81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Elandyll]

That'd be nice to see Sony release a kick butt new 1.1 player at $399 (or ideally $349 MSRP), and them to place the BDS 300, identified as 1.0, at $249.

Wouldn't sell 90k units in three days, because let's be honest, people who bought the $98 player bought it because it was cheap (and likely as a 2nd unit or upscaling DVD player, thus not increasing particularly the software sales), but they would still sell a whole lot.

[stockstar1138]

im sorry, where is this 90k number coming from for toshiba? did they have a press release. i mean the ps3 sells 50k on a good week and thats from ppl buying both a game console and a blu-ray player, so what makes anybody think toshiba doubled this number. in my small town, 1 hd dvd player sold. Maybe in LA and Miami they're sold out, but in small town wal-marts 3 sold per store max. and small town walmarts make up the majority of this countries wal-marts.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

im sorry, where is this 90k number coming from for toshiba? did they have a press release. i mean the ps3 sells 50k on a good week and thats from ppl buying both a game console and a blu-ray player, so what makes anybody think toshiba doubled this number. in my small town, 1 hd dvd player sold. Maybe in LA and Miami they're sold out, but in small town wal-marts 3 sold per store max. and small town walmarts make up the majority of this countries wal-marts.

Regardless of whether the number is legit or not, it won't matter if the newly bought players don't translate into new disc sales and/or eat into BDs software lead...

[blu2]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

im sorry, where is this 90k number coming from for toshiba? did they have a press release. i mean the ps3 sells 50k on a good week and thats from ppl buying both a game console and a blu-ray player, so what makes anybody think toshiba doubled this number. in my small town, 1 hd dvd player sold. Maybe in LA and Miami they're sold out, but in small town wal-marts 3 sold per store max. and small town walmarts make up the majority of this countries wal-marts.

Here's the article on the 90K number:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6498141.html

This is Walmart, Circuit City, Best Buy, etc.

That's a significant bump up in a few days.

Last I heard, I think the number of HD DVD standalones was somewhere around 400-500K, so if so, that's a 20+% increase in a few days.

Time will tell on the media sales.

[dominica]

Originally Posted by Esox50

Regardless of whether the number is legit or not, it won't matter if the newly bought players don't translate into new disc sales and/or eat into BDs software lead...

These numbers are great. However, what I noticed and read on many internet forums/chat is present HD-DVD users got a second player for home or XBox 360 users got a second one as a replacement for the external drive. Thats allot of sold, but some will not lead to sales since it is a second player or a player that will be opened on x-mas day. Good sale but not all will lead to buying disc!

[BillCable]

Were any of the $99 stores giving away any movies along with the players (similar to Heroes with the 360 add-on)? If any were including movies that were scanned, that could make a big dent in Spidey's numbers.

[mykevermin]

With any luck, there goes the attach ratio argument. Folks buying $98 players surely aren't buying $35 movies, at least not en masse.

[L or S of Perfect?]

Wow. The rat is at #3 on amazon.


IMO SM trilogy & SM3 probably didn't sell so much. I'm hoping to be proved wrong.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by mykevermin

With any luck, there goes the attach ratio argument. Folks buying $98 players surely aren't buying $35 movies, at least not en masse.

There never was a valid attach rate argument anyway, just misleading statements from the HD DVD camp.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

That was more entertaining than a party at Quagmire's.
Lets sum this all up: N/VS is accepted as the standard by everyone except for Flux88mph. It is not accurate to an exact number.
Flux likes to attack the validity of the jobs held by peoples kids.
His wife works in Hollywood in a hypothetical sort of way from Texas, except sometimes she uses a form of transportation that employs flying machines and logistical hubs.
The Shrike is looking for guidance from a power greater than he, but came to the conclusion that Flux is a false god.
Nothing is perfect.

What a perfect summary. You just made my day.

enjoy
gandalf

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Flux88MPH

I’ve addressed each rational question with an answer. Your rambling sarcastic insults were ignored for a reason. I’m not going to repeat the same thing over and over. I also don’t need an “Insider” tag to feel good about myself and don’t plan on name dropping (as if that really means anything anyway). I was simply asked how I know about Nielsen so I vaguely explained how. I don’t have to prove anything to you based on my comments about Nielsen numbers. Based on your behavior and juvenile attitude I find it very funny that you go around calling people “trolls”.

You're not a troll, just misinformed.

