Ask questions to The Digital Bits team (Bill Hunt, Jeff Kleist et.al.)

[Jeff Kleist]

What one Universal does, the others don't necessarily do. They may as well be different companies

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

This issue is a popular trend right now, just like in the mainstream media where consumers "don't care" about 3D. Just like 4 years ago they "didn't care" about Blu-ray, and "didn't care" about HDTV before that

But, even now, wouldn't you say that both statements are still kind of true? Especially about Blu-ray?

Sure, almost 100% of TV's sold in the US now are HDTVs. Now part of that is because you simply can't buy one that isn't anymore. Adoption of them has also been influenced by the flatscreen technology - an LCD or Plasma TV is sexier, much thiner, lighter, and makes current DVDs look better.

A lot of people, especially with recorded content, are still watching SD on their HDTV's. So I think it's still true that a large portion of customers don't care about HD content even though they have HDTV's. While of course it's popular in some arenas (Sports, for example), quite a few consumers are just happy with SD even on their HDTV's.

When it comes to Blu-ray, average consumers still really don't care about it or the HD experience it provides. The percentage of the home video market has been pretty stagnant over the past year. 85-90% of what is sold each week is still on DVD and not Blu-ray, just as it was a year ago.

I don't mean to be Debbie Downer, because I love Blu-ray. The only content I buy on DVD anymore is SD TV Shows that won't see Blu-ray. I've noticed it in anecdotal ways in my real life when talking to people about Blu, and the numbers seem to back up the fact that people just don't care a whole lot. It feels like Laserdisc again - they know there is a better format out there, with better quality, picture, etc., but they just stick with what they have.

[Jeff Kleist]

When it comes to Blu-ray, average consumers still really don't care about it or the HD experience it provides. The percentage of the home video market has been pretty stagnant over the past year. 85-90% of what is sold each week is still on DVD and not Blu-ray, just as it was a year ago.

A year ago you didn't see spikes into the 40-50%s on a regular basis. Sales are still up signifignatly month to month over last year. With the popularity of stuff like Netflix and Hulu, and the black friday prices well under $100 this year, it's going to get a lot better than that next year the more stuff gets into people's hands. Once they have the players they'll buy the discs.

One of the big factors that mitigates the effect of PS3 on people actually watching BLu-ray in HD is how many of them are hooked up to SD and tiny (32 and under) TVs in bedrooms. Last time they polled I think it was under 50% were actually playing games in HD (and therefore not watching movies in HD either)

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

A year ago you didn't see spikes into the 40-50%s on a regular basis. Sales are still up signifignatly month to month over last year. With the popularity of stuff like Netflix and Hulu, and the black friday prices well under $100 this year, it's going to get a lot better than that next year the more stuff gets into people's hands. Once they have the players they'll buy the discs.

I think we are talking about different numbers. I'm talking the market share of home video sales that are DVD vs. Blu-ray. Looking at the last year, the numbers are pretty stagnant and they have never reached anything near 40-50%.

For the week Avatar came out, it did hit 22% of sales from Blu (week ending Apr 25, 2010). However, most other weeks it's somewhere between 9% and 13%, with a few odd weeks a point or two higher (excluding the Avatar fluke week, 16% is the high for this year, 17% for last year) or even lower (it's gone as low as 8% this summer, which is a past-year low.)

Looking at those numbers, Blu-ray has been pretty much the same, and certainly hasn't shown any real growth, much less the type of growth that was expected by Year 3 of the format. The week Avatar came out was a fluke, and even our fluke only got us 22% for that one week.

Like I said, not trying to be Debbie Downer, but those numbers show that average consumers still aren't latching on to Blu-ray in any significant way.

[DenonCI]

Originally Posted by BillieCassin

I think we are talking about different numbers. I'm talking the market share of home video sales that are DVD vs. Blu-ray. Looking at the last year, the numbers are pretty stagnant and they have never reached anything near 40-50%.

For the week Avatar came out, it did hit 22% of sales from Blu (week ending Apr 25, 2010). However, most other weeks it's somewhere between 9% and 13%, with a few odd weeks a point or two higher (excluding the Avatar fluke week, 16% is the high for this year, 17% for last year) or even lower (it's gone as low as 8% this summer, which is a past-year low.)

Looking at those numbers, Blu-ray has been pretty much the same, and certainly hasn't shown any real growth, much less the type of growth that was expected by Year 3 of the format. The week Avatar came out was a fluke, and even our fluke only got us 22% for that one week.

