Paramount's HD DVD Decision Decried by Analysts - Blu-ray Forum

J_UNTITLED · 08-24-2007, 04:12 AM

From IMDb.com

- The decision by Paramount/DreamWorks to release high-definition discs exclusively in the HD DVD format may result in short-term benefit for the company (it will reportedly receive $150 million in promotional value and cash from the HD DVD camp), but it is likely to decrease its overall sales of high-definition discs significantly and delay the public's decision to purchase players for either HD DVD or Blu-ray, several analysts agreed Wednesday. Jim Bottoms, CEO of media research firm Understanding & Solutions, was quoted in Home Media Retail magazine as telling a research seminar in Beverly Hills Wednesday, "The weight of the industry is still very much behind Blu-ray ... We do not believe overall [that the Paramount announcement is] going to change the outcome of the battle." Its only effect, he said, is to prolong confusion over the format issue. The announcement was greeted with dismay in Terre Haute, IN, where Sony has spent $81 million to upgrade a Blu-ray manufacturing plant. Richard Doherty, research director for The Envisioneering Group in Seaford, NY, told today's (Thursday) Indianapolis Star that "the Hollywood jet-set club [is] playing chess, and consumers feel like they're pawns in the game." In an editorial, the Los Angeles Times commented on Wednesday: "Hollywood needs to let consumers and the market pick a winner, just as they did with Betamax and VHS. And consumers can't do that unless all the studios release their movies in both formats."

LINK: http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2007-08-23/

GasCat · 08-24-2007, 05:30 AM

I think we were very close to passing the point of caring. It seems like a big announcement still I think of it as only a blip.

I still think of all the pro-Blu-Ray announcements in the recent months. This corporation and others are trying to stifle the free market where consumers decide. It's a very odd thing to see in a capitalist market.

gand41f · 08-24-2007, 05:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GasCat

This corporation and others are trying to stifle the free market where consumers decide. It's a very odd thing to see in a capitalist market.

I assume you are being sarcastic, right? This corporation (M$) is all about stifling the competition with whatever means possible. They only want the market to be "free" so they can enter.

really
gandalf

phil · 08-24-2007, 05:50 AM

I don't exactly agree that it's really harmful for them. I mean it's not like they were relasing a whole lot to begin with. The movie titles are so limited now and within the next 4 months. Its under 10, right? and the deal is 18 months. How many films are going to be released by them in the next 18 months? And how many of those films are actual blockbuster hits? 18 months, isn't long term, so the term shouldn't even be used.

I'm going with I don't really care, it doesn't really bother me, Blu Ray is still Strong, and it STill Owns. Screw Paramount, their biggest hits were nearly 10 years ago if not more.

zombieking · 08-24-2007, 06:10 AM

After pondering it all the last few days, the story is right. I don't think Paramount's move will have any effect on blu-ray's momentum. It will only confuse consumers that wanted to take the hi-def step. I strongly believe with the sheer amount of great titles in OCT-DEC, blu-ray will steamroll over HD-DVD in sales. Transformers will barely cause a ripple in the waters simply because of HD's smaller install base, and the green ogre won't do much better. Even if consumers choose hd this xmas, bluray simply has too many titles to counterstrike back with.

I don't believe HD-DVD will ever even up that sales ratio. Would take a few great titles and then some to do, but right now I can't think of any that would help.

phil · 08-24-2007, 06:12 AM

Yeah 300 HD DVD sales were horrible, You can't expect Transformer's Sales to surpass 300's.

Maybe the 150 million covers that side of things.

Farscape1 · 08-24-2007, 06:16 AM

I am with you on your post.. The problem is, if and HOPEFULLY not, if WB goes HD-DVD exclusive then we are at a stalemate on studios. And this could kill holiday electronic sales and even software sales come Christmas time. I for one thing Blu is a much better format, and all the insane HD-DVDers over at AVS keep on comparing it to Beta are in need of some more brain cells. Frankly I think Microsoft is behind all of this...

