81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Elandyll]

What most HD DVD fans fail to realize is that time works for Blu Ray as well.

Toshiba is placing itself in a corner where it will soon can do little to make itself look more appealing (prices already very low bordering on free, giving out boat loads of movies)...
On the other hand, Blu Ray has -tons- of room to make sale/marketing moves. And when the time is right, and the prices do come down to mass market, it's going to be a slaughter (of HD DVD that is).

[cawgijoe]

Originally Posted by Elandyll

What most HD DVD fans fail to realize is that time works for Blu Ray as well.

Toshiba is placing itself in a corner where it will soon can do little to make itself look more appealing (prices already very low bordering on free, giving out boat loads of movies)...
On the other hand, Blu Ray has -tons- of room to make sale/marketing moves. And when the time is right, and the prices do come down to mass market, it's going to be a slaughter (of HD DVD that is).

The only reason HD DUD is doing anything right now is due to the cheap-ass US consumer.

We all want something for nothing.....the garage sale find....the best deal......what's keeping HD DUD floating is the initial attractive cheap HW price. Blu-Ray players will get down to the $200 range in time, but less artificially then HD DUD.

[CptGreedle]

I can't help but feel that HD-DVD has already lost. I mean in the international market, it is barely alive. In the US, it is still loosing but it has the greatest following. If this is the best HD-DVD has to offer, I really really REALLY think they should do the rest of the world (and the US consumer) a favor and DROP the damn dead format!
HD-DVD already maxed-out is potential, and is trying desperately to look more appealing. The 51 GB disc, we have the 100 GB and the 200 GB discs; they drop their prices, they loose manufacturers while BD still outsells HD-DVD in number of discs; they use FUD and spin and misinformation, BD uses facts and sources.
HD-DVD is already dead, its about time the BDA announced this to the world with the market numbers behind it.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by cawgijoe

The only reason HD DUD is doing anything right now is due to the cheap-ass US consumer.

We all want something for nothing.....the garage sale find....the best deal......what's keeping HD DUD floating is the initial attractive cheap HW price. Blu-Ray players will get down to the $200 range in time, but less artificially then HD DUD.

I think we are seeing that price point is more important then we originally thought versus content. I give 2 reasons!!

1. The recent orders to Forworld for blu units for Europe (Presumably cheaper units)

2. The amount of people (including on this forum) who went purple because of the $99 firesale. If our own people are buying these units, why wouldn't uneducated avg joe's NOT buy them?????

Toshiba is just proving the point that the price is as important as content. Nobody really care's about 1080i vs p, its cost.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't betamax the technically superior format? ANd wasn't it also owned by SOny???

I don't think we are in trouble because of this because we currently have a GOOD lead, however I do believe this forces our hand at hitting the $199 price point.

[MrVorhees]

66:34 are great numbers for Blu-ray this week! Considering HD DVD's exclusive title 'shrek 3' was released this week, there you can see the difference between HD DVD and Blu-ray sales again!

If blu-ray unleashes a blockbuster the numbers are 70+ for blu-ray that week! but if HD DVD unleashes a blockbuster, they cannot even manage to win a single week with a tiny advance like 51+ !!

[CptGreedle]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

I think we are seeing that price point is more important then we originally thought versus content. I give 2 reasons!!

1. The recent orders to Forworld for blu units for Europe (Presumably cheaper units)

2. The amount of people (including on this forum) who went purple because of the $99 firesale. If our own people are buying these units, why wouldn't uneducated avg joe's NOT buy them?????

Toshiba is just proving the point that the price is as important as content. Nobody really care's about 1080i vs p, its cost.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't betamax the technically superior format? ANd wasn't it also owned by SOny???

I don't think we are in trouble because of this because we currently have a GOOD lead, however I do believe this forces our hand at hitting the $199 price point.

You are wrong.
Why. Cause what you said is right but that is not why it failed. Beta failed from lack of content, lack of record-ability, lack of space/storage, lack of support.
The BETA MAX war has NOTHING to do with this war! They are completely different! Please do not compare the two.


