81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Anthony P]

The rise in Planet Earth points to more player sales for HD DVD.

yes and no

1) it was included at some places with the player so there should be (for those places) a 1-1 correspondence

2) it is a title that played on the HD channel, is a combo and had been publicized on Oprah. That makes it an extremely popular title. I am sure many went to the store saw it and grabbed it for their DVD player. It is good for PE, but in the and does make good numbers for HD DVD, but in the end those that bought it by mistake won't do the same with other titles which is why it is so high on the HD DVD chart.

[Crackbone]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

yes and no

1) it was included at some places with the player so there should be (for those places) a 1-1 correspondence

2) it is a title that played on the HD channel, is a combo and had been publicized on Oprah. That makes it an extremely popular title. I am sure many went to the store saw it and grabbed it for their DVD player. It is good for PE, but in the and does make good numbers for HD DVD, but in the end those that bought it by mistake won't do the same with other titles which is why it is so high on the HD DVD chart.

I am going to correct you here. It's not a combo.

I doubt it had anything to do with a mistake in a purchase, more likely is that there is little to no competition across titles with HD DVD. Planet Earth is great demo material and lends itself to HDM quite well.

Planet Earth has had success on HD DVD simply because it's a great production and there isn't a helluva lot else to buy.

[Anthony P]

I totally understand your expanation and where your coming from but I do think that as a dis-service to blu, Warner will not so much be focusing on the years numbers as will they be looking at the Q4.

and the SI gap has widened in the 4Q, and most likely will widen a bit more before the end of the year.

[Anthony P]

I am concerned that the victory was closer then normal lately.

it was closer then normal because even though you can't comprehend this there were no enticing BD movies coming out this week. When a block buster comes out then the numbers jump, there were several extremely good weeks and so the numbers where high. But it is also those good weeks that tend to sell a lot of titles and why on weeks like this one the SI does not move but on weeks like the previous one it does.

I believe for blu to win, we need a blow out victory every single week.

that is dumb, it also depends on blow out some might say 58:42 is a blow out (which actualy means BD had from 58.0 to 58.99999999999999)
I know morons and HD DVD fan boys see 58:42 as almost the same but in reality it is around 1.5x better.

I think the last year is a wash, it comes down to the last 8 weeks of this year.

well the last year has brought the SI from an HD DVD advantage to a BD 62:48

It's basically cheap $199 players versus a stronger catalogue on blu now.

not at all. It is 200$ HD DVD players (which are now 2x100$ you could have paid a few weeks ago when only around 60k sold) vs many more BD players selling every week.

[Anthony P]

What the hell happened from March to April 07? Did HD DVD simply step up their game after realizing they were getting stomped on

two things Fox MGM/stopped releasing movies waiting for BD+
Universal realizing that HD DVD will never be secure started releasing again.

[Crackbone]

Warner will go BD if it's not a political decision or a cash grab. There's simply zero reasoning to go to HD DVD other than the points above.

[sj001]

I can't wait to see how many HD-DVD returns there are after X-Mas, I'm telling ya, that name will throw a lot of J6Ps off track, they will buy the disc, and when it doesn't work in there player return it pissed off. Hopefully it will leave a bad taste in their mouth for HD-DVD and they will go BD then.

[The Guardian]

Originally Posted by Crackbone

Warner will go BD if it's not a political decision or a cash grab. There's simply zero reasoning to go to HD DVD other than the points above.

Political? I would imagine they currently lean towards BD politically thanks to the whole Paramount/Transformers claim thing.

[Anthony P]

I am going to correct you here. It's not a combo.

you are right, my mistake

I doubt it had anything to do with a mistake in a purchase, more likely is that there is little to no competition across titles with HD DVD. Planet Earth is great demo material and lends itself to HDM quite well.

I have seen people returning HD DVDs they bought by mistake while I was at the store. Many don't know there is an incompatible format and think an HD DVD is just a high quality DVD meant for their HD TV

Planet Earth has had success on HD DVD simply because it's a great production and there isn't a helluva lot else to buy.

agree with that, it is a great production (that is why I bought the BD). It is also a good show piece. On the other hand it is not a "popular title/movie" and the HD DVD linup is not so bad to make it stand out that much. Lack of good titles and itchy to buy something could have made it a must for more people on launch day but it would not work for the rest.

[Steverhcp02]

greek,

Why does BD need to blow out HD DVD every week to assure victory....but HD DVD can ONLY lose 1.5:1 and be victorious.

I hate when people plead ignorance, just absolutely hate it. Just go away, you contribute nothing here. Its fine to be cautious, realistic or whatever you ry to portray yourself as....but when your logic and arguments simply make no sense, you have no place here for discussion or debate, imo.

I mean these 2 products are in direct competition, BD price WILL come down, its a given based on reality, thus, if BD is STILL winning inthe face of this hardware price it gives all indication to ANYONE WITHA BRAIN that it will only accelerate dramatically when it achieves better pricing normally rather than artificially.

