81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by frank_t

Seriously - I've had people over to watch BDs on my PS3. Sure - they all agree it looks better. But they are not about to spend for a new player nor for the additional cost for the movies as they deem DVD to be good enough.

And I have single handedly convinced 4 people to buy PS3s purely because of how impressive Blu-Ray was.

We are before the adoption stage of Blu-Ray. This means prices are high...and thus people will compare price to desire and sometimes say "Eh, not good enough". But it doesn't matter. When (note When, not if) Blu-Ray gets acceptance, the 200$ players will come, and people like your friends will buy one.

Every single statement made about how Blu-Ray will not make it was said about DVD, and yet Blu-Rays are selling faster than DVDs did...and DVD didn't have any real competition!

It took months for DVD to even get studios to sign on with it. There is not one single major studio which is not involved in HD discs. People proclaiming HD discs are dead or permanent niche are either brainwashed by spin or delusional.

[mainman]

Aren't the new Nielson number out yet? The week of September 23rd?

It should've been out now, isnt it?

[undertow1141]

wah wah Paramount left, oh wah wah.

Sales is what talks. And the weekly sales numbers have been saying the truth as it is. If you wannna run away because of one little pissant studio leaving, then be gone, and good riddance to bad rubbish.

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Ok, but all I was trying to point out is that the SACD vs DVD-A war had minimal publicity as against the other examples. In the minds of those behind SACD and DVD-A, neither format was worth promoting extensively in mass media. In this respect HD-DVD vs BD is different. The publicity is set to increase (prepare for upcoming HD-DVD ads during Sunday night NFL games).

To those who think that this format war is like a reprise of that over high-res audio, rest assured that those paying for the advertising think differently. They fully expect one format to gain mass acceptance and are investing in ads accordingly.

good point. i think that hd-dvd is willing to spend more to win this war. they are proving it time and time again.

another case in point: opened this weeks bestbuy ad. they do next to nothing to promote the fact that it's on blu-ray except to show the box and the $34.99 price tag (WTF FOX!!! are you INSANE?????)

flip a page or two in same ad and there is the usual weekend half-page ad for HD-DVD players and movies.

WTF BDA? you don't have the luxery of inevitability that DVD had with one format to succeed VHS. you're caught in a war and the only way to win is spend what it takes or take your bat and glove and go home.

63:37 is a decent lead and it's been that way for some time. you know why? 'cause right now it's only those who care with deeper pockets investing in either. when the main barrier to entry (price) is removed and the masses adopt a format, we're in trouble.

[Jack Torrance]

Is this still the thread to discuss Nielssen/Videoscan sales numbers? (sarcasm). Sorry, but the last page or so seemed to go really OT.

The new numbers for weekending 9/23 are out if anyone's interested...

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=4

63% - 37% in favour of blu-ray. Up from 61% - 39% the week previous.

[LeoneFan]

Originally Posted by frank_t

good point. i think that hd-dvd is willing to spend more to win this war. they are proving it time and time again.

another case in point: opened this weeks bestbuy ad. they do next to nothing to promote the fact that it's on blu-ray except to show the box and the $34.99 price tag (WTF FOX!!! are you INSANE?????)

flip a page or two in same ad and there is the usual weekend half-page ad for HD-DVD players and movies.

WTF BDA? you don't have the luxery of inevitability that DVD had with one format to succeed VHS. you're caught in a war and the only way to win is spend what it takes or take your bat and glove and go home.

63:37 is a decent lead and it's been that way for some time. you know why? 'cause right now it's only those who care with deeper pockets investing in either. when the main barrier to entry (price) is removed and the masses adopt a format, we're in trouble.