The BDA already said they are content at the position they are in now. They do not want to lower prices more cause they do not need to be that low. Toshiba dropped theirs cause they are desperate. But BD players are better quality and they show the world that this is a true HD player, not a mock-HD or partially-HD player. They feel the price is right, for now, and it will drop more later. But for now the manufacturers do not want to loose the money per unit that Toshiba is loosing on their players.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

You are wrong.
Why. Cause what you said is right but that is not why it failed. Beta failed from lack of content, lack of record-ability, lack of space/storage, lack of support.
The BETA MAX war has NOTHING to do with this war! They are completely different! Please do not compare the two.


The BDA already said they are content at the position they are in now. They do not want to lower prices more cause they do not need to be that low. Toshiba dropped theirs cause they are desperate. But BD players are better quality and they show the world that this is a true HD player, not a mock-HD or partially-HD player. They feel the price is right, for now, and it will drop more later. But for now the manufacturers do not want to loose the money per unit that Toshiba is loosing on their players.

My point was just to show that just because it is better, it doesn't mean it will win in the betamax comparison. Many articles have stated that VHS was cheaper, and that is what carried it.

Regarding the BDA's stance on pricing, standard DVD players were in the $200 price range within two xmas seasons. I remember unboxing our first demo unit at best buy years ago as the video manager. It was a pioneer unit for about $999 in the fall. We didn't even have a disc for it yet. A customer bought one (It was a james bond flick) on the west coast before he even had a unit. I let him bring it in so we could ALL see it. We only sold a few of these during that first xmas. By the following xmas, they hit $199 and people were buying them up like crazy.

So, we are now in the 2nd xmas. I can appreciate that the sony's, samsungs, want to let the price come down slower, but as you can see, Toshiba found the sweet spot at $199 for a perfect xmas gift. Yes, it is sooner that we would like, but Toshiba is desperate and played this card so we all have to respond.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

So, we are now in the 2nd xmas. I can appreciate that the sony's, samsungs, want to let the price come down slower, but as you can see, Toshiba found the sweet spot at $199 for a perfect xmas gift. Yes, it is sooner that we would like, but Toshiba is desperate and played this card so we all have to respond.

I'm pretty sure $199 prices on DVD players didn't really hit until the third christmas season. I remember, because I waited until spring 2000 to buy one and that's when it was $200. I remember that when the PS2 came out, it was still competitively priced as a DVD player, and that didn't hit until year 2000...and it cost $300.

I think you've got the pricing on DVD players shifted ahead by a year.

[Joe Cain]

If $199 players show sufficient impact on software sales, I'm reasonably confident the BDA will come up with an appropriate response; they haven't fallen to HD-DVD yet.

The comparison between Beta and BD would be a lot more apt if BD retained its current bandwidth advantage over HD-DVD but was constrained by 15GB disc size limit which would require flipping to get through feature-length films.

[greekjgg]

Im pretty sure $199 prices on DVD players didn't really hit until the third christmas season. I remember, because I waited until spring 2000 to buy one and that's when it was $200. I remember that when the PS2 came out, it was still competitively priced as a DVD player, and that didn't hit until year 2000...and it cost $300.

I think you've got the pricing on DVD players shifted ahead by a year.

Nah, I'm pretty close, by 2000 I was a sales manager in a new store, I remember the first xmas, we only had about 7 total units all on one endcap with a special display, you pressed a button for each one you wanted to hear. By the next xmas ($200), we took out all the vcr's and put the dvd players there and relocated our vcr units.

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

The comparison between Beta and BD would be a lot more apt if BD retained its current bandwidth advantage over HD-DVD but was constrained by 15GB disc size limit which would require flipping to get through feature-length films.

Again, I'm not comparing the technical specs of these formats, merely pointing out that although Beta was "technically" superior, it lost out to the cheaper solution. Lets not discect or look into this too much?

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Again, I'm not comparing the technical specs of these formats, merely pointing out that although Beta was "technically" superior, it lost out to the cheaper solution. Lets not discect or look into this too much?

Fine. I'm not comparing the technical specs of HD-DVD-v-BD either. I'm saying that the constant reliance on the Beta-lost-to-cheaper-VHS argument is spurious because it doesn't take into account Beta's limited record time. In the current format war, unlike Beta-v-VHS, the cheap format is the one with content limitations.

