81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Anthony P]

would have been interesting had there only been one format to see where we would be today, no?

yes

i don't know Gary. I think when you have $199 players at brick-n-mortar in quantity, we'll be able to make that call.

Frank, don't take this the wrong way but the problem with this thinking is what happens when they hit 200$ will it be just as defeatist with
"i don't know Gary. I think when you have $150 players at brick-n-mortar in quantity, we'll be able to make that call."

When BD came out it was 1000 vs 500 now it is 500 vs 300 and by the time HD DVD gets to 200 it it will be even closer. You are also forgetting that the same was Toshiba is subsidizing HD DVD, BD companies could subsidize the cheaper BD players (and with profiles make the difference more interesting).

[Anthony P]

Anthony, fact will prove that a $199 player has little value when you only have 3 studios exclusively supporting you. I just this weekend saw a customer refuse to buy the A2 because I told him he wasn't going to get Cars, Pirates, Fantastic4, or Close Encounters to play on that player.

The salesman was furious at me at first, until the customer decided to buy the bps300 instead. When a person wants movies, a cheap player makes no difference if he or she cannot get them.

fully agree, not that I think this will happen, but if Universal or Paramount stayed HD DVD and Sony stayed BD but all other studios where neutral, would a cheaper player be enticing? All I was saying is that a large% needs to support HD DVD but not necessarily 100%)

[Jack Torrance]

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence

Anthony, fact will prove that a $199 player has little value when you only have 3 studios exclusively supporting you. I just this weekend saw a customer refuse to buy the A2 because I told him he wasn't going to get Cars, Pirates, Fantastic4, or Close Encounters to play on that player.

The salesman was furious at me at first, until the customer decided to buy the bps300 instead. When a person wants movies, a cheap player makes no difference if he or she cannot get them.

Sir Terry - I also hope you mentioned that that "Rat" movie is coming out in November

I mentioned this fact to an "on the fence" friend of mine, and that movie alone being available on BD only was enough to tip the scales for him to get a BD player instead of a Tocheepa HD-DVD.

I think Ratatouille will handily beat Shrek 3 in head-to-head HD movie sales.

[Anthony P]

i disagree re: dvd. it was an inevitability. what else was there on the horizon?

why was it inevitable, there is often nothing on the horizon and something is not accepted.

you could safely buy DVD at some point and be assured that everyone was on board (DIVX not withstanding). you can't get that with BD or HD-DVD.

exactly, and that is when DVD took off. When it had support from everyone and looked like it would replace VHS people jumped on board with the cheaper players. No one has that guarantee now and that is why HD DVDs cheaper players won’t convince anyone that does not care a lot and most people that care a lot will go with the format that offers the movies they want and is winning the n the one with a fire sell going on.

[Anthony P]

if this forum is the wrong place for any kind of open discussion re: the competing formats, then i'll not do so and keep on topic of blu-ray only.

no, the forum can have open intelligent discussion on any BD related subject, but this is the Nielsen thread so discussion should be relatively limited to that.

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

why was it inevitable, there is often nothing on the horizon and something is not accepted.



exactly, and that is when DVD took off. When it had support from everyone and looked like it would replace VHS people jumped on board with the cheaper players. No one has that guarantee now and that is why HD DVDs cheaper players won’t convince anyone that does not care a lot and most people that care a lot will go with the format that offers the movies they want and is winning the n the one with a fire sell going on.

good points all.

...and thanks to those who bother to debate rather than brand people as "defeatist", "brown", etc...

[jubaiweaponx]

It truely is an open forum for all but they definitely monitor the topic and if it gets off topic someone usually let`s you know ,lol

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by Jack Torrance

Sir Terry - I also hope you mentioned that that "Rat" movie is coming out in November

I mentioned this fact to an "on the fence" friend of mine, and that movie alone being available on BD only was enough to tip the scales for him to get a BD player instead of a Tocheepa HD-DVD.

I think Ratatouille will handily beat Shrek 3 in head-to-head HD movie sales.