My logic on why you are a troll and shouldnt be posting anymore says if WB sees almost unanimous CE support, more retail space, more movie studios AND significantly higher pricing with less free software to dupe folks into buying the hardware and BD is still winning certain weeks in hardware (see the % from the article post a few back) and winning every week in software sales....what does that say to them when the economics work themselves into lowering productiuon costs of players and replication of software prices?

Its like saying The New England Patriots are undefeated (Blu ray) and they go and add Shawne Merriman (WB) and Brian Urlacher (Lower retail prices) And then you have the Miami Dolphins (HD DVD) They have nothing......absolutely nothing left, they blew their load on Ricky Williams already (low player prices) and it didnt work out for them, then they overpaid for Culpepper to try to salvage the team (Paramount) oh no, still did nothing......what happens to the franchise eventually (HD DVD) they go winless because of bad GM moves and blowing money......now youre saying if the Dolphins win one game against teh Patriots, or if they play them and only lose by a TD it somehow shows the Patriots arent dominating....you somehow expect all football critics (The board ta WB) to give up on NE because of one game? Or one close score?

Play devils advocate all you want, but whne your logic and scenerios make no sense, greek, you cant whine when people call you out an dget frustrated.

[Anthony P]

Political? I would imagine they currently lean towards BD politically thanks to the whole Paramount/Transformers claim thing.

agree, I don't think there is as much today, but there was a time when a handful of top executives wanted it to stay HD DVD only until TW told them that their job is to sell movies and nothing else. Also even though I don't think Warner was happy about the Paramount BS, in the end I doubt they will make a decision based on that.

[JTK]

I'm hoping I see a time come real soon where I see BD leading consistently with 70-30, 80-20, and then never looking back.

[davidPS3]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

I think the Harry Potter numbers are the most important right now, they will show the state of the format war.

What numbers do people expect for Harry Potter

I agree. This will be a true test. Going toe to toe with the red team. Much like 300, we will see what kind of base we have vs. hd dvd.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Dave J

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6510883

Wow, all sorts of interesting stuff.

DisplaySearch predicts Black Friday trends will continue through the rest of the year. By the end of 2007, 678,000 HD DVD stand-alones will have shipped into retail since launch, it said. Blu-ray players will have shipped 461,000 units. PS3s will stand at 2.5 million units, and Xbox 360 HD DVD drive at 270,000 units.

80K or so HD DVD players sold in 2006, assuming 120K shipped, that would mean about 550K units sold in 2007. Compare that to the 1 million projection (down from 1.8 million, down from 2.5-3.0 million).

Still, these are small numbers, and Blu-ray isn't blowing HD DVD away in North America.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

that is dumb, it also depends on blow out some might say 58:42 is a blow out (which actualy means BD had from 58.0 to 58.99999999999999)
I know morons and HD DVD fan boys see 58:42 as almost the same but in reality it is around 1.5x better.

Let's not get personal.

As was pointed out before, without unit counts we can't fully interpret 58:42 or 72:28. But consider this:

The SI was 64:36.
The 72:28 (+8 for Blu-ray) moved it to 65:35.
The 58:42 (-7 for Blu-ray) didn't move it at all.

Hence, we know the numbers for Black Friday week were WAAY beyond last weeks unit counts (and we assume so from DVD's 77% week over week reduction too). So, the average over the two weeks could be 70:30.

Gary

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by sj001

they will buy the disc, and when it doesn't work in there player return it pissed off.

While I believe there will be many players returned, once the disc's are opened they are stuck with them. No retailer is going to return an opened title unles they swap it for the same thing because it's defective.


The retailer takes the hit themself if they return a title that is not defective.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Let's not get personal.

As was pointed out before, without unit counts we can't fully interpret 58:42 or 72:28. But consider this:

The SI was 64:36.
The 72:28 (+8 for Blu-ray) moved it to 65:35.
The 58:42 (-7 for Blu-ray) didn't move it at all.

Hence, we know the numbers for Black Friday week were WAAY beyond last weeks unit counts (and we assume so from DVD's 77% week over week reduction too). So, the average over the two weeks could be 70:30.

Gary

Originally Posted by Anthony P
that is dumb, it also depends on blow out some might say 58:42 is a blow out (which actualy means BD had from 58.0 to 58.99999999999999)
I know morons and HD DVD fan boys see 58:42 as almost the same

Let's not get personal.

That's right. There's no need to insult morons.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by Steverhcp02

greek,

Why does BD need to blow out HD DVD every week to assure victory....but HD DVD can ONLY lose 1.5:1 and be victorious.

I hate when people plead ignorance, just absolutely hate it. Just go away, you contribute nothing here. Its fine to be cautious, realistic or whatever you ry to portray yourself as....but when your logic and arguments simply make no sense, you have no place here for discussion or debate, imo.