The Don · 08-24-2007, 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farscape1

I am with you on your post.. The problem is, if and HOPEFULLY not, if WB goes HD-DVD exclusive then we are at a stalemate on studios. And this could kill holiday electronic sales and even software sales come Christmas time. I for one thing Blu is a much better format, and all the insane HD-DVDers over at AVS keep on comparing it to Beta are in need of some more brain cells. Frankly I think Microsoft is behind all of this...

MS is behind this...

but as long as we have Sony and Disney titles for the holiday season we'll be fine...

not to mention what Fox has announced and the rest of the studio's making their contribution...

but...POTC trilogy, Spider-man trilogy and Cars etc. etc. will blow HD DVD sales out of the water this holiday season already.....with or without Paramount support..

Proteus · 08-24-2007, 06:29 AM

I agree with GasCat... Paramount/Dreamworks is a very small blip. Blu-ray lost nothing major, that's for sure.

Per the article, you guys keep looking at this through the eyes of historical data on sales figures. You have to remember that had this not happened (and it may not matter that it did) Blu-ray would have, without any question, become the de facto format during the holiday season thus ending the war. Any marketer worth a crap could read this trend and apparently the agency mentioned in the article is worth a crap.

What am I getting at? If Blu-ray had emerged a winner, there would be an _incredible_ influx of new buyers into the format. I've mentioned before that a number like 10+ million more players over the course of 2008 would not be out of the question at all. All of these new owners would want a new media... Blu-ray media. This number could be even higher actually once you consider the PS3 which should hit 20+ million units by Xmas 2008 no problems at it's current development pace (the really big games hit in 2008). So, you have potentially over 20+ million more Blu-ray capable players in the market by the 2008 holiday season. Packaged media is one of the most popular holiday gifts.

It's not hard to see how much Paramount fubar'd the math. Historical data means next to nothing in these things aside from trend analysis. The agency in the article seems to agree with me.

Bad business.

Chris Gerhard · 08-24-2007, 06:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Proteus

I agree with GasCat... Paramount/Dreamworks is a very small blip. Blu-ray lost nothing major, that's for sure.

How I wish that was true.

Chris

scott1256ca · 08-24-2007, 06:55 AM

Quote:

Blu-ray lost nothing major, that's for sure.

They lost the perception of overwhelming studio support.

Quote:

I don't think Paramount's move will have any effect on blu-ray's momentum. It will only confuse consumers that wanted to take the hi-def step.

You just contradicted yourself. That is a big part of what this announcement is about. Some consumers who may have been ready to jump into HD by buying a BD player will now sit on the sidelines. If they are not buying media, the format grows slower, taking longer to become mainstream. The longer it takes to become mainstream, the fewer titles we will have to select from. The question is, how dramatic will this effect be?

Also, I'd expect for $150m that Paramount/Dreamworks will be expected to release titles at a faster clip than they have. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 20 before the end of the year, and announcing another 100 for next year.

zombieking · 08-24-2007, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott1256ca

They lost the perception of overwhelming studio support.

You just contradicted yourself. That is a big part of what this announcement is about. Some consumers who may have been ready to jump into HD by buying a BD player will now sit on the sidelines. If they are not buying media, the format grows slower, taking longer to become mainstream. The longer it takes to become mainstream, the fewer titles we will have to select from. The question is, how dramatic will this effect be?

Also, I'd expect for $150m that Paramount/Dreamworks will be expected to release titles at a faster clip than they have. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 20 before the end of the year, and announcing another 100 for next year.

Yeah should've been clearer by saying the current momentum should stay the same because few consumers will adopt either format, but because of blu's larger install base, the sales ratio should remain in the 2:1 area.