No need to mention that, it was playing on a bluray demo disc when I was talking to the customer.

I have to totally agree with the shrek comment since I painfully saw Shrek when it intially came out.

Sir Terry????? Off with your bloody head!!!!

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by frank_t

good points all.

...and thanks to those who bother to debate rather than brand people as "defeatist", "brown", etc...

This is not about debate, it is about focus. With all of the great things happening in front, and behind the scenes( consistant sales leads and one dollar to heading it back to the topic), you are focusing on the BDA not playing tit for tat with the HD DVD PG. The HD DVD group has to do the things it does, and for bluray to succeed, it just doesn't have to do those same things.

The BDA does not have to pay any studio exclusively support it a dime. However, based on recent events, apparently the HD DVD PG does.

The HD DVD PG " $199 bluray killing cheap chinese player" is going to be released, but the retailers with the biggest impact on propagating and proliferating these players(Walmart and Target) will not be selling them in their stores. What better way to capatilize on the fact that you have more heavy hitting titles leading up to the heavy christmas shopping season, than by cutting the pipeline to the opponents "secret killing machine" player.

Universal and Paramount only have three titles that can compete with any weeks release of bluray titles. Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, and maybe Shrek the 3. Bluray has more than that from one bluray exclusive studio.

Now it didn't take me long to think up these positive things that Bluray has in its favor, so why with the BDA isn't doing a thing mumble jumble?

You need to realize that there are more things going on than you can see(and hear for that matter). So before you come to a judgement against the BDA, remember that it is based only on what you know, and not what is.

Okay, getting back to those Nielson figures, considering we didn't have but a ham and cheese sandwich(dry no less) released this week, 63-37 is pretty good to me.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

The price lubricates the purchases when demand for the product already exists. The price itself doesn't generate the demand. It's a Graffeo-ism to think that hardware LEADS software.

Agreed on the pricing front, but to be fair one key strategy of BDA is that Trojan hardware leads software. And it does seem to be working.

You are correct in that people will not go out of their way to buy hardware even if it's cheap if software is not there, but if it's a different story of the hardware is free.

Maybe that's why they are now trying to give away HD-DVD players....

enjoy
gandalf

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Do people honestly believe that right now there is some huge pent up demand for HDM players, and all people are waiting for is the price to hit $199 ($149/$99 or whatever)?

The price lubricates the purchases when demand for the product already exists. The price itself doesn't generate the demand. It's a Graffeo-ism to think that hardware LEADS software.

The demand for HDM is curtailed by the studio split, and the price of media. With full studio support and lower disc prices, the demand would be MUCH higher. Then, a great price point will make units fly off the shelf.

Gary

Hey, you just created a new word. You need to go to the urban dictionary website and list it.

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Agreed on the pricing front, but to be fair one key strategy of BDA is that Trojan hardware leads software. And it does seem to be working.

You are correct in that people will not go out of their way to buy hardware even if it's cheap if software is not there, but if it's a different story of the hardware is free.

Maybe that's why they are now trying to give away HD-DVD players....

enjoy
gandalf

Problem with that, seems to me, is the business model.

I do have one issue which is puzzling me. With the sales of PS3 humming along since July, I don't see a corresponding jump in BD sales which would be expected, if 20% of those PS3s were being effectively used as players.

20% is the figure generally accepted after all the attach-rate calculations...

[docjan_uk]

That's because the market as a whole is growing.
If there was a sudden uptick in PS3 sales, say with a looming pricecut... that could spur BD sales in the run up to Christmas and beyond... but again, don't assume HD DVD sales will just stay horizontal as the market increases in size.

[oldmike]

keep in mind PS3 sales are still small compared to the other gameing systems
and the movies post 300 have been lacking a gamers movie

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

I do have one issue which is puzzling me. With the sales of PS3 humming along since July, I don't see a corresponding jump in BD sales which would be expected, if 20% of those PS3s were being effectively used as players.

