81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers - Page 374 - Blu-ray Forum

kibbled_bits · 12-13-2007, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crackbone

I think you guys should be prepared for a close week this coming week. It's the only serious battle week left this year. HD DVD has a solid exclusive title and a good movie to boot. While HD DVD can't touch the BD install base, still 100K wouldn't be out of the question for Bourne. Amazon has a bogo all week for the DUDs...

I am thinking it's going to be closer to a split 50/50. However, I've underestimated the power of BD before.

I just don't want to see major panic around here if DUD pulls a win out of their asses. It could happen, so get out there and buy some discs.

I agree, I'm worried about this week. Everyone J&R has BOGO, pickup Blu-ray like it's going out of style: http://www.jr.com/JRSectionView.proc...romos/Movie03/

Is J&R included in Nielsons?

The Guardian · 12-13-2007, 02:20 PM

*Transformers* couldn't overcome a Blu BOGO with no big releases, and some people think Bourne (yes, a good movie, but not a great HD movie) plus a small HD DVD BOGO will overcome superior Blu Potter sales PLUS two other Day-and-date Blu releases PLUS Pirates3 residuals?

Yes, Bourne is sold out on HD DVD in some places. Because they ordered 10 copies. Some places are also sold out of HSM2 and Lost Season 3 on Blu... and they had more than 10 copies combined of those two.

greekjgg · 12-13-2007, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Guardian

*Transformers* couldn't overcome a Blu BOGO with no big releases, and some people think Bourne (yes, a good movie, but not a great HD movie) plus a small HD DVD BOGO will overcome superior Blu Potter sales PLUS two other Day-and-date Blu releases PLUS Pirates3 residuals?

Yes, Bourne is sold out on HD DVD in some places. Because they ordered 10 copies. Some places are also sold out of HSM2 and Lost Season 3 on Blu... and they had more than 10 copies combined of those two.

SO what is more important? I don't think we have anything to worry about regarding the week overall. BOGO's don't influence taking Bourne out of the top spot as all these misc titles aren't enough to take out one MAJOR title.

Bourne won't do Transformer numbers, Transformers appealed to both kids and adults. Bourne is an adult movie. This week really comes down to Bourne versus OOTP. OOTP is the newest title of the series. The benefit that HD has at this point is that their catalog is smaller and haven't had any must have titles in weeks.

The Guardian · 12-13-2007, 02:30 PM

I think the only real reason the week is the hardest ever to guess is because of the interplay between the HP Boxset and the individuals... it's been said HD DVD owners are more likely to buy individuals because they've been able to import some already? How many actually did that?

Anyway I see a Blu victory, probably in the mid to high 50's. But then again, I wonder how many free Panasonic players are being given away this week.... and the cheap Samsungs too? Hmm... So low 60's wouldn't surprise me either.

Blubaru · 12-13-2007, 02:35 PM

Has anyone seen the early numbers yet?

BluOgre · 12-13-2007, 02:56 PM

Is it just me or does everyone seem to be "worried" every other week?

Transformer week, everyone was worried (only justified one IMO) because it was the biggest title of the year and BR had NOTHING to combat it.

The next week, people were worried about residuals of Transformers with having titles like Mr.Brooks and Meet the Robinsons only on BR.

Then Shrek 3 week, people were worried (why I have no idea).

Week after Die Hard 4, people were worried because there was nothing releasing on BR.....it won 70+% lol.

Now two weeks later people are worried again when you not only have a HUGE BR title, Harry Potter but the first 4. You also have the teen sensation of High School Musical 2. I'm not intrested in that movie but judging by the amount of people that watched it on TV, it's going to move some product. Then you have residuals of Pirates. Why are people so worried about LOSING again? If anything HD has a chance to be in the low 40's but that it.

At some point you have to relax and look at the data for the past 3 months. Unless there is a miracle they are not going to win the week.

bhampton · 12-13-2007, 03:02 PM

I would agree,.. But the HD DUD'ers have been bogo hungry forever and bought heavy this week.

If J+R doesn't report to Neilsens then the BOGO over there could also be a problem because it's a great place to buy Blu this week.

-Brian

p.s.---By the way,.. if Blu Ray loses it really won't matter so much since they won every other weekk of the year and all indications are that HD DUD is history early next year anyway. It may just ease the suffering of the HD DUD morons if they can win a week and warm thier hearts for the last X-Mass they will have with HD DUD.

Proteus · 12-13-2007, 03:29 PM

Given the numbers in the VB article and box office sales I would be inclined to say that _at most_ bourne will do 75% of Transformers. We're talking 75k tops.

The BOGO is interesting; however, even the first BOGO week for Blu-ray (TF week) only showed, what, like 30-40k titles sold from it? Blu still won.

If Potter sells 1.6x or more on Blu as it does on HDDVD, which is typical (and lately a low ratio), that should just about make up for Bourne.

Finally, POTC3 isn't even close to done yet folks. That title is going to move _a lot_ of product. When you consider how many people bought POTC1&2 via the BOGOs and previously it is really a strong showing. Right behind 300 for totals on each I imagine. Most people do like to complete their trilogies regardless of the movies critical appeal. Didn't you want to see the end and what happened to Jack? Seriously.