Exactly!! That's what I was saying. The BDA just doesn't seem to give a crap, there is no cohesive advertising of the format as a whole. They are just riding the coat tales of the PS3 thinking it'll lead them to victory. They have always had and still have a very nonchalant attitude about the whole thing. Otherwise the sales ratio wouldn't have stayed at 2:1 for the whole year, it would have increased.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by frank_t

63:37 is a decent lead and it's been that way for some time. you know why? 'cause right now it's only those who care with deeper pockets investing in either. when the main barrier to entry (price) is removed and the masses adopt a format, we're in trouble.

The main barrier is studio support and disc prices (for both formats). HD DVD is already as cheap enough for general adoption. But, it's subsidized.

Toshiba couldn't afford general adoption. All they can do is try to make studios second guess their backing and move neutral, and try to kill off Blu-ray. At which point the prices will get stuck at $199/$299 for years as the costs drop to make that a profitable price point.

People seem to consistently believe that something driven by royalty cheating (<< $100 DVD players) is going to repeat. It is different this time. The royalties are more. The controls are stricter. And the players are far more complex.

Gary

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Exactly!! That's what I was saying. The BDA just doesn't seem to give a crap, there is no cohesive advertising of the format as a whole. They are just riding the coat tales of the PS3 thinking it'll lead them to victory. They have always had and still have a very nonchalant attitude about the whole thing. Otherwise the sales ratio wouldn't have stayed at 2:1 for the whole year, it would have increased.

upon reflection, the main reason i took back my BDP-S300 and picked up the PS3 is because I also like to play games and figured if BD fails, at least I'll get additional mileage out of the PS3.

that said, I've also decided, despite what I've posted in these forums in the past, that should BD fail, I will purchase a top of the line HD-DVD player. once hooked on HD, I can't give it up. and HD-DVD is at least clearly better than SD DVD.

i don't believe at this point in time that VOD or downloads are a viable alternative. look at the horrible experience on the 360. look at what ISPs are already struggling with, capping monthly transfer 'cause they can't keep up with people downloading music and crappy u-tube videos. the infrastructure just isn't there and I doubt it it will be for some time. apple tv looks terrible (guess what Apple - you can get away with crap for audio, but not for video when you blow up your crappy encode to a 60" HD set!)

anyway -- format wars are stupid. BD is technically better (not superior) than HD-DVD. the HD group seems to be going the distance.

can't we all just get along?

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

The main barrier is studio support and disc prices (for both formats). HD DVD is already as cheap enough for general adoption. But, it's subsidized.

Toshiba couldn't afford general adoption. All they can do is try to make studios second guess their backing and move neutral, and try to kill off Blu-ray. At which point the prices will get stuck at $199/$299 for years as the costs drop to make that a profitable price point.

People seem to consistently believe that something driven by royalty cheating (<< $100 DVD players) is going to repeat. It is different this time. The royalties are more. The controls are stricter. And the players are far more complex.

Gary

i don't know Gary. I think when you have $199 players at brick-n-mortar in quantity, we'll be able to make that call.

would have been interesting had there only been one format to see where we would be today, no?

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by frank_t

good point. i think that hd-dvd is willing to spend more to win this war. they are proving it time and time again.

Sony has spent more on the PS3 than Toshiba has spent on HD-DVD by a factor of probably 10:1.

WTF BDA? you don't have the luxery of inevitability that DVD had with one format to succeed VHS. you're caught in a war and the only way to win is spend what it takes or take your bat and glove and go home.

FFS, DVD had no such thing as inevitability, for a long time it had NO studio support whatsoever, and a lot of people thought VHS was going to prevent it from catching on period.

63:37 is a decent lead and it's been that way for some time. you know why? 'cause right now it's only those who care with deeper pockets investing in either. when the main barrier to entry (price) is removed and the masses adopt a format, we're in trouble.

THE WAR WILL BE OVER BEFORE THE MASSES ADOPT EITHER FORMAT. BY THAT TIME EVEN BLU-RAY WILL HAVE CHEAP PLAYERS. I hate to yell but good lord. I think I'm about done with Blu-Ray.com. The completely defeated attitude here is ridiculous for a format that is utterly dominating the so-called war.

