Both formats can coexist...

[Bombthroat]

I do not believe both sides can coexist. I can see one format totally dominating (with all studio backing) and the second one lingering for a while but I don't see them as equals in the longterm.

I know where I've put my money.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by RedIsNotBlue

I think the future is downloads. But I mean the future as in not for a long time.

You ready to download and store 50GB?

Oh, that's too much. Well, perhaps if we try to convince everyone that low bit-rate VC-1 and lossy audio is perfect?

Wait a minute, isn't it a heck of a coincidence that Microsoft is trying to do just that with HD DVD?

[Blaumann]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

You ready to download and store 50GB?

Oh, that's too much. Well, perhaps if we try to convince everyone that low bit-rate VC-1 and lossy audio is perfect?

Wait a minute, isn't it a heck of a coincidence that Microsoft is trying to do just that with HD DVD?

Don´t worry, i'm sure to incredible power of the new codecs will allow for 5GB downloads (like 720p + DD). Still looks HDish on a small HDTV or a PC monitor....

[Bombthroat]

Originally Posted by RedIsNotBlue

I think the future is downloads. But I mean the future as in not for a long time.

It all depends on how long in the future you are talking about. What is being offered now as a download is similar to what MP3 was to music (minus the success). It is extremely compressed 720p video and low-grade sound quality.

I don't know about anyone else around here but I've never been watching one of my Blu-ray's and thought to myself, "Man, this is way to high quality. If only there was a way I could get this overcompressed, downrezed, and cut the sound quality by a factor of five or so. Yeah, that would make this better."

As inferior as MP3 is to even CD quality it did offer one distinct advantage, and that was portability. People were willing to sacrifice quality for ease of use. With HD DUD or download, you sacrifice quality because of ignorance. There is no advantage to these formats.

I digress, sorry for the rant.

[caliminius]

Originally Posted by skubrick

http://www.tvpredictions.com/studios091707.htm

How many people think both can survive for a long period? Say 5 - 7 years, until the next format comes along.

I think that if there isn't a clear winner by the end of 2008, both formats are doomed. Two formats harms everyone, which is pretty clear to anyone reading forums such as this. I'm hoping that the holiday season provides a clear victory for Blu-Ray and that victory will lead Warner to drop HD-DVD in an effort to bring the war to an end. Hopefully, this will be followed shortly thereafter by Universal either going neutral or switching to Blu-Ray, leaving Paramount the odd man out.

Since Warner is the only major neutral studio, I think they are the one to watch for the rest of the year. If Warner releases on Blu-Ray do huge numbers compared to their HD-DVD counterparts, it gives clear evidence that sales are stronger on Blu-Ray. To me, Warner's recent comments seem to indicate the studio is looking to pick a side (probably Blu) in an effort to end the war once and for all. Warner and Blu-Ray only releases dominate the top ten sales week after week with Paramount and Universal not even making a dent. With Warner Blu-Ray only, sales would quickly be dominated by Blu-Ray. And then it's game over for HD-DVD.

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by RedIsNotBlue

I think the future is downloads. But I mean the future as in not for a long time.

Ultimately, yes. VOD will eventually have a library of something other than crap that doesn't look like the VOD crap you can purchase today.

I prefer to always have the physical media in-hand, but I realize that i'm going to lose. All studios would prefer to rent you the movie over and over and over. But download in mass-quantity isn't realistic yet. Look at what ISPs are doing now to people who consume too much bandwidth and transfer too much data? They are clamping down, in some cases disconnecting people.

The infrastructure can't actually handle it. It's one of the dirty little secret of cable operators. If everyone were to be downloading HD content round the clock, we'd overflow the pipe.

Ever watch HD content from Comcast? Looks terrible. They compress it so much it may as well be upscaled DVD. And those with better displays that are calibrated properly make the flaws even more apparent.

My greatest fear however is that video will fall victim to the "itunes" effect. Those who really strive for the best picture and sound will become niche (more so than they are). DVD -> HD/BLU-RAY isn't quite as dramatic as VHS->DVD for most. Certainly not until 1080p sets become the norm and people can truly appreciate all that hi-resolution has to offer.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by lch

why don't they say "uni and para which back hd-dvd exclusively, could lose more than $1 billion next year by not releasing films on blu-ray" ? (estimate of blu installed base 6:1 to hd)

bias article.

because if they said that there would be no reason for HD DVD.. see thats the point..the media like to throw out little articles like this and yet they only point toward the Blu-Ray side.

[jamclaur]

Originally Posted by patrick99

The proposition that both formats can coexist is basically an HD DVD talking point, developed after it became clear that the red side was not going to win.

X2!

Sounds like the propaganda of the scared.