And remember its quality, not quantity. Universal has been pumping out lack-lustre titles judging by reviews. For Paramount to prep that many titles, I predict similar results

WriteSimply · 08-24-2007, 08:27 AM

Like I said before... In the immortal words of a crack ho, "It's not right, but it's okay."

fuad

scragham · 08-24-2007, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Proteus

I agree with GasCat... Paramount/Dreamworks is a very small blip. Blu-ray lost nothing major, that's for sure.

in terms of titles and numbers for software sold, you're probably right. if you look critically at paramount/DW's release slate, the only big day 'n dates they have upcoming are transformers and shrek 3.

the problem is the bad PR from this... BD just took a huge black eye in the public perception that they're winning this format war. no one except the most stupidly optimistic HD DVD zealots should translate this news to meaning that HD DVD now has a chance of winning (even if warner were to go HD DVD exclusive, all that means is that now the sides are evenly balanced and we're doomed to a stalemate, and combo player prices better drop fast or else HD optical is dead in the water...), but this could very well translate to decreased sales to newcomers to HD optical.

Quote:

Per the article, you guys keep looking at this through the eyes of historical data on sales figures. You have to remember that had this not happened (and it may not matter that it did) Blu-ray would have, without any question, become the de facto format during the holiday season thus ending the war. Any marketer worth a crap could read this trend and apparently the agency mentioned in the article is worth a crap.

What am I getting at? If Blu-ray had emerged a winner, there would be an _incredible_ influx of new buyers into the format. I've mentioned before that a number like 10+ million more players over the course of 2008 would not be out of the question at all. All of these new owners would want a new media... Blu-ray media. This number could be even higher actually once you consider the PS3 which should hit 20+ million units by Xmas 2008 no problems at it's current development pace (the really big games hit in 2008). So, you have potentially over 20+ million more Blu-ray capable players in the market by the 2008 holiday season. Packaged media is one of the most popular holiday gifts.

It's not hard to see how much Paramount fubar'd the math. Historical data means next to nothing in these things aside from trend analysis. The agency in the article seems to agree with me.

Bad business.

well, re: paramount, paramount's losing nothing. this decision wasn't bad for paramount, they're not actually losing anything (unless of course, HD optical turns into a niche market because of the prolonged war and HD VOD becomes the standard). seriously, look at it this way -

by going HD DVD exclusive, they have gained $150 mill in cash and incentives. using transformers as an example - despite the calls for boycotts of transformers and the like, let's be honest - they're still going to make mad money on sales on optical media. they will sell slightly more on SD DVD (from BD supporters that haven't caved buying SD), they will sell slightly more on HD DVD (from BD supporters that HAVE caved by going neutral), and if/when they go back to neutral once their 18 months are up (assuming there hasn't been some MASSIVE shift in the market supporting them staying HD DVD exclusive), they'll get more BD sales from the BD holdouts as well as the new BD owners.

for HD optical media, this is bad. really bad. this prevents widespread adoption for YET another holiday season.

phil · 08-24-2007, 03:38 PM

Yeah I really think that if you know ahead of time that your only hit is one movie, and you're able to pull in guaranteed money. It's not all that bad for them.

The real question is how many of you Blu Ray users are going to buy Transformers in Blu Ray in 18 months. If that number is high, then it would insinuate the idea that this exclusive thing for 18 months to HD DVD wasn't all that bad. So if you're really against this whole paramount thing, and want to punish them, I highly suggest not buying the film when it comes out in 18 months, but that's not going to happen, lol. Same with Universal, it kinda sucks how all of these studios go exclusive and as soon as they go Blu Ray, if they go blu ray, they'll sell in high commodities.

GasCat · 08-24-2007, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phil

Yeah I really think that if you know ahead of time that your only hit is one movie, and you're able to pull in guaranteed money. It's not all that bad for them.

It will be interesting to see if Bay can delay the release of it. Some directors have total control over the final product and decide when it goes.

This could have a different effect. Make a large segment of the HD population turn to VOD for their movies. It's a fairly insidious force feeding.
Choose how you as a Blu-Ray owner will watch the movie:
$300 HD-DVD player
$8 VOD

Spankey · 08-24-2007, 07:17 PM

Quote:

I have also heard on the grapevine at work that the guy who left WB quit in protest at a change in policy at the studio. I think an announcement is on the cards at WB, but it might not go the way everybody is thinking.

I still think this is going to be HD-DVD exclusivity. The bribe may have been taken. If I were in charge of the the home media division and I was pulling in the profits that Warner has been, I would quit too.