Media is not media. The DVD numbers cover the majority of discs sold because these data are collected at ratailers. The TV ratings are akin to pre-election polls where they take a very small sample and try to estimate the entire population. The criticism on the TV ratings method are valid, not because they are biased but mostly because they are easily influenced (due to the relatively small size of samples) and also because of peoples consciousness of being "in the sample" affecting their viewing habits.

An equivalent criticism of their DVD numbers would be, for instance, how Disney and Sony may have been able to pull out a "win" on TF week by concentrating their BOGO efforts on Nielsen-reporting retailers. Or, how HD-DVD will probably dampen the Spider-Man 3 week's Blu-ray win margin by offering some free movies bundled at the retailer so they will count (if they are bundled by the manufacturer like PS3 40GB + SM3, or they are mail-in offers, they won't count).

Or, how passionate supporters on both sides are making conscious decisions to purchase movies on Nielsen-reporting locations. The last point is a double-edged sword for Nielsen, by the way -- this will make them easier to collect statistics, but can also affect the demographical makeups of their customers to some extent (for instance, it skews the data even more towards the early adopter/tech savvy crowd, which it probably does already due to Wal*Mart not being part of their pool).

In short, I don't think Nielsen is perfect but they are not biased, we just need to be careful when we evaluate the numbers to understand how they can be manipulated. But I'm clearly rambling. Now back to our regularly scheduled predictions.

enjoy
gandalf

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by BillCable

Were any of the $99 stores giving away any movies along with the players (similar to Heroes with the 360 add-on)? If any were including movies that were scanned, that could make a big dent in Spidey's numbers.

I think some stores had that -- at Best Buy, it was supposed to be 2 or 3 free for online only but some people managed to get the stores to match that offer.

Or something like that. I actually went to AVS's HD-DVD player section. (Oh, the horror!) If anyone has more info, I'd very much like to see it.

I'm having a very hard time making a prediction because of this. I'm thinking probably 150k for SM3 + trilogy, plus the regular 90k + 20k of Meet the Robinsons etc. leftover sales for 260k for BD. The HD-DVD numbers will be something like the regular 60k + 10k of TF leftover sales + whatever gets scanned with the firesale players.

The numbers can be anywhere between 60:40 (assuming 100k giveaways) to 78:22 (assuming no giveaways). This is a handicapper's nightmare (and a valid criticism of Nielsen IMO, how they can be manipulated by manufacturers).

enjoy
gandalf

[Flux88MPH]

Originally Posted by gand41f

You're not a troll, just misinformed.

Media is not media. The DVD numbers cover the majority of discs sold because these data are collected at ratailers. The TV ratings are akin to pre-election polls where they take a very small sample and try to estimate the entire population. The criticism on the TV ratings method are valid, not because they are biased but mostly because they are easily influenced (due to the relatively small size of samples) and also because of peoples consciousness of being "in the sample" affecting their viewing habits.

An equivalent criticism of their DVD numbers would be, for instance, how Disney and Sony may have been able to pull out a "win" on TF week by concentrating their BOGO efforts on Nielsen-reporting retailers. Or, how HD-DVD will probably dampen the Spider-Man 3 week's Blu-ray win margin by offering some free movies bundled at the retailer so they will count (if they are bundled by the manufacturer like PS3 40GB + SM3, or they are mail-in offers, they won't count).

Or, how passionate supporters on both sides are making conscious decisions to purchase movies on Nielsen-reporting locations. The last point is a double-edged sword for Nielsen, by the way -- this will make them easier to collect statistics, but can also affect the demographical makeups of their customers to some extent (for instance, it skews the data even more towards the early adopter/tech savvy crowd, which it probably does already due to Wal*Mart not being part of their pool).

In short, I don't think Nielsen is perfect but they are not biased, we just need to be careful when we evaluate the numbers to understand how they can be manipulated. But I'm clearly rambling. Now back to our regularly scheduled predictions.

enjoy
gandalf

Gandalf-

Not misinformed, just provided with different additional information. But overall well said and very on point with what I've been saying all along.

Shadowself, RUR, Shrike, Maxpower1987-

I never said that Nielsen TV ratings and VideoScan was collected the same. I did however explain that neither was a full count of the population and only a survey or poll just like any other. I also explained that it is the best option that is available and should be used as a GUIDE on consumer trends and not an end-all-be-all doctrine of all things in the format war.

