81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

It is no wonder that hd backers still think that they have some kind of chance.

Because they're deluded.
It is a massive win for BD that a few B1G1 sales allowed them to win the week the most anticipated HD title of the year was released exclusively on HD DVD 51:49

Now another one of the top 4 movies comes out exclusively on HD DVD and Blu-ray wins 66:34, smongst some top titles coming out for the PS3 as well. That's perfectly sad for HD DVD regardless of sales.

Spidey comes out - 71:29.

Not winning a single week's worth of sales in 2007 will be a huge black eye in HD DVD PG's face who claimed over three million players in homes this year, then 1.8 million, then 1 million and now they'll be lucky to hit 750,000. The weel will end with some more big weeks for Blu-ray like the Dec 4th week and Blu-ray will look like the obvious choice to any CE thinking about making a player in 2008, thanks to Toshiba pricing everyone out of HD DVD hardware.

The future is very clear right now, very clear.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

I don't understand why there is any gloom over another 2:1 week. If brand X sells one thousand units a week and brand Y sells twice that, after one week X has sold 1000 and Y has sold 2000; after a month, X=4000 while Y=8000; after 52 weeks, X=52000 and y=104000. The longer the margin remains, the larger the difference between the real numbers get, and the more difficult it is for HD-DVD to ever catch up.

they don't need to catch up. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format

you can't use that logic in this case. the wii and 360 are killing the ps3. does that mean we should expect sony to give up on the ps3?

[sj001]

Originally Posted by xtop

they don't need to catch up. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format

you can't use that logic in this case. the wii and 360 are killing the ps3. does that mean we should expect sony to give up on the ps3?

Actually, the longer these margins stay this way, the more likely companies like WB will side with BD. BD has time on it's side, it didn't cut it's feet off with their hardware prices, the BD market will be loaded with players by the beginning of the year. They are into all aspects of the market, HD-DVD can only sustain this for so long. What is happening in Europe and Japan also speaks volumes, and cannot be ignored.

While the 360 and Wii may be beating the PS3, well, I won't count the Wii, but the PS3 sales trend is equivalent to the 360, just a year behind, with the recent price cuts, the PS3 will begin outselling the 360.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by jon s

my concern is this. Even with releases of Spiderman, Ratatouille and DieHard (i know the stats for diehard are still not out yet) and the lack of big titles on the HD-DVD side, sales are still 66:34. i would have expected that blu-ray would have clobbered hd-dvd in these weeks but this not been the case. Could the increase in sales of hd-dvd players have increased the sales of hd-dvd discs to compensate for the blu-ray titles?

And HD's side has Transformers and Shrek 3....vs Ratatouille and Spiderman 3 from your list (since Diehard has yet to be released).

Essentially you have pretty equal title strength and Blu is winning 2:1.....that is a disappointment?

I'm not going to guess the sales ratio anymore because the numbers are being completely bombarded by these "free" movies with the purchase of a highdef player. Both sides are now doing it (but I believe HD was the first to do it......it's why Heroes jumped to the top of the charts a couple weeks ago).

Basically, you've had equal number of heavy hitters and still hold a 2:1 ratio. If Die Hard comes out and you see a drop in the 2:1 ratio of sales, yeah I would be a little disappointed but again keeping in mind these free movies are throwing the entire ratio out of whack.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by xtop

they don't need to catch up. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format

you can't use that logic in this case. the wii and 360 are killing the ps3. does that mean we should expect sony to give up on the ps3?

Really? VHS is still "sticking around" too.

What you can't compare is a home media format war with a gaming console war.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Really? VHS is still "sticking around" too.

What you can't compare is a home media format war with a gaming console war.

it is? i haven't seen a vhs for sale..or rent for that matter..anywhere. nice try tho

and yes..you can. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format. take your bias loyalty aside for a minute and look at the big picture. i'm not trying to fight here, but you have to realize that hd dvd isn't going anywhere. sure its getting slammed in other territories, but thats not gonna make a difference in the usa

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

I don't understand why there is any gloom over another 2:1 week. If brand X sells one thousand units a week and brand Y sells twice that, after one week X has sold 1000 and Y has sold 2000; after a month, X=4000 while Y=8000; after 52 weeks, X=52000 and y=104000. The longer the margin remains, the larger the difference between the real numbers get, and the more difficult it is for HD-DVD to ever catch up.

lol I'm more confused why people are disappointed when HD's side releases a $300+ million boxoffice movie vs NOTHING on BR side and they still win 2:1.

If people cheered and partied because Transformers was beat by 51:49 (which was a $300+ million boxoffice movie as well) why suddenly is it like someone died when you win 66:34 against another $300+ million boxoffice movie?

Not only did they win the week 2:1 but they did it without an exclusive title to combat Shrek 3. Judging by this I hope this means next weeks numbers are in the 70's (maybe 80's) for Blu-ray because the releases are just ENORMOUS: Die Hard (1-4), Hairspray, Santa Claus 3, and Rescue Dawn. HD side has..........

If Bluray can win 2:1 with no releases imagine having 4 boxoffice movies (exclusive) vs ZERO boxoffice movies for HD.

[xtop]

well everyone was expecting big numbers with ratatouille, and that never happened. blu-ray isn't pulling away like it should. thats my only point

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Really? VHS is still "sticking around" too.

What you can't compare is a home media format war with a gaming console war.

