When Will DVD Die?

[Edawg72]

Why worry about it? I don't think anybody here buys regular dvds anyways. Unless their Criterion or something.

[brettallica]

I was wondering when robinandtami would bring up the SuperFlyMediaComputer3000. I think it's a great idea (I've always been a big fan of that system) and I could see a trend going in that direction in the near future. How long it lasts, though, could be tempered greatly by some of the limitations of current computers brought up by jadedeath — namely storage space.

A couple other things to consider that I could see as hindrances to the SuperFlyMediaComputer3000...

HTPCs, as awesome as they are and as much as I love them (I've got two in my house), still "work" like computers. As long as that is the case, I doubt they will catch on en masse. There are millions and millions of consumers of greater age who have enough trouble with simple technology as it is; adding something like this into their lives probably doesn't make sense. So in that sense, the market will be limited to techies and younger generations who actually understand how to use it.

When considering one of the main selling points of the system, which is the copying of the disc to its own hard drive — or more challenging yet, a networked drive on a server — you've still got raw power issues, such as processing power and network reliability. I would say at this point in technology, we are dang close to having both be good enough to handle this on a consumer level, but not nearly enough people have that kind of gear to make it happen — myself included.

To be able to integrate this kind of kind of computer into a home theater, a few things would need to happen:

1. The supercomputer would need to have tons of cojones and hard drive space to copy the media efficiently/successfully, or a second computer or dedicated server with tons of hard drive space would need to be purchased. In this case you would also need a proper ethernet setup to handle the data writing.
2. The average user would greatly need to step up his/her game when it comes to understanding of computers, or the supercomputer would need to be very "standalone player-like" so that it could be learned with minimal hassle by those of advance age.
3. Copyright protection laws would have to be lifted/modified.

Not saying that those things couldn't or won't happen, but those are just some things I see. Believe me, this is not to bag on the idea. I love the concept; it's just that I see a lot of things in the way of something like this taking over for the general population.

Here's hoping that it does, though!

[Kirsty_Mc]

I think once you start seeing Blu-rays attached to magazines the way DVDs are now, the writing will be on the wall for DVD.

[Anthony P]

my guess 5 years at most (at least for any interesting meaning of death, if you mean absolutely no more DVDs to be found anywhere or used by anyone, then it could be a very long time, but for new mainstream titles coming on DVD or normal stores selling them, 5 years at most.

[Sussudio]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

my guess 5 years at most (at least for any interesting meaning of death, if you mean absolutely no more DVDs to be found anywhere or used by anyone, then it could be a very long time, but for new mainstream titles coming on DVD or normal stores selling them, 5 years at most.

agreed, i would say this is a pretty solid assumption, considering dvds have already been out for around for 10+ years. but like it's been said, having bluray players play dvds is both an advantage and a disadvantage to the format.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Sure it will. There are already tons of people who rip their blu's to PC and watch them from there, specifically for the convenience of having a digital catalog. Hard drive space isn't the limiting factor in making this happen. Concerns about copyright protection are the only limiting factor.

Again, I disagree.

I don't know too many people who have hard drives that are worthy of getting their entire BD collection on there.

I {personally} don't have the space to do so, even for 10 of them, due to the fact that I'm regularly slinging around double or triple digit gig files {that's why I got the Blu-Ray burner for backups} so a huge file like a Blu-Ray movie would take up massive space that I simply wouldn't have the ability to store for long periods of time.

As for the average consumer, Given that average PC hard drives are getting pretty big, but how would the average consumer know how to rip a Blu-Ray to their hard drives?

And when the next tech comes out, how would the average PC be able to keep up?

I mean, 4k files are pretty huge.

Logan

[icyteddy]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

Again, I disagree.

I don't know too many people who have hard drives that are worthy of getting their entire BD collection on there.

I {personally} don't have the space to do so, even for 10 of them, due to the fact that I'm regularly slinging around double or triple digit gig files {that's why I got the Blu-Ray burner for backups} so a huge file like a Blu-Ray movie would take up massive space that I simply wouldn't have the ability to store for long periods of time.

As for the average consumer, Given that average PC hard drives are getting pretty big, but how would the average consumer know how to rip a Blu-Ray to their hard drives?

And when the next tech comes out, how would the average PC be able to keep up?

I mean, 4k files are pretty huge.

