Videotape war VS Next Gen war

[181]

I was looking through Wikipedia and I came across this information. I'm sure some of you have read this but I wanted to highlight a few things.

1) The adult industry myth. According to Forbes, the adult industry had very little impact on the adoption of a long term videotape format. The bit about Sony banning adult content on Betamax is also a myth.

According to Forbes.com, adult video income is approximately $1 billion. "The industry is tiny next to broadcast television ($32.3 billion in 1999), cable television ($45.5 billion), the newspaper business ($27.5 billion), Hollywood ($31 billion), even to professional and educational publishing ($14.8 billion). When one really examines the numbers, the porn industry — while a subject of fascination — is every bit as marginal as it seems at first glance." [2]

2) Betamax was almost 100% in the lead then sales dropped dramatically to 25%.

Although Betamax initially owned 100% of the market in 1975, the perceived value of longer recording times eventually tipped the balance in favor of VHS. By 1981, U.S. Betamax's sales had sunk to only 25% of all sales.

3) It seems that consumers wanted longer recording times for a cheaper price. Picture/Audio Quality was not one of the reasons the majority of consumers based their decision on.

From the consumer perspective, buying a single 8-hour VHS tape for $5 is cheaper than buying two 4-hour Betamax tapes for $10.

What Sony didn't take into account was what the consumers wanted. Sony believed that having better quality recordings was the key to success, whereas it soon became clear that consumer desire was focused more intently on recording time and compatibility for easy transfer of information (Besen, 1994).

The question is how is this format war different? Home computers, consumer electronics, etc., didn't use videotapes to store information. These next generation discs will ultimately (I assume this is the intent) replace DVD's as a video medium and storage medium.

It is tough for Blu-ray to compete in a mass market where the price to quantity ratio favors cheap electronics that are "good enough". What I would like to see is a dirt cheap 1080i Blu-ray player with "good enough" picture quality and sound. Microsoft capitalizes on this fact and realizes if they can get enough decent quality HD DVD players into the market, it will be no contest. With enough money pushing Toshiba, they can take on the market.

Most people are waiting for a format to win since they probably remember the format war of the 1980's (the first of its kind). Will quality define this format war? What is the main factor in this war?

(Edit for clarity; changed "good" to "it's not such a bad thing". figured WB going Blu was obviously better)
It's not such a bad thing if WB holds out on declaring exclusivity. It may buy BDA the time it needs to lower prices and cut manufacturing costs so that when Toshiba/Microsoft no longer can drop prices, Blu-ray will be side by side with Blu-ray having the clear advantage at that point. Maybe that has already begun. Maybe they can but they aren't for some reason. Maybe BDA is timing price drops with WB.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videotape_format_war

[Geech]

interesting

[jorg]

beta max was also cheaper then vhs lmao

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by 181

It's a good thing if WB holds out on declaring exclusivity. It may buy BDA the time it needs to lower prices and cut manufacturing costs so that when Toshiba/Microsoft no longer can drop prices, Blu-ray will be side by side with Blu-ray having the clear advantage at that point.

Please tell me you quoted this from somewhere rather than posting one of the biggest pieces of FUD I've seen in weeks?

[181]

Please tell me you quoted this from somewhere rather than posting one of the biggest pieces of FUD I've seen in weeks?

How is it FUD? It's a different perspective than others. We don't know what WB wants to do or why. It makes sense to me that a lot of people prefer price over quality. It also makes sense that people are waiting for this format war to end. If WB goes Blu exclusive, it is obviously better. But if WB remains neutral through the most part of 2008, which is a good possibility, it does Blu good as well. BDA will have more time to educate, advertise and reduce prices of Blu-ray to compete with Toshiba/Microsoft's only advantage: price. And that's already happening with significant price cuts on Blu-ray players.

[CGYBLU]

Originally Posted by 181

The question is how is this format war different?

The difference...

No one cares about recording times anymore (PVR...etc), so the focus of comparison is on quality. Now, with those criteria reversed, and blu having the sales numbers it does, if you were to base the current outcome on the past (but i don't know why one would) then blu would be the winner.