[JAG1977]

Should every other studio eventually go dual format, that presumably leaves Sony still Blu-ray exclusive, PS3 and virtually every major CE produces Blu-ray players.

Most consumers would opt for the Blu-ray variety through name and recognition alone.

[JAG1977]

Originally Posted by Spankey

I think that outcome to be highly likely. A stalemate may force more companies to produce dual format players. Then it is down to the studio to choose the format of their choice for given titles.

Could you see studios choosing the format that is not compatible with millions of PS3's?

[jamclaur]

If the PS3 is truely going to have a 10 year life span then I think Sony already knows Blu-ray is going to win.

Why do you think M$ didn't require the hd-dvd player in the 360... It's inferior and they know it.

[JAG1977]

One of the biggest mistakes HD-DVD fans make about PS3 is the attach rate.

Sure it's low ATM, but as awarness for Blu-ray grows, more owners will buy into the format, even those who currently own a PS3 but still buy DVD.

The tojan horse plan is still in phase one!

[E-Dogg]

There will be only one and it will be Blu-Ray.

[Sonny]

I have not bought a DVD in almost a year !! & it will stay that way, the BLU-RAY way!!

[tron3]

This format war is the whole thing stagnating the growth of HD video to begin with! When VHS won the format war, people knew they could bring a movie to someones home and be able to play it. Same for DVD now that it has wide spread penetration.

People are going to wait for a winner even if everyone went neutral. It is confusing and unfair not only to consumers, but to retail outlets who are desperate to find the shelf space for this stuff. They have less than you think.

A third technology won't knock either HD-DVD or blu-ray off the radar. That would have the same effect as an independent running for president. You can have the best ideas, but people choose largely Dem or Rep. A third technology has no realistic chance.

SOMEONE has to come out ahead. Period.

[Dotpattern]

"I foresee two possibilities. One, coming face to face with two formats for much longer would simply put the consumer into shock and they would simply pass out. Or two, the encounter could create a time paradox, the results of which could start a chain reaction that would unravel the very fabric of the space time continuum, and destroy the entire universe! Granted, that's a worse case scenario. The destruction might in fact be very localized, limited to our own galaxy."

- Doc Brown

[RedIsNotBlue]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

no way! there are still a lot of people on dial-up, including me. A dumb move by microsoft to kill BD

Exactly why I said not until way into the future when downloads become easier and space becomes more available.

[RedIsNotBlue]

Originally Posted by frank_t

Ultimately, yes. VOD will eventually have a library of something other than crap that doesn't look like the VOD crap you can purchase today.

I prefer to always have the physical media in-hand, but I realize that i'm going to lose. All studios would prefer to rent you the movie over and over and over. But download in mass-quantity isn't realistic yet. Look at what ISPs are doing now to people who consume too much bandwidth and transfer too much data? They are clamping down, in some cases disconnecting people.

The infrastructure can't actually handle it. It's one of the dirty little secret of cable operators. If everyone were to be downloading HD content round the clock, we'd overflow the pipe.

Ever watch HD content from Comcast? Looks terrible. They compress it so much it may as well be upscaled DVD. And those with better displays that are calibrated properly make the flaws even more apparent.

My greatest fear however is that video will fall victim to the "itunes" effect. Those who really strive for the best picture and sound will become niche (more so than they are). DVD -> HD/BLU-RAY isn't quite as dramatic as VHS->DVD for most. Certainly not until 1080p sets become the norm and people can truly appreciate all that hi-resolution has to offer.

I know I agree right now it is impossible. But in the future it is going to be more possible. Studios see how many people are downloading these days.

[RedIsNotBlue]

Originally Posted by Bombthroat

It all depends on how long in the future you are talking about. What is being offered now as a download is similar to what MP3 was to music (minus the success). It is extremely compressed 720p video and low-grade sound quality.

I don't know about anyone else around here but I've never been watching one of my Blu-ray's and thought to myself, "Man, this is way to high quality. If only there was a way I could get this overcompressed, downrezed, and cut the sound quality by a factor of five or so. Yeah, that would make this better."

As inferior as MP3 is to even CD quality it did offer one distinct advantage, and that was portability. People were willing to sacrifice quality for ease of use. With HD DUD or download, you sacrifice quality because of ignorance. There is no advantage to these formats.

I digress, sorry for the rant.

Once again why I said not until in the distant future. Physical media is here to stay for a long time.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by Neo65

If one does not take a clear lead within 18 months, people will be less likely to buy into players (we've seen that even as low as $219, HD-A2 is selling less than S300, it's not just price, you have to make people want HDM).

Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD roughly 2:1; how much clearer lead does there need to be?!