360 add on may be good afer all.

[BTBuck1]

Today, bored i was playing with my 360 and checking out the dashboard and new features. I decided to go to the Windows media HD site and download some HD windows media files and burn them onto a disc to see how they would look. I got about 8 or 9 clips on a SL DVD and man, it looks really good. I think the HDDVD should be ok afer seeing this. I wouldn't understand if it doesn't look like what I saw today.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Today, bored i was playing with my 360 and checking out the dashboard and new features. I decided to go to the Windows media HD site and download some HD windows media files and burn them onto a disc to see how they would look. I got about 8 or 9 clips on a SL DVD and man, it looks really good. I think the HDDVD should be ok afer seeing this. I wouldn't understand if it doesn't look like what I saw today.

If you already own a 360, you could do worse with 200 beans.

[shido]

I'd seriously consider getting the add-on, if there were really some titles I needed on HD-DVD. Right now, I'd only be missing Universal titles if I go exclusively with Blu-ray, so I'm just gonna wait and see if Universal doesn't jump to being neutral by the end of 2007. In the meantime, DVD for Universal will suffice for me I guess.

[PurpleAardvark]

Trust me if you are going to get the add on for the xbox360 what until 3 months after it has been released. You are going to see some bugs in the thing. If you want me to back my statement up then think about this. The first wave of any xbox product has had problems, usally because they are rushed to the market. If you owned one of the first xboxs or 360 you would know this first hand.
I would personally let the AVS HD fanboys be the first test monkeys, they have earned that one.

[theknub]

test monkeys? is that a new species of animal?

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Personally, I care too much about my sound to even think about the add-on drive.

[vick vega]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Today, bored i was playing with my 360 and checking out the dashboard and new features. I decided to go to the Windows media HD site and download some HD windows media files and burn them onto a disc to see how they would look. I got about 8 or 9 clips on a SL DVD and man, it looks really good. I think the HDDVD should be ok afer seeing this. I wouldn't understand if it doesn't look like what I saw today.

Can you provide a link to some sites that I can download then burn to test out on my 360?
Is this the site you were talking about? http://www.microsoft.com/windows/win...tshowcase.aspx

[PurpleAardvark]

Originally Posted by theknub

test monkeys? is that a new species of animal?

Yes AVS is its own very new "specail" species of animal.

[JTK]

Someone help me understand this "logic":


I literally see people arguing in the same breath something like this:

"Not many people who buy PS3's will buy that many BD movies/or care" <- or something to that effect, but in the same instance, they will say:

"This Xbox 360 HD-DVD add on is selling/going to sell like hotcakes. A lot of PS3 buyers don't even own HDTV's. "

^^ There's a decent amount of 360 owners that I've seen that somehow don't own HDTVs, but do people really think the vast majority of PS3 buyers that are going to pay upwards of $500-$600 for this thing aren't HDTV owners?

I can't tell you how many people I've run into over the past two years, on and off the Internet, who had the PS3 circled on their calendars as the day they would buy their first HDTVs, if they hadn't already.





Obviously you have at least one MS employee spinning and FUD-ding about attach rates and people lapping that up like Gospel fact, like they always do, but honestly, how can you have it both ways?


Either gamers are going to care about HD movies or they are not.


That being said, I just don't see this thing moving 400,000-500,000 units in a handful of months like the PS3 is going to off of nothing else but "Tickle Me Elmo" hype.

Does anyone REALLY expect the 360 HD-DVD add on to break anywhere close to big numbers like that?

I just don't see it. How long, realistically, will it take MS to SELL even 100,000 of these things, if ever?


It may do pretty well for itself, but I just don't see how this thing can really be considered the "Ps3 equalizer" or "cancelling out the PS3" regardless of how much I try to spin Amazon sales figures and the rest of it.

Do you all get it?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JTK

Obviously you have at least one MS employee spinning and FUD-ding about attach rates and people lapping that up like Gospel fact, like they always do, but honestly, how can you have it both ways?


Either gamers are going to care about HD movies or they are not.

It is, of course, the difference between guaranteed usage (add-on) and potential usage (PS/3).

I've seen one notable fanboy claim that 30% of Xbox 360 owners will buy the add-on, while only 5% of PS/3 users will watch BD movies on it. Clearly, that is bizarro world thinking. Basically, those types are ranting "I hate Sony" and then throwing out insane numbers that would show the world agrees with their zeoltry.

The basic demographic of the Xbox 360 and PS/3 are the same. Therefore, without considering any other factors, you would think that interest, HDTV ownership, etc. would be identical in the two camps. Now the factors to consider:

- The Xbox 360 add-on requires a new purchase for HD disc usage. The PS/3 does not.

- Many Xbox 360 owners will be buying a PS/3 too. So, unless they want to get into both formats, that means all those people have already bought one HD movie disc player.

- The Xbox 360 is notoriously loud. I can't tell you how many times I've read sentences like "I love my Xbox 360, but I would never use it as a home theater device. It's too damn loud".

We have reports the PS/3 much, much quieter. If that is true, that is a major factor.

- The same studio support issues exist for the Xbox 360 people to consider.