I think there are two distinct types of people who use PS3s as Blu-ray players:

- People who bought it specifically to use as a Blu-ray player. These people will steadily buy titles week in week out.

- People who bought it primarily as a games console, but will also buy the occasional Blu-ray disc. I think we only really see sales to these people when big titles like 300 come out. I suspect these people aren't contributing much to sales on a week by week basis, but may contribute a lot of "shock and awe" when a big day and date title comes out, I'll certainly be interested to see how Fantastic 4 Silver Surfer sells, as it may be a very popular title with this demographic.

[bryaaaant]

WTF happened to this thread..? Took me two just to find the figures..

on the other hand,

Do people honestly believe that right now there is some huge pent up demand for HDM players, and all people are waiting for is the price to hit $199 ($149/$99 or whatever)?

Actually there kinda is, but only for the PS3.


$399 soon. Bye-bye HD-DVD.

[m_tyson]

Originally Posted by NutsAboutPS3

I think there are two distinct types of people who use PS3s as Blu-ray players:

- People who bought it specifically to use as a Blu-ray player. These people will steadily buy titles week in week out.

- People who bought it primarily as a games console, but will also buy the occasional Blu-ray disc. I think we only really see sales to these people when big titles like 300 come out. I suspect these people aren't contributing much to sales on a week by week basis, but may contribute a lot of "shock and awe" when a big day and date title comes out, I'll certainly be interested to see how Fantastic 4 Silver Surfer sells, as it may be a very popular title with this demographic.

I rented the Talladega Blu-ray recently. If I had bought a PS3 without the background knowledge from various Internet forums, and that bundled movie was my first exposure to Blu-ray, I would have viewed the quality as marginally better than a DVD and not bothered pursuing Blu-ray. I suspect that a lot of PS3 owners initially wrote off Blu-ray, but are now starting to reconsider. The attachment rate should ramp up big time by the end of the year.

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by Sir Terrence

This is not about debate, it is about focus. With all of the great things happening in front, and behind the scenes( consistant sales leads and one dollar to heading it back to the topic), you are focusing on the BDA not playing tit for tat with the HD DVD PG. The HD DVD group has to do the things it does, and for bluray to succeed, it just doesn't have to do those same things.

The BDA does not have to pay any studio exclusively support it a dime. However, based on recent events, apparently the HD DVD PG does.

The HD DVD PG " $199 bluray killing cheap chinese player" is going to be released, but the retailers with the biggest impact on propagating and proliferating these players(Walmart and Target) will not be selling them in their stores. What better way to capatilize on the fact that you have more heavy hitting titles leading up to the heavy christmas shopping season, than by cutting the pipeline to the opponents "secret killing machine" player.

Universal and Paramount only have three titles that can compete with any weeks release of bluray titles. Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, and maybe Shrek the 3. Bluray has more than that from one bluray exclusive studio.

Now it didn't take me long to think up these positive things that Bluray has in its favor, so why with the BDA isn't doing a thing mumble jumble?

You need to realize that there are more things going on than you can see(and hear for that matter). So before you come to a judgement against the BDA, remember that it is based only on what you know, and not what is.

Okay, getting back to those Nielson figures, considering we didn't have but a ham and cheese sandwich(dry no less) released this week, 63-37 is pretty good to me.

Well stated. Let's get another week under our belt! I think this week's numbers ought to go up significantly. Hmm, I'm guessing 75%:25%.

[marzetta7]

Here are the releases for this week's numbers...

September 25, 2007
Black Book (Sony)
Gods and Generals (Warner)
Gothika (Warner)
Memoirs of a Geisha (Sony)
Tekkonkinkreet (Sony)
Underworld (Sony)
The Wild Bunch (Warner)
Wyatt Earp (Warner)

Hmm, I thought FF4 was in this week's numbers, so let me revise. It'll probably be 69:31....hahaha 69 dude!

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

Hmm, I thought FF4 was in this week's numbers, so let me revise. It'll probably be 69:31....hahaha 69 dude!

i'm fealing a little pessimistic, 65%