There are discussions going on between the studios and those with the bags of money. I don't expect a quick announcement as new deals may be under consideration.

Maximus · 08-24-2007, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTK

Huh, now I am starting to get real interested in where you work and what you do...

Sorry. No cookie.

Terjyn · 08-24-2007, 07:32 PM

Equal studio support will not make HD-DVD be competitive, much less win.

They need the draw that will make people buy HD-DVD players that have no other function over the PS3, which can be used for several other things.

Equal studio support is not that draw.

They need to woo either Fox or Disney away from Blu-Ray if they truly want to have a chance.

Or, as I've said elsewhere, they need to Woo a studio or two to abandon DVD altogether, and have it not piss the masses off. That's an incredibly fine line to draw, a line I'd claim is not walkable.

HD-DVD is hosed without a massive change.

spam.curitiba · 08-24-2007, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Equal studio support will not make HD-DVD be competitive, much less win.

They need the draw that will make people buy HD-DVD players that have no other function over the PS3, which can be used for several other things.

Equal studio support is not that draw.

They need to woo either Fox or Disney away from Blu-Ray if they truly want to have a chance.

Or, as I've said elsewhere, they need to Woo a studio or two to abandon DVD altogether, and have it not piss the masses off. That's an incredibly fine line to draw, a line I'd claim is not walkable.

HD-DVD is hosed without a massive change.

qft

08-24-2007, 04:12 AM	#1
J_UNTITLED Power Member Member since:Jul 2006	Paramount's HD DVD Decision Decried by Analysts From IMDb.com - The decision by Paramount/DreamWorks to release high-definition discs exclusively in the HD DVD format may result in short-term benefit for the company (it will reportedly receive $150 million in promotional value and cash from the HD DVD camp), but it is likely to decrease its overall sales of high-definition discs significantly and delay the public's decision to purchase players for either HD DVD or Blu-ray, several analysts agreed Wednesday. Jim Bottoms, CEO of media research firm Understanding & Solutions, was quoted in Home Media Retail magazine as telling a research seminar in Beverly Hills Wednesday, "The weight of the industry is still very much behind Blu-ray ... We do not believe overall [that the Paramount announcement is] going to change the outcome of the battle." Its only effect, he said, is to prolong confusion over the format issue. The announcement was greeted with dismay in Terre Haute, IN, where Sony has spent $81 million to upgrade a Blu-ray manufacturing plant. Richard Doherty, research director for The Envisioneering Group in Seaford, NY, told today's (Thursday) Indianapolis Star that "the Hollywood jet-set club [is] playing chess, and consumers feel like they're pawns in the game." In an editorial, the Los Angeles Times commented on Wednesday: "Hollywood needs to let consumers and the market pick a winner, just as they did with Betamax and VHS. And consumers can't do that unless all the studios release their movies in both formats." LINK: http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2007-08-23/

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08-24-2007, 05:30 AM	#2
GasCat Special Member Member since:Jan 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	I think we were very close to passing the point of caring. It seems like a big announcement still I think of it as only a blip. I still think of all the pro-Blu-Ray announcements in the recent months. This corporation and others are trying to stifle the free market where consumers decide. It's a very odd thing to see in a capitalist market.

08-24-2007, 05:50 AM	#4
phil Banned Member since:Aug 2007	I don't exactly agree that it's really harmful for them. I mean it's not like they were relasing a whole lot to begin with. The movie titles are so limited now and within the next 4 months. Its under 10, right? and the deal is 18 months. How many films are going to be released by them in the next 18 months? And how many of those films are actual blockbuster hits? 18 months, isn't long term, so the term shouldn't even be used. I'm going with I don't really care, it doesn't really bother me, Blu Ray is still Strong, and it STill Owns. Screw Paramount, their biggest hits were nearly 10 years ago if not more.

