Bill Hunt's latest on the format war (September 12)

[marzetta7]

As always, great commentary and level-minded thinking by Bill.

Bravo.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Blu As Hell

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

If things are as we say and it does come down to Warner, the criteria for the "war" ending have shifted subtly. WB have a perspective different from the retailer or general consumer. Their own self-interest as a content provider would suggest that they look in the first instance to the sales of their own titles: they would want to see which format is the better fit with their own portfolio of content. From this they might try to extrapolate sales of upcoming home video releases and maybe even properties in development. Next (presumably) they would look at BD vs HD-DVD disc sales more generally, and hardware sales after that. Retailer support they would have to factor in somewhere in the list of priorities. Then there are the "sweeteners".

The considerations which would incline Warner to drop HD-DVD, in their peculiar priority order for that studio, suddenly take on an unnatural significance if they plan to pick a side early next year.

[Maximus]

Right, back home!

Let's disect Bill's post, he makes some excellent points, basically what we all already know. Content will win this war, not player price. If this was the case then Blu-ray would already have lost considering the PS3 has been $599 for the majority of its life.

Now onto TDB's support of Blu-ray. Well the reasons that Bill outlined are pretty good, right. Enough to convince everyone on this forum. How about in the industry, you ask. Basically the whole of Hollywood, minus a small clique, is in favour of Blu-ray becoming the future optical disc standard. The problem at the moment is that the small clique are in powerful positions, sure Nickerson got booted from WB, I am pretty sure that Kornblau and Graffeo won't be sticking around for very long. Even parts of Toshiba Japan are in favour of giving up, they have recently cut off central funding to Tosh US for the war effort.

So, what can we do about all of this, not very much. Just continue buying Blu-rays at the same rate as normal and if you can send out letters (written by hand, not emails) to Ron Sanders of WB, he is a really great guy and I am sure some of you will get replys.

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Even parts of Toshiba Japan are in favour of giving up, they have recently cut off central funding to Tosh US for the war effort.

That part was very interesting... Can they continue to support HD DVD without the Japanese money?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by HDJK

That part was very interesting... Can they continue to support HD DVD without the Japanese money?

Of course Tosh US still have lots of money, all this means is that they can't go begging to Japan for any when/if they run out.

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Of course Tosh US still have lots of money, all this means is that they can't go begging to Japan for any when/if they run out.

Well then, let's hope they run out soon

[BigB88]

I agree with most of what Bill says, however I do not agree that both formats are "great formats". I think as I have from the beginning that HD-DVD is one slight step above DVD, whereas Blu-Ray is practically a revolution of sorts, its potential and technological implementation are simply far superior. Bill seems to think that Studio support and CE support are the ONLY important factors, but I would add a third critical piece and that is future expansion and viability, Blu-Ray has this and HD-DVD simply doesn't. This war, IMHO, will be over by March 2008 or sooner in favor of Blu Ray as long as the studio's decide that they won't prostitute themselves as Paramount/Dreamworks has done. And as for Paramount/Dreamworks, I think their finished as a major studio contender. They were strong for a time in the past, but in recent years have been struggling, this latest stunt will pretty much finish them in the eyes of the consumer - too much bad publicity.

[jayd]

What gets me is how, when someone like Bill talks common sense, HD-DVD fans jump onto him straight away, with their crap talk, and the same things, over, and over, and over again,

" we have PIP now, we have chinese players, we have Transformers, PS3 should not be counted ",

It's the same stories all the time, but they will eventually run out of excuses, as Blu-Ray will soon have PIP, evenyually have cheaper branded players, one day could have Transformers. I have posted a few times on other forums, but am now giving up, because as soon as I say something, which I know for a fact is true, or the facts I state are accurate, I am asked for proof, called a liar, or I am told that certain stories ain't true, even though it's been reported in numerous press articles, legitimate too.

Bill is right, the war has gone on too long, and should never have been in the first place. Hopefully, with more support, Blu-Ray will be the dominate format 2008 onwards.

[GaS]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

As usual they all stream out of the woodwork screaming bias and how he is engaging in "the very partisanship you're decrying"

Frankly every day I'm more and more certain that if Toshiba refuses to end it, Warner will end it for them. Total HD is a TotalBust, both in companies to sell it to and in yields, Warner knows as well as everyone else does that as Bill said, there is a time limit to get momentum before it becomes another LaserDisc.

If HD doesn't show signs of recovery, and instead sinks further as is highly likely, I believe Warner will dump it, especially since Nickerson is gone, and Paramount undoubtedly has some kind of out clause on their contract. If Warner falls and if the excellent rumors are true that Uni is eyeing neutrality (their people have been spotted at Panasonic's facility apparently), I expect that bad Xmas sales will be the excuse everyone needs to jump ship.

Warner putting TotalHD on hold is a big time sign. They are going to go exclusive with someone in the near future just to try to end the war. The question is whom will it be?

[Sonny]

I hope everybody is ''rite'' & we can see an end to this (in favor of BLU-RAY)very soon it is getting old .

[scott1256ca]

What gets me is how, when someone like Bill talks common sense, HD-DVD fans jump onto him straight away, with their crap talk, and the same things, over, and over, and over again

You expect these people to be rational. They aren't. They are foaming at the mouth, rabid HD DVD fanboys. These people seem to want to sit at Amir's feet and lap up every drop that spills off his chin. You can't reason with them. They are a cult. The will "believe" no matter what, unless you can separate them from the herd and deprogram them.

As to Warner making a decision: I hope so, but let's not forget, they started off as HD DVD only supporters and got wooed by Sony/BDA late 2005/early 2006 (roughly CES time?), likely with promises of PS3 sales and promises to have PiP, easy interactivity.