This holiday is going solidly Blu's way. Read this thread:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...752#post411752

Right there folks tells you the _real_ state of HDDVD. Shareholders won't put up with that kind of loss for long and there is absolutely no 'break away' point in sight for HDDVD.

This war is over.

bluperch · 12-13-2007, 03:39 PM

Don't underestimate The Damon ... he has mad skillz. I think we smash Nielsen's this week 'cause of PotC + Superbad. But The Damon week is going to be tough. But I've been pretty much wrong with all of my guesses (I thought the Rat would be huge on blu).

Terjyn · 12-13-2007, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhampton

I would agree,.. But the HD DUD'ers have been bogo hungry forever and bought heavy this week.

HD-DVD has had several BOGOs with no discernible effect.

Transformers week they had a Paramount BOGO! I don't know why people so conveniently ignore that the Blu-Ray BOGO beat out not only Transformers but that too.

I don't know why people are so convinced that THIS BOGO will help tremendously when none of the other ones ever have.

Steverhcp02 · 12-13-2007, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terjyn

HD-DVD has had several BOGOs with no discernible effect.

Transformers week they had a Paramount BOGO!

I don't know why people are so convinced that THIS BOGO will help tremendously when none of the other ones ever have.

also isnt this one on amazon only.....whereas transformers week the more popular BD was EVERYWHERE. So, you have volumes for a BD BOGO EVERYWHER at 40 or 50k (is that what we estimated) i dont see how a sale on only amazon for HD DVD is going to inflate the numbers that much to be honest.

I still think people continuously underestimate the casual BD owner and brick and mortar stores. Lost, HSM will probably sell pretty well.

RUR · 12-13-2007, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blubaru

Has anyone seen the early numbers yet?

76:24. They're a couple of pages back.

sj001 · 12-13-2007, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RUR

76:24. They're a couple of pages back.

But after saying he was speculating, and being way off on the Pirates numers, could they possibly be higher?

GregBlu5 · 12-13-2007, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sj001

But after saying he was speculating, and being way off on the Pirates numers, could they possibly be higher?

You could be right. By saying he was "speculating," then he could take it all back if the numbers prove to be higher because he wasn't providing actual numbers this time around.

-Greg

P.S. Anyone got the latest link? The one at the beginning of this humongous thread still has the magazine from December 2nd.

blujacket · 12-13-2007, 04:13 PM

I don't know if I could watch Bourne Ultimatum again. That dude needs a tripod. That shaky cam action was tolerable on the first 2 movies, but the 3rd gave me a migraine.

quexos · 12-13-2007, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sj001

But after saying he was speculating, and being way off on the Pirates numers, could they possibly be higher?

I think he called these "his prediction" because he does not want to openly say that he is spilling the numbers before Friday. Besides Vaughn is rather on the red side of things so I don't think he'd give such a high number only to give us Blu boys the pleasure of finding the numbers are even higher. And I don't think he wants to lose his edge by spilling wrong numbers either so 76 / 24 seems the real thing IMO

SpikesBluBlooded · 12-13-2007, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregBlu5

You could be right. By saying he was "speculating," then he could take it all back if the numbers prove to be higher because he wasn't providing actual numbers this time around.

-Greg

P.S. Anyone got the latest link? The one at the beginning of this humongous thread still has the magazine from December 2nd.

Greg, typically they update the site on Friday's, around lunch time Eastern Standard Time (sorry for our family elsewhere in the world, don't know GMT off the top of my head). You can check it yourself by simply changing the date in the HTML and seeing if it updates. Just add 7 calendar days to the existing date. Hope this helped...

Blubaru · 12-13-2007, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RUR

76:24. They're a couple of pages back.

Sweet!

sj001 · 12-13-2007, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quexos

I think he called these "his prediction" because he does not want to openly say that he is spilling the numbers before Friday. Besides Vaughn is rather on the red side of things so I don't think he'd give such a high number only to give us Blu boys the pleasure of finding the numbers are even higher. And I don't think he wants to lose his edge by spilling wrong numbers either so 76 / 24 seems the real thing IMO

I don't know... 160,000 copies, with Superbad doing extremely well, is a TON of copies, I wouldn't be shocked if the numbers were better than 76/24.

Terjyn · 12-13-2007, 04:26 PM

76:24 is more than 3:1.

160k Pirates + 50k Superbad + 40k residuals would be 250k total movies, which would put HD-DVD at 80k sold. <-- made up numbers.

Seems fairly reasonable, especially with Planet Earth still doing very well.

People always harp on how Blu needs to improve the ratio, but it is HARD to make the ratio higher. It is not a linear function so each percentage is much harder than the prior percentage.