What is never considered by the anti-Sony types is that those 95% represent a direct target, and delirously sought after demographic, for marketting. Some percentage can be convinced to get and HDTV for gaming and then consider BD movies. And then, at some future point, get a standalone player.

As for sales. I think the add-on will do quite well: 100-200K. At a conservative 5% PS/3 usage, that means 2-4 million PS/3 sales are required to level the usage.

But, the other potential is if the add-on can be hacked for PC use. At that time I think it is potentially a huge win for HD DVD (I will get one, guaranteed).

But, also, in the last stroke of irony, we realize that the PS/3 has USB ports.

Gary

[JTK]

^^ Great post!


Maybe it's different this time, but in the history of console videogaming, any kind of add on has usually been an abysmal failure: Genesis 32X, Sega CD, a lot of Nintendo's peripherals, etc. etc.


For the sake of HD adoption, I'm certainly not rooting against the thing, but I just don't see it hitting anywhere close to PS3 like numbers...ever.

Certainly not anytime for the forseeable future, at least.

100,000-200,000? I don't know. I have a hard time seeing those kinds of numbers, at least anytime real soon.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by vick vega

Can you provide a link to some sites that I can download then burn to test out on my 360?
Is this the site you were talking about? http://www.microsoft.com/windows/win...tshowcase.aspx

yes thats where I got them.

[ProvenFlipper]

Originally Posted by JTK

Maybe it's different this time, but in the history of console videogaming, any kind of add on has usually been an abysmal failure: Genesis 32X, Sega CD, a lot of Nintendo's peripherals, etc. etc.

This is the key point... Add-ons historically don't do well at all, and I highly doubt that the 360 add-on will change that. Outside of AVS, I don't think there is much hype/knowledge on the 360 add-on. I've never heard any customers talking about the 360 add-on at Best Buy, just everyday I hear people talking about how they will get a PS3 to watch BD movies until prices of standalones drop.

[theknub]

PF and Brian give us an insight to the consumers mind simply because they work with them all day. the rest of us can speculate, but have no real clue what the normal consumer has in their head. even the guys wtih high end shops don't know because they don't have an avg consumer in there.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JTK

Maybe it's different this time, but in the history of console videogaming, any kind of add on has usually been an abysmal failure: Genesis 32X, Sega CD, a lot of Nintendo's peripherals, etc. etc.

It goes both ways. In the history of console videogaming, only (perhaps) the Japanese have made any serious use of the box as a movie disc player.

We are expecting the PS/3 to be different because of its capabilities.

Originally Posted by JTK

For the sake of HD adoption, I'm certainly not rooting against the thing, but I just don't see it hitting anywhere close to PS3 like numbers...ever.

PS/3 unit numbers? Not even close, after after about 5 minutes of PS/3 release . But, as I said, what matters for BD movies is whether there are comparable usage numbers.

Another factor:

- PS/3 as a BD player. A certain number of people are thinking of the PS/3 as a cheap entry point into BD, even if they aren't all that interested in the gaming.

It's possible that given comparable performance to the Toshiba HD DVD players (i.e. not all that great, but adequate) the PS/3 will get sales where many people wouldn't expected.

I know the HD DVD dealer Value Electronics is now pushing XBox 360 and add-ons. So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Sony retailers could start selling PS/3 as BD players.

Gary

[ProvenFlipper]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I know the HD DVD dealer Value Electronics is now pushing XBox 360 and add-ons. So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Sony retailers could start selling PS/3 as BD players.

Gary

I know for sure when PS3 becomes relatively easy to come by, I will mention it as a BD player in my sales. I will show people the standalone eqiupment first then if they think it's too expensive... PS3 here we come.

On the flipside, I can already see what is going to happen if the X360 is offered as a solution... Husband and wife speaking here...

Husband: "You mean I have to buy both of those pieces to watch the movie?
Me: Yes sir, both of them will be necessary.
Wife: "Does it come in any other color, because the white doesn't match"
Me: No, only in the white so far.
Husband and Wife: We'll just take the PS3...

Keep in mind too... people are falling in the hype/marketing behind 1080p sets and HDMI, both of which X360 fails to deliver to most customers.

[ProvenFlipper]

http://www.ebgames.com/ReadReviews.a...duct_id=802558

Look at all of the FUD and misinformation that has reached these poor consumers...

[theknub]

i actually felt sick after reading about 10 comments

[JTK]

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

http://www.ebgames.com/ReadReviews.a...duct_id=802558

Look at all of the FUD and misinformation that has reached these poor consumers...

Those have always been notorious and right down there with Gamefaqs.com forums.

That makes Amazon's user reviews look like Shakespeare and contrast.

You really can't go much lower than that dreck. It's even more pointless to allow people to write in about stuff before it's even released.

[BTBuck1]

this guy brings up an excellent point from AVS forums:

Originally Posted by Jeff Lampert

I'm an HD DVD fan, but I can think of one issue that makes the poll suspect, which favors Blu-ray. People voting on a poll that they will buy the add-on is very easy. Pulling out the credit card or cash can be much more difficult for some of those voters. Blu-ray, OTOH, is already there so there is no additional barrier preventing an owner from getting on board (other than buying discs).

original thread:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=747786