What if? (re:Paramount)

[jorg]

Originally Posted by reiella

Off hand, more like, Production Facilities are unable to produce #s necessary. Failure rate at said production facilities exceeds certain thresholds, etc.

Having a contract clause be dependant on 3rd party actions is ... awkward.

i see what u mean but no becuase all ps3 games are blu-ray discs rfom the ps3 best selling game has sold over 2 million copies in augest so there no issuse in the facilities and if failure rate u mean yeailds then insider have alredy said that both hd dvd and blu-ray have over 90% yeailds

[reiella]

Originally Posted by Alan Gordon

Let's say that Warner Bros. goes exclusive, as does Universal. Production Facilities work on Paramount (and a few small studios) HD DVD, but nobody else. Yet, Paramount has no choice but to release to HD DVD because the production facilities are able to keep up with demand?

Blu-ray takes off... selling 1 million discs for D&D releases... HD DVD is selling quarter of a million for D&D releases. Paramount has no choice but to continue to support HD DVD because production facilities are able to keep up with the demand?

I think you had some good ideas regarding clauses in their contract, but surely DreamWorks/Paramount put other clauses into their contract to allow them to exit from exclusivity should HD DVD start circling the drain?

~Alan

Not so much my ideas but the comments from others who have said that sales numbers aren't one of the clause events.

The war will not end with a bang, but with a whimper.

[john_nemesh]

My take on how things will work out:

1. Warner will announce Blu-Ray exclusivity at some point after Jan 1st. (most likely CES)

2. Universal, seeing that Blu has gained momentum with WB backing blu, and with their exclusive HD-DVD contract having expired in Oct '07 will either shift to neutral or Blu exclusive.

3. Paramount will be the only one making HD-DVD for a while, then they will use whatever legal loopholes they have to backpedal out of an agreement that will see them selling next to nothing in HD for the next 15 months, and THEN switch back to Blu.


Basically Toshiba's bastard format is dead in the water right now, nothing they have tried (cheap players, chinese slave labor built players, boosting numbers by including XBOX, manipulating press releases, etc) has had ANY effect on the state of the game, EXCEPT to drag the war on longer. They have NO HOPE of ever "winning" the war, and are now destined to loose quickly, or drag this out until NO ONE WINS. This of course, is what Microsoft would love to see....less HD DISC players=more XBox Live Marketplace downloads!

Lets kick this pig and get it done once and for all! The sooner WB comes over to Blu the sooner this will all be over.

[john_nemesh]

Originally Posted by reiella

Not so much my ideas but the comments from others who have said that sales numbers aren't one of the clause events.

The war will not end with a bang, but with a whimper.

Well, if it is COSTING Paramount more than $150 Million to keep supporting HD-DVD, dont you think they would BREAK the contract? Either refunding the cash given, or, more likely, just break it and let the courts decide who is liable for what.

If I were in the business of selling things to make money, and someone offered me cash to NOT sell something, I would have to know that I was making more money taking the bribe than selling the product I wasnt supposed to. If that changed, I would be out of that deal so fast it would make your head spin!

[cartier]

Just because they are a publicly traded company does not mean that they have to disclose the terms of a contract. However, you must remember that most of what was reported regarding the payoff and time limit was done by The New York Times, the have to maintain their credibility, since they have not retracted I am willing to believe it.

There probably are several clauses regarding continued support. I am sure there is also a clause and associated penalty for early termination. However, if they can prove that staying with HD DVD exclusively was damaging / detrimental to them, then they could leave without penalty. That is unlikely as there are usually clauses that can be enforced to produce the desired effect.

[Barnum]

I can not believe how much this comes up. I am sure that most studios are not taking any of the HD formats very seriously since they sell what like 3% of total sales. To them it is more a test than anything else. If you think that Disney or any of the other company are rolling in the dough from either format you are dillusional. Sometimes I wonder if people on either side of this so called format war really like movies or just a format. Frankly I love movies always have and always will.

[muchaman]

Originally Posted by Barnum

I can not believe how much this comes up. I am sure that most studios are not taking any of the HD formats very seriously since they sell what like 3% of total sales.

Sure they are. DVD sales are slowing, and they want to keep those revenues. There will be a replacement to DVD, and it should be Blu-Ray.