Like I said, not trying to be Debbie Downer, but those numbers show that average consumers still aren't latching on to Blu-ray in any significant way.

The key is to look at sales on a per title basis (DVD versus Blu-ray), not overall sales for a given week. This is important because there are more DVDs released per week and Blu-rays, so that can skew the numbers. Blu-ray still has a long way to go to supplant DVD.

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by DenonCI

The key is to look at sales on a per title basis (DVD versus Blu-ray), not overall sales for a given week. This is important because there are more DVDs released per week and Blu-rays, so that can skew the numbers. Blu-ray still has a long way to go to supplant DVD.

Well, it depends on what conclusions are being taken from the numbers. I can see the value of looking at the percentage on a per-title basis, and those show what we already know (something like the recent releases of "Lost" or "Kick-ass" sells better on Blu than, say, "Nights in Rodanthe").

But when it comes to how many consumers are buying Blu-rays right now, the overall sales is the number I think is significant. Part of the reason may be the fewer titles available, sure, but that's kind of a chicken/egg scenario. If there was more demand for Blu, they'd release more...if they'd release more, they'd sell more.

In any case, the 85-90% of purchases that are DVD vs. Blu-ray hasn't changed much in the past year. Can't really blame the format war any more (it's been over for two years), so it really feels like apathy on behalf of the average consumer.

We've got some great titles coming this fall, but unfortunately I don't think they are going to help in terms of adoption. The two "biggies" coming out this fall are BTTF and the Alien films. Both box sets, both that sure you can get discounted at Amazon, but if, say Wal-mart or Best Buy stocks them, you can be sure people are going to look at them and go "Oh, nice, but I'm not dumping $100 on Alien movies, I can get them all on DVD for less than twenty bucks". The prices for box sets at those sorts of places is crazy, and it's going to reinforce the "Blu-ray is way more expensive" opinion.

Star Wars will help, but that's still over a year away. But I can't help that feeling for quite some time we are going to live the life of Laserdisc. I think the end result will be different (eventually Blu-ray will supplant DVD) because I don't believe virtual formats are going to take over for ownership (rental, yes, but not ownership), but if this is the type of progress we can expect to keep having, it will be like 2020 before we even hit 50% of total sales.

[Jeff Kleist]

The key is to look at sales on a per title basis (DVD versus Blu-ray), not overall sales for a given week. This is important because there are more DVDs released per week and Blu-rays, so that can skew the numbers. Blu-ray still has a long way to go to supplant DVD.

Correct. KickAss and I believe Lost season 6/Complete are recent examples (sorry guys, Lost is an anomoly). Iron Man 2 will probably follow. As was pointed out, there is way more coming out on DVD in the average week than Blu-ray. Catalog prices are going down, first week sale prices are going down to where the differnce in price is commonly $5 or less.

There's a huge segment of the population that has barely even noticed Blu-ray exists. DVD had its biggest sales between 3-6 years after launch in a boom economy. We've just rulled past year 4 with a format war and a massive recession I could go on for pages about how different the two market environments are. Will Blu-ray achieve the fast dominance of DVD? Hell no. Will it be as successful? Probably not. Will we continue to have a healthy selection, and ever increasing shelf space at most retailers, hell yes.

Star Wars will help, but that's still over a year away. But I can't help that feeling for quite some time we are going to live the life of Laserdisc. I think the end result will be different (eventually Blu-ray will supplant DVD) because I don't believe virtual formats are going to take over for ownership (rental, yes, but not ownership), but if this is the type of progress we can expect to keep having, it will be like 2020 before we even hit 50% of total sales.

I'm pretty sure that they only ever sold (grand total), around 10 million laserdiscs, so just a few titles worth of sales are already more successful than LD ever was as an entire format. Your average LD at the height of the format did under 10,000 copies (LD gurus correct me if my memory is faulty, I have zero desire to bust on LD, they were awesome).

We've got some great titles coming this fall, but unfortunately I don't think they are going to help in terms of adoption. The two "biggies" coming out this fall are BTTF and the Alien films. Both box sets, both that sure you can get discounted at Amazon, but if, say Wal-mart or Best Buy stocks them, you can be sure people are going to look at them and go "Oh, nice, but I'm not dumping $100 on Alien movies, I can get them all on DVD for less than twenty bucks". The prices for box sets at those sorts of places is crazy, and it's going to reinforce the "Blu-ray is way more expensive" opinion.

Actually both BTTF and Alien are priced essentially the exact same ($99.99 and $59.95 I believe) as they were when they first came out on DVD.