PS3 sales have not met expectations, at least not yet. PiP is still not here (remember it was promised for this past June up until earlier this year), and interactivity "seems" to be easier on HDi than in Java.

For Warner to support BD exclusively would, I think, require significant performance in PS3 sales with accompanying software sales, proof the PiP works and is not difficult to implement from a studio perspective and similar to any other interactivity they may want. As to cash incentives, I cannot guess.

As to Universal: Either Talk or Penton made a post in the last month or so that Universal was made a sweet offer and turned it down. He implied the "offer" was about as good as it was going to get. Perhaps they turned it down because they were already contractually obligated to HD DVD to stay exclusive until some particular time. Let's hope that was the reason.

[GaS]

Originally Posted by scott1256ca

You expect these people to be rational. They aren't. They are foaming at the mouth, rabid HD DVD fanboys. These people seem to want to sit at Amir's feet and lap up every drop that spills off his chin. You can't reason with them. They are a cult. The will "believe" no matter what, unless you can separate them from the herd and deprogram them.

As to Warner making a decision: I hope so, but let's not forget, they started off as HD DVD only supporters and got wooed by Sony/BDA late 2005/early 2006 (roughly CES time?), likely with promises of PS3 sales and promises to have PiP, easy interactivity.

PS3 sales have not met expectations, at least not yet. PiP is still not here (remember it was promised for this past June up until earlier this year), and interactivity "seems" to be easier on HDi than in Java.

For Warner to support BD exclusively would, I think, require significant performance in PS3 sales with accompanying software sales, proof the PiP works and is not difficult to implement from a studio perspective and similar to any other interactivity they may want. As to cash incentives, I cannot guess.

As to Universal: Either Talk or Penton made a post in the last month or so that Universal was made a sweet offer and turned it down. He implied the "offer" was about as good as it was going to get. Perhaps they turned it down because they were already contractually obligated to HD DVD to stay exclusive until some particular time. Let's hope that was the reason.

Even with PS3's "lackluster" sales, the amount of units in the field completely dwarfs hd-dvd devices.

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by GaS

Warner putting TotalHD on hold is a big time sign. They are going to go exclusive with someone in the near future just to try to end the war. The question is whom will it be?

If they really want to end the war, they would go blu, that would end it much, much quicker than if they went HD-DVD. I think you would see a stale-mate for quite some time if the latter happened.

The only thing that bugs me is why they have not put better SQ on the BD's. Unless they were not intending to use it in the future (HD-DVD exclusive).

Warner is in the drivers seat right now, and i'm sure they will make a decision before someone else decides the fate of HD content.

[Texitura]

Originally Posted by GaS

Warner putting TotalHD on hold is a big time sign. They are going to go exclusive with someone in the near future just to try to end the war. The question is whom will it be?

If they go Blu exclusive, it would likely end the format war. If they go the other way, studio support would basically be at a stalemate and I see that prolonging the war, not shortening it. If they really intend to end it, they'll go BD.

[glenn22]

Originally Posted by Texitura

If they go Blu exclusive, it would likely end the format war. If they go the other way, studio support would basically be at a stalemate and I see that prolonging the war, not shortening it. If they really intend to end it, they'll go BD.

Warner made it clear that it will depend entirely on sales and a vast mojority of sales. (meaning more of a gap than 2:1)

[Papi4baby]

What i would like, and know will deal a final blow to HDDVD is profile 1.1 player(Lower all player prices). And once a few films come out with BD-J and they work. I wonder what's going to happen. Because then, they will have nothing left to talk trash about. But they will anyways.
People dont like change, never have, never will. As per the WB issue it would be nice but i would not bet on it.
Another thing, is if Tosh Japan start manufaturing DB players, since the market over there is BD pretty much, i can't see them not wanting a piece of that pie.

[jermwhl]

This format war has really taken a lot of the joy out of home theater, at a time when high-def movies should be the best thing that ever happened to this community. It’s just a shame.

Ain't that the truth!!!! Didn't really think about it like this!!

[BigB88]

Warner and Universal are somewhat like Paramount, they will go to where the money/profit is, although I don't think they will prostitute themselves like Paramount did. Right now Warner supports both formats because 1.) There is no clear domination of one format over another (yet, this will change over the holiday’s), 2.) They have gained experience with pressing, authoring and marketing both and 3.) They are looking at other factors, such as costs, world-wide adoption and other support (from retailers, CE manufacturers, etc.). If the BDA can lower their player prices to a reasonable level, and this would not be $299, but more like $325 and get Sony to lower their PS3 prices to $425 or lower level (at least over the holiday period) and have Fox, Sony and Disney release additional popular titles (again over this critical holiday period), it won’t matter what HD-DVD does, it will be obvious that the 2:1 ratio will move to something like 4:1 and then Warner, to some extent Universal and even Paramount will need to re-think their positions. Warner most likely moving completely to the Blu-Ray side. The consumers want one format, the industry wants one format and even the studios want one format, to avoid duplication, distribution and marketing costs. Clearly Blu-Ray still has the momentum, but for them to keep this momentum, the BDA has to stop sitting on their thumbs and get way more aggressive then they have been of late. This is what has to occur over the next six months to end this thing once and for all.

[Texitura]

Originally Posted by glenn22

Warner made it clear that it will depend entirely on sales and a vast mojority of sales. (meaning more of a gap than 2:1)

I don't disagree, I was just saying that IF Warner wanted to end the format war, they should go Blu. They could have done it months ago if they chose to, so I doubt they will make a move before year's end. Unless there are some unexpected developments. Which I fully expect.

[Blu Tiger]

Great article with very good points.