[Barnum]

I am know seeing that both formats may fail since the vast mjority of people could really care less about HD anything, well minus TV. Everyone that I know says that there is nothing wrong with SD DVD and refuse to buy into a new format because of price. I look at both formats selling movies for 30, 35 or more dollars a piece. To many and starting to be me is unacceptable. I guess I am just a cheap bastard to some people but to me it is a waste of money. If it wasn't for B1G1 I would have nothing.

[Marcusarilius]

Warner WILL go Blu-ray exclusive in 08. Universal will at some point thereafter go at least Duel Format and eventually Blu-ray exclusive. Microshibamount will begin eating their entree dish of ash in 2008 and move to the main coarse in 2009. Just desserts will be had by these three soon after.

[Barnum]

We do not know that we can only guess and I don't like doing that. I guessed wrong with Paramont. I still think that prices are way to high to get the majority of people in the HD formats.

[Kirsty_Mc]

Originally Posted by Barnum

I can not believe how much this comes up. I am sure that most studios are not taking any of the HD formats very seriously since they sell what like 3% of total sales. To them it is more a test than anything else. If you think that Disney or any of the other company are rolling in the dough from either format you are dillusional. Sometimes I wonder if people on either side of this so called format war really like movies or just a format. Frankly I love movies always have and always will.

My Emphasis

And the reason for HD being minority formats. Answer: the format war.

As soon as there is only one format, HD media will really take off. Sales of HD flat panels in the UK are staggering, even with a limited HD television service. Just think of all them people eager and willing to see what their panel can do. The only thing putting them off is the thought of wasting a whole load of money.

It makes sense for the studios now to wake up, smell the coffe and make peoples minds up for them and support the most successful format. That is BD.

[UltimateFighter]

Why does everybody think WB will go Blu-Exclusive at CES 08? Has any insider said anything about this?

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by UltimateFighter

Why does everybody think WB will go Blu-Exclusive at CES 08? Has any insider said anything about this?

Yes.

[thebluemax]

I for one will find it difficult to ever support Paramount again.

[PrinceLH]

Originally Posted by Barnum

I can not believe how much this comes up. I am sure that most studios are not taking any of the HD formats very seriously since they sell what like 3% of total sales. To them it is more a test than anything else. If you think that Disney or any of the other company are rolling in the dough from either format you are dillusional. Sometimes I wonder if people on either side of this so called format war really like movies or just a format. Frankly I love movies always have and always will.

I've heard this argument being made during the last 6 months. First time, it was 1%, then 2%, now 3%. If this is so, then each time it moves one point, then they've sold double the number of disks, when it was 1%. That means momentum, considering DVD numbers are starting to slide. This is not a valid argument anymore.

[zipbags]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Yes.

Can you elaborate more?

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by thebluemax

I for one will find it difficult to ever support Paramount again.

Agreed. I will support Speilberg/Paramount movies, but my lame justification to myself is that I am supporting Steven because he supported Blu-ray and was the first director to do so. He is also a hero of mine for his unique talents and for bringing difficult issues to light. I WILL support SS 100%. The movies he directed for Paramount were a long time ago when studios only had the desire to make great movies and great profits. How times have changed...

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Yes.

I don't think any Insider here has publicly stated WB is going BD Exclusive. Penton-Man did say he was 100% sure WB would be releasing Blu Rays in 2008. So, this means they will at least remain neutral, but doesn't confirm they are going BD Exclusive.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by Esox50

I don't think any Insider here has publicly stated WB is going BD Exclusive. Penton-Man did say he was 100% sure WB would be releasing Blu Rays in 2008. So, this means they will at least remain neutral, but doesn't confirm they are going BD Exclusive.

I haven't heard anything definitive about WB going BD exclusive other than the stuff alluded to by the WB VP, and some other signs, but nothing definitive. I guess we can speculate all day, but probably will not know until the day they announce it... unless we get some real good hints dropped by Penton-Man or something.

[thebluemax]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Agreed. I will support Speilberg/Paramount movies, but my lame justification to myself is that I am supporting Steven because he supported Blu-ray and was the first director to do so. He is also a hero of mine for his unique talents and for bringing difficult issues to light. I WILL support SS 100%. The movies he directed for Paramount were a long time ago when studios only had the desire to make great movies and great profits. How times have changed...

Agree. The only films I will consider will be Speilberg's I'm quite happy with Michael Bay's stance so I may consider His films-but nothing else from Paramount will enter my home, ever.