81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by pflieger

I'm certain you can't, someone new with an open mind comes onto the forum and doesn't just swallow any old number that is posted as fact (when it is open to discussion) must be Troll.

I don't believe everything HD DVD supporters state as so called facts so I should just flip over and take any kind of statements Blu-Ray supporters state are set in stone honest to god facts.

The numbers on Spiderman 3 were posted by PaidGeek (I think on this forum) so is he also a Troll?

And the numbers on Transformers although released by Paramount have been only disputed by undisclosed Blu-Ray studios in the previous links.

So I will stay with my original numbers, I'm not a Troll but if believing what appears to be true numbers makes you so then just about everyone is a Troll.

If you don't agree with everything I say without reservation then 'YOU ARE A TROLL"!

Brilliant way to influence people to adopt the Blu-Ray format, NOT!

Actually the Transformer numbers have been disputed by EVERYONE except the HD camp......oh and you of course.

I'll ask again, are you telling me you count Nielsen weekly sales as some sort of Bluray propaganda?

[Blu-Light]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

Actually the Transformer numbers have been disputed by EVERYONE except the HD camp......oh and you of course.

I'll ask again, are you telling me you count Nielsen weekly sales as some sort of Bluray propaganda?

Based on the volume that is occuring right now with HD media sales if DUD has pulled off 190k scans on the neilson numbers, for BD to have beaten them by what they beat them by the volume would have had to be insane over the avg. Very doubtful.

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by pflieger

So I will stay with my original numbers, I'm not a Troll but if believing what appears to be true numbers makes you so then just about everyone is a Troll.

Your original numbers are not reliable so don't "stay" with them. I think that's the point of your detractors . Your argument is that the numbers of one source is invalid, therefore the invalid numbers from the other source are just as valid. This doesn't mean that an invalid number is valid. I think this is where you are drawing fire.

If you question the numbers, please continue to do so. However, as stated before, if you assert that Transformers sold 190k then you better have some numbers with a defined methodology (reasons previously stated).

As for the Spiderman 3 numbers, why do you think this is a stretch? It's not as if people are claiming a three-fold increase over previous best-sellers.

You have to keep in mind that people don't change their purchasing habits very easily. Transformers was not sold at a discounted price, so you are relying on the fervor of the Internet (AVS) community to push the numbers to triple the previous sales record. That sir, would be a miracle.

[roachxp]

Transformers is also being exported all over the world because of region free. Noticed some places take orders for 1 week, then order via Amazon.com to distribute over there. Just like some sites in the US take orders and get them from overseas too.

Sony is right 135K (SM3 + Boxset confirmed here by insider)
Parmount is right 190K

[Blu-Light]

Originally Posted by roachxp

Transformers is also being exported all over the world because of region free. Noticed some places take orders for 1 week, then order via Amazon.com to distribute over there. Just like some sites in the US take orders and get them from overseas too.

Sony is right 135K (SM3 + Boxset confirmed here by insider)
Parmount is right 190K

WRONG.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by roachxp

Transformers is also being exported all over the world because of region free. Noticed some places take orders for 1 week, then order via Amazon.com to distribute over there. Just like some sites in the US take orders and get them from overseas too.

Sony is right 135K (SM3 + Boxset confirmed here by insider)
Parmount is right 190K

How does that statement push Transformer's numbers any higher, when Amazon orders are already accounted for in the Nielsens?

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by roachxp

Transformers is also being exported all over the world because of region free. Noticed some places take orders for 1 week, then order via Amazon.com to distribute over there. Just like some sites in the US take orders and get them from overseas too.

Sony is right 135K (SM3 + Boxset confirmed here by insider)
Parmount is right 190K

But that isn't right. Europe has a 4:1 Blu-ray adoption rate and Japan it's 9:1. Your Paramount number is not grounded in anything. You postulate that over 70,000 Transformer units were pushed overseas (since 115,000 to 120,000 were approximately sold in North America). Are you suggesting that every person who purchased an HD-DVD player overseas got a copy (based on the previously cited numbers there are no more than 70,000 HD DVD units outside North America). No way in hell. Considering that HD-DVD is only supported in North America, I am really skeptical.

If you quote 135K, does that include the units outside North America? Probably not.

Bring the numbers with a methodology, not what people report. As far as I know, the sales are still 2:1 in Nielson and right now that is the best we have (although sometimes I feel like I am relying on a steaming pile of crap for the assertion that Blu-ray is beating HD DVD like a red-headed step-child).

