81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

almost back up to the 2:1 ratio. This is probably due to Heroes tailing off a bit?

I think a lot of it has to do with how low the volumes were for last week with Heroes and Blades of Glory. Together they probably equalled 10k units. That's why this whole HD DVD mantra that they are gaining ground is such hogwash. Volume was low for both BD and HD but HD actually had two big releases and their volume was still lower than BD with zero releases.

I bookmarked this post by rdjam just to throw it back in his face this fall.

but the trend is very clear - HD DVD is catching up to Bluray in software sales. Where is that 3 to 1 sales ratio now? Answer, you;ll *never* see it again...

[atomik kinder]

Did anyone else notice how far HEROS on HD DVD plummeted just this week? I know Amazon sales don't directly reflect what is going on in the real retail world, but when something like that happens it usually isn't a good sign. Also Transformers HD DVD is up and it at number 4 currently on Amazon. I bet the HD DVD boys are having a party over that. But anyway. I counted at least 10 or 11 BDs that are coming out early October that I plan on purchasing the week that Tranformers comes out. (This will be the most movies of any format I have purchased at one time!) There are a few more that I could add too, but I don't want to bust the piggy bank wide open.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by Proteus

I re-iterate what I said before... This is _huge_ news for Blu-ray.

You won't see a lot of Blu-ray advertising in media right now for one simple reason: There's nothing to sell.

The smart marketer, at this point, would hold their cards until after Halloween (and let the cards fall on Transformers to see the real numbers to aid in their plan). Market when consumers are a) ready to buy (holidays) and b) you have products flooding the marketplace (15 new players at least).

Each Blu-ray manufacturer will undoubtedly run their own ad campaigns for their units and buy their own end caps and promotional spots based on their own budgets. Having 15+ manufacturers with 15+ marketing budgets is far greater than one manufacturer with a marketing budget (too bad only Toshiba has a budget in the HDDVD camp).

You'll see some Blu-ray tie-ins on movie releases advertised in the short term, but the real money will get spent closer to holiday season. HDDVD will get slaughtered by the buying power of all the major CE manufacturers and studios Blu-ray has.

...only Toshiba has a budget in the HDDVD camp..

And they are stupidly pissing it away largely on "bribes" and, to a lesser extent, subsidizing artificially low prices for their players. The Blu-ray Army will vastly outspend the competing format in effective advertisements and promotions.

[richard lichtenfelt]

Originally Posted by navychop

Yes. And their profit margin may be larger on HD DVD discs due to production costs. But there is another thing they must keep in mind, if they can think that far ahead: After 18 months or so, and if they want to produce Blu-ray discs again- how quickly will they be able to? Blu-ray replicators may have full order books. Who are they likely to give preference to- customers that stuck with them, or someone who cut and ran, and now wants back in? Of course, at the other extreme, maybe there will be plenty of replication capacity, and they can pump out all their titles quickly. I suspect the case will be more like the former scenario.




Actually, it wasn't low volume. It was high enough to move the YTD figure by a percentage point. Let's not kid ourselves. This will be a prolonged war, and could end with both surviving- or both remaining niche products.

If HD DVDs are so easy to produce, why haven't the HD DVD exclusive studios been pumping out huge numbers of titles? Could we have a surprise awaiting us as the holidays approach? Could the HD DVD camp release more titles in Q4 than have already been announced?

The whole replication stuff is fodder directly attributed to Amir who is employed by Microsoft. I've researched it and the difference in costs is around a nickel per disc between 15gb hd-dvds and 25gb blu-rays. If the movie studios were worried about it they could charge the extra 5 cents and no one would ever complain. Go to Amazon and see that the 5 disc Blade Runner on blu-ray costs the same as the 1 disc version of 300 on hd-dvd. Yea it really seems like the cost of the discs is breaking the movie studios, come on. Notice you hear all this replication bs on AVS but they never mention actual cost differences.
These are the same people that tell you attach rates are so much greater because people with PS3s aren't buying a lot of blu-rays, then they turn around and tell you that they have more hd-dvd players out there than blu-rays because PS3s don't count since they're not selling many movies. Hd-dvd has no advantages so they make up skewed facts and statistics to try and keep their base feeling positive.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Did anyone else notice how far HEROS on HD DVD plummeted just this week? I know Amazon sales don't directly reflect what is going on in the real retail world, but when something like that happens it usually isn't a good sign.

Yes. In only its second week, it's already behind Planet Earth on HD DVD which is priced about the same. Pathetic....

enjoy
gandalf

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Yes. In only its second week, it's already behind Planet Earth on HD DVD which is priced about the same. Pathetic....

enjoy
gandalf

I wouldn't look for it to be very high on the chart next week. Anyone think 300 will still be on top?