Logan

I agree that the average PC user such as myself, would not be practical or cost effective to RIP a 50g file into a hard drive. Even now BD-R is still quite expensive per disc. Also, I don't know anybody that has a program to properly RIP a full blu ray file into their HD yet.

[MaCruz]

I'm really not sure how long DVD will be around, but I'm one who doesn't buy them anymore. I know plenty of people who still buy DVD's and they don't plan on upgrading anytime soon.

[tilallr1]

You guys make me laugh, who think DVD is going anywhere anytime soon. There are still exclusive titles (especially TV) that are only going to DVD. You cannot say that about Blu-ray. I think we are looking at DVD existing for the long term, especially since all Blu-ray players can handle DVD playback and make them look better than ever. Very few people I know are giving up the DVD collections in favour of Blu's. Its just not feasible. Especially in a recession which might last a while.

Personally, I would expect DVD to last another 10-15 years before we see it go the way of the dinosaur. I think Blu-ray will have an even longer shelf life. It all has to do with whether or not the next technology is significant to cause mass change. Most of us agree that HD was worth it, but beyond that ??? We will see. I am sceptical.

At some point the human eye will not be able to discern the difference in video material quality on the screen size most consumers have. Don't forget Audio has already reached its limit on Blu. Its presently lossless. Also, keep in mind that Blu-rays have the capability of 500GB, which is more than enough space to store lossless video. So I think Blu-ray is here to stay for a really, really long time.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by icyteddy

I agree that the average PC user such as myself, would not be practical or cost effective to RIP a 50g file into a hard drive. Even now BD-R is still quite expensive per disc. Also, I don't know anybody that has a program to properly RIP a full blu ray file into their HD yet.

What I am saying is that the BD people need to do this through the BD player... not the PC..... and it could be done right now with a firmware update to network capable BD players. The only real computer knowledge a person would have to have to use this feature would be knowing what drives on their home network they want to store their media on. The way I envision it... in your BD player's menu you would be able to enable or disable the option to copy to storage, and also from the menu you would select your network storage drives. If you've enabled this option... whenever you insert an uncopied disc.... the player will ask if you want to watch from disc or copy to storage. The firmware update would also of course include a "coverflow" type of app to enable viewing and selecting titles.

Again.... storage would not be the huge issue some make it out to be. Terabytes are running in the neighborhood of about $100 and less these days. That's over 900 gigs of storage... enough for at least 18 movies... IF you go with the assumption that every movie uses the full 50 gig.... obviously most don't use anywhere near the full 50. That's about $5 per movie. Some would be willing to spend that for this feature.... some would not. Some might choose to use it for only their very favorite films that they are most likely to watch multiple times. If this were adopted.... I imagine we'd see some of the largest and fastest drops in storage price in history, as more and more people started buying high capacity drives and even RAID's to store their media on... and that $5 per movie would rather quickly drop to under $1 per movie.

Obviously this wouldn't be for everyone... but it would be an excellent and desirable OPTION to add. IMO, it would speed up adoption rates AND extend the potential lifespan of BD. The only hang up would be copyright management. How would they be able to prevent this feature from being used on rented movies? Limited licenses most likely would be the answer. which would most likely mean the feature would be useless for used movies.... and could pose a problem if one had drive failures.

There WILL be a media delivery system one day that provides this feature... and IMO if someone else does it before BD does.... it will hasten the death of BD and any other physical media.

4k is not a factor in this as it will be vaporware for years. 1080P was around for decades before it's release to the public... and it will be the same for 4k.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by tilallr1

You guys make me laugh, who think DVD is going anywhere anytime soon. There are still exclusive titles (especially TV) that are only going to DVD. You cannot say that about Blu-ray. I think we are looking at DVD existing for the long term, especially since all Blu-ray players can handle DVD playback and make them look better than ever. Very few people I know are giving up the DVD collections in favour of Blu's. Its just not feasible. Especially in a recession which might last a while.

For starters, I used to work in video, and I heard the exact same argument about VHS.

Once Blu-Ray starts to see 80% of new release sales, everything will go to Blu-Ray. It's inevitable.

Consider this, even in a recession, last year Blu-Ray was what? 10% of new releases, and now {on average} it's getting up to the 15-20% range, in a few years people will be laughing at DVD owners much in the same way that people were laughing at VHS owners and telling them to get out of the stone age.

Personally, I would expect DVD to last another 10-15 years before we see it go the way of the dinosaur. I think Blu-ray will have an even longer shelf life. It all has to do with whether or not the next technology is significant to cause mass change. Most of us agree that HD was worth it, but beyond that ??? We will see. I am sceptical.

