I am so sick of the word 'FUD'. It's like the geek's version of the Paris Hilton

[dobyblue]

Where does this 10% attach rate figure come from?

Originally Posted by jayselle

I said it was a deal breaker FOR ME. I didn't say for everyone. There are a lot of home theater enthusiast with setups like mine who I know it's a deal breaker for as well.

Rubbish!

[theknub]

or even better, figure out my 25%

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

Where does this 10% attach rate figure come from?


Rubbish!

10% is an arbitrary number based off past history. The pre-orders have sold very well according to small online business owners. Amazon has reported the add-on consistently as one of its top five sellers and even peaking at number one for awhile.

The same applies to the PS3 BD attach rate. What percentage will be actually be used to play blu-ray discs? I would imagine it will be slightly higher. Somewhere around 10%-20%.

I am not sure what the rubbish comment is. The PS3 cannot function as a BD player for me because it won't integrate in to my existing setup. Judging from comments on AVS I am not alone. Regardless, typically game consoles don't make high end media players.

[theknub]

we've had two examples of consoles being media players. in one case, it was a solid player for a while until better players came out (ps2). in the other, it has been pretty dodgy.

[Kenshiro]

Originally Posted by jayselle

10% is an arbitrary number based off past history.

While that number is arbitrary, the 10 million 360's by year end has already been shot down by microsoft themselves. They just recently sold 6 mil, and now there is Wii sitting there at $250. The Wii is really going to hurt 360 sales this holiday season.... MS is not getting anywhere near 10 million 360's sold by years end.

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by Kenshiro

While that number is arbitrary, the 10 million 360's by year end has already been shot down by microsoft themselves. They just recently sold 6 mil, and now there is Wii sitting there at $250. The Wii is really going to hurt 360 sales this holiday season.... MS is not getting anywhere near 10 million 360's sold by years end.

I agree; much the same there won't be near 1 million PS3's by the end of the year.

I did state I thought 8 million was possible. The 6 million number was a month ago. They can sell 2 million units in three months especially since it's holiday season. I don't see the Wii hurting PS3 or 360 sales. They are very different types of gaming systems.

[partridge]

PS3 is a direct competitor for Xbox360. The Wii is arguably aimed at a different market, but there are plenty of multi format titles appearing on all three consoles.

I don't expect MS to sell 10 million by year end. I look forward to their next press release explaining why they missed that target

Sony sales? Well they'll sell every console they can get into the shops for the next few months, but it all depends on how production goes. They remain confident that they'll hit 6 million by end of March 2007, but time will tell.

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by Kenshiro

While that number is arbitrary, the 10 million 360's by year end has already been shot down by microsoft themselves. They just recently sold 6 mil, and now there is Wii sitting there at $250. The Wii is really going to hurt 360 sales this holiday season.... MS is not getting anywhere near 10 million 360's sold by years end.

Microsoft said 6 million SHIPPED as of now. They have 4.5 Million sold. Some people, such as myself, own 2 360s. Their market hold is nothing. People are talking about how "well" the addon is selling, but that robert guy on avs has a whopping, earth shattering 500 of them and has plenty left in stock, same with the A2. Theres a few hardcore out there buying them, but i'd say less then 1% will buy the hd-dvd addon. Whoever buys one right away is pretty much most of the purchases they'll be seeing. No one is mentioning that only the INITIAL run of the addons have King Kong with it, and that they're already sold out. The Amazon bundle does not include king kong anymore. So much for a packin. NO ADDON IN THE HISTORY OF VIDEO GAMES HAS SUCCEEDED. If its not built in, ITS USELESS.

[partridge]

And now that MS is offering a movie download service, why bother with it at all?

Seems MS is more interested in ticking feature boxes and competing with every other media supplier out there, when they should be concentrating on selling the console with decent, mass appeal games!

So many fingers in so many pies, sooner or later they're gonna get burned.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by jayselle

Judging from comments on AVS I am not alone.

Okie dokie then....now your posts make sense.