[Blu Titan]

Heros will plummet, and BOG will also see an early demise. No challenge for 300 BD! Not until Sept 18th.

[Anthony P]

navychop, you missed the Sony HES-V1000

[JAG1977]

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

Inception to date, the software lead is about 50%, with the breakdown 61% - 39%. Blu-ray had a huge hardware lead almost immediately after PS3 launch and just lost software support, how does that equate to increasing the lead? The cheap HD DVD players are going to sell, not much, but enough to mean some new consumers will buy software. I can't come up with anything other than the lead shrinks from the YTD 2-1 advantage and settles at or about the ITD number until we get another big announcement. There may be no more really big announcements until the Paramount deal ends.

Chris

I'm not sure were your coming from.

Blu-ray has had to do without FOX, certain Warner titles, a slack Disney slate, and high player prices.

Other than Paramount all the factors are moving in Blu-ray's direction, plus PS3 is beginning to get in it's stride.

3-1 should be the norm in Q4 and beyond.

[navychop]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

navychop, you missed the Sony HES-V1000

Yes. I decided to leave the "monsters" out of it!

[Chris Gerhard]

Originally Posted by JAG1977

I'm not sure were your coming from.

Blu-ray has had to do without FOX, certain Warner titles, a slack Disney slate, and high player prices.

Other than Paramount all the factors are moving in Blu-ray's direction, plus PS3 is beginning to get in it's stride.

3-1 should be the norm in Q4 and beyond.

Fox has 30 or so titles available on Blu-ray as does Paramount and we have a breakdown ITD of 61% - 39%. Now Blu-ray no longer has Paramount, I don't know how you can come up with Blu-ray increasing the lead to 3-1 in future periods. Absolute nonsense prediction and is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Chris

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

I don't know how you can come up with Blu-ray increasing the lead to 3-1 in future periods. Absolute nonsense prediction and is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Chris

It's pretty easy when you look at what is actually being released in the upcoming months. Paramounts decision only affects 3 titles, Blades of Glory, Transformers, and Shrek 3. BoG did nothing. Transformers is coming up quick, and Shrek has no date yet. Fox is doubling the number of titles they have released by the end of the year.

Just look at the exclusive list announced so far:

Exclusive US Domestic Blu-ray titles for the remainder of 2007 (as of 9/8/07):

September 11, 2007
The Replacement Killers (Sony)

September 18, 2007
The Condemned (Lionsgate)
David Gilmour: Remember That Night (Sony BMG)
A Few Good Men (Sony)
House of 1000 Corpses (Lionsgate)

September 25, 2007
Black Book (Sony)
Memoirs of a Geisha (Sony)
Tekkonkinkreet (Sony)
Underworld (Sony)

October 02, 2007
Bram Stoker's Dracula (Sony)
Dawn of the Dead (1978) (Starz)
The Day After Tomorrow (Fox)
Day of the Dead (1985) (Starz)
Evil Dead 2: Dead by Dawn (Starz)
Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox)
Halloween (1978) (Starz)
Master & Commander (Fox)

October 09, 2007
28 Days Later (Fox)
28 Weeks Later (Fox)
The Amityville Horror (1979) (MGM)
Edward Scissorhands (Fox)
The Fly (1986) (Fox)
From Hell (Fox)
Reign Over Me (Sony)
RoboCop (MGM)
Surf's Up (Sony)

October 16, 2007
Hollow Man (Director's Cut) (Sony)
The Invisible (Buena Vista)
Masters of Horror: Season One - Volume One (Starz)
Masters of Horror: Season One - Volume Two (Starz)

October 23, 2007
The Company (2007) (Sony)
The Hills Have Eyes 2 (2007) (Fox)
Home of the Brave (Fox)
Hostel (Director's Cut) (Sony)
Hostel: Part II (Sony)
King of New York (Lionsgate)
Meet the Robinsons (Walt Disney)
Mr. Brooks (MGM)
Scary Movie (Dimension)

October 30, 2007
Spider-Man 3 (Sony)
Spider-Man: The High-Definition Trilogy (Sony)

November 06, 2007
Battle of Britain (MGM)
Beowulf & Grendel (Starz)
A Bridge Too Far (MGM)
Cars (Buena Vista)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)
Oldboy (Tartan)
The Pixar Short Films Collection: Volume 1 (Walt Disney)
Ratatouille (Walt Disney)
Red Dawn (MGM)

November 13, 2007
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (Sony)
Dragon Ball Z: Broly - The Legendary Super Saiyan/Broly - Second Coming (Double Feature) (FUNimation)
I, Robot (Fox)
IMAX: Africa the Serengeti (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Alaska Spirit of the Wild (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Antarctica -- An Adventure of a Different Nature (Razor Digital)
IMAX: Australia Land Beyond Time (Razor Digital)
Masters of Horror: Season One - Volume Three (Starz)
Prison Break: Season One (Fox)