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

Correct. KickAss and I believe Lost season 6/Complete are recent examples (sorry guys, Lost is an anomoly). Iron Man 2 will probably follow. As was pointed out, there is way more coming out on DVD in the average week than Blu-ray. Catalog prices are going down, first week sale prices are going down to where the differnce in price is commonly $5 or less.

There's a huge segment of the population that has barely even noticed Blu-ray exists. DVD had its biggest sales between 3-6 years after launch in a boom economy. We've just rulled past year 4 with a format war and a massive recession I could go on for pages about how different the two market environments are. Will Blu-ray achieve the fast dominance of DVD? Hell no. Will it be as successful? Probably not. Will we continue to have a healthy selection, and ever increasing shelf space at most retailers, hell yes.



I'm pretty sure that they only ever sold (grand total), around 10 million laserdiscs, so just a few titles worth of sales are already more successful than LD ever was as an entire format. Your average LD at the height of the format did under 10,000 copies (LD gurus correct me if my memory is faulty, I have zero desire to bust on LD, they were awesome).



Actually both BTTF and Alien are priced essentially the exact same ($99.99 and $59.95 I believe) as they were when they first came out on DVD.

BTTF cost $43 on release date at walmart in 2002. I remember that quite well.

Alien Legacy cost me around $85 when I got it in 2000, the year I got into DVD. The ALien Quad cost about the same in 2003. I was quite happy when the Alien Quad came out. I do remember being disappointed that Aliens didnt have a DTS soundtrack.

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

I'm pretty sure that they only ever sold (grand total), around 10 million laserdiscs, so just a few titles worth of sales are already more successful than LD ever was as an entire format. Your average LD at the height of the format did under 10,000 copies (LD gurus correct me if my memory is faulty, I have zero desire to bust on LD, they were awesome).

Yes, in no way was my comparison to Laserdisc meant to be a perjorative, nor was I comparing direct sales numbers. I was a huge fan of LD. The comparison is in terms of how the public views it. In this case, the similarities are the fact that people are aware of it, they are aware of the higher quality, but they feel (if it's true or not) that there is a price differential that makes it not a "value" for them.

When you are talking about the few new releases each week that mass retailers stock, often the price difference is around $5. But when you look around at the total selection these stores often have, the price differential between DVD versions and Blu-ray is quite a bit more staggering. "Breakfast Club" for $22.99, or out of the $5 bin for DVD. Those are the impressions a lot of consumers are walking away with. Sure, we all know over here that there will be a good sale on Amazon on titles like that, but if you just go by what you can find at Wal-mart, that doesn't happen often.

Actually both BTTF and Alien are priced essentially the exact same ($99.99 and $59.95 I believe) as they were when they first came out on DVD.

Well, as you said, comparing the DVD and Blu-ray market and the conditions is quite difficult because of the massive differences. Those were the MSRP of those sets on DVD, compared to the Amazon prices of those titles right now on Blu ($97 for Alien, $50 for BTTF). Those are going to be at least that much if not more at Wal-mart, only this time the existing versions will be right there too.

I'm 99% sure that the Alien films are on those "2 for 1" DVDs they sell for like $7 at Wal-mart these days. So that's $14 for four movies, or $100 for the same four movies on Blu. Everyone who comes to this site knows the releases will be a million miles from each other, but it's about appearances. Box sets are always overpriced on Blu at retail (the ones they actually get - like Star Trek movies or LOTR are usually a good $15 or $20 over Amazon prices), and that's the impression the consumer gets.

It seems we all agree that we have a long haul before Blu-ray begins to supplant DVD. That's the only real point I was trying to make. Consumers have not embraced Blu, and while the economy can be somewhat a factor, a lot of consumer spending on home entertainment is actually up (for example, video games). Just like the height of theatrical movie-going was during the Great Depression. Instead of taking an expensive vacation or expensive night out people are staying home with home media. Unfortunately, they just haven't caught on to Blu yet.

[Jeff Kleist]

Alien Quadrilogy still retails for $59.95 BTW You have to compare apples to apples.

If you'll notice both WB and Sony have recently announced SRP drops on catalog to $19.95 for a lot of titles.
And when DVD came out a lot of those VHS movies were in the same bins with the same price differentials. I was a video buyer at the time and I was stockin the same usual suspects in the $5.99-7.99 bins. And this Christmas you'll see plenty of $9.99 prices OR LESS

Notice how Best Buy has the $7.99 Blu rotating rack now? They're changing the selection every few weeks.

