81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[olarmy96]

Well if the numbers hold-up, maybe I should retire from the guessing game and leave a Blu fan firmly entreched on top...

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 76:24


Code:
NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
olarmy96 76:24 1 0.00
Griddle 78:22 1 2.00

[Balian]

Here is a crude estimation for the week:

The Bourne Ultimatum (HD DVD) 100
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (HD DVD) 65
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (HD DVD) 10
HP Singles HD DVD 10
PE HD DVD 10
Transformers 10
Shrek + others 10
Others (BOGO Sale etc.) 100+
HD DVD Total = 315k+

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Blu-ray) 100
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (Blu-ray) 15
HP Singles Blu-ray 15
Lost + HSM2 + others 15
POTC3 45
Superbad 10
PE BD 10
Die Hard 4 + Box Set 10
SM3 10
Ratatouille 10
Others 50
Blu-ray Total = 300k
Ratio = 51:49

I might be overestimating HD DVD and underestimating Blu-ray a little bit. It will all come down to the BestBuy BOGO sale on Sunday. Both sides offer nice titles. It will be close!

[PS3Maniac]

Dave, I love your sig. That makes me think how fun it would be to have a deck of playing cards like they did with the Al Qaeda and Iraq guys except make it all the worst HD-DVD offenders both in the boardroom and on the boards.

[oldmike]

Originally Posted by Balian

Here is a crude estimation for the week:

The Bourne Ultimatum (HD DVD) 100
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (HD DVD) 65
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (HD DVD) 10
HP Singles HD DVD 10
PE HD DVD 10
Transformers 10
Shrek + others 10
Others (BOGO Sale etc.) 100+
HD DVD Total = 315k+

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Blu-ray) 100
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (Blu-ray) 15
HP Singles Blu-ray 15
Lost + HSM2 + others 15
POTC3 45
Superbad 10
PE BD 10
Die Hard 4 + Box Set 10
SM3 10
Ratatouille 10
Others 50
Blu-ray Total = 300k
Ratio = 51:49

I might be overestimating HD DVD and underestimating Blu-ray a little bit. It will all come down to the BestBuy BOGO sale on Sunday. Both sides offer nice titles. It will be close!

wow think a troll shows his true self

[Blu-Light]

Originally Posted by Balian

Here is a crude estimation for the week:

The Bourne Ultimatum (HD DVD) 100
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (HD DVD) 65
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (HD DVD) 10
HP Singles HD DVD 10
PE HD DVD 10
Transformers 10
Shrek + others 10
Others (BOGO Sale etc.) 100+
HD DVD Total = 315k+

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Blu-ray) 100
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (Blu-ray) 15
HP Singles Blu-ray 15
Lost + HSM2 + others 15
POTC3 45
Superbad 10
PE BD 10
Die Hard 4 + Box Set 10
SM3 10
Ratatouille 10
Others 50
Blu-ray Total = 300k
Ratio = 51:49

I might be overestimating HD DVD and underestimating Blu-ray a little bit. It will all come down to the BestBuy BOGO sale on Sunday. Both sides offer nice titles. It will be close!

good luck with that.

[GreenScar]

Originally Posted by oldmike

wow think a troll shows his true self

Balian is FAR from a Troll. He takes his licks over on HDD forum and fights the HD boys over there non stop.

[GreenScar]

By the way, Balian, your Avatar over there is way better than the one you have here, you should switch this one.

[Anthony P]

Hmm, can't seem to access the link. It appears I've been banned. (for a week). If these numbers are legit, I'll update my numbers until the beginning of the year. Can anyone confirm (1/07-3/25)?

just go back to HMM

[Anthony P]

I don't understand what you are saying. Potter is available on both formats, so what do you mean by Bourne having to outsell all of them combined.

I think he means that the 5 HP movies will sell well and the HP collection will sell well and Bourne will need to sell better then 5 movies and a collection

i.e. let's say 30k buy the individual movies and 20k buy the collection on HD DVD then you get 30*5+20=150+20=170 and if BD sells 1.5x that then it will be around 255 so Bourne will need to sell better then 85k

note: numbers are just as an example, not meant as a prediction nor are they based on any information.

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by oldmike

wow think a troll shows his true self

Balian is as blu as anyone I have seen. I have heard a similar crude prediction.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I think he means that the 5 HP movies will sell well and the HP collection will sell well and Bourne will need to sell better then 5 movies and a collection

i.e. let's say 30k buy the individual movies and 20k buy the collection on HD DVD then you get 30*5+20=150+20=170 and if BD sells 1.5x that then it will be around 255 so Bourne will need to sell better then 85k

note: numbers are just as an example, not meant as a prediction nor are they based on any information.