08-24-2007, 06:10 AM	#5
zombieking Special Member Member since:May 2007 Location:CANADA Blu-ray collection:304 Blu-ray reviews: 18	After pondering it all the last few days, the story is right. I don't think Paramount's move will have any effect on blu-ray's momentum. It will only confuse consumers that wanted to take the hi-def step. I strongly believe with the sheer amount of great titles in OCT-DEC, blu-ray will steamroll over HD-DVD in sales. Transformers will barely cause a ripple in the waters simply because of HD's smaller install base, and the green ogre won't do much better. Even if consumers choose hd this xmas, bluray simply has too many titles to counterstrike back with. I don't believe HD-DVD will ever even up that sales ratio. Would take a few great titles and then some to do, but right now I can't think of any that would help.

08-24-2007, 06:12 AM	#6
phil Banned Member since:Aug 2007	Yeah 300 HD DVD sales were horrible, You can't expect Transformer's Sales to surpass 300's. Maybe the 150 million covers that side of things.

08-24-2007, 06:16 AM	#7
Farscape1 Member Member since:Aug 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	I am with you on your post.. The problem is, if and HOPEFULLY not, if WB goes HD-DVD exclusive then we are at a stalemate on studios. And this could kill holiday electronic sales and even software sales come Christmas time. I for one thing Blu is a much better format, and all the insane HD-DVDers over at AVS keep on comparing it to Beta are in need of some more brain cells. Frankly I think Microsoft is behind all of this...

08-24-2007, 06:29 AM	#9
Proteus Power Member Member since:Apr 2007 Location:SoCal PSN:CaptBurn	I agree with GasCat... Paramount/Dreamworks is a very small blip. Blu-ray lost nothing major, that's for sure. Per the article, you guys keep looking at this through the eyes of historical data on sales figures. You have to remember that had this not happened (and it may not matter that it did) Blu-ray would have, without any question, become the de facto format during the holiday season thus ending the war. Any marketer worth a crap could read this trend and apparently the agency mentioned in the article is worth a crap. What am I getting at? If Blu-ray had emerged a winner, there would be an _incredible_ influx of new buyers into the format. I've mentioned before that a number like 10+ million more players over the course of 2008 would not be out of the question at all. All of these new owners would want a new media... Blu-ray media. This number could be even higher actually once you consider the PS3 which should hit 20+ million units by Xmas 2008 no problems at it's current development pace (the really big games hit in 2008). So, you have potentially over 20+ million more Blu-ray capable players in the market by the 2008 holiday season. Packaged media is one of the most popular holiday gifts. It's not hard to see how much Paramount fubar'd the math. Historical data means next to nothing in these things aside from trend analysis. The agency in the article seems to agree with me. Bad business.

08-24-2007, 08:27 AM	#13
WriteSimply Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Sep 2006 Location:Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia	Like I said before... In the immortal words of a crack ho, "It's not right, but it's okay." fuad

08-24-2007, 03:38 PM	#15
phil Banned Member since:Aug 2007	Yeah I really think that if you know ahead of time that your only hit is one movie, and you're able to pull in guaranteed money. It's not all that bad for them. The real question is how many of you Blu Ray users are going to buy Transformers in Blu Ray in 18 months. If that number is high, then it would insinuate the idea that this exclusive thing for 18 months to HD DVD wasn't all that bad. So if you're really against this whole paramount thing, and want to punish them, I highly suggest not buying the film when it comes out in 18 months, but that's not going to happen, lol. Same with Universal, it kinda sucks how all of these studios go exclusive and as soon as they go Blu Ray, if they go blu ray, they'll sell in high commodities.

08-24-2007, 07:32 PM	#19
Terjyn Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jul 2007 Blu-ray collection:122	Equal studio support will not make HD-DVD be competitive, much less win. They need the draw that will make people buy HD-DVD players that have no other function over the PS3, which can be used for several other things. Equal studio support is not that draw. They need to woo either Fox or Disney away from Blu-Ray if they truly want to have a chance. Or, as I've said elsewhere, they need to Woo a studio or two to abandon DVD altogether, and have it not piss the masses off. That's an incredibly fine line to draw, a line I'd claim is not walkable. HD-DVD is hosed without a massive change.

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