Ironically streaming is going to prove to be Blu-ray's killer app. Installing netflix in the players is the best thing they ever could have done for the format. Once people have the player, the average joe will be far more inclined to move.

Catalog sales will never be what they once were because for most people they were purchasing these titles for the first time, and people that don't care about quality aren't going to get excited about picking up most things for the second or third time.

[Shand754]

Jeff

Are you able to find out what the plans for the Shrek movies are on BD this year? The latest movie has not been announced yet.

Thanks

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

Alien Quadrilogy still retails for $59.95 BTW You have to compare apples to apples.

I'm comparing what the guy in Wal-mart looks at.

Alien Anthology - $139.99 retail, $97 on Amazon right now
Alien Quadrilogy - Retail $59.99, $34 on Amazon right now

...for reference.

But when Joe Sixpack walks into Wal-mart, he'll see two options - this box set of the four movies for $100 on Blu, or he can buy them in 2fer packs, $7 each (I verified this morning when I was there that yes, they are available that way). So $100 for four movies, or $14 for four movies.

Now, I get what you are saying - obviously those are bare bones edition versus a mega set. The point I'm getting at, though, is appearances. You and I know that this set has a ridiculous, crazy amount of special features. Joe Sixpack doesn't quite get that, and probably doesn't care. He buys movies to watch...movies. So he sees four movies on Blu Ray for $100, or four on DVD for $14. You know better. I know better. He doesn't, and walks away going, "Dang that Blu-ray is expensive".

I know things are changing. I follow this site, your site, every site I can find. But I'm not seeing anyone outside of the current Blu-ray enthusiast community really "getting" it yet. And those that get it...don't even seem to care. I hope it changes soon, I really do.

[Elvis Is Alive]

Regard HD and Bluray adoption -

I can't tell you how many people I've helped who have absolutely zero idea how to acheive receiving an HD source, even when they have an HD display. I seen quite a few setups where people are using composite cables with HD sources. Most "joe 6 packs" haven't ever heard of HDMI.

No wonder they can't see a difference with bluray. There are alot of educational obstacles to overcome.

[Doctorossi]

Originally Posted by BillieCassin

So he sees four movies on Blu Ray for $100, or four on DVD for $14.

Or even:

four movies on Blu Ray for $100, or the two he wants on DVD for $7.

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by BillieCassin

I'm comparing what the guy in Wal-mart looks at.

Alien Anthology - $139.99 retail, $97 on Amazon right now
Alien Quadrilogy - Retail $59.99, $34 on Amazon right now

...for reference.

But when Joe Sixpack walks into Wal-mart, he'll see two options - this box set of the four movies for $100 on Blu, or he can buy them in 2fer packs, $7 each (I verified this morning when I was there that yes, they are available that way). So $100 for four movies, or $14 for four movies.

Now, I get what you are saying - obviously those are bare bones edition versus a mega set. The point I'm getting at, though, is appearances. You and I know that this set has a ridiculous, crazy amount of special features. Joe Sixpack doesn't quite get that, and probably doesn't care. He buys movies to watch...movies. So he sees four movies on Blu Ray for $100, or four on DVD for $14. You know better. I know better. He doesn't, and walks away going, "Dang that Blu-ray is expensive".

I know things are changing. I follow this site, your site, every site I can find. But I'm not seeing anyone outside of the current Blu-ray enthusiast community really "getting" it yet. And those that get it...don't even seem to care. I hope it changes soon, I really do.

Here is another mistake you are making.

You are talking like those prices for BttF and the Alien Anthology prices right now are set in stone. Yes, they are $100 and $55 right now, but odds are VERY good those prices will drop by release date. Boxset prices have almost always dropped their prices on release week

I wouldn't be surprised if the Alien Anthology is being sold for $80 on release date, which would be about what the Quadrilogy cost on release week back in 2003.

BttF will probably cost $45 by then too which would AGAIN be inline with the price of the original dvd.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

Actually both BTTF and Alien are priced essentially the exact same ($99.99 and $59.95 I believe) as they were when they first came out on DVD.

Those prices are going to look extra expensive to alot of people since the economy is still in bad shape.

[Taffy]

Originally Posted by merrick97

Here is another mistake you are making.

You are talking like those prices for BttF and the Alien Anthology prices right now are set in stone. Yes, they are $100 and $55 right now, but odds are VERY good those prices will drop by release date. Boxset prices have almost always dropped their prices on release week

I wouldn't be surprised if the Alien Anthology is being sold for $80 on release date, which would be about what the Quadrilogy cost on release week back in 2003.

BttF will probably cost $45 by then too which would AGAIN be inline with the price of the original dvd.