Yep, thanks Anthony, I got it now (he explained it too).

[BoneWSO]

For this week I'm guessing about 75-25 Blu because of POTC AWE and Superbad having great sales. Next week probably 60-40 Blu. I think most people will be spending their money on all of the HP movies since they have such a huge following and they will make great Christmas gifts for a wider range of people, Bourne will not sell as well on HD because it is not a movie that is high on special effects and really needing the HD treatment as opposed to the HP movies. It's bad timing releasing the movie on the same day as HP.

[spicynacho]

Originally Posted by oldmike

wow think a troll shows his true self

Bailian is mister
IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIII vs. O

BTW... Does anyone know how far transformers is from terminal velocity (the point where every current HD DVD owner has at least one copy)? It can only sell as many copies as HD DVD players coming on the market. Has to be soon, right?

Also...Am I the only one that is optomsitic that the high volume, 3:1 week will ratchet up the YTD or SI ratio a tick (or two).

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by oldmike

wow think a troll shows his true self

It is THIS week he is estimating (to be announced next week). And he's giving some rather positive numbers for Blu-ray.

45K for week two would be darn good numbers for POTC3. Notice that is only 20K less than his estimate for Harry Potter new release on HD DVD.

I think the estimate for HP OOTP on BD == Bourne Ultimatum is a bit unlikely. HP is a huge title. And an HD DVD BOGO is likely to EVEN things for others (versus 2:1). So:

The Bourne Ultimatum (HD DVD) 65
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (HD DVD) 80
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (HD DVD) 10
HP Singles HD DVD 10
PE HD DVD 10
Transformers 10
Shrek + others 10
Others (BOGO Sale etc.) 50
HD DVD Total = 245k+

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Blu-ray) 125
Harry Potter Years 1-5 Giftset (Blu-ray) 15
HP Singles Blu-ray 15
Lost + HSM2 + others 15
POTC3 45
Superbad 10
PE BD 10
Die Hard 4 + Box Set 10
SM3 10
Ratatouille 10
Others 50
Blu-ray Total = 315k

Ratio = 56:44 for Blu-ray

But, considering it will be a large drop from last week's numbers (to be announced on Friday), people will still worry.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I think he means that the 5 HP movies will sell well and the HP collection will sell well and Bourne will need to sell better then 5 movies and a collection

i.e. let's say 30k buy the individual movies and 20k buy the collection on HD DVD then you get 30*5+20=150+20=170 and if BD sells 1.5x that then it will be around 255 so Bourne will need to sell better then 85k

note: numbers are just as an example, not meant as a prediction nor are they based on any information.

And then you need to factor in the strong catalogue (from each side):

Blu-ray:
POTC 3
SM3
DH4
Ratatouille
(and a much better selling 'deep' catalogue

Vs.

HD DVD:
Transformers
Shrek 3
PE (Oprah edition)

Pretty feeble back up on the red side IMO.

I can see where Balian is coming from but I think he (and others) are underestimating the strength of the Blu-ray market and that it is growing rapidly as we speak.

This weekend will see very strong sales for hardware & software (penultimate weekend before Christmas) and I really do expect a comfortable Blu-ray win. Certainly above 60:40.

All IMO of course.

Oh, and this is a nice figure, if true (obviously not from Nielsen):

Also, consumers sailed away with an estimated 160,000 Pirates Blu-ray copies, according to sources, another indication of the title’s strength, sources say.

[mel2]

I think blu will still win 58:42. Then the week after with Simpsons and terminator 3 it will be back around 67:33.

[spicynacho]

BR only accounted for 2% of total POTC sales, I am kind of disappointed. I was hoping we could account for the 5% mark already.

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by spicynacho

BR only accounted for 2% of total POTC sales, I am kind of disappointed. I was hoping we could account for the 5% mark already.

Theres a format war going on. Not sure if you noticed =)

[talbers23]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

I'd say no higher than 64:36 for HP week.

I think well see about 68:32 for Pirates week.

ill take your guess on HP week but i really think you may see the pirates/superbad week get in the mid to upper 70's. they have sold so fricking many coppies and some of my frineds that rarley buy blu-rays but have the players got superbad so that is why im guessing what i am.

[quexos]

I predict that BD will win week handily 76%-24%. POTC At Worlds End will be the #1 title with Superbad a distant second. The #3 title for the week will be Planet Earth HD DVD selling even more copies than it did last week. Rounding out the top five will be SP3 and Transformers.

If Vaughn is serious, this is the biggest week of all year If I am not mistaken as the previous record was 74/26