10-15 years?

Are you kidding?

That's pretty close to being the funniest thing that I've seen on this site so far.

At some point the human eye will not be able to discern the difference in video material quality on the screen size most consumers have. Don't forget Audio has already reached its limit on Blu. Its presently lossless. Also, keep in mind that Blu-rays have the capability of 500GB, which is more than enough space to store lossless video. So I think Blu-ray is here to stay for a really, really long time.

Do current Blu-Ray players have the ability to play 500GB disks?

You're blowing things out of proportion and making baseless claims that are even more exaggerated on them.

Awhile back people were saying that regular standard def TV's would never die. And that you wouldn't be able to tell the difference yadda yadda yadda.

Also, are you from High Def Digest... because this FUD sound awfully familiar.

Logan

[DonRSD]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

How's the new kid doing????? Little tougher to watch movies at night isn't it



I agree , the fact that ALL Blu-ray players play DVDs certainly extends DVDs life.....

I'm in no rush for DVD to go away, and I'm not eagerly hoping it will last forever either....




Surrender to the Flow...............

its a LOT tougher to watch tv.
i forgot how it was with our 6 1/2 year old son.

[brettallica]

^ My oldest (seven years old) is now pretty much "over" DVDs at this point. He's so picky; it's pretty funny. He'll still watch DVDs, though, since most of his movies are in that format. He never puts a DVD into our DVD player, though. We still have it hooked up to our home theater because it's a DVD recorder, as well as a VHS, which we use on rare occasion (although I absolutely hate it when it gets used).

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Again.... storage would not be the huge issue some make it out to be. Terabytes are running in the neighborhood of about $100 and less these days. That's over 900 gigs of storage... enough for at least 18 movies... IF you go with the assumption that every movie uses the full 50 gig.... obviously most don't use anywhere near the full 50. That's about $5 per movie.

but you are missing the big issues
1) you need a server (it is not only an HDD)
2) 18 movies per disk sounds good, but what how many people will , take appart the server to add an other drive? for me and you it is easy, but most people don't like doing that.
3) the 5$ a movie is above the price of the movie
4) if someone does not collect movies, it is easy to talk about 18 movies, but someone with a 200 collection would mean 11 dives+, someone with 400, 23+ how many drive bays will these servers have?
5) what happens if something happens to the server or drive
6) in order to offer legal movies on a home media server, the DRC will need to make 100% sure that they are not shared, the studios will not want one person to buy it and then 20, 30 ,40+ friends and family add it to their own server.

.....

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

but you are missing the big issues
1) you need a server (it is not only an HDD)
2) 18 movies per disk sounds good, but what how many people will , take appart the server to add an other drive? for me and you it is easy, but most people don't like doing that.
3) the 5$ a movie is above the price of the movie
4) if someone does not collect movies, it is easy to talk about 18 movies, but someone with a 200 collection would mean 11 dives+, someone with 400, 23+ how many drive bays will these servers have?
5) what happens if something happens to the server or drive
6) in order to offer legal movies on a home media server, the DRC will need to make 100% sure that they are not shared, the studios will not want one person to buy it and then 20, 30 ,40+ friends and family add it to their own server.

.....

When you look at some of the set-ups here and on other sites..... is there REALLY any doubt in your mind that there would be plenty of people who would more than willingly upgrade their PC's and/or storage to get this function?

Yes... DRM is a concern. It will always be the top concern for the MPAA... which is why we haven't had this very simple feature ages ago. If you look at it... what I am suggesting is really not much different from Sony's new 400 disc BD player. It's putting your collection in one location for easy, convenient access. It will be tough to divorce the MPAA from the idea of locking films to a physical medium.... but one day they will have no choice.... just like the RIAA had to learn about purely digital content.... so will the MPAA... ONE DAY.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

When you look at some of the set-ups here and on other sites..... is there REALLY any doubt in your mind that there would be plenty of people who would more than willingly upgrade their PC's and/or storage to get this function?

yes, most people don't want the hassle and it is way too complicated. Will a few do it? yes, but anything is interesting only if it can reach 50% of the pop and that has no chance. I have over 400 BDs (probably getting close to 500 with some being multi-disk, like the Star Trek 6 pack which would take up 1/3 of an HDD by itself), how much would a server which can have 25-30 1TB drives cost me? why would I waste that much money on something that brings me nothing? except for pirates, what does a server bring me (or anyone else) except for large cost and extra trouble/time (moving movies to HDD...)

