81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[savage1984]

Originally Posted by Rob71

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo

That was great. It's been awhile since i've seen the life of brian... god what a good movie

[cawgijoe]

We are all looking at the battle from the Blu-Ray side. Let's take a look from the Red side and see what we have......Blu-Ray SW sales are leading at least 2:1.......HD DUD has not one a single week this year and is currently losing 65 to 35........the A2 had to be cleared off the shelves in a political fire sale move to make room for the A3.......very few exclusive good releases are coming out in HD DUD.....stores have increased Blu shelf space.......Target is now demoing Blu on an end cap.......the world is mostly Blu.....and so far Toshiba is the only make of HD DUD players.........I'm sure I've missed a point or two, but if I was a sole owner of an Hd DUD player, I would not be very happy and probably reluctant to spend my money.....

[Justbrowsing]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I think people are ignoring the real reason why the pricing isn't as important

A store makes less than 10% on an HD DVD player

They make 30-35% on a BD player

So if BD players are moving the same as HD players, which one do you think the retailers would rather carry? Retailers in the end are the only people who really matter in the war, because what they don't carry, people can't buy

If stores are willing to use SAL players as door busters or loss leaders in order to profit on other items in the store, then retailers will sell plenty of SAL units. Read that: there will be more $99/$199 days in the future.

If CEs are unwilling to compete with sub $200 pricing then there is a significant segment of the buying public that will be uninterested. Period.
These folks don't care about PIP, 1.1, Lossless.. none of it. They want a deal. They are not represented on this forum or even the DUD forums. They are just your average shoppers looking for a deal each week. And there are exponentially more of them then there are of us. They will scoop up all of the sub-$200 players that are made available by either side of this war.

I am afraid that content is the trump card that we have. It is content that will convince JSP, his mom, and his sister that the DUD players are NOT a deal. UNFORTUNATELY... content is not overwhelmingly in our camp. Yes we have Disney... and that counts for alot... but its not everything. Sad to say, that at the end of the day... Studios will follow the customer.

- When studio support was one sided, I agree that support drove sales.

- Now that studio support is more even, I believe that sales will drive support (and that's exactly what Warner is saying)

For those discussing BD standalone player prices, go and search post history from paidgeek and kjack. Based on what they've posted, it seems the major BD Ce's have little interest in driving player prices down or subsidizing players.

Assume studios know that BD CE's have no interest in subsidizing players. If for some reason they believe that sub $200 players can massively increase the HD market (e.g. low price = more sales .. basic economics) then they will follow the market. Studio support is fluid... as we saw last summer.

I am just guessing like most of you... but I really feel that price is really king and will ulimately win the day...

How do we convice the BDA to lower SAL prices?

[huntifosi]

Originally Posted by Justbrowsing

If stores are willing to use SAL players as door busters or loss leaders in order to profit on other items in the store, then retailers will sell plenty of SAL units. Read that: there will be more $99/$199 days in the future.

If CEs are unwilling to compete with sub $200 pricing then there is a significant segment of the buying public that will be uninterested. Period.
These folks don't care about PIP, 1.1, Lossless.. none of it. They want a deal. They are not represented on this forum or even the DUD forums. They are just your average shoppers looking for a deal each week. And there are exponentially more of them then there are of us. They will scoop up all of the sub-$200 players that are made available by either side of this war.

I am afraid that content is the trump card that we have. It is content that will convince JSP, his mom, and his sister that the DUD players are NOT a deal. UNFORTUNATELY... content is not overwhelmingly in our camp. Yes we have Disney... and that counts for alot... but its not everything. Sad to say, that at the end of the day... Studios will follow the customer.

- When studio support was one sided, I agree that support drove sales.

- Now that studio support is more even, I believe that sales will drive support (and that's exactly what Warner is saying)



Assume studios know that BD CE's have no interest in subsidizing players. If for some reason they believe that sub $200 players can massively increase the HD market (e.g. low price = more sales .. basic economics) then they will follow the market. Studio support is fluid... as we saw last summer.

I am just guessing like most of you... but I really feel that price is really king and will ulimately win the day...

How do we convice the BDA to lower SAL prices?

Cheap Blu players WILL NOT win this. I refuse to believe people spending $2500 on a 1080p LCD will only buy a $100 HD capable player. That is just insane. Quick analogy, the Soviet Union and friends used many cheap MiG fighters and now enjoy the worst ratio of air to air kills, around 1 to 100 or so. Content and studio support is what will win this format 'war'

[The Guardian]

Yes but way more people use MiGs than F-16s, for example

Some people would rather spend 99% of their money to get the best TV possible and then get cheap accessories...