I don't think "mistake" is the correct word to use in this situation.

BillieCassin makes an excellent point and illustrates that point quite well, i.e. J6P doesn't compare apples to apples. Rather comparisons are made between apples and perhaps oranges which could be substantially cheaper on any given week at the store.

Besides....if we're talking about j6P, well...he's already got whatever Alien movie he prefers on DVD and if he wants to see Alien movies in HD, just consult the TV schedule.

[DenonCI]

Billie has a point. For example, my Dad wanted to buy "The Dark Knight" when it was first released and he went to Best Buy. The DVD was $14.99 and the Blu-ray wass $26.99. He bought the DVD. Frankly, even if the price was only $5 difference, he would have probably bought the DVD because like most consumers, he's cheap!

[SpaceDog]

I think if studios were to meet these particular pricing expectations, they wouldn't have any incentive to make the blu-ray edition better. You'd get mediocre transfers and half-assed special features. You pay a premium for blu-ray because it's a PREMIUM product. If worse comes to worst, J6P will be dragged along by CE manufacturers discontinuing DVD players in favor of cheap Blu-ray players.
By that time Walmart and Best Buy will both have cheapie bins for blu-ray, and although day-and-date prices won't match, they'll still have a troll bin to work from.
Jeff's point is well made. When DVD came to popularity, VHS editions were most assuredly less expensive to buy. It didn't hurt DVD in the long run.

[Jeff Kleist]

I understand the point he's making. I'm just trying to show him that this is hardly a new trend.

The discs in the $7.99 bin paid their way a long time ago, and authoring for DVD is dirt cheap nowadays. Disney is the one who's way out of line here, and they're going to have to start dropping their catalog prices again. $39.99 is ludicrous for a 5,10 year old disc. The MBAs don't see it this way though, they figure they'll hook the "gotta have it now" crowd first and then just sale price the crap out of them shortly after to what they should be charging, or offer the combo deals that Disney is fond of. The problem is that in between sales and deals, they sit on the shelf at Best Buy for $40. Better to have half the sales and 2/3 the price in my book, I bet the raw dollars on equally good titles will pretty much break even or maybe a little better

I can't tell you how many people I've helped who have absolutely zero idea how to acheive receiving an HD source, even when they have an HD display. I seen quite a few setups where people are using composite cables with HD sources. Most "joe 6 packs" haven't ever heard of HDMI.

No wonder they can't see a difference with bluray. There are alot of educational obstacles to overcome.

Yup, they're watching SD sources on their HDTV, and the onest that have heard of HDMI typically only know that the guy at Best Buy tried to get them to pay $70 for it. Personally I'm willing to bet that most players would come with HDMI in the box at this point if the retailers didn't make such a killing off the ones they manage to sucker and would be very upset with them. People don't read manuals, How many people show up who haven't updated their firmware even though your average Blu player has giant orange pieces of paper that say "YO! UPDATE FIRMWARE!" at the top of the box?

I fully expect Alien to be $60-ish many times during Christmas, and BTTF to hit as low as $35. $10 per movie seems to be a price most people are willing to pay, and given teh uber deluxeness of Alien $60 is pretty fair.

Billie has a point. For example, my Dad wanted to buy "The Dark Knight" when it was first released and he went to Best Buy. The DVD was $14.99 and the Blu-ray wass $26.99. He bought the DVD. Frankly, even if the price was only $5 difference, he would have probably bought the DVD because like most consumers, he's cheap!

Yup, which is why people keep buying pieces of junk like Vizio. I hold my head in my hands at the people lining up to drop $3500 on a 72" Vizio TV with, when they could have 120" front projection, or a 60 inch Panasonic 3D plasma at those prices and actually have GOOD equipment. However $5 seems to be the magic price to where the people who actually care anything about HD are willing to bite ($10 on TV)

There's really nothing that can be done at this time about the $20-30 SRPs. many catalog titles will be $14.99 on the shelf this time next year. The big thing is to get what people see week to week, the first week sale prices into that sub $20 butter zone where the people who are interested and willing to do Blu-ray right now are willing to bite. Worry about the back 50% after we've captured the early and soon after adopter 30% of the population. Crawl before you walk.

Taffy, please go back to taping your stuff off TV and pirating, and leave this to people who actually buy discs. If you don't like it, why don't you go off and cry with Deadmeat, RDJam (wow, where'd they go when the paychecks dried up?), Lee Stewart and the other trolls? And don't play the innocence game, you've got a years long track record and most people are simply sick of you.