Saying that, I was met with “Insiders” and “Knowledge Gurus” of whom would rather throw common manners to the side and attack me based on having a different opinion. Grandstanding on a soapbox is easy to do when you decide to mob a guy with a different view than your own. I’ve got facts and you’ve got facts. But it all comes down to hypocrisy when I am being disrespected and belittled for just having another side to the story. Before asking for someone else’s credentials try providing your own first. It will make your own credibility go farther.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Flux88MPH

Gandalf-

Not misinformed, just provided with different additional information. But overall well said and very on point with what I've been saying all along.

Shadowself, RUR, Shrike, Maxpower1987-

I never said that Nielsen TV ratings and VideoScan was collected the same. I did however explain that neither was a full count of the population and only a survey or poll just like any other. I also explained that it is the best option that is available and should be used as a GUIDE on consumer trends and not an end-all-be-all doctrine of all things in the format war.

Saying that, I was met with “Insiders” and “Knowledge Gurus” of whom would rather throw common manners to the side and attack me based on having a different opinion. Grandstanding on a soapbox is easy to do when you decide to mob a guy with a different view than your own. I’ve got facts and you’ve got facts. But it all comes down to hypocrisy when I am being disrespected and belittled for just having another side to the story. Before asking for someone else’s credentials try providing your own first. It will make your own credibility go farther.

While I am giving up on this, I really can't be bothered, I will say this. Please find one post in which I was less than curteous and replied with poor manners. One thing I will not have is people accusing me of being rude.

With that, I'm out.

[Neo65]

Probably a point that's previously discussed. There's a lot more households than there are retail stores.

It's impossible to collect stats from a large percentage of households, but it's very easy to collect sales data, especially point of sale data from retailers B&M or internet. As Nielsen has often prided themselves on collecting data from amazon, BB, CC and others, this is a large percentage of possible places to sell disks.

For DVD, the number was supposedly 40% of total sales.

The imperfection here is that Walmart is not included, and that is unfortunate, but whatever error there can be from nielsen, the fact that nielsen covers the major retailers we know about really gives an even MORE accurate picture of HDM sales, precisely because the ones they miss (outside of walmart) are the ones that are least likely to sell anywhere nearly as many disks as the ones they do.

[Flux88MPH]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

While I am giving up on this, I really can't be bothered, I will say this. Please find one post in which I was less than curteous and replied with poor manners. One thing I will not have is people accusing me of being rude.

With that, I'm out.

Sorry Max, you were not who I was referring to as being in the rude category. My apologies.

[Sonny]

You fruit loops are still going at it, PM each other or something

[Flux88MPH]

Originally Posted by Neo65

Probably a point that's previously discussed. There's a lot more households than there are retail stores.

It's impossible to collect stats from a large percentage of households, but it's very easy to collect sales data, especially point of sale data from retailers B&M or internet. As Nielsen has often prided themselves on collecting data from amazon, BB, CC and others, this is a large percentage of possible places to sell disks.

For DVD, the number was supposedly 40% of total sales.

The imperfection here is that Walmart is not included, and that is unfortunate, but whatever error there can be from nielsen, the fact that nielsen covers the major retailers we know about really gives an even MORE accurate picture of HDM sales, precisely because the ones they miss (outside of walmart) are the ones that are least likely to sell anywhere nearly as many disks as the ones they do.

Agreed.

I do have to say that though Wal-Mart is not getting the traffic on catalog HD discs they do hold a big stake on the new release Tuesdays and the first week sales. Not everyone cares about where they shop and just want the cheapest price. The truth is Wal-Mart captures different demographics than mall stores, entertainment chains, and even Target. This is exactly why Toshiba choose to liquidate their non-trueHD player on a store where people look for bargains rather than technology specs. I for one love to shop at the locally owned specialty music and movie stores we have in Austin, which are also under the Nielsen radar.

[Rup_Muk]

Originally Posted by Sonny

You fruit loops are still going at it, PM each other or something

I agree with Sonny...
It may come down to "guys... guys..."

Will it suffice to say that N/VS provides all sides with an independent metric for sales of HD media? If that is the case, and if N/VS remain consistent with their data gathering methodology, we can move this thread back to speculative predictions and discussion of the results from each week's numbers.

My $0.02.

Rup.

[bazie]

Originally Posted by L or S of Perfect?

Wow. The rat is at #3 on amazon.


IMO SM trilogy & SM3 probably didn't sell so much. I'm hoping to be proved wrong.

The amazon rankings were really not strong for spidey's. Presales were way worse then transformers. Hell right now spidey 3 isn't even in the top 10 a week and a bit after launch on amazon.

The rat and cars however rank of 3 and 7 respectively with pixar short a nice third

not even transformers made rank 3