[Elandyll]

Again, I'm not comparing the technical specs of these formats, merely pointing out that although Beta was "technically" superior, it lost out to the cheaper solution. Lets not discect or look into this too much?

The situations are so different that it is rather pointless to compare them
While Betamax was (slightly) technically superior, it had some inconvenients as well, the most often cited being short recording time (60mn vs up to 3H for VHS). While Sony was working to adress this, VHS improved their format (reportedly using some tech secrets let out by the Betamax supporters), and through smart marketing it was pretty much over before Betamax could catch up on recording length (everything was being played on recording Length and accessorily price from the consumer point of view). It is also sometime argued that Pron played a role, but generally admitted that by the time VHS pron was largely available the "war" had already been lost.
It had been mostly due to: Can I record my favorite films on TV? my 2 hour long school show where my kid is showing? and the 1h30mn+ long football match where my kid is kicking butts?

Beta vs VHS was a totally different problem than HD DVD vs Blu. If anything, Blu with its superior recording capacity (and Blu Ray burners are actually available), larger CE adoption and similar or inferior software pricing looks more to be in the position of VHS than HD DVD (not talking quality here, only market adoption).

This comparison is what HD DVD fans like to do in general to advocate that "Sony always loses format wars". I generally like to point at the Audio CD, UMatic and Betacam formats among others in those cases

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Fine. I'm not comparing the technical specs of HD-DVD-v-BD either. I'm saying that the constant reliance on the Beta-lost-to-cheaper-VHS argument is spurious because it doesn't take into account Beta's limited record time. In the current format war, unlike Beta-v-VHS, the cheap format is the one with content limitations.

My final response to the beta max discussion: The public PERCEPTION was that Beta was better and VHS was cheaper, and VHS won out. THat is it!! End of story!! Let it alone!!

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

My final response to the beta max discussion: The public PERCEPTION was that Beta was better and VHS was cheaper, and VHS won out. THat is it!! End of story!! Let it alone!!

Okay, apart from the fact that it's inaccurate and oversimplified, what does that have to do with the current situation? BD is better, more expensive, and winning. So...?

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Okay, apart from the fact that it's inaccurate and oversimplified, what does that have to do with the current situation? BD is better, more expensive, and winning. So...?

Many, many posts ago before the long digression someone made the silly statement that blu will win because it is technically better. I was merely pointing out that his statement had no substance based on the betamax vhs outcome. That it will take more then technical superiority to win this war.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Many, many posts ago before the long digression someone made the silly statement that blu will win because it is technically better. I was merely pointing out that his statement had no substance based on the betamax vhs outcome. That it will take more then technical superiority to win this war.

"More" like a larger install base, higher software sales, more manufacturing support, and more studio support?

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

"More" like a larger install base, higher software sales, more manufacturing support, and more studio support?

Exactly!

[HK-48]

I'm so happy with the numbers! This was supposed to be one of their better weeks with one of their three big-name exclusives (Transformers, Shrek, Bourne). Now they only have Bourne, while we have Pirates, Simpsons, Rush Hour 3 and many more!

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by HK-48

I'm so happy with the numbers! This was supposed to be one of their better weeks with one of their three big-name exclusives (Transformers, Shrek, Bourne). Now they only have Bourne, while we have Pirates, Simpsons, Rush Hour 3 and many more!

No matter how they spin it, last week result's were great news for Blu-ray owners. I don't want to get my hopes up, but...this Friday's numbers could be huge...building on the 66-34 lead Blu-ray released Die Hard 4, The Hardhard Trilogy, and Hairspray. While HD dVD relased star trek season 1. BIG advantage for blu-ray. We will see come Friday

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by BlueNeon

No matter how they spin it, last week result's were great news for Blu-ray owners. I don't want to get my hopes up, but...this Friday's numbers could be huge...building on the 66-34 lead Blu-ray released Die Hard 4, The Hardhard Trilogy, and Hairspray. While HD dVD relased star trek season 1. BIG advantage for blu-ray. We will see come Friday

Exactly. We have worriers on this site, especially regarding weeks like this one with few new titles out; but you gotta believe there are far more reasons for worriers elsewhere because they can't even beat us with their best shot. On a week like last, it could be really ugly--for them.

-Greg