November 20, 2007
Badder Santa: The Unrated Version (Buena Vista)
The Die Hard Trilogy (Fox)
Live Free or Die Hard (Fox)
Pathfinder (Fox)
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause (Buena Vista)

December 04, 2007
20 Million Miles to Earth (Sony)
Cast Away (Fox)
Independence Day (Fox)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Fox)
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista)
Ronin (MGM)

December 11, 2007
High School Musical 2 (Walt Disney)
Lost: The Complete Third Season - The Unexplored Experience (Disney)
Masters of Horror: Season One - Volume Four (Starz)

Exclusive US Domestic HD DVD titles for the remainder of 2007 (as of 9/8/07):

September 18, 2007
Elizabeth (Universal)
For Love of the Game (Universal)
The Last Starfighter (Universal)
Saturday Night Fever (Paramount)

September 25, 2007
Evening (Universal)
Freedom: 2 (Bandai Visual)
The Getaway (1994) (Universal)
Knocked Up (Universal)
Next (Paramount)
Patch Adams (Universal)

October 02, 2007
Dreaming Nevada (The Picture)
Top Gun (Paramount)

October 09, 2007
Evan Almighty (Universal)

October 16, 2007
A Mighty Heart (Paramount)
Transformers (DreamWorks)

October 23, 2007
Carlito's Way (Universal)
Carlito's Way: Rise to Power (Universal)
Inside Man (Universal)
The Jack Ryan Collection (Paramount)
Seed of Chucky (Universal Entetainment)

October 30, 2007
Face/Off (Paramount)
Talk to Me (Universal)

November 13, 2007
Pride & Prejudice (2005) (Universal)

November 20, 2007
Star Trek: The Original Series -- The Complete First Season (Paramount)
Tremors (Universal)

November 27, 2007
Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (DreamWorks)
Old School (Paramount)

December 04, 2007
Battlestar Galactica: Season One (Universal)

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

It's pretty easy when you look at what is actually being released in the upcoming months.

Plus the inevitable holiday push of PS3.

Originally Posted by LynxFX

Transformers is coming up quick, and Shrek has no date yet.

Shrek 3 is announced for November 13. Which I find rather odd, I think it will be destroyed by Ratatouille, Cars and Pixar Shorts residual sale from the previous week.

enjoy
gandalf

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Shrek 3 is announced for November 13. Which I find rather odd, I think it will be destroyed by Ratatouille, Cars and Pixar Shorts residual sale from the previous week.

enjoy
gandalf

I think destroyed might be an overstatement, but those will definitely mitigate the impact.

[Jamh]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Shrek 3 is announced for November 13. Which I find rather odd, I think it will be destroyed by Ratatouille, Cars and Pixar Shorts residual sale from the previous week.

enjoy
gandalf

I find it odd as well, Shrek 3 was released to theaters before Transformers yet it comes out almost a month later? Sounds like the HD-DVD group is blowing their big gun to try to beat out Spidey.

[Jim L]

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

Fox has 30 or so titles available on Blu-ray as does Paramount and we have a breakdown ITD of 61% - 39%. Now Blu-ray no longer has Paramount, I don't know how you can come up with Blu-ray increasing the lead to 3-1 in future periods. Absolute nonsense prediction and is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Chris

As LynxFX so ably stated in their post, it's not just the weight of the great titles for Blu, but also the weight of NEW high-grossing titles. If you looked at the top 20 films of this year, you would see the list dominated by Fox, Disney, Sony, and Warner. Oh yes, there would be a few titles for Paramount/DW and Uni, but the majority of them would be from Blu studios and many of them exclusively Blu.

[Blu Titan]

Very nice list for us. I am ready to buy!

[Rob71]

I think a lot of people are overlooking Anchor Bay/Starz. They aren't bringing out any major day/date releases, but of all the movie genres, horror lovers are the most fanatical. I look at my library and theres easily 30-40 Anchor Bays in there, and I'll re-buy every on if they're released. I've got three copies of Dawn Of The Dead, three of TCM, two of Phantasm, and well you get the idea.

[kowhite]

I can tell you I'm not overlooking Anchor Bay...I am cringing at all the double dips I'm about to engage in though, but I can't help myself.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by kowhite

I think destroyed might be an overstatement, but those will definitely mitigate the impact.

Well, we'll see. Given the general 2:1 advantage of common titles for Blu, and the fact that in the second week sales figures drops about 40% for Blu, I think there is an excellent chance that Ratatouille residual sale alone will exceed Shrek 3's opening week. Then you have Cars and Pixar Shorts.

enjoy
gandalf