Yes... DRM is a concern. It will always be the top concern for the MPAA... which is why we haven't had this very simple feature ages ago. If you look at it... what I am suggesting is really not much different from Sony's new 400 disc BD player. It's putting your collection in one location for easy, convenient access. It will be tough to divorce the MPAA from the idea of locking films to a physical medium.... but one day they will have no choice.... just like the RIAA had to learn about purely digital content.... so will the MPAA... ONE DAY.

my collection is in one location and extremely easy access, i go to the shelve and pick a movie, it can't be any easier then that, it takes a fraction of a second, where do you have your movies and it is such an issue? you can buy a book case for 50$ or less and it will most likely hold all your movies and will be easier access because you can go directly to the case instead of needing to go through a long list on a remote to find it. As for legal ripping http://www.cepro.com/article/kaleide...ainst_dvd_cca/

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

my collection is in one location and extremely easy access, i go to the shelve and pick a movie, it can't be any easier then that, it takes a fraction of a second, where do you have your movies and it is such an issue? you can buy a book case for 50$ or less and it will most likely hold all your movies and will be easier access because you can go directly to the case instead of needing to go through a long list on a remote to find it. As for legal ripping http://www.cepro.com/article/kaleide...ainst_dvd_cca/

I understand that you just don't quite appreciate the convenience factor or the "cool" factor that this would offer.... but just picture it. It's Saturday night and you have some friends over to enjoy a movie in your HT. It's time to pick a movie. Your friends can......

A: Remain comfortably reclined in their nice HT chairs as you scroll through your collection on the big screen. Everyone agrees on say.... romantic comedy.... so you narrow the selections down to that genre. Someone sees a cover they are interested in so you select it so that they can read the movie description. When they have all settled on the title they want to see... you simply hit play and you are on your way.

B: All gather around your DVD shelves, straining to read the small titles on the spines... occasionally pulling one out to see more info.

One option take the HT experience to the next level. The other is the 1988 VHS way of doing things. What I am describing WILL undoubtedly come to pass. It's only a question of when...... and who gives it to us first. If it's not BD... then whoever it is will hasten BD's death substantially.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

I understand that you just don't quite appreciate the convenience factor or the "cool" factor that this would offer.... but just picture it. It's Saturday night and you have some friends over to enjoy a movie in your HT. It's time to pick a movie. Your friends can......

A: Remain comfortably reclined in their nice HT chairs as you scroll through your collection on the big screen. Everyone agrees on say.... romantic comedy.... so you narrow the selections down to that genre. Someone sees a cover they are interested in so you select it so that they can read the movie description. When they have all settled on the title they want to see... you simply hit play and you are on your way.

B: All gather around your DVD shelves, straining to read the small titles on the spines... occasionally pulling one out to see more info.

One option take the HT experience to the next level. The other is the 1988 VHS way of doing things. What I am describing WILL undoubtedly come to pass. It's only a question of when...... and who gives it to us first. If it's not BD... then whoever it is will hasten BD's death substantially.

and you can't get out of your frame of reference of someone that does not own many movies I have many hundreds of BDs and if we look at the DVDs that is several thousands. You can't scroll through the movies. If I had 10 or 20 or 30 movies then could be cool to have a friend over and scroll through them but but having a few friends over (we have already been more then 20 in the HT) and way too many movies make something like that completely 100% inconvenient. By the time you scroll through all the movies, get everyone’s opinion, choose a movie the whole day would have passed. If there are a few people I usually choose before hand a handful of movies and then let them make the final choice, but I agree, it is much better to go in the theatre, pass through several hundreds movies including movies inappropriate for some of the people in the room ( come on what is cooler then showing my 4 year old nephew and 6 year old niece the cover of Nightmare on elm street with Freddy on it) and then getting them to reach an agreement.

Anyways we are completely off topic since if you like a media server, that is your problem, this thread is when will DVD die and media server is completely the unexisting benefits of media servers have nothing to do with it (people can pirate to them from DVDs, DVD is a distribution media and not storage, so even if you have your media server today -or will get one in the future- you still need to get the movies to it)

[Jellybeans]

The DVD will die when it's gonna say R.I.P. DVD

[Edawg72]

When we're out of the recession!!