81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[cking2729]

They gave away 3 movies directly, 7 were mail in. Of course, the 3 free movies count towards Amazon's sales, since you technically "purchase them." They just ring up to zero in the cart. The Departed, Shooter, and a few others were among the list, hence, The Departed and Shooter have been ranking above Blu-Ray on Amazon sales for the week. The A3 sale obviously has to do with the top few movies ranking higher than Blu-Ray, but my concern is the movies that aren't even in the sale have shot up out of nowhere. Planet Earth obviously being the most appalling. If you guys don't think there will be any huge effect in the weekly sales numbers, I'll take your word for it! I hope things will be just as bad for HD-DuD as normal....

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by cking2729

They gave away 3 movies directly, 7 were mail in. Of course, the 3 free movies count towards Amazon's sales, since you technically "purchase them." They just ring up to zero in the cart. The Departed, Shooter, and a few others were among the list, hence, The Departed and Shooter have been ranking above Blu-Ray on Amazon sales for the week. The A3 sale obviously has to do with the top few movies ranking higher than Blu-Ray, but my concern is the movies that aren't even in the sale have shot up out of nowhere. Planet Earth obviously being the most appalling. If you guys don't think there will be any huge effect in the weekly sales numbers, I'll take your word for it! I hope things will be just as bad for HD-DuD as normal....

And the DVD for Planet Earth shot up to number 1 for some reason and it isn't the new one it is the old version. Christmas gifts?

[cking2729]

Well what do you think atomik? What will the sales ratio's look like for the next few weeks? I'm curious to see what you think. Clearly a huge spark of interest in HD-DVD has occured. Planet Earth on DuD on Amazon is #9 now, Blu Ray is #65. The average rank of their top 50 is 443 vs 749 for Blu. It's been a major turnaround this week. And of those top 50, 19 are Warner.

Edit: Of the top 109 movies, HD-DVD's make up: 1, 2, 8-27, 29, 30, 34-38, 39, 45-46, 49-53, 58-61, 64, 65, 68-70, 74, 80-83, 85, 87, 88, 91

[xradman]

From The Hollywood Reporter

DreamWorks' "Shrek the Third" topped the national DVD sales and rental charts the week ending Nov. 18, with first-week sales so strong that the Paramount Home Entertainment release is already among the year's top 10 DVD sellers.

The previous week's top seller, Walt Disney Studios' "Ratatouille," hung strong and finished second, while Warner's "Ocean's Thirteen" debuted at No. 3.

The power of the green ogre was such that "Shrek 2" reappeared in the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert top 20, bowing at No. 17, while a "Shrek Trilogy" consisting of all three films bowed even higher, at No. 12.

On Home Media Magazine's video rental chart for the week, "Shrek the Third" handily won the top slot with estimated rental revenues of $11 million. "Ocean's Thirteen" bowed at No 2, with estimated earnings of $7.9 million.

The previous week's top renter, Universal Studios' "I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry," slipped to No. 3, generating an additional $7.7 million its sophomore week, down just 17% from the previous week.

On the high-definition disc front, "Shrek the Third" was the hands-down winner on the HD DVD chart, outselling fellow debutante "Oceans 13" by a 3-to-1 margin. On the Blu-ray chart, "Ratatouille" remained at No. 1, while "Ocean's 13" bowed at No. 2. "Ocean's Thirteen" is one of the few recent new releases available on both high-definition disc formats; even so, total sales were about 17% less than the HD DVD-only version of "Shrek the Third."

[jsb_hburg]

On the high-definition disc front, "Shrek the Third" was the hands-down winner on the HD DVD chart, outselling fellow debutante "Oceans 13" by a 3-to-1 margin. On the Blu-ray chart, "Ratatouille" remained at No. 1, while "Ocean's 13" bowed at No. 2. "Ocean's Thirteen" is one of the few recent new releases available on both high-definition disc formats; even so, total sales were about 17% less than the HD DVD-only version of "Shrek the Third."

Okay, who can interpolate this?

[cking2729]

It sounds like they mean "Shrek the 3rd on HD-DVD sold 17% more than Oceans 13 on HD-DVD and Blu-Ray combined."

Which means if Rat and Oceans are still #1 and #2 on BD, we are going to lose the week or very narrowly win

[efralope]

So basically:

Blu-ray
1. Ratatouille
2. Ocean's 13


HD DVD
1. Shrek 3
2. Ocean's 13

Also, we can assume the following regarding sales:

-possible Ratatouille position-
Shrek 3 100.00
-possible Ratatouille position-
Ocean's 13 Blu-ray - 49.66
Ocean's 13 HD DVD - 33.34

Ratatouille (in it's 2nd week) came out on top of Ocean's 13 Blu-ray, but it's uncertain if it also came above Shrek 3 (which would be very impressive).

Also, Blu-ray had a buy one get one free that week, so we don't know yet if Ocean's 13 on HD DVD sold enough to make the top 10, but Shrek 3 is definitely in the top 2.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by jsb_hburg

Okay, who can interpolate this?