[davidPS3]

Originally Posted by Jonty

Transformers will sell really well. That being said, I don't think it will have a significant effect on the YTD numbers. Especially since a good chunk of the year has already passed...

I agree, one movie is not going to drastically change the out-come at the end of the year when the studios look back at the entire year.

Look at what is coming out for Blu thru the end of the year and look what HD-DVD has coming. No contest!

[Anthony P]

Keep up the good work, Anthony!

thanks, but I did not do anything. The point was that as people get to know BD they will like it and buy into it. This worry that it will go nowhere (like HD DVD) is misplaced at this time. I don't think anyone knows the future, but people like quality, the problem is that they don't always know there can be a difference. I did not do anything, I did not tell them to get BD or a PS3, it was them seeing it and seeing the difference that did it. And the same way it did it in these two cases (there were others where it was more discussions and what format to buy), it will do it with most J6P

[Anthony P]

A $199 player is only good when you have full studio support.

you don't need 100% but what is needed are two things

at least equal studio support (where it is most) and a look of some momentum. At this point HD DVD is just too deep in the hole, they have zero momentum and not enough studio support to make it worth it to anyone (but some dumb misinformed person) to buy into HD DVD

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by frank_t

good point. i think that hd-dvd is willing to spend more to win this war. they are proving it time and time again.

another case in point: opened this weeks bestbuy ad. they do next to nothing to promote the fact that it's on blu-ray except to show the box and the $34.99 price tag (WTF FOX!!! are you INSANE?????)

flip a page or two in same ad and there is the usual weekend half-page ad for HD-DVD players and movies.

WTF BDA? you don't have the luxery of inevitability that DVD had with one format to succeed VHS. you're caught in a war and the only way to win is spend what it takes or take your bat and glove and go home.

63:37 is a decent lead and it's been that way for some time. you know why? 'cause right now it's only those who care with deeper pockets investing in either. when the main barrier to entry (price) is removed and the masses adopt a format, we're in trouble.

Frank,
You are one the biggest doubters and defeatist I have seen on this website. You are so busy trumping up what the HD DVD PG group is doing, that you cannot see the forrest for the trees at what the BDA is doing.

If you are so fearful at your bluray investment, so quick to point out what the BDA has not done, and so quick to champion what the HD DVD PG HAS done, go out buy you a HD DVD player, support HD DVD, and move on from this website. Your defeatist attitude is not helpful, can spread to others, and is nothing more than HD DVD PG talking points. If you are confident in your investment in bluray, stop talking about what the other side is doing, go buy your favorite bluray movies, but by all means give us a break on the defeatiest attitude, it is making me sick

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by frank_t

i don't know Gary. I think when you have $199 players at brick-n-mortar in quantity, we'll be able to make that call.

would have been interesting had there only been one format to see where we would be today, no?

Do people honestly believe that right now there is some huge pent up demand for HDM players, and all people are waiting for is the price to hit $199 ($149/$99 or whatever)?

The price lubricates the purchases when demand for the product already exists. The price itself doesn't generate the demand. It's a Graffeo-ism to think that hardware LEADS software.

The demand for HDM is curtailed by the studio split, and the price of media. With full studio support and lower disc prices, the demand would be MUCH higher. Then, a great price point will make units fly off the shelf.

Gary

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

you don't need 100% but what is needed are two things

at least equal studio support (where it is most) and a look of some momentum. At this point HD DVD is just too deep in the hole, they have zero momentum and not enough studio support to make it worth it to anyone (but some dumb misinformed person) to buy into HD DVD

Anthony, fact will prove that a $199 player has little value when you only have 3 studios exclusively supporting you. I just this weekend saw a customer refuse to buy the A2 because I told him he wasn't going to get Cars, Pirates, Fantastic4, or Close Encounters to play on that player.

The salesman was furious at me at first, until the customer decided to buy the bps300 instead. When a person wants movies, a cheap player makes no difference if he or she cannot get them.