[john_nemesh]

Originally Posted by 181

How is it FUD? It's a different perspective than others. We don't know what WB wants to do or why. It makes sense to me that a lot of people prefer price over quality. It also makes sense that people are waiting for this format war to end. If WB goes Blu exclusive, it is obviously better. But if WB remains neutral through the most part of 2008, which is a good possibility, it does Blu good as well. BDA will have more time to educate, advertise and reduce prices of Blu-ray to compete with Toshiba/Microsoft's only advantage: price. And that's already happening with significant price cuts on Blu-ray players.

Comparing HDM format war to Beta/VHS is FUD! Plain and simple. The conditions of this war are so incredibly different from Beta/VHS that comparing the two is ludicrous! Seriously...when Beta and VHS were duking it out there was NO OTHER WAY to watch home video, period! Now we have internet, DVRs, DVDs, and yes even VHS. So quit with the FUD and talk about something that matters!

[sj001]

Originally Posted by 181

How is it FUD? It's a different perspective than others. We don't know what WB wants to do or why. It makes sense to me that a lot of people prefer price over quality. It also makes sense that people are waiting for this format war to end. If WB goes Blu exclusive, it is obviously better. But if WB remains neutral through the most part of 2008, which is a good possibility, it does Blu good as well. BDA will have more time to educate, advertise and reduce prices of Blu-ray to compete with Toshiba/Microsoft's only advantage: price. And that's already happening with significant price cuts on Blu-ray players.

Wrong, WB holding out does NO good at all. All it does is string out this unnecessary and damaging war (to both sides). WB going Blu would most likely bring a quick resolution to this war, and you would then see a VERY large scale adoption, players would start flying off the shelves like they never had before. The only person I've heard thus far say that this war is "good" was Craig Kornblau of Universal Studios. So please think about what you said, a quick end = good, to drag it out = bad, for both sides.

[supersix4]

Originally Posted by Geech

interesting

very , I was always told vhs came 2 power cause of porno and some other factors nice to see other stuff thats come to light

[181]

Originally Posted by CGYBLU

The difference...

No one cares about recording times anymore (PVR...etc), so the focus of comparison is on quality. Now, with those criteria reversed, and blu having the sales numbers it does, if you were to base the current outcome on the past (but i don't know why one would) then blu would be the winner.

Good point.

The general consumer base will always want the most for the least amount of money. The average consumer doesn't know what s/he wants. It's up to the marketing department to educate the consumer and convince him/her to buy into their product. Price and simplicity is a big factor for most people.

[181]

Originally Posted by sj001

Wrong, WB holding out does NO good at all. All it does is string out this unnecessary and damaging war (to both sides). WB going Blu would most likely bring a quick resolution to this war, and you would then see a VERY large scale adoption, players would start flying off the shelves like they never had before. The only person I've heard thus far say that this war is "good" was Craig Kornblau of Universal Studios. So please think about what you said, a quick end = good, to drag it out = bad, for both sides.

You understand that I am not arguing against this point? My point is that it is not such a bad thing if WB does not declare exclusivity. It's not the end of the world. WB is its own autonomous entity that will do what it pleases. The rest of you are spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt claiming that the destruction of both formats is imminent if WB stays neutral. That is FUD. What I present is a positive perspective on what you think is the onset of an HDM apocalypse.

[quexos]

Originally Posted by 181

You understand that I am not arguing against this point? My point is that it is not such a bad thing if WB does not declare exclusivity. It's not the end of the world. WB is its own autonomous entity that will do what it pleases. The rest of you are spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt claiming that the destruction of both formats is imminent if WB stays neutral. That is FUD. What I present is a positive perspective on what you think is the onset of an HDM apocalypse.

Your point of view is interesting, granted. But Warner staying neutral will make this stalemate only go longer and with Blu having the better disc sales, there is nothing else to win for Blu. on the other hand, hd-dvd with their lower disc sales has nothing to lose and everything to win. As for the average consumer, they don't want to jump on the HD wagon as long as there is uncertainty and in the end though not apocalyptic, this could damage the rate of adoption into HD by the average Joe with the worst case scenario being that they just don't care anymore about HD and go for cheap upscaling players and just wait it out for the next gen of Holographic discs or whatever will come then

[Maxell]

hddvd is already at about 25% sales, and blu-ray holds more content than hdud discs.