I stole this from a poster on hidefdigest, but it looks just like what I was thinking...

"This means the top 4 HD titles must be something like:

Shrek 3 100
Ratatouille 51 (or more)
Oceans 13 blu-ray 50
Ocean's 13 HD DVD 32"

Something like that. Looks like efralope has the same idea...overall, a slight edge for HD-DVD on those top four, but with BD normally having much more depth...I don't think there's any concern on the BD side with BOGO frees and normal deeper buyers amongst other titles.

[jsb_hburg]

Looks like a lot of Blurple people went for Shrek 3. The Blurple crowd are those who could not overcome separation anxiety from Paramount and Dreamworks and their whopping 30 or so releases on Blu.

I will guess 57:43 Blu.

[Bolaar]

I believe that HD-DVD might actually win this weeks numbers, which come out next week...I think. Unless something huge happens. But it will not be won by much.

HD-DVD people will be screaming that the hill has turned and it is over for Blu...because they actually won a single week.

Come first week in December they will get wiped again and be back down where they were.

Key will be next year.

I think they will get quite a surprise with all the PS3s that sold with Spider Man as a movie. When those that bought them see how that movie looks they will buy more. And LOTS of PS3s have been selling...

[efralope]

We don't know what Ratatouille's position on the chart is (it might be neck-and-neck with Shrek 3 or even surpass it), but it got outsold by Shrek 3 not worse than 2-1.

The success of the buy-1-get-1 free will determine what makes up the rest of the Top 10. If it was a major success, we'll probably see a lot of major catalog titles there, otherwise Spidey 3 & boxset, Transformers, and maybe even Ocean's boxset will be there.

[cking2729]

Shrek 3 was horrible. Much worse than people make Spiderman 3 out to be. Do you guys think it will move more units than Spidey 3 did in its first week?

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by cking2729

Shrek 3 was horrible. Much worse than people make Spiderman 3 out to be. Do you guys think it will move more units than Spidey 3 did in its first week?

Based on what the Hollywood Reporter is saying...not even close. I think at most, 60k for Shrek 3...whereas across both SKUs Spidey 3 did over 130k. Granted, it has two things going against it...it's a poorly received animated title...and it's on HD-DVD instead of Blu.

[cking2729]

Ookie: Something does seem to be wrong. I still can't believe the turn around for HD-DVD I have seen on the Amazon sales. It's almost like......90,000+ people up and decided to buy some HD-DVDs.....odd.

[jsb_hburg]

Originally Posted by cking2729

Shrek 3 was horrible. Much worse than people make Spiderman 3 out to be. Do you guys think it will move more units than Spidey 3 did in its first week?

But what other choices do the HD DVD crowd have? Shrek 3 sales benefit from the lack of selection on HD DVD.

[cking2729]

Originally Posted by jsb_hburg

But what other choices do the HD DVD crowd have? Shrek 3 sales benefit from the lack of selection on HD DVD.

Maybe that explain why Planet Earth HD-DVD is in the top 10 on Amazon's overall movie sales. The HD-DVD folks got tired of not being able to buy anything, so they just bought Planet Earth again.

[horseflesh]

Originally Posted by jsb_hburg

But what other choices do the HD DVD crowd have? Shrek 3 sales benefit from the lack of selection on HD DVD.

Exactly what I said on the previous page

Seriously though, the 90k giveaway players are clearly having an affect.
Even if a relatively small fraction of them pick up a disc or two, it'll make a difference.

Friday's results might be even closer than my 57:43 guess......

[cking2729]

And what about the weeks following when the $169 and $199 players kick in? What happens then? The gap just slowly closes? The Amazon sale so far this week has kicked our Amazon sales in the arse. We can't BOGO them to death......

We by far have the best titles coming out this holiday, but all the new HD-DVD buyers picking up ancient titles might just cancel out all our awesome new ones.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by cking2729

It sounds like they mean "Shrek the 3rd on HD-DVD sold 17% more than Oceans 13 on HD-DVD and Blu-Ray combined."

I know this is a technicality, but it affects the numbers. It said 17% less for Oceans 13. That isn't quite the same as 17% less for Shrek the Third, since 17% less leaves 83% and 100 is 20% more than 83 (100/83). This same kind of thing relates to a lot of other things, like if a company offers its employees a 15% discount on their stock and the employees sell it for the same total value without the discount applied, they make 17.6% (minus fees).

Originally Posted by efralope

Shrek 3 100.00
Ocean's 13 Blu-ray - 53.66
Ocean's 13 HD DVD - 33.34

I think you have it generally right, except that if the original numbers are correct and exact, 17% less mean 83 total for the 2 versions of Ocean's 13. So:

Ocean's 13 Blu-ray - 49.66
Ocean's 13 HD DVD - 33.34

or a ratio of about 1.5:1. Hopefully we'll get to see numbers for the box sets.

--Darin

[efralope]

woops, you are right, I subtracted 13 for some reason...