Bill Hunt's latest on the format war (September 12)

[dialog_gvf]

I've been saying the same thing for years.

Hopefully "methinks thou doeth protest too much" comes to the minds of the general consumer.

Wow, 1 in 3 combos fail for the gang at The Digital Bits?! That's insane. Wait until the Venturer buyers get a taste of that.

Where are the "press" stories about the terrible problems with HD DVD discs?!

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

Now we’re hearing that triple-layer HD-DVD discs will solve all the format’s disc space concerns, when we can’t get roughly 1 in every 3 DVD/HD-DVD Combo discs to work in our Toshiba HD-A2s.

Gary

[WickyWoo]

Where are the "press" stories about the terrible problems with HD DVD discs?!

I agree. The BDA's standing policy is that "homey don't play the negative game"

There are other well-known public organizations that have trouble doing it to. The difference is that none of these studios have ever HAD to play that game before

Learn from the lessons of the past. Amir and company are out there Karl Roving them right now. You must always be willing to go lower than your opponent. There comes a time that no matter how right you are, that you stop saying "please stop being a jerk" while they take a jackhammer to your balls, and send a nuke where the sun don't shine.

BDA has the tech and software end, they're losing the perception battle bigtime.

[WickyWoo]

Word was that Universal was checking out BD authoring earlier in the year, but then decided to stay exclusive to HD DVD. Are you saying they are back at it (i.e. poking around again)? This would be an interesting new development of an old story.

I don't think they ever stopped. I just think they got a new check to make sure their exclusivity went through Christmas when it became obvious the "100 titles" clause was going to be satisfied in time for them to jump. Uni's crazy blitz of releases says 1 thing to me- They were planning to go Blu and were fufilling the contract so they could get out.

Wasn't early word that the Paramount/Dreamworks "promotional considerations" deal for HD DVD was a pre-emptive "strike" because the bottom was falling out of HD DVD behind the scenes?

Oh it definatley was. If Uni's looking to jump (which visits to authoring houses indicates), then that should tell you all you need to know

Anyone notice that New Line has delayed HD DVD releases until 2008?

Is regional coding the reason, or the excuse pending Warner's end of year decision? It wouldn't look good to start releasing only to have your sister company dump support a few months later.

There's no reason to believe what they said wasn't true. I'm sure the disc is done anyway

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Where are the "press" stories about the terrible problems with HD DVD discs?!Gary

Same place the 360 failures were for over a year .. being suppressed/ignored in the hope people won't find out until their invested and then are stuck.

[E-Dogg]

Great article. Let's make this a Blu holiday season.

[Blu As Hell]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Warner seems to be giving HD-DVD one last chance to redeem itself in the final quarter of this year. Provided the HDM market continues to grow at a respectable rate ("respectable" with all things considered given the format war), the BD/HD-DVD sales gap might finally reach that proverbial "tipping point" where Warner drops HD-DVD. I wonder what it would take. 70:30 BD sales advantage on Warner's own titles from Thanksgiving to New Years?

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Blu As Hell

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

I agree.

[Maximus]

Right, back home!

Let's disect Bill's post, he makes some excellent points, basically what we all already know. Content will win this war, not player price. If this was the case then Blu-ray would already have lost considering the PS3 has been $599 for the majority of its life.

Now onto TDB's support of Blu-ray. Well the reasons that Bill outlined are pretty good, right. Enough to convince everyone on this forum. How about in the industry, you ask. Basically the whole of Hollywood, minus a small clique, is in favour of Blu-ray becoming the future optical disc standard. The problem at the moment is that the small clique are in powerful positions, sure Nickerson got booted from WB, I am pretty sure that Kornblau and Graffeo won't be sticking around for very long. Even parts of Toshiba Japan are in favour of giving up, they have recently cut off central funding to Tosh US for the war effort.

So, what can we do about all of this, not very much. Just continue buying Blu-rays at the same rate as normal and if you can send out letters (written by hand, not emails) to Ron Sanders of WB, he is a really great guy and I am sure some of you will get replys.

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Even parts of Toshiba Japan are in favour of giving up, they have recently cut off central funding to Tosh US for the war effort.

That part was very interesting... Can they continue to support HD DVD without the Japanese money?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by HDJK

That part was very interesting... Can they continue to support HD DVD without the Japanese money?

Of course Tosh US still have lots of money, all this means is that they can't go begging to Japan for any when/if they run out.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Blu As Hell

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

If things are as we say and it does come down to Warner, the criteria for the "war" ending have shifted subtly. WB have a perspective different from the retailer or general consumer. Their own self-interest as a content provider would suggest that they look in the first instance to the sales of their own titles: they would want to see which format is the better fit with their own portfolio of content. From this they might try to extrapolate sales of upcoming home video releases and maybe even properties in development. Next (presumably) they would look at BD vs HD-DVD disc sales more generally, and hardware sales after that. Retailer support they would have to factor in somewhere in the list of priorities. Then there are the "sweeteners".

The considerations which would incline Warner to drop HD-DVD, in their peculiar priority order for that studio, suddenly take on an unnatural significance if they plan to pick a side early next year.

[almy]

In a short while, Warners will be releasing 5 Kubrick films, individually and as a set, and they will be in both formats. If BluRay trounces HD in sales, the way it did with "300" and "The Departed" Warner's choice should be a lot easier.

[navychop]

Esox50:

Why do you not think WB will just stay neutral? For the next year, anyway?

[marzetta7]

As always, great commentary and level-minded thinking by Bill.

Bravo.