Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Did you notice that Q2 had a 57.25% increase for EST while Q1 only had a 12.62% increase for EST? That's obviously related to the pandemic.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

UHD-BD was released almost 5 years ago: February 2016. It is a niche within a niche. That's what was expected of it.

I understand the new game consoles don't support either Dolby Vision or Dolby Atmos for UHD-BD. I don't see that as a big selling feature do you? This isn't the PS3. The UHD-BD market is well established with players costing 60% less than a game console that do support DV and DA. I don't see an major uptick in UHD-BD sales due to game console sales.


Ah - you have mistaken me for someone else . . . again. I don't preach that disc is dead. I say disc is dying. Not the same. Cinemas are CTD: Circling The Drain. Will they disappear? Of course not. There will just be less of them under new management.

You understand incorrectly. That’s for games not Blu-ray/UHD playback. Sony have their own surround system for games.

Nothing has been confirmed for disc playback but it’s very much expected.

Also, Xbox have already confirmed Atmos and DV.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

It's sales are decreasing at a rate of 18% per year and have been for quite some time. I would call that type of market shrinkage: Dying

But I can understand why none of you will say that. Not with 'Discs For Life" slogans on your posts.

You didn't answer my question: do you think that disc will be dead soon?

Personally I think it's a declining market. At some point it will level off and continue to stay profitable for many decades.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

You understand incorrectly. That’s for games not Blu-ray/UHD playback. Sony have their own surround system for games.

Nothing has been confirmed for disc playback but it’s very much expected.

Also, Xbox have already confirmed Atmos and DV.

Neither system supports Dolby Vision for Ultra HD Blu-ray. Xbox supports Dolby Vision for games.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Facts in a pandemic may not be fs ta come 2021-2022.

More speculation right.

What if the pandemic lasts all throughout 2021?

You can't possibly believe that it will have no lasting negative effect and that once it's over it will be "business as usual." I know you are not a naïve person Steedeel.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

You understand incorrectly. That’s for games not Blu-ray/UHD playback. Sony have their own surround system for games.

Nothing has been confirmed for disc playback but it’s very much expected.

Also, Xbox have already confirmed Atmos and DV.

So this is not correct? It's where I got my info.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

More speculation right.

What if the pandemic lasts all throughout 2021?

You can't possibly believe that it will have no lasting negative effect and that once it's over it will be "business as usual." I know you are not a naïve person Steedeel.

It's hard to say. Plenty of people will be anxious to get back to "business as usual".

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

It's hard to say. Plenty of people will be anxious to get back to "business as usual".

But not all

Life has changed for all of us.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Life has changed for all of us.

Not all. My life barely changed during the pandemic, let alone after it. All of my work and hobbies are easily done at home and I live with all of my favorite people.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Not all. My life barely changed during the pandemic, let alone after it. All of my work and hobbies are easily done at home and I live with all of my favorite people.

Had all the toilet paper you could ever want right from the start? Had no restriction placed on you as to how many packages of sliced chicken breasts or sliced pork tenderloins you could buy at one time?

BTW - still waiting for the answer to that question you have dodged.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Had all the toilet paper you could ever want right from the start? Had no restriction placed on you as to how many packages of sliced chicken breasts or sliced pork tenderloins you could buy at one time?

I always have plenty of toilet paper so the short lived shortage had no effect on me. All of the food quantity restrictions were perfectly reasonable so they didn't bother me at all.

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

BTW - still waiting for the answer to that question you have dodged.

I thought I answered everything. What was the question?

I'm still waiting for an answer to my question: Do you think that physical media will be dead soon?

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

I thought I answered everything. What was the question?

How many catalog titles has Disney released on UHD-BD in the last 6 months: May 1st to October 28th 2020

I'm still waiting for an answer to my question: Do you think that physical media will be dead soon?

According to the Dictionary's definition of "SOON" which is:

within a short period after this or that time, event, etc.

before long; in the near future; at an early date.

No. I do not think PM will be dead soon.