[blu2]

Originally Posted by huntifosi

Cheap Blu players WILL NOT win this. I refuse to believe people spending $2500 on a 1080p LCD will only buy a $100 HD capable player. That is just insane. Quick analogy, the Soviet Union and friends used many cheap MiG fighters and now enjoy the worst ratio of air to air kills, around 1 to 100 or so. Content and studio support is what will win this format 'war'

What about the larger number of people who want to spend $1000-1200 on an HDTV?

Harrdware prices definitely have an impact, especially when the future of both formats are not secured and there are no guarantees on studio support.

If Blu Ray wants to go move things beyond the status quo, it needs to get off the early adopter page and onto mass market.

Otherwise, they're taking a big risk.

[PrinceLH]

Originally Posted by huntifosi

Cheap Blu players WILL NOT win this. I refuse to believe people spending $2500 on a 1080p LCD will only buy a $100 HD capable player. That is just insane. Quick analogy, the Soviet Union and friends used many cheap MiG fighters and now enjoy the worst ratio of air to air kills, around 1 to 100 or so. Content and studio support is what will win this format 'war'

I disagree. Many, in the general public, do not buy $2500.00 T.V.'s, they buy Visio's, Ilo's and other Chinese brand T.V.'s that are under $1000.00. When they do this, they end up buying the A2's and A3's to go with them. They now are HD ready for under $1000.00. They don't know the difference between a 30G and a 50G disk, or PCM, Lossless, or Dolby 5.1, since they probably don't set their system up with any kind of surround sound. I have friends who have bought HDTV's, during the last 2 years, that have no HD source, and believe that standard DVD is HD, because it is widescreen. You can tell them, that there is a difference and they don't care. Blu Ray has the more chic name and nicer advertising, like a good purfume company, but that means nothing to the boars, that eat at McDonalds on their anniversary, instead of Jack Astors. It's price, price, price!

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by PrinceLH

Blu Ray has the more shiek name and nicer advertising, like a good purfume company, but that means nothing to the boars, that eat at McDonalds on their anniversary, instead of Jack Astors. It's price, price, price!

Don't you mean "chic"? That was funny!!!

[PrinceLH]

Originally Posted by jsb_hburg

Lexicon or CRA need not be retained to understand that the market for Blu-ray players exhibit elastic demand. Certainly, BDA manufacturers must be working towards driving the player cost structure downwards without having to resort to subsidization to lower retail price.

The HD DVD share for this past week should not have exceeded 30% but for Toshiba's subsidization of free movies scanned at the point of sale with firesale A2 units.

Over the last approximately 15 months, the price of a Samsung player, for example, has declined from $999 to $299. Prices will likely continue to decrease incrementally with each passing month until such time a significant consumer adoption equilibrium has been achieved.

Considering studio affiliations, there is no hope for Toshiba. The best solution for Toshiba is to announce a dual format player at CES '08 or soon thereafter. When and if such event occurs, the best outcome for consumers is the exclusive use of the better Blu-ray technology by all studios.

The price differential story has been at play since the Blu-ray format launched almost 15 months ago. As for standalones, BDA manufacturers have sold players at or above cost while Toshiba has sold its players for well below cost. Despite the subsidization effect, Blu-ray has consistently outsold HD DVD by 2 to 1 for movies.

There is no cause for concern. Continue buying your BDs, even WB BDs even though WB does not optimize for BD for video.

The biggest concern with this argument is this:

Once we experience all of the BOGO sales, we buy up all of our back catalogue titles and then run out of titles to buy. We now expect lower cost software and we wait. Studio's, like FOX, maintain a higher cost per title selection, and we wait for better prices. Our marketshare will start to drop because there are no more lower cost titles to buy and DUD gets a life. What is left to do then? Think about dropping player prices? DUD has already beat us to it, and many of the early Blu adopters buy in to get the Universal and Paramount titles, previously unavailable to them. They should be dropping their profile 1.0 players to under $199.00 right now. This is a very risky time to be standing pat in this card game.

[PrinceLH]

Originally Posted by Esox50

Don't you mean "chic"? That was funny!!!

Pretty much...LOL......I love it when I get wound up!!!

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by PrinceLH

I disagree. Many, in the general public, do not buy $2500.00 T.V.'s, they buy Visio's, Ilo's and other Chinese brand T.V.'s that are under $1000.00. When they do this, they end up buying the A2's and A3's to go with them. They now are HD ready for under $1000.00. They don't know the difference between a 30G and a 50G disk, or PCM, Lossless, or Dolby 5.1, since they probably don't set their system up with any kind of surround sound. I have friends who have bought HDTV's, during the last 2 years, that have no HD source, and believe that standard DVD is HD, because it is widescreen. You can tell them, that there is a difference and they don't care. Blu Ray has the more chic name and nicer advertising, like a good purfume company, but that means nothing to the boars, that eat at McDonalds on their anniversary, instead of Jack Astors. It's price, price, price!