But i do believe the adult business was a factor in the videotape war. They are comparing 1999 income stats to a 70's war. Back then there was barely any cable and video was being used for primarily 3 things: movies, porn, and tv recording. There were no computers or internet. Porn either came in tape or magazines.

[181]

Originally Posted by quexos

Your point of view is interesting, granted. But Warner staying neutral will make this stalemate only go longer and with Blu having the better disc sales, there is nothing else to win for Blu. on the other hand, hd-dvd with their lower disc sales has nothing to lose and everything to win. As for the average consumer, they don't want to jump on the HD wagon as long as there is uncertainty and in the end though not apocalyptic, this could damage the rate of adoption into HD by the average Joe with the worst case scenario being that they just don't care anymore about HD and go for cheap upscaling players and just wait it out for the next gen of Holographic discs or whatever will come then

I agree. Warner has every reason to go Blu. In fact, I hate HD DVD and find no reason why anyone would support it aside from the fact that they bought into it. With all this talk about a possible HDoomsday if Warner didn't go exclusive, I wanted to bring up a point. Do people have no faith in Blu-ray that they put so much emphasis on what Warner does? While I understand Warner plays a huge role in the outcome of HDM at this point, I also believe that Warner wouldn't be in this situation without the awesomeness of Blu-ray. It's obviously difficult for Warner to come out and make a decision since Blu-ray exclusivity is an enticing option and, whether you like it or not, they are still making money from HD DVD.

Having said that, the purpose of my post was to put to rest the idea that Porn played such a huge role in the Videotape era (and many people believe it plays a huge part now, which it doesn't), the fact that Sony learned from their mistakes from Betamax (and as you can see, it seems like the exact opposite case for Sony this time as a previous poster mentioned), and we need to realize it's not the end of the world if WB doesn't declare exclusivity at CES 2008. If they do, that's great news as I have invested in over 50 Blu-ray titles. If they don't, they don't. It's not over yet.

[DJeffries]

Originally Posted by Maxell

hddvd is already at about 25% sales, and blu-ray holds more content than hdud discs.

But i do believe the adult business was a factor in the videotape war. They are comparing 1999 income stats to a 70's war. Back then there was barely any cable and video was being used for primarily 3 things: movies, porn, and tv recording. There were no computers or internet. Porn either came in tape or magazines.

Adult entertainment was not a real factor in the videotape war mainly because contrary to popular belief it was as readily available on Beta as it was on VHS.

[quexos]

Originally Posted by 181

If they do, that's great news as I have invested in over 50 Blu-ray titles. If they don't, they don't. It's not over yet.

No it would not be over if they did not announce exclusivity. But then what happens ? Toshiba is given more time (that's what a non blu exclusivity by Warner means). and what will they do ? Force their way into more homes with super cheap prices, FUD, lies thru advertisement, buying a few studios here and there, small ones why not, the more on their side the better for them. Maybe over the course of time, strike a deal with microsoft to get the hd-dvd player by default in the Xbox, then keep lowering prices etc ...
As sad as it sounds, the masses don't care about quality or high tech (see PSP sales vs DS sales around 27M PSP's and 50M DS's), the average guy won't understand which is the better technology, they'll just hear the word HD and the low low prices and bam they'll go for hd-dvd. Right now the only reason they have not done so massively is that they hear so many good movies are on Blu and not on the cheap hd-dvd. So, how long before some big blu studio gets tired and declares neutrality ?

Basically time is not on our side, though it would take a long time to bring down Bluray, it is necessary to strike and to do so sooner rather than later

[reiella]

Originally Posted by 181

Good point.

The general consumer base will always want the most for the least amount of money. The average consumer doesn't know what s/he wants. It's up to the marketing department to educate the consumer and convince him/her to buy into their product. Price and simplicity is a big factor for most people.

The porn industry in general is different now too.

Although I suspect that with items like the FyreTV, Digital Downloads are prolly not too far from the future with adult entertainment.