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Microsoft said 6 million SHIPPED as of now. They have 4.5 Million sold. Some people, such as myself, own 2 360s. Their market hold is nothing. People are talking about how "well" the addon is selling, but that robert guy on avs has a whopping, earth shattering 500 of them and has plenty left in stock, same with the A2. Theres a few hardcore out there buying them, but i'd say less then 1% will buy the hd-dvd addon. Whoever buys one right away is pretty much most of the purchases they'll be seeing. No one is mentioning that only the INITIAL run of the addons have King Kong with it, and that they're already sold out. The Amazon bundle does not include king kong anymore. So much for a packin. NO ADDON IN THE HISTORY OF VIDEO GAMES HAS SUCCEEDED. If its not built in, ITS USELESS.

I would imagine it will be built in in the next run of 360's with HDMI. These are things they can add without having to do a whole new console. The add-on is to merely keep the 360 up to par and give folks a chance to try HD-DVD without spending $500 on a stand alone player.

I still contend that the percentage of people buying the add-on will be around the same number of people buying the PS3 for BD.

I know several co-workers with 360's who are just gong to buy the add-on when it hits stores rather than try to mess with obtaining a PS3.

[Jazar]

I hate this thread more then I hate FUD.

This argument is the crux of all HD DVD vs. Blu-ray arguments right now:

1) PS3 will light a fire under Blu-ray and cause massive sales for all BD titles. Having a BD player integrated in every PS3 makes an insaine posibility for the BD market. Mass production of the PS3 & game titles will leader to improved production for BD hardware (systems and discs) which will lead to more affordable prices all around. Xbox's addon however will not sell a significant amount given: a) addon's generally don't sell well. b) unit does not have an HDMI or 5ch analog audio out making it not as attractive as a full HD DVD unit. Finally Universal will see the massive install base buying BDs and will release titles for BD dealing the final blow to HD DVD.

2) The Xbox 360's HD DVD addon will catapult HD DVD units and title purchasers into the stratosphere as every addon sold is a guaranteed HD DVD buyer. The low cost ($200) makes it the cheapest HD player that can be readily available this year. Sellouts in Amazon have shown the demand is high and will continue to reamin high through the year for the holiday season. PS3 however will be extremely limited and purchased only by gamers who are NOT the same as HD movie enthusiasts and will not be interested in BD movies but the PS3 games this year. BD sales will continue to pale in comparison to HD DVD if not more so and soon Liongate followed by Disney then Fox and ultimately Sony will be forced to concede and support HD DVD killing the BD media.

Did I get that right? Problem is: either scenario is probable and you really can't even get close to proving one way or the other until next month and even then it'll probably be too early to tell. I'm just tired of hearing these two arguments back and forth, back and forth ad infinitum.

[partridge]

Originally Posted by jayselle

I still contend that the percentage of people buying the add-on will be around the same number of people buying the PS3 for BD.

What? This is total nonsense! You're now claiming that the number of 360 add-on buyers will be the same as those that buy a PS3 purely as a blu-ray player?

But EVERYONE with a PS3 is a potential blu-ray movie consumer. You can't just slice up PS3 buyers into neat groups that make the 360 add-on sales look good!

Face facts mate, every single PlayStation3 sold is a blu-ray player installed. If, as I expect, the vast majority of these PS3's are hooked up to HDtv's (as 360's were when they went on sale) then I fully expect over 90% to pick up at least one blu-ray movie, in fact given the price of BD movies, I'd be surprised if every owner didn't pick one up.

You cannot seriously argue that over 90% of 360 owners will be buying this add on? And as MS are now offering HD movie rentals by download to your 360, why bother with it at all? By the end of the month you will be able to rent HD movies and buy tv programmes!! All you need is the harddrive.

Lol. It was MS who berated Sony for making the PS3 a movie player, claiming that gamers only want a game console... What happened to that line of thought MS? They are suddenly trying to make the 360 all things to all men, which is a huge turn around from where they stood at launch. It reeks of a company desperately trying to find novel ways to keep their console in the public eye. Well the public eye is about to head toward Sony and Nintendo.

You've had your one year head start MS, and you blew it.