Then again they are not going to be willing to buy an HD DVD for $25-$35 when they can buy a DVD for $10 or less and upscale it if they are so cheap.

[jsb_hburg]

Originally Posted by PrinceLH

The biggest concern with this argument is this:

Once we experience all of the BOGO sales, we buy up all of our back catalogue titles and then run out of titles to buy. We now expect lower cost software and we wait. Studio's, like FOX, maintain a higher cost per title selection, and we wait for better prices. Our marketshare will start to drop because there are no more lower cost titles to buy and DUD gets a life. What is left to do then? Think about dropping player prices? DUD has already beat us to it, and many of the early Blu adopters buy in to get the Universal and Paramount titles, previously unavailable to them. They should be dropping their profile 1.0 players to under $199.00 right now. This is a very risky time to be standing pat in this card game.

This is true, if the number of Blu-ray supporters remain static, resulting in a zero sum game - this is not what we have here. If I recall what I read here correctly that BD standalone demand is keeping pace with supply, then there is growth in Blu-ray adoption by consumers. The recent PS3 price cuts have shown early positive results which may translate into increased BD sales.

Don't fret about this. For the moment, enjoy the fruits of competition which has resulted in pristine encodes and declining prices on both hardware and software.

[jsb_hburg]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Then again they are not going to be willing to buy an HD DVD for $25-$35 when they can buy a DVD for $10 or less and upscale it if they are so cheap.

BD's main competition is DVD. For example, I never bought the Cars DVD knowing that it would come to BD. The wait was absolutely worth it. But for some among the Blu, the Cars DVD was good enough upscaled. After seeing Cars on Starz HD and on BD, there is no way that the upscaled DVD holds a candle to the Cars BD.

It is good to see the Disney BD commercials on HD channels to spread the word about BD and to show a difference.

[PrinceLH]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Then again they are not going to be willing to buy an HD DVD for $25-$35 when they can buy a DVD for $10 or less and upscale it if they are so cheap.

The problem is: Who is stopping Universal and Paramount from dropping their prices and also doing BOGO sales. I saw Future Shops, here in Canada, selling DUD titles from Paramount for $19.99 this weekend. That makes them competitive in price, when you consider the Buy One Get One titles, by Sony, are $34.99 and $32.99 by comparison. They also nick you for the full tax price, before discounting the price on the BOGO deal. That is not a bargain!

[blu2]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Then again they are not going to be willing to buy an HD DVD for $25-$35 when they can buy a DVD for $10 or less and upscale it if they are so cheap.

I'm not sure I understand the perspective that we should be happy to pay high prices for players, and that anyone interested in a purchasing a reasonably priced players must be "cheap" and not worthy of enjoying a HD experience. Just because someone can afford to spend $500 on a player doesn't mean they want to, and doesn't mean they will not jump on a bargain that will allow them to experience additional material.

[reiella]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

Yes but way more people use MiGs than F-16s, for example

Some people would rather spend 99% of their money to get the best TV possible and then get cheap accessories...

Don't undersell the MIGs either. The air-tech war was very heated and contested.

[The Guardian]

Not sure about the newest MiGs, but the lastest Sukhoi fighters are more than a match for anything in the world other than the dozen or so F-22's the USAF has.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

Not sure about the newest MiGs, but the lastest Sukhoi fighters are more than a match for anything in the world other than the dozen or so F-22's the USAF has.

I'll have to ask you to trust me when I say that that's not an accurate characterization. Assuming you're referring to the Su-37, it's not in production and there are varying opinions regarding its combat capabilities. Remember, the airframe is only part of the combat equation and US ECM, nav, targeting and weapons systems are truly second to none.

[turboedguy]

Originally Posted by RUR

I'll have to ask you to trust me when I say that that's not an accurate characterization. Assuming you're referring to the Su-37, it's not in production and there are varying opinions regarding its combat capabilities. Remember, the airframe is only part of the combat equation and US ECM, nav, targeting and weapons systems are truly second to none.

And the russians used to strip down the models for air show performances(all redundant systems, fake missles, etc...) to enhance the appearance of the airframes abilities.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by turboedguy

And the russians used to strip down the models for air show performances(all redundant systems, fake missles, etc...) to enhance the appearance of the airframes abilities.

I was at the '97(?) Farnborough show where they demo'd the Su-37's maneuverability by flipping, then rotating the aircraft. Pretty nifty, but more trick than any kind of combat maneuver....

and now, back to the Nielsen numbers!