Massive asteroid could hit Earth in 2182, warn scientists

[tilallr1]

Good news though, we will all be dead by then.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...cientists.html

Massive asteroid could hit Earth in 2182, warn scientists

By Niall Firth
Last updated at 1:18 PM on 28th July 2010

A massive asteroid might crash into Earth in the year 2182, scientists have warned.

The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth at some point before the year 2200, but is most likely to hit us on 24th September 2182.

It was first discovered in 1999 and is more than 1,800 feet across. If an asteroid of this size hit the Earth it would cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction.

And scientists say that any attempt to try and divert the asteroid will have to take place more than 100 years before it is due to hit to have any chance of success.

If the asteroid had not been spotted until after 2080 it would be impossible to divert it from its target, they warned in a new research paper.

While the odds may seem long, they are far shorter than that of the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.

A competition was launched in 2008 by the Planetary Society for designs for a space probe to land on Apophis and monitor its progress.

Maria Eugenia Sansaturio and scientists from the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain have used mathematical models to calculate the risk of the asteroid hitting the Earth anytime between now and the year 2200.

And they were shocked to discover that there are two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in the year 2182.

‘The total impact probability of asteroid '(101955) 1999 RQ36' can be estimated in 0.00092 –approximately one-in-a-thousand chance-, but what is most surprising is that over half of this chance (0.00054) corresponds to 2182,’ Sansaturio said.

The asteroid is now behind the Sun and will next be observable only in the spring of 2011.

Scientists have estimated and monitored the potential impacts for this asteroid between now and 2200 using two different mathematical models.

Between now and 2060, the chances of Earth impacts from 1999 RQ36 are remote.

But the researchers discovered that the odds increase fourfold by 2080 as the asteroid's orbit brings it swinging back towards Earth.

The odds then drop before rising again in 2162 and 2182.

Asteroid 1999 RQ36 is part of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA) group, which all have the possibility of hitting the Earth due to their orbits and are all considered likely to cause damage.

Even though the asteroid’s orbit is well-known thanks to 290 different observations by telescopes and 13 radar measurements there is uncertainty about its path because of the so-called Yarkovsky effect.

This effect, first discovered in 2003 and named after a Russian engineer, is produced by the way an asteroid absorbs energy from the sun and re-radiates it into space as heat. This can subtly alter the asteroid’s flight path.

The research, which has been published in Icarus journal, predicts what could happen in the upcoming years considering this effect.

Sansaturio said: ‘The consequence of this complex dynamic is not just the likelihood of a comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic deflection procedure (path deviation) could only be made before the impact in 2080, and more easily, before 2060.'

She added: ‘If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would require a technology that is not currently available.

‘Therefore, this example suggests that impact monitoring, which up to date does not cover more than 80 or 100 years, may need to encompass more than one century.

‘Thus, the efforts to deviate this type of objects could be conducted with moderate resources, from a technological and financial point of view.’

The impact from the asteroid that created the famous Chicxulub crater in Mexico would have caused 'mega-tsunamis' many thousands of feet high.

It is believed that this asteroid led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

Scientists around the world have long been discussing ways of deflecting potentially hazardous asteroids to prevent them hitting Earth.

One of the more popular methods is to detonate a nuclear warhead on an approaching asteroid to deflect it from its orbital path.

Last month physicist David Dearborn of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the US argued that nuclear weapons could be the best strategy for avoiding an asteroid impact - especially for large asteroids and with little warning time.

[MaCruz]

[Show spoiler]We still have to get through 2012 though.

Interesting article btw. Makes you wonder "what if" a killer asteroid is on it's way to hit earth in the next few years or so during our life time.

[tilallr1]

[Show spoiler]Or the environmental crisis / global warming.

[Q?]

Far out if we predicted our own doom...

[tilallr1]

Originally Posted by MaCruz

Interesting article btw. Makes you wonder "what if" a killer asteroid is on it's way to hit earth in the next few years or so during our life time.

Well as stated in the article, scientists are most concerned about the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.

They are so concerned about it, they are planning to land a man on a asteroid by 2025 and install a tracking device. This could actually be Apophis which passes very close to us in 2029. They will probably also study and test possible diversion techniques, especially if the odd of impact for Apophis increase by 2029.

[mikejet]

This worries me.

No one lives forever, no one. But with advances in modern science and my high level income, it's not crazy to think I can live to be 245, maybe 300. Heck, I just read in the newspaper that they put a pig heart in some guy from Russia.