[phranctoast]

I'm leaning towards argument #1. It seems a lot more realistic.

Noone has added that MS is losing money on the hardware (hddvd add on) that will do absolutely nothing for them...at all......ever. They make no money on studios making money off hd dvd discs.

So do you really think MS would produce a bunch of systems that will lose them money and never make it back.ever? I believe they might have manufactured 10,000 tops. Jayselles 10% of millions is really wishful thinking for the hddvd format.

[Jazar]

Originally Posted by phranctoast

I'm leaning towards argument #1. It seems a lot more realistic.

Personally I agree. That's why I'm posting in the Blu-ray forum and not the HD DVD forum. I can't wait till the end of this year when the dust has settled.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by phranctoast

I'm leaning towards argument #1. It seems a lot more realistic.

Way more realistic.

Noone has added that MS is losing money on the hardware (hddvd add on) that will do absolutely nothing for them...at all......ever.

Everyone except Nintendo loses money on hardware. (Videogame consoles)

They make no money on studios making money off hd dvd discs.

True.

So do you really think MS would produce a bunch of systems that will lose them money and never make it back.ever? I believe they might have manufactured 10,000 tops.

Jayselles 10% of millions is really wishful thinking for the hddvd format.

Never happen.

[partridge]

And this is perhaps why MS are launching an online system. They've done the deals with the studio's and they take a percentage of the takings. What do they get from the HD-DVD add on? A dig at the PS3, nothing more.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by partridge

What? This is total nonsense! You're now claiming that the number of 360 add-on buyers will be the same as those that buy a PS3 purely as a blu-ray player?

Pretty incredulous statement isn't it?

[jayselle]

Originally Posted by partridge

What? This is total nonsense! You're now claiming that the number of 360 add-on buyers will be the same as those that buy a PS3 purely as a blu-ray player?

I said percentage. I did state earlier I think the percentage of PS3 used as BD players would be 10%-20% while 360 will be around 10% for HD-DVD.

But EVERYONE with a PS3 is a potentia blu-ray movie consumer. You can't just slice up PS3 buyers into neat groups that make the 360 add-on sales look good!

Face facts mate, every single PlayStation3 sold is a blu-ray player installed. If, as I expect, the vast majority of these PS3's are hooked up to HDtv's (as 360's were when they went on sale) then I fully expect over 90% to pick up at least one blu-ray movie, in fact given the price of BD movies, I'd be surprised if every owner didn't pick one up.

BD and HD-DVD movies are still quite a bit more than DVD's. The HD versions will only be bought unless there is something connected to the PS3 to fully realize it's potential. There will be a small amount of "fanboys" who will buy the BD movies and hook up to there 19" TV using composite to just say they have BD.

You cannot seriously argue that over 90% of 360 owners will be buying this add on? And as MS are now offering HD movie rentals by download to your 360, why bother with it at all? By the end of the month you will be able to rent HD movies and buy tv programmes!! All you need is the harddrive.

I am not arguing that. I said 10%. The HD movies Xbox live is offering are not the same quality. The 360 only has a 20GB HDD.

Lol. It was MS who berated Sony for making the PS3 a movie player, claiming that gamers only want a game console... What happened to that line of thought MS? They are suddenly trying to make the 360 all things to all men, which is a huge turn around from where they stood at launch. It reeks of a company desperately trying to find novel ways to keep their console in the public eye. Well the public eye is about to head toward Sony and Nintendo.

You've had your one year head start MS, and you blew it.

I don't agree. I would say Sony with all there delays has been blowing it.

Had Sony had QA of initial BD movie releases, the PS3 launched, and a decent BD affordable player released 6-8 months ago then BD would of surged ahead easily.

The reality is that Sony allowed the PS3 launch to be a nightmare. They allowed the initial BD movie releases to be poor transfers. Samsung offered a $1000 player that couldn't compare to the Toshiba's $500.

Cheaper players, better transfers, and more titles are the reason HD-DVD is ahead right now.

[Josh]

This thread has become less about videogames, and more of a versus thread. Please continue his discussion in the "unofficial" versus thread:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=3306

Closing.