81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[phloyd]

You know, the success this week for HD DVD is purely that single title. In all other ways, HD DVD did not do so well.

300 ratio is 1.74:1
Marshall ratio is 1.93:1

Business as usual outside of Knocked Up.

It is pretty clear that good Day and Date exclusive titles are very important.

[dobyblue]

I think with FF2 out next week's numbers could be the first 80:20 week for Blu-ray so far this year.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by xmositox

That is a stretch. I don't think it will outsell 300. But that is my opinion and i could certainly be wrong.

If it did sell 100,000 how could Blu win the week if it averages less then 70K per week with no new releases???

Agree. Transformers will not sell that much in 1 week. 300 & Casino Royale didn't do that against a much larger install base.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Holy Sh!t

54:46!

66:34
61:39

Interesting that SI and YTD still did not move.

Everyones obsessed with weekly percentages rather than actual sales totals.

Next week could see three times as many movies sold but people will just say 'ah Blu-ray is 10-15 points better than last week', which gives you no idea about the big difference in sales.

[Beta-guy]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Holy Sh!t

54:46!

66:34
61:39

Interesting that SI and YTD still did not move.

I didn't see that coming, I keep an eye on productwars and BD was doing quite nicely, We've really gotta organize a Buy-a-thon for OCT 16 for real, if this is how we faired what got the these fnatasic movies this week, think what'll happen OCT 16...

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Holy Sh!t

54:46!

66:34
61:39

Interesting that SI and YTD still did not move.

Why would they move? You need fairly high volumes to dent those SI numbers at this point and even the YTD isn't going to shift a lot on 1 week's data. The YTD data is based now on 39 weeks of data and the delta between the YTD and the week is only 12 pts this week (66% blu v 54% blu for the week). If we were to assume that volume is roughly the same every week, you'd only get a 0.3% dip in the YTD figure based on this week. I wouldn't expect teh SI to budge at all given the delta is only 7 pts and the amount of data far greater.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

Found this at AVS, these are last weeks number( the week before Knocked Up came out) broken down into per unit sold-

Top sellers by SKU:

Troy: Director's Cut BD 3822
300 BD 3770
The Condemned 3015
We are Marshall HD 2363
We are Marshall BD 1992
300 HD 1876
PE BD 1694
PE HD 1332
Smallville: The Complete Sixth Season HD 1248
Casino Royale 1176
Troy: Director's Cut HD 1182
Batman Begins 925
Smallville: The Complete Sixth Season BD 652

Those were last weeks numbers.


Lets just assume that 300 did 4000 units this week, that means Knocked Up only sold 16k units. That is not impressive at all. Now do people seriously think that Transformers will beat Knocked Up by a ratio of 6:1. I don't think so. The Blu-ray lineup is litterly running on fumes and still winning, once the big titles start hitting its game over.

I'll agree with the bold. Once Spidey 3 hits it's going to be "game over, man" for HD-DVD.

Transformers will do at least what 300 numbers on HD-DVD did. I still think it goes over 100,000 on week 1. From what I've seen comedies are very rarely huge sellers on disc when compared to action flicks. So using Knocked Up as a comparison is like comparing apples and oranges.

[The Big Blue]

Sony might want to re-think the $44 list on Superbad.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by phloyd

You know, the success this week for HD DVD is purely that single title. In all other ways, HD DVD did not do so well.

300 ratio is 1.74:1
Marshall ratio is 1.93:1

Business as usual outside of Knocked Up.

It is pretty clear that good Day and Date exclusive titles are very important.

yup, and who has more, we do! just cause hd dvd rushed a bunch of movies out to get some numbers before the blu bombardment doesn't mean they're winning. picture this on d-day the Germans see the Allies coming by sea from miles away. They fire every thing they got and kill a couple hundred allies while the allies fire nothing and kill no germans, then when the boats hit the shore and the allies have their weapons fully loaded and the germans might have their own personaly pistols whaddya thinks gonna happen. its exactly what hd dvd is doing. knocked up came out shortly after POTC 3 and their is a 3 month gap between titles! transformers came out around the same time as superbad and their is a 2 month gap between titles.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Everyones obsessed with weekly percentages rather than actual sales totals.

Next week could see three times as many movies sold but people will just say 'ah Blu-ray is 10-15 points better than last week', which gives you no idea about the big difference in sales.

Yep. Next week will be big numbers for Blu which should more than make up for this week's gutter ball.