[nefilim]

I`m sure I`ll get a lot of hate for this, but I feel the worst thing ever happened to Earth was that man was evolved. We have destroyed so many other species and plants it`s just amazing. And just keep on doing that in the name of progress ... just see what BP have done. And how many are killed in wars in the name of the religion etc. OK - I won`t go there

But, I don`t wish any harm to Earth it self, but would not share a tear if mankind would vanish over night ... this planet would be better off.

A somber thoughts, I know, but we`ll suffocate and drain this magnificent and beautiful planet.

[Blu-Benny]

all i can say is someone better make a note of this and NOT lose it before 2100!!!

[Q?]

Originally Posted by Blu-Benny

all i can say is someone better make a note of this and NOT lose it before 2100!!!

Yeah, we should invent some durable Post-it notes that can last +100 years.

[Al_The_Strange]

Hey, 2182 is the new 2012!

[tilallr1]

Originally Posted by Al_The_Strange

Hey, 2182 is the new 2012!

[Show spoiler]Except that it is based on something real.

[JJ]

Originally Posted by nefilim

I`m sure I`ll get a lot of hate for this, but I feel the worst thing ever happened to Earth was that man was evolved. We have destroyed so many other species and plants it`s just amazing. And just keep on doing that in the name of progress ... just see what BP have done. And how many are killed in wars in the name of the religion etc. OK - I won`t go there

But, I don`t wish any harm to Earth it self, but would not share a tear if mankind would vanish over night ... this planet would be better off.

A somber thoughts, I know, but we`ll suffocate and drain this magnificent and beautiful planet.

Say - I happen to agree completely with you. People with our mindsets are few and far inbetween.

[Monolithium]

Originally Posted by nefilim

I`m sure I`ll get a lot of hate for this, but I feel the worst thing ever happened to Earth was that man was evolved. We have destroyed so many other species and plants it`s just amazing. And just keep on doing that in the name of progress ... just see what BP have done. And how many are killed in wars in the name of the religion etc. OK - I won`t go there

But, I don`t wish any harm to Earth it self, but would not share a tear if mankind would vanish over night ... this planet would be better off.

A somber thoughts, I know, but we`ll suffocate and drain this magnificent and beautiful planet.

Not from me. I agree with everything you said.

[Q?]

Originally Posted by JJ

Say - I happen to agree completely with you. People with our mindsets are few and far inbetween.

Originally Posted by Monolithium

Not from me. I agree with everything you said.

Not from me either, it's the cold hard truth...

[bandit29]

Meh..I'll be dead by then and the Chicago Cubs still won't have won a World Series..

[DetroitSportsFan]

Isn't there an asteroid scare in 2020 as well? I think the odds of impact were much less than this one though....

[nefilim]

you really do live in Nuuk, Greenland ? I just Googeled some pictures, what a remote and beautiful place ! Absolutely !

I`m starting 12 months sabbatical in September and going to visit places I`ve always wanted. as ecological way as possible of course. using buses, walking, cycling - not flying.

Greenland would be nice to see.

[brettallica]

Originally Posted by nefilim

I`m sure I`ll get a lot of hate for this, but I feel the worst thing ever happened to Earth was that man was evolved. We have destroyed so many other species and plants it`s just amazing. And just keep on doing that in the name of progress ... just see what BP have done. And how many are killed in wars in the name of the religion etc. OK - I won`t go there

But, I don`t wish any harm to Earth it self, but would not share a tear if mankind would vanish over night ... this planet would be better off.

A somber thoughts, I know, but we`ll suffocate and drain this magnificent and beautiful planet.

I'd gladly challenge this, but I'm pretty spent from a terribly-officiated softball game last night and am out of bullets! Besides, I would like to keep my membership here and not "get into it" with another member about politics/religion/beliefs/etc.

I do agree with parts of what you're saying, though.

[Blu-Benny]

this planet needs a good cleansing.....and i think it's gonna happen sooner than later!!!

[surfdude12]

Originally Posted by nefilim

I`m sure I`ll get a lot of hate for this, but I feel the worst thing ever happened to Earth was that man was evolved. We have destroyed so many other species and plants it`s just amazing. And just keep on doing that in the name of progress ... just see what BP have done. And how many are killed in wars in the name of the religion etc. OK - I won`t go there

But, I don`t wish any harm to Earth it self, but would not share a tear if mankind would vanish over night ... this planet would be better off.

A somber thoughts, I know, but we`ll suffocate and drain this magnificent and beautiful planet.

you need to watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

he addresses each of your points