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Do people honestly believe that right now there is some huge pent up demand for HDM players, and all people are waiting for is the price to hit $199 ($149/$99 or whatever)?

The price lubricates the purchases when demand for the product already exists. The price itself doesn't generate the demand. It's a Graffeo-ism to think that hardware LEADS software.

The demand for HDM is curtailed by the studio split, and the price of media. With full studio support and lower disc prices, the demand would be MUCH higher. Then, a great price point will make units fly off the shelf.

Gary

Thanks for this Gary. If I wasn't brown, turning blue would be easy trying to explain this over and over again. Oh wait, I did turn blu

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Sony has spent more on the PS3 than Toshiba has spent on HD-DVD by a factor of probably 10:1.


FFS, DVD had no such thing as inevitability, for a long time it had NO studio support whatsoever, and a lot of people thought VHS was going to prevent it from catching on period.


THE WAR WILL BE OVER BEFORE THE MASSES ADOPT EITHER FORMAT. BY THAT TIME EVEN BLU-RAY WILL HAVE CHEAP PLAYERS. I hate to yell but good lord. I think I'm about done with Blu-Ray.com. The completely defeated attitude here is ridiculous for a format that is utterly dominating the so-called war.

relax. forums are for discussion.

[EDITED out the rest of this post 'cause these forums are not for posting anything that could be construed as negative towards blu-ray]

[Anthony P]

63:37 is a decent lead and it's been that way for some time. you know why? 'cause right now it's only those who care with deeper pockets investing in either. when the main barrier to entry (price) is removed and the masses adopt a format, we're in trouble.

the main barrier of entry is the war and that will continue as long as HD DVD is around. What you are missing is that every week more players are sold, more BD players are sold then HD DVD players. Yes the ratios have not changed much but BD is at 1.5x HD DVD and the market is growing. For the ratios to stay equal it means BD is expanding faster.

i.e. let's say a week several moths ago had 20k/30k disks sold, today it could be 40k/60k BD grew by 30k while HD DVD by 20k (1.5x more) if it is 80/120 the differences are 60 and 90 (1.5x more). If BD is at around 1.5x HD DVD and it remains the same BD needs to grow 1.5x faster to maintain it, if it increases then BD is increasing more then 1.5x faster and until it reaches 50/50 BD needs to expand faster then HD DVD to maintain it. If the difference remained the same then ratios should shrink for BD (i.e. like the age Bob was 6 when Henry was 4 (so the ratio of their age was 60:40 at that time) since everyone ages equally in 15 years B:H=21:19= 52.5:47.5

In a mature environment the ratios being the same means nothing has changed but in an emerging market (like HdoM) being the weaker format means that you are losing grtound. The problem is that as HdoM grows as a whole BD becomes harder and harder to dismiss while at the same time it becomes harder and harder to keep customers, and companies interested in HD DVD. For example at this point (assuming the Paramount info is true) 150M could sound interesting for the next 18 months, but if in 18months BD is still 60:40 but now there tends to be 20M disks sold a month would 150M for 18months still be as interesting?

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence

Frank,
You are one the biggest doubters and defeatist I have seen on this website. You are so busy trumping up what the HD DVD PG group is doing, that you cannot see the forrest for the trees at what the BDA is doing.

If you are so fearful at your bluray investment, so quick to point out what the BDA has not done, and so quick to champion what the HD DVD PG HAS done, go out buy you a HD DVD player, support HD DVD, and move on from this website. Your defeatist attitude is not helpful, can spread to others, and is nothing more than HD DVD PG talking points. If you are confident in your investment in bluray, stop talking about what the other side is doing, go buy your favorite bluray movies, but by all means give us a break on the defeatiest attitude, it is making me sick

sorry to make you sick dude.

if this forum is the wrong place for any kind of open discussion re: the competing formats, then i'll not do so and keep on topic of blu-ray only.