Edit: same with when Spidey 3 lands. It will more than make up for any losses that Blu will have suffered from Transformers. It's just that 1 week with Transformers being "unopposed" that will look bad on the Nielsen's weekly numbers.

[jangofett]

54:46 huh? At least transformers didn't move the numbers that much. Well, next week will be 60:40 bc of transformers again but after that we'll be kickin some behind again

[Blubaru]

I think it shows that the HD-DVD side had a lot more strength than we all have previously thought. The HD-DVD fud marketing is having an effect. I know HD-DVD players are vastly outselling Blu-ray player at my local B&M stores

I’d be highly surprised if Blu-ray gets over 70-75% again this year or if it will ever get over that mark again. Right now all of the momentum seems to be with the HD-DVD side and I don’t see any fox titles changing that. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see WB considering going HD exclusive in light of the recent HD-DVD momentum

It’s going to be very sad if Blu-ray loses this war.

[Jimbo976]

Originally Posted by jangofett

54:46 huh? At least transformers didn't move the numbers that much. Well, next week will be 60:40 bc of transformers again but after that we'll be kickin some behind again

Whathca talkin about? Transformers didn't move any numbers since it isn't out for 3 more weeks of the Nielsen numbers.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by jangofett

54:46 huh? At least transformers didn't move the numbers that much. Well, next week will be 60:40 bc of transformers again but after that we'll be kickin some behind again

transformers doesn't come out for another 10 days.

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by jangofett

54:46 huh? At least transformers didn't move the numbers that much. Well, next week will be 60:40 bc of transformers again but after that we'll be kickin some behind again

Transformers doesn't count until the actual week of release. Pre orders do not count on the rankings. They are only accounted for when they sold which would be the day they are released, in two weeks. That is going to be bad, I am afraid...

[jaymzbo]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

buy week on oct. 16th guys? i am officially delaying my halloween and surf's up purchases until then.

The idea got tossed around, albeit not too much buzz maybe due to fact that there was one just in Spetember....

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...hlight=october

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

I’d be highly surprised if Blu-ray gets over 70-75% again this year or if it will ever get over that mark again.

Dude are you kidding me? They will get over 70% next week and the week after that.

Then there will be one drop when TF is in the numbers, but then Spidey 3 hits and they will get over 80%. They will also get over 80% when Die Hard 4 comes out and Pirates 3.

[reellis]

On a good note from this week's numbers We Are Marshall seems to have outsold it's hd-dvd counterpart by a large number. This was one thing that bothered me about last weeks numbers which seems to have been remedied.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

Dude are you kidding me? They will get over 70% next week and the week after that.

Then there will be one drop when TF is in the numbers, but then Spidey 3 hits and they will get over 80%. They will also get over 80% when Die Hard 4 comes out and Pirates 3.

We shall see.

Until now Blu-ray hasn’t had any real competition. There are a lot of stupid people buying into HD-DVD now. I hope you’re right but I think all of those new buyers will probably help offset those numbers by a bit.

Blu-ray will win for sure but I don’t think it’s going to win by as much as you think it is.

Like I said before, I hope you’re right.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

I think it shows that the HD-DVD side had a lot more strength than we all have previously thought. The HD-DVD fud marketing is having an effect. I know HD-DVD players are vastly outselling Blu-ray player at my local B&M stores

I’d be highly surprised if Blu-ray gets over 70-75% again this year or if it will ever get over that mark again. Right now all of the momentum seems to be with the HD-DVD side and I don’t see any fox titles changing that. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see WB considering going HD exclusive in light of the recent HD-DVD momentum

It’s going to be very sad if Blu-ray loses this war.

lol, forgive me when I quote you next week when BR is 70% or more.

You have to realize you have a $130million hit movie (Knocked Up) + $70 million (Next) movie against......nothing for BR. How people could have been guessed BR would do 60% or more was really not looking at the facts.

The facts are BR has not had a big boxoffice title for over a month (since Wild Hogs) and HD has had two (BoG and now KU). The fact that HD can't overtake BR with NOTHING is a statement in itself.

Look at the whole month of Oct. This week there is NOTHING going against FF4 2 and then next week which do you think will sell more.....Evan Almighty or 28 Weeks Later? Not to mention the other titles like Surfs Up or Reign Over Me. PS3 just got a price cut in Europe.....it just happens to hit the same week Transformers will be released. You really think that will not effect BR sales at all that week?