I think it will continue to die for as long as the three formats exist.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

How many catalog titles has Disney released on UHD-BD in the last 6 months: May 1st to October 28th 2020

Two: Home Alone & Hocus Pocus. But they released more catalog titles than any other studio in 2019 and early 2020 (including every Pixar, Marvel Cinematic Universe, and Star Wars movie). I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of their most popular titles have already been released.

No. I do not think PM will be dead soon.

I think it will continue to die for as long as the three formats exist.

So physical media is dying in the same sense that all of us are dying: it will eventually be dead. Video discs have existed for around 40 years and I think they could easily survive for at least another 40 years. Plenty of far smaller niche markets have lasted for much longer.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Two: Home Alone & Hocus Pocus. But they released more catalog titles than any other studio in 2019 and early 2020 (including every Pixar, Marvel Cinematic Universe, and Star Wars movie). I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of their most popular titles have already been released.

What about all those Fox movies they acquired?

So physical media is dying in the same sense that all of us are dying: it will eventually be dead. Video discs have existed for around 40 years and I think they could easily survive for at least another 40 years. Plenty of far smaller niche markets have lasted for much longer.

LOL - an Optimist!

PM will be lucky to survive for the next 12 years at best. That's my prediction. May accelerate faster - depends on how quickly 8K takes hold.

[Lee A Stewart]

Well guys - it's been a slice!

Hey Steedeel . . . You got enough new stuff to throw back at me or do you need some more. Let me know will you.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

What about all those Fox movies they acquired?

Disney, more than any other studio, is extremely focused on big hits. Fox has already released the majority of their big hits on UHD Blu-ray. Additionally Disney is more focused on family friendly titles than any other studio so I don't expect they'll be in a big rush to release the rest of the Die Hard or Alien movies (the two biggest Fox series that haven't been released in their entirety on UHD Blu-ray).

LOL - an Optimist!

PM will be lucky to survive for the next 12 years at best. That's my prediction. May accelerate faster - depends on how quickly 8K takes hold.

Survive in what sense? You think that no one will be releasing anything on physical media in 12 years?

Despite declining sales more titles are released on physical media each year than the previous year. There is absolutely no sign that the studios are abandoning physical media.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Till someone produces a list of titles on PM that would continue sales in big numbers I see no reason to engage in the back and forth. Once the masses has purchased the titles of interest then sales will start to slide.

The same is true of SVOD, even Netflix knows this. They know the markets they have saturated that new sub growth will slow, then stop and maybe even decline. IIRC, this happened in Sweden last quarter where Netflix had a net loss of subs.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Till someone produces a list of titles on PM that would continue sales in big numbers I see no reason to engage in the back and forth. Once the masses has purchased the titles of interest then sales will start to slide.

The same is true of SVOD, even Netflix knows this. They know the markets they have saturated that new sub growth will slow, then stop and maybe even decline. IIRC, this happened in Sweden last quarter where Netflix had a net loss of subs.

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on Netflix having negative growth for a single quarter in Sweden. Netflix is in 190 countries. Sweden has a total population the same as the state of Michigan: 10 million. Nor are Swedes known for being couch potatoes. TV/Home Video takes up a very small portion of their leisure time.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Currently the studios are making 40% more profit from an EST sale then they do from a disc sale. EST is outselling Physical Media.

Does anyone really believe the studios will kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

I am still trying to catch up on three pages of posts today, but do you actually have a source that proves that the studios make 40% more in profit on an EST sale vs. a disc sale? I have not seen anything that substantiates that claim as of yet.

Further, maintaining and operating all of those server farms to allow access to EST content constitute an ongoing cost that is often overlooked. Unlike a disc sale, an EST sale requires continual and costly support in the form of bandwidth costs and server farm costs and these are quite large.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Well guys - it's been a slice!

Hey Steedeel . . . You got enough new stuff to throw back at me or do you need some more. Let me know will you.

I did have to go to work!

Nothing for now, just to say I was incorrect about the Dolby Vision thing so hands up. Although I do think Sony will add a software update to rectify that at some point.

Please note though, official confirmation is still to come. We will know next week.