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by roachxp

Transformers is also being exported all over the world because of region free. Noticed some places take orders for 1 week, then order via Amazon.com to distribute over there. Just like some sites in the US take orders and get them from overseas too.

Sony is right 135K (SM3 + Boxset confirmed here by insider)
Parmount is right 190K

And everyone else (Nielsen inlcuded) is wrong then? Paramount is right and that's the end of it? At least try to look like you're being objective. The only reason why I don't question the Spiderman numbers is because you can look at a point of reference, 300. This Transformer number is not only completely off the charts it makes NO SENSE. Almost half the HD owners purchased Transformers on the first DAY! You are buying that garbage?

Paramount has no proof and I think this little lie can come back to hurt them. Universal got pimp slapped by their own investors for releasing bogus sales of their Shrek 2 years ago.

That's exactly why I think Paramount has been extrememly quite after their intial press release of 190k sales. It's best for them that no one remembers it because when all that product is returned back to Paramount that is something they will have to account for when speaking to investors. If Paramount is correct they would be yelling from the roof tops right now how Nielson is wrong. Why are we not seeing that?

[AVBill]

When will we get Nielsen confirmation on the Spiderman 3 sold-through estimations? I know Paramount claimed that they sold 190K of transformers, but (I think) the Neilsen estimations of 115K suggested Paramount reported the shipped numbers.

My "guess" is that Sony learned from Paramount's misleading numbers, and decided not to repeat the same mistake. I'm "guessing" that the Spiderman 3 numbers will be closer to the (sold-through) Neilson numbers, but I'd like some Neilson numbers to corraborate that.

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by roachxp

Transformers is also being exported all over the world because of region free. Noticed some places take orders for 1 week, then order via Amazon.com to distribute over there. Just like some sites in the US take orders and get them from overseas too.

Sony is right 135K (SM3 + Boxset confirmed here by insider)
Parmount is right 190K

Spin again, Vanna.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Depends what you mean by skewing, a sales a sale, and is no doubt costing Sony/Disney pennies compared to HD-DVD's Paramount deal and Toshibas firesale.

Yes. In the TF week, Sony/Disney probably had to push something like 75k additional discs to win the week 51:49. Assuming the studios ate $10 off the retailer cost, that comes up to $750k. Or 0.5% of the $150mil payoff.

Pennies indeed.

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I have a problem with saying it's costing Sony/Disney pennies. The way I look at it a Buy One Get One Free DOES NOT lose them money. They still get money. My guess is they are making money off this buy one get one deals because it increases sales by a LARGE margin.

True. I doubt the per-unit incremental cost of discs are anywhere close to even the discounted price. So they are still making a profit, albeit a smaller one. I should have said they are making X amount of less money compared to the best-case future scenario without the sale (i.e., people who bought these discs on the sale would have bought it anyway in the future without sales).

Originally Posted by BluOgre

On the other hand Toshiba is GIVING away software completely free with hardware at the point of sale, there is NO money being made from these titles. Stuidos get paid because the product is NOT returned from retailers but Toshiba is basically eatting all the costs. They are not getting any money and basically paying full retail price to give them away for free.

Don't forget that they are selling the hardware below cost too, that's why their $98 firesale were not available in some states that have stricter anti-dumping laws. They are definitely losing money in that front as well.

They sold, what, 90k players? Even the most conservative estimate puts the manufacturing cost at around $200 (the consensus seems to be around $250-300, but let's give Toshiba the benefit of doubt). That's at least 9 million dollars they just threw down the tube....

enjoy
gandalf

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by The Don

you are a complete troll....plain and simple..

I don't see how you are not...

one number has been disputed on two different occasions....the accurate number is 115k after Walmart sales are included....and previous to that it was over 90k....or somewhere around it...

190k is a number with no legs...

there are links all over these forums showing the truth all the while you are spouting off about a whole bunch of nonsense...

Don, I agree with you 100%. Thre is no purpose in debating the Trolls. Their intention is to be disruptive. Thus, they keep posting the same FUD, they question the status of our insiders, they complain about our Mods, and they challange any info posted by the real Blu-ray forum members. This guy is a verified TROLL The last thing I want to do is come to blu-ray.com to read the same LIES and FUD they post in AV$. Goodbye to the Trolls, may I never encounter your FUD again.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Don't forget that they are selling the hardware below cost too, that's why their $98 firesale were not available in some states that have stricter anti-dumping laws. They are definitely losing money in that front as well.