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12-13-2007, 02:20 PM	#7462
The Guardian Expert Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Kitchener, ON Blu-ray collection:9 Trading Score:1	Transformers couldn't overcome a Blu BOGO with no big releases, and some people think Bourne (yes, a good movie, but not a great HD movie) plus a small HD DVD BOGO will overcome superior Blu Potter sales PLUS two other Day-and-date Blu releases PLUS Pirates3 residuals? Yes, Bourne is sold out on HD DVD in some places. Because they ordered 10 copies. Some places are also sold out of HSM2 and Lost Season 3 on Blu... and they had more than 10 copies combined of those two.

12-13-2007, 02:30 PM	#7464
The Guardian Expert Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Kitchener, ON Blu-ray collection:9 Trading Score:1	I think the only real reason the week is the hardest ever to guess is because of the interplay between the HP Boxset and the individuals... it's been said HD DVD owners are more likely to buy individuals because they've been able to import some already? How many actually did that? Anyway I see a Blu victory, probably in the mid to high 50's. But then again, I wonder how many free Panasonic players are being given away this week.... and the cheap Samsungs too? Hmm... So low 60's wouldn't surprise me either.

12-13-2007, 02:35 PM	#7465
Blubaru Expert Member Member since:Oct 2006 Location:Tonight! you!	Has anyone seen the early numbers yet?

12-13-2007, 02:56 PM	#7466
BluOgre Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007	Is it just me or does everyone seem to be "worried" every other week? Transformer week, everyone was worried (only justified one IMO) because it was the biggest title of the year and BR had NOTHING to combat it. The next week, people were worried about residuals of Transformers with having titles like Mr.Brooks and Meet the Robinsons only on BR. Then Shrek 3 week, people were worried (why I have no idea). Week after Die Hard 4, people were worried because there was nothing releasing on BR.....it won 70+% lol. Now two weeks later people are worried again when you not only have a HUGE BR title, Harry Potter but the first 4. You also have the teen sensation of High School Musical 2. I'm not intrested in that movie but judging by the amount of people that watched it on TV, it's going to move some product. Then you have residuals of Pirates. Why are people so worried about LOSING again? If anything HD has a chance to be in the low 40's but that it. At some point you have to relax and look at the data for the past 3 months. Unless there is a miracle they are not going to win the week.

12-13-2007, 03:02 PM	#7467
bhampton Blu-ray Count Member since:Aug 2007 4K collection:989 Blu-ray collection:2545 DVD collection:67 Blu-ray reviews: 6 Trading Score:18	I would agree,.. But the HD DUD'ers have been bogo hungry forever and bought heavy this week. If J+R doesn't report to Neilsens then the BOGO over there could also be a problem because it's a great place to buy Blu this week. -Brian p.s.---By the way,.. if Blu Ray loses it really won't matter so much since they won every other weekk of the year and all indications are that HD DUD is history early next year anyway. It may just ease the suffering of the HD DUD morons if they can win a week and warm thier hearts for the last X-Mass they will have with HD DUD.

12-13-2007, 03:29 PM	#7468
Proteus Power Member Member since:Apr 2007 Location:SoCal PSN:CaptBurn	Given the numbers in the VB article and box office sales I would be inclined to say that _at most_ bourne will do 75% of Transformers. We're talking 75k tops. The BOGO is interesting; however, even the first BOGO week for Blu-ray (TF week) only showed, what, like 30-40k titles sold from it? Blu still won. If Potter sells 1.6x or more on Blu as it does on HDDVD, which is typical (and lately a low ratio), that should just about make up for Bourne. Finally, POTC3 isn't even close to done yet folks. That title is going to move _a lot_ of product. When you consider how many people bought POTC1&2 via the BOGOs and previously it is really a strong showing. Right behind 300 for totals on each I imagine. Most people do like to complete their trilogies regardless of the movies critical appeal. Didn't you want to see the end and what happened to Jack? Seriously. This holiday is going solidly Blu's way. Read this thread: https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...752#post411752 Right there folks tells you the _real_ state of HDDVD. Shareholders won't put up with that kind of loss for long and there is absolutely no 'break away' point in sight for HDDVD. This war is over.

12-13-2007, 03:39 PM	#7469
bluperch Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Lakewood, CO	Don't underestimate The Damon ... he has mad skillz. I think we smash Nielsen's this week 'cause of PotC + Superbad. But The Damon week is going to be tough. But I've been pretty much wrong with all of my guesses (I thought the Rat would be huge on blu).

12-13-2007, 04:13 PM	#7475
blujacket Blu-ray Guru Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Dayton,Ohio 4K collection:70 Blu-ray collection:658	I don't know if I could watch Bourne Ultimatum again. That dude needs a tripod. That shaky cam action was tolerable on the first 2 movies, but the 3rd gave me a migraine.

12-13-2007, 04:26 PM	#7480
Terjyn Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jul 2007 Blu-ray collection:122	76:24 is more than 3:1. 160k Pirates + 50k Superbad + 40k residuals would be 250k total movies, which would put HD-DVD at 80k sold. <-- made up numbers. Seems fairly reasonable, especially with Planet Earth still doing very well. People always harp on how Blu needs to improve the ratio, but it is HARD to make the ratio higher. It is not a linear function so each percentage is much harder than the prior percentage.

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