Predicted attach rates for A2 customers?

[bazie]

So all the lemmings that bought in a 100 bucks.....what do you think the attach rate is going to be.

Formally lets define it as the number of HDDVD's they will buy per month on average.

My guess is 1 or 2 in the first couple weeks. Like transfomers or something. But AFTER that, i would say on average they might get a disk every like several months.

Say (and this is generous I think) 5 HDDVD's a year.

So with 50000 A2's sold at this price (this is the rumous I have heard, who knows if it is true or just FUD...but that might be 50k including the 200 dollars players at CC, amazon etc. ) that means a grand total of 5*50,000 =250,000 disks.

So basically one movie like pirates 3 for one week could cancel the effect of this sale for an entire year.

Anyways, any thoughts on my numbers?

[jorg]

lol maybe zero cuz thell just rent lmao

[richard lichtenfelt]

Did you mean 5*50,000? 8*50,000 would=400,000.

[Sy-]

Also a lot of these $99 A2 customers already have a HD-DVD player at home and the one the purchased will be a second player for the bedroom and such. So those that are buying a second player won't necessairly be buying more videos that they would have originally.

[Trebar]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Did you mean 5*50,000? 8*50,000 would=400,000.

Funny how the numbers add up eh? That's a big boost but not if Blu keeps selling also. This is just catch up. Toshiba will have to do something else down the road to stay in the game.

If it were about 150k units and 12 per year then blu would have to worry about several studios going neutral after the holidays.

[bazie]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Did you mean 5*50,000? 8*50,000 would=400,000.

err yes. I initially guessed 8 then changed it to 5 cause i thought it was too high. I changed the rest of the numbers but forgot that one

[Pestilence]

I really don't think this sale will make a significant change in the current attach rates. I'm sure that not everyone knew about this sale and for the few who did know about it and missed out on it they'd probably just end up waiting it out until the next firesale in hopes of getting an even better deal from Toshiba. If they only knew that if they'd just wait a few months I'm sure they could find the same model for $50 bux, $25 at a pawn shop at the cheapest.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Sy-

Also a lot of these $99 A2 customers already have a HD-DVD player at home and the one the purchased will be a second player for the bedroom and such. So those that are buying a second player won't necessairly be buying more videos that they would have originally.

You hit the nail squarely on the head.

[richard lichtenfelt]

I'd like to know how many PS3's will be sold over the holidays.

[Switched2BD]

Originally Posted by Sy-

Also a lot of these $99 A2 customers already have a HD-DVD player at home and the one the purchased will be a second player for the bedroom and such. So those that are buying a second player won't necessairly be buying more videos that they would have originally.

Originally Posted by Slapper

You hit the nail squarely on the head.

x2

[Intamin]

Don't forget, someone who may have been following blu and dud sees this sales, jumps in, buys his dud, and thinks, I just saved 400 bucks over blu, now I can spend it on movies. That's the type of person I see shopping at Wal-mart, one who uses that kind of logic. On the other hand, they could be completely clueless as to what they just purchased and be like oh I have a dud player?

[ProvenFlipper]

You have to remember, the type of person that is snatching this player up at this point in time because it is $99, isn't going to drop $25-$30 on a movie when the DVD is sitting next to it at $13.

[westend]

There is now over 600 of them on sale on Ebay.

[richard lichtenfelt]

Originally Posted by Intamin

Don't forget, someone who may have been following blu and dud sees this sales, jumps in, buys his dud, and thinks, I just saved 400 bucks over blu

Actually you could get a PS3 instead for $300 more that has built in wi-fi, internet browsing, next-gen gaming, free online play, loads the movies at almost instantaneous speed as opposed to anti-light speed for the Toshiba on some movies, and it comes with Spiderman 3.

[WickyWoo]

From what I've seen on various forums, the attach rate is positively dismal

Everyone is buying them as "future proof" DVD players.

[jorg]

lol consumer mite by confused is it an high end upconverter

[Twism]

I just read a post on AVS Forum where there were 700 Toshiba HD-DVD players on EBAY and now 744 an hour later. Looks like alot of people are looking to make good money off. Walmart customer service sure is gonna have a fun time in January once warner goes blu with all the returns they get.

[Mote]

I just have a question...are the A2's discontinued? I just came from Best Buy and they were sold out. There was a sign saying that they would not continue to carry the model.

[Sy-]

Originally Posted by Mote

I just have a question...are the A2's discontinued? I just came from Best Buy and they were sold out. There was a sign saying that they would not continue to carry the model.

The newer A3 is just as featureless as the A2 so they will probably only carry that one!

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

I'd like to know how many PS3's will be sold over the holidays.

For the US I would say that if Sony can sell one million in November and December combined, that would be very good given how much slower they have been selling, even considering that they should pick up near the end of years. And if they can do that and those have an effective 20% rate (seems to be in the ballpark for PS3s so far), that would be another 200k effective players.

I trash some on the HD DVD side for certain comments about attach rates, like ignorant statements along the lines of the format with the best attach rates being the one doing the best. If any side should understand that a device with lower attach rates can have a big impact by having enough of them out there, it should be the Blu-ray side. So, I hope the conversations about attach rates here will be more intelligent than from certain HD DVD fans. They matter, but not in the ways some people think they do. Toshiba probably understands that these lower prices for players and including free discs are likely to lower attach rates a little bit, but increase the number of discs sold. Since number of discs sold is the much more important figure, they are willing to do things that lower attach rates.

But these sales from Toshiba still need to be countered to some degree by the Blu-ray camp even if they have lower attach rates than HD DVD has been used to or than Blu-ray gets from their standalone owners (PS3 owners have lower attach rates as a group). Even if those new owners all rented it would put some pressure on Blockbuster to go neutral. And Blockbuster leaning much more toward Blu-ray has been one of the advantages Blu-ray has held when selling players. I think we are best off realizing that these player sales by Toshiba do matter, but there are things the Blu-ray camp can do to effectively counter them.

--Darin