths just keep rising.

The unfortunate part is that this situation isn't going to be resolved quickly. We will probably have another year to 18 months of this.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

It's very hard to judge the future when you are in the middle of a deadly pandemic. The immediate future (PVOD) is a knee-jerk reaction to the existing situation. Studios have to make money. If theaters are closed or operating under reduced seating arrangements, you still have an audience - at home. Take advantage of it. It isn't at the expense of movie theaters who can't provide the revenue needed due to state health code mandates.

No one knows if audiences will flock back to theaters in two+ weeks. It's one thing for theaters to say they are meeting state health code requirements and another for them to enforce them.

We are no closer to "bending the curve" today then we were 2 months ago. The number of cases and deaths just keep rising.

The unfortunate part is that this situation isn't going to be resolved quickly. We will probably have another year to 18 months of this.

18 months? I think we will have a vaccine before that.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

18 months? I think we will have a vaccine before that.

First you have to develop a vaccine which BTW is not easy when your foe is a virus.

Once you do develop it you have to test it with larger and larger numbers of test subjects. Not only do you want to see if the vaccine works but if there are any side affects. This takes months

Then you have to manufacturer it. There are 328 million people in the US. What about the rest of the world?

Then you have to administer it to all those people and wait 60 days to see the results which may require a second dose.

Like I said - a year to 18 months from today.

[Lee A Stewart]

This is how they dealt with the 1918 Spanish Flu which infected 500 million and killed 50 million. No vaccine was ever developed because they never heard of a virus before. The microscopes of that time couldn't see it. Originally they thought it was caused by bacteria because that was the smallest organism they could see. So they administered crude antibiotics which of course didn't work. The only thing that worked was S-I-P, Wearing a mask at all times in public and lots of hand washing. It lasted for 2 years and then was gone. Doctors today say that the population developed herd immunity.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

First you have to develop a vaccine which BTW is not easy when your foe is a virus.

Once you do develop it you have to test it with larger and larger numbers of test subjects. Not only do you want to see if the vaccine works but if there are any side affects. This takes months

Then you have to manufacturer it. There are 328 million people in the US. What about the rest of the world?

Then you have to administer it to all those people and wait 60 days to see the results which may require a second dose.

Like I said - a year to 18 months from today.

We will see.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

We will see.

I don't want to be the bearer of bad news but you are being naïve if you think this whole thing is going to be over in the next 3 to 6 months. How much progress have we made in the last 6 months?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

I don't want to be the bearer of bad news but you are being naïve if you think this whole thing is going to be over in the next 3 to 6 months. How much progress have we made in the last 6 months?

You can’t predict the disease though. It could just go without a vaccine, no one knows. Second waves were always likely.

[gotmule]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

I don't want to be the bearer of bad news but you are being naïve if you think this whole thing is going to be over in the next 3 to 6 months. How much progress have we made in the last 6 months?

Moderna started phase 3 in July and there are plans to speed up production of the vaccine. Phase 1 and 2 were successful.

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/...l-vaccine.html

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

You can’t predict the disease though. It could just go without a vaccine, no one knows. Second waves were always likely.

All we can go by is the past:

1918 Spanish Flu lasted two years.

The H2N2 virus pandemic also lasted two years: 1957-1958.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) lasted one year. A vaccine was developed but by the time it was to be administered, it was over.

To make matters worse, we are heading into Flu Season which isn't going to help.

[Lee A Stewart]

Enough about the COVID-19 Pandemic.

How do you see the important 4th quarter/holiday season shaping up for Physical Media?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Enough about the COVID-19 Pandemic.

How do you see the important 4th quarter/holiday season shaping up for Physical Media?

Bad. All bets are off with the current situation. Blu-ray is a hit based format. We need the Marvels, Pixar’s, Bonds, MI, Godzilla’s, FATF etc.. it’s that simple for me.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

All we can go by is the past:

1918 Spanish Flu lasted two years.

The H2N2 virus pandemic also lasted two years: 1957-1958.

2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) lasted one year. A vaccine was developed but by the time it was to be administered, it was over.

To make matters worse, we are heading into Flu Season which isn't going to help.

There you have it. A vaccine was developed but the virus was gone before it could be administered. Same could happen here.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

There you have it. A vaccine was developed but the virus was gone before it could be administered. Same could happen here.

No surprise you would zero in on that one (Hope Springs Eternal). The bad news is that COVID-19 is a much more deadly virus. Less than 13,000 died of that virus. We are already up to 166,000 deaths in the USA alone from CV-19.

[cheez avenger]

Got another email from AMC theaters that they will start reopening on August 20th. That's fine, but my particular theater, in a Blue state, is not governed by whether or not AMC decides to open. I'm under state and county orders and there is no set date for my particular theater to open. Also AMC will only charge 15 cents a ticket on the first day of reopening.

[Wendell R. Breland]

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