They sold, what, 90k players? Even the most conservative estimate puts the manufacturing cost at around $200 (the consensus seems to be around $250-300, but let's give Toshiba the benefit of doubt). That's at least 9 million dollars they just threw down the tube....

enjoy
gandalf

Oh yeah I realize that. It's just from a software perspective it's nice to see that the BR side doesn't have to actually give away software to have it count as real sales to inflate their standing in the weekly sales figures.

They are losing money with pricing their hardware and losing money by completely giving away software (not just the mail in offers). The BR camp has yet to do anything like that and it makes me think that once they start "fighting fire with fire" this war will look even more lopsided.

I know they don't want to take losses for reducing the price of their hardware but hopefully on Blackfriday you see some really good deals with standalone players. I think that's where you can possibly see BR really kill HD.......because of course after Blackfriday comes possibly their biggest title of the year POTC 3.

[Neo65]

Needless to say, the current BOGO is going to make the week closing Nov 18th (announced on HMM Nov 23rd) difficult to predict, but seeing that 300-BD sales appears to have gone up weekly last week, we may just be seeing the xmas buying starting to trickle in, which means assumptions of older releases as anchor points for estimating sales now longer usable.

[xcg001]

I am mostly lurker on this forum but you are either trying to stir the debate or you are extremely gullible (not to use any stronger word).
There is absolutely no way Paramount to knew on Monday when they announced 190k number to know how much really was sold in retail by the end of previous day (Sunday). They don't have infrastructure similar to Nielsen reporting from POS and even Nielsen First Alert is not available until Wednesday - it takes signifficant efford to verify a data even coming from automated feed.
Also about Sony numbers - these numbers are as clear as possible - 400k shipped to retailers (AKA "sold" to retailers) and 130k sold to customers - the real number. The number Paramount cited (190k) corresponds to the 400k Sony gave. Actually I do believe even 300 numbers Warner cited was also sold to retailers but in the 300 case sold to retailers was almost equal to sold to customers since there was a shortage of 300 and people were going from store to store first week to find a copy.
So in summary all tree studios reported sold/shipped to retailers numbers:

300 - 250k shipped with 70-80% sell-tru first week (110K BR + 56K HD-DVD reported on first alert, which covers ~80% of all HD business)
Transformers - 190k shipped with 110-115k sold ~60% sell-tru (89K First Alert)
Spiderman 3 - 400k shipped with 130k sold - ~30% sell-tru first week (my guess for the first alert number would be ~105K which is 80% of 130k)

If you recalculate last week Videoscan numbers from HMM using 100-105K for Spiderman 3 combined you will notice that the constant sellers like 300 BR almost exactly matches with hard number (around 3000) that we know from previous week - and I am not even accounting for slight spike that may come from 40GB PS3 release that week.

Does all that make sense to you now or you really are a troll?
All these numbers for 300 and Transformers are from Niki article and are not disputed by anybody (even in their lame attempt to pass shipped as sold Paramount were afraid to dispute the number since being a publicly traded company will cause them a lot of grief if they are caught lying).
The only number I guessed in my previous calculations is the First Alert number for Spiderman 3 - as ~80% from 130K but that matches correctly with other titles percentages from last HMM magazine. The reason why I believe First Alert for HD media is 80% versus 60% for the DVDs is because HD media is sold much more through big retailers like Amazon, BB, CC, Fry that are included in First Alert numbers than for the DVD media. There is a lot of mom and pop shot selling DVD for cheap than DB/HD-DVD. And even if it is not 80% it doesn't really matter since the same metric (First Alert number) was used for all 3 movies compared.

Originally Posted by pflieger

I'm not here to fight with anyone who is not open to debate or rational questions.


If preferring the true numbers makes me so sort of evil Troll, then those of you that think so are not open to explaining and providing unbiased links to support their opinions, I'm open to learning but no one has tried to help me learn all they do is attack and repeat the same unsubstantiated biased facts the float around everywhere. The few that don't are in someway lumped in with me as being wrong.

Enough of a rant, I hope to continue to read and post to advance my knowledge here on this forum.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Spin again, Vanna.