I mean these 2 products are in direct competition, BD price WILL come down, its a given based on reality, thus, if BD is STILL winning inthe face of this hardware price it gives all indication to ANYONE WITHA BRAIN that it will only accelerate dramatically when it achieves better pricing normally rather than artificially.

My logic on why you are a troll and shouldnt be posting anymore says if WB sees almost unanimous CE support, more retail space, more movie studios AND significantly higher pricing with less free software to dupe folks into buying the hardware and BD is still winning certain weeks in hardware (see the % from the article post a few back) and winning every week in software sales....what does that say to them when the economics work themselves into lowering productiuon costs of players and replication of software prices?

Its like saying The New England Patriots are undefeated (Blu ray) and they go and add Shawne Merriman (WB) and Brian Urlacher (Lower retail prices) And then you have the Miami Dolphins (HD DVD) They have nothing......absolutely nothing left, they blew their load on Ricky Williams already (low player prices) and it didnt work out for them, then they overpaid for Culpepper to try to salvage the team (Paramount) oh no, still did nothing......what happens to the franchise eventually (HD DVD) they go winless because of bad GM moves and blowing money......now youre saying if the Dolphins win one game against teh Patriots, or if they play them and only lose by a TD it somehow shows the Patriots arent dominating....you somehow expect all football critics (The board ta WB) to give up on NE because of one game? Or one close score?

Play devils advocate all you want, but whne your logic and scenerios make no sense, greek, you cant whine when people call you out an dget frustrated.

1st off, I didn't plead ignorance.

I like your football analogy it's probably the best analogy I've seen in this format war, but you've assumed that WB is already blu exclusive in your explanation which isn't the case.

I'll explain myself using your football logic using the patriots as well. Most people have assumed that the patriots (bluray) will go undefeated and win the superbowl. Which based on CURRENT CONDITIONS is probably a correct statement. I believe that we are on track to win this war based off CURRENT CONDITIONS. Now, lets say Tom Brady (WB), gets knocked out of the game (WB going Red), what happens to their odds?

The biggest thing that New England had going for them for the first 10 games is that teams feared them because they TOTALLY blew their competition out of the water. Now, they've SQUEAKED by the last 2 games, and suddenly other teams don't fear them as much and they appear to be BEATABLE now.

Now, lets say Randy Moss is WB. After this year he is a free agent. New England isn't going to pay him like he's the best receiver in the game to keep him next year. So, If I'm Randy Moss, do I go play for a crappy team (HD) and pay me to make me the highest paid player? Or do I look at the potential to win another superbowl (format war) and sign with New England for a little less because they have the best chance to win the game?

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

1st off, I didn't plead ignorance.

I like your football analogy it's probably the best analogy I've seen in this format war, but you've assumed that WB is already blu exclusive in your explanation which isn't the case.

I'll explain myself using your football logic using the patriots as well. Most people have assumed that the patriots (bluray) will go undefeated and win the superbowl. Which based on CURRENT CONDITIONS is probably a correct statement. I believe that we are on track to win this war based off CURRENT CONDITIONS. Now, lets say Tom Brady (WB), gets knocked out of the game (WB going Red), what happens to their odds?

The biggest thing that New England had going for them for the first 10 games is that teams feared them because they TOTALLY blew their competition out of the water. Now, they've SQUEAKED by the last 2 games, and suddenly other teams don't fear them as much and they appear to be BEATABLE now.

Now, lets say Randy Moss is WB. After this year he is a free agent. New England isn't going to pay him like he's the best receiver in the game to keep him next year. So, If I'm Randy Moss, do I go play for a crappy team (HD) and pay me to make me the highest paid player? Or do I look at the potential to win another superbowl (format war) and sign with New England for a little less because they have the best chance to win the game?

fair enough except this quote. The thing about the WB situation.....the end isnt about a moral victory or championship as in football. The thing is a long term financial benefit. So, if Moss got a 1 billion dollar bonus for winning the superbowl, rather than a ring, would he take less money right now for the potential to hit a gold mine with the winning team? thats whats at stake.......long term financial benefits.....WB isnt a business that needs a quick buck. Thats why they have most likely turned down the offers from both sides....they dont NEED it, they see the situation as it is.

[greekjgg]

[QUOTE=Steverhcp02;400244]fair enough except this quote. The thing about the WB situation.....the end isnt about a moral victory or championship as in football. The thing is a long term financial benefit. [QUOTE]

I totally agree!! I use to think that we had this in the bag 4 months ago, but with Paramount switching, I now think anything is possible. I believe if Warner sits back and reviews the data, they will come to the proper conclusion of choosing blu exclusively. However, we don't know what other tricks HD has up their sleeve late in the 4q to pull off the upset. That is what keeps me on my toes and keeps me from totally thinking this game is already over as some of you have already presumed.