Precisely! Different markets there xtop. Multiple gaming consoles is the norm for the gaming market. With the home video market, this is especially NOT the case, where you always see one format triumph, and I dare say this is due to simplicity to the end consumer. They simply want something that will work, and play ALL content, in ONE format. With Beta vs. VHS, we got VHS. With DIVX vs. DVD, we got DVD. With Blu-ray vs. HD DVD, we're going to get Blu-ray. No doubt about it.

The question is, why do you think HD DVD will buck this trend?

[xtop]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

The question is, why do you think HD DVD will buck this trend?

i'm not saying hd dvd will win, i don't think that'll ever happen. i do however think, at this 60:40 pace, we'll go dual format. for some reason people think that thats enough of a win to make hd dvd studio's switch sides, but i don't believe it

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by xtop

it is? i haven't seen a vhs for sale..or rent for that matter..anywhere. nice try tho

and yes..you can. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format. take your bias loyalty aside for a minute and look at the big picture. i'm not trying to fight here, but you have to realize that hd dvd isn't going anywhere. sure its getting slammed in other territories, but thats not gonna make a difference in the usa

I believe he was being sarcastic.

Also, aside from bias, the home video market history goes against what you are proclaiming here. Just a simple note.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by xtop

i'm not saying hd dvd will win, i don't think that'll ever happen. i do however think, at this 60:40 pace, we'll go dual format. for some reason people think that thats enough of a win to make hd dvd studio's switch sides, but i don't believe it

Toshiba seems to think that dual-format is the way to go too. It will never happen, even with this trend maintained, as I said before, time is on BD's side. They have the infrastructure, and the sales, I betcha one of the studios will buckle next year, mark my words.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by xtop

it is? i haven't seen a vhs for sale..or rent for that matter..anywhere. nice try tho

and yes..you can. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format. take your bias loyalty aside for a minute and look at the big picture. i'm not trying to fight here, but you have to realize that hd dvd isn't going anywhere. sure its getting slammed in other territories, but thats not gonna make a difference in the usa

I think you guys need to release it's not completely up to the consumers. Saying HD is going to be around and it's going to be dual format because it can stay close (2:1).....you have to realize retailers ARE NOT going to continue to support both after next year. As you get more consumers and you expand the sections it becomes impossible to support both. Why else do you think Warner was saying they want to choose one format eventually?

Wal-mart was going to choose one side months back but Toshiba "convinced" them to wait. Most retailers are not going to "wait" for HD to get better. If they consistently lose in the sales department like this year, by 4th qtr next year you'll see a lot of retailers dump HD. Specially if Warner goes exclusive OR Universal starts making Bluray.

[Jim L]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

Essentially you have pretty equal title strength and Blu is winning 2:1.....that is a disappointment?

Right!

And the Nielsen numbers have yet to show the effect of big Blu-ray exclusives:

• Die Hard 4
• Pirates of the Carribean 3
• The Simpsons Movie
• SuperBad

Plus a Warner "catch-up" exclusive (Terminator 3) and then the Warner blockbuster Potter series.

Next year's lineup is already looking really good.

I too wished we were at 80:20 right now, but we are still in very good shape. I would rather be in Blu's position than DUD's.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

I believe he was being sarcastic.

Also, aside from bias, the home video market history goes against what you are proclaiming here. Just a simple note.

i appreciate your view.

but..things can and do change nobody knows either way, but its all interesting to ***** about

[sj001]

Retailers seem to be slowly picking a side anyways, the shelf space kind of tells the whole story, 'nuff said.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by sj001

Toshiba seems to think that dual-format is the way to go too. It will never happen, even with this trend maintained, as I said before, time is on BD's side. They have the infrastructure, and the sales, I betcha one of the studios will buckle next year, mark my words.

well i'll give you this much. whoever gets wb..likely will get what they want

[WickyWoo]

No chance

The gaming market can support 3 consoles at retail for one reason: Back catalog is virtually non-existant

A handful of titles for each console are kept in print perpetually (greatest hits, platinum, whatever). 95%+ are run once and then gone forever.

At least 2/3 of a studio's released catalog are kept in print at any one time, and a single studio has more titles than all the SKUs released on all 3 systems last generation. Once HD Media fills its first aisle at most Best Buys, they will make a choice which one starts losing racks, and that will be the end of it

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by xtop

they don't need to catch up. the longer hd dvd sticks around, the more likely we'll go dual format

you can't use that logic in this case. the wii and 360 are killing the ps3. does that mean we should expect sony to give up on the ps3?

There is no mileage in comparing the HDM market to the console market. Consoles have always been a special case ever since Sony took the loss leader path with the PS2.

Also you have to take into account exclusive games and each of the console manufacturers own games studios. For example Sony Worldwide Studios is the single biggest studio in the world and they will only ever release games for the Playstation brand. Same goes for Nintendo, they have an absolutely humoungous in-house development branch, while MS will struggle to make anything beyond Halo. Which is why we have MS going out and paying $50m, $100m etc... for exclusive games or taking the exclusivity away from the PS3, GTA4 style. Some of the biggest games coming out on each platform are made by Sony, Nintendo or MS, look at Gran Turismo, Halo or Mario as the best examples.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by xtop

well everyone was expecting big numbers with ratatouille, and that never happened. blu-ray isn't pulling away like it should. thats my only point

Just like Family titles struggled on DVD initially, it's the exact same with highdef. I meet with my Disney sales rep a couple weeks ago and she even conceded that family titles are not that popular on highdef at the moment (which is why you don't see day/date on titles like Jungle Book).

Now if Die Hard fails to move the needle, yeah that is more news than Rat. failing to take Bluray to 70%+.