[oldmike]

Originally Posted by xcg001

I am mostly lurker on this forum but you are either trying to stir the debate or you are extremely gullible (not to use any stronger word).
There is absolutely no way Paramount to knew on Monday when they announced 190k number to know how much really was sold in retail by the end of previous day (Sunday). They don't have infrastructure similar to Nielsen reporting from POS and even Nielsen First Alert is not available until Wednesday - it takes signifficant efford to verify a data even coming from automated feed.
Also about Sony numbers - these numbers are as clear as possible - 400k shipped to retailers (AKA "sold" to retailers) and 130k sold to customers - the real number. The number Paramount cited (190k) corresponds to the 400k Sony gave. Actually I do believe even 300 numbers Warner cited was also sold to retailers but in the 300 case sold to retailers was almost equal to sold to customers since there was a shortage of 300 and people were going from store to store first week to find a copy.
So in summary all tree studios reported sold/shipped to retailers numbers:

300 - 250k shipped with 70-80% sell-tru first week (110K BR + 56K HD-DVD reported on first alert, which covers ~80% of all HD business)
Transformers - 190k shipped with 110-115k sold ~60% sell-tru (89K First Alert)
Spiderman 3 - 400k shipped with 130k sold - ~30% sell-tru first week (my guess for the first alert number would be ~105K which is 80% of 130k)

If you recalculate last week Videoscan numbers from HMM using 100-105K for Spiderman 3 combined you will notice that the constant sellers like 300 BR almost exactly matches with hard number (around 3000) that we know from previous week - and I am not even accounting for slight spike that may come from 40GB PS3 release that week.

Does all that make sense to you now or you really are a troll?
All these numbers for 300 and Transformers are from Niki article and are not disputed by anybody (even in their lame attempt to pass shipped as sold Paramount were afraid to dispute the number since being a publicly traded company will cause them a lot of grief if they are caught lying).
The only number I guessed in my previous calculations is the First Alert number for Spiderman 3 - as ~80% from 130K but that matches correctly with other titles percentages from last HMM magazine. The reason why I believe First Alert for HD media is 80% versus 60% for the DVDs is because HD media is sold much more through big retailers like Amazon, BB, CC, Fry that are included in First Alert numbers than for the DVD media. There is a lot of mom and pop shot selling DVD for cheap than DB/HD-DVD. And even if it is not 80% it doesn't really matter since the same metric (First Alert number) was used for all 3 movies compared.

who are you calling a troll after all i saw the same number of the movies in stores

[xcg001]

Originally Posted by oldmike

who are you calling a troll after all i saw the same number of the movies in stores

Is that a question to me? I was replying to the funky numbers quoted by "pflieger", and what does the number of movies in stores has to do with this discussion?

[pflieger]

Originally Posted by BlueNeon

Don, I agree with you 100%. Thre is no purpose in debating the Trolls. Their intention is to be disruptive. Thus, they keep posting the same FUD, they question the status of our insiders, they complain about our Mods, and they challange any info posted by the real Blu-ray forum members. This guy is a verified TROLL The last thing I want to do is come to blu-ray.com to read the same LIES and FUD they post in AV$. Goodbye to the Trolls, may I never encounter your FUD again.

I've never been to AVS, are you saying anyone who came here from AVS is a Troll?

And how am I a Troll when all I did is use the numbers reported by your insider and the number given by the studio.

I know you all think Sony would never stretch the truth, so I believed them and if someone could please post an unbiased link other then the one with the mystery Blu-Ray studios making a accusation against the Paramount number (if their complaint had merit they would have given their names for the record), then please do so.

I'm really sorry that someone has to be so gullible to accept every piece of information without any proof that some of you post to be not called a Troll, would you suppose I would get the same reaction from the other forums from all the HD DVD supporters if I also asked for proof of their overblown statements, I wouldn't like that either and neither would any open minded people looking to learn more about the formats.

I never disputed the numbers given for Spiderman 3 (actually I posted 5,000 more sole then all of you have been yelling about in repeated posts).

Now could we drop this particular subject unless one of you could provide a reputable link and change my mind on the Paramount numbers sold
.

If what I believed is wrong I'll post I was wrong until then drop your tired attacks, it makes you look little and petty.

[L or S of Perfect?]

^^^

The neilson article with both the SM3 & Transformers #s sold has been posted numerous times.

If you can't believe a 3rd party source with access to POS data from most of the major retailers, I dont know what to tell you.