81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

This is worth quoting again.

Originally Posted by darinp2

...
I support Blu-ray over HD DVD, but I support the truth over either format.

--Darin

OK then.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by darinp2

No, you should pay more attention to common sense and not make the mistake of thinking that you can apply one ratio to the other, just because it is simple and statistically possible. One problem with statistics is that some people misapply them. It isn't the fault of statistics, it is the fault of of those who misuse statistics.

The ratios that applied to 300 at the end of July don't have to apply to these titles in Q4 and I have already been over that Blu-ray studios have been using higher ratios themselves. In fact, Fox used a higher ratio for Die Hard 4 (including both singles and the box set) than Paramount used for Transformers.

I realize some people here want to be mad, but I wish people would use a little more common sense. There is no coincidence that Dave has gotten the ratios between the formats right the past few weeks, but yet people want to claim that he is wrong about how the First Alert numbers are comparing to what the studios are claiming, based off the ratios being different for a title released in July and these Q4 titles.

If you care about the truth then please quit claiming that Dave is wrong about the numbers and take my advice and ask an insider here about Die Hard 4. I can tell you that Fox claiming 100k meant a higher multiple for that title than Paramount claiming 190k meant for Transformers (compared to First Alert). Die Hard 4 did less than 45k in the First Alert numbers, counting both the individual and the box set.

Please, stop claiming Dave is wrong by misapplying some statistics, or ask an insider whether my statement is true about Die Hard 4 doing less than 45k the first week by First Alert count. I doubt an insider would lie to you about that, so you'll either get a confirmation that it was less than 45k, or no real answer.

I support Blu-ray over HD DVD, but I support the truth over either format.
And it doesn't have to follow the rule you think it has to here. That is a misapplication of statistics/math. And again, if you want to claim otherwise and you care about the truth, ask for confirmation of my statement that Die Hard 4 did under 45k by First Alert the first week, even though Fox claimed 100k total.

--Darin

If DH4 first alert was 45k in week1, then DH4 did not sell 100k . It's actually quite simple, the mathematical principles appliy to all regardless of the blue or red disks. If I knew that DH4 FA was really 45k, I would question Fox's claims of 100k as well. Their true claimed number should be closer to 70k-80k. This explains the "almost 100k" claim and no firm number from Fox.

Here's my view on these numbers : First Alert is a methodlology of gathering samples, it's the early reporting from the biggest B&M POS numbers, unless the sampling methodology changes or the population being sampled changes, the bigger the number, the less likely the rules can deviate from that. This is an application of the Law of Large Numbers. As the number goes to infinity, the percentage difference of the expected from actual must go to 0.

The retail landscape for stores selling HDM did not change between 300 and TF and DH4 so the same rules apply to them all.

Now if somehow Paramount definition of sales numbers are different from Warner's definition of sales numbers, then that could explain the difference, but they are both counting the same thing, then both numbers cannot be right. Either 300 is too low or TF is too high.

If you can't at least apply statistical methods, what's the sense of trying to follow the nielsen numbers to try to derive true sales numbers?

[toocheezy]

I was suppose to go and get something to eat but I am sitting here waiting for the numbers to get up. What is taking them so long????

[Whytewash]

Originally Posted by toocheezy

I was suppose to go and get something to eat but I am sitting here waiting for the numbers to get up. What is taking them so long????

its a hobby for them to watch us squirm and wait in agony. Ill bet you they dont hit till like Wednesday or something stupid like that

[sj001]

They won't be up today, you'll probably see them on Monday.

[savage1984]

What a crock.

[MotionBlurr]

Originally Posted by sj001

They won't be up today, you'll probably see them on Monday.

Okay everybody! You heard what the man said. Lets all leave this thread alone and come back Monday. We can discuss everything else on another thread.

[quetzalcoatl]

Originally Posted by MotionBlurr

Okay everybody! You heard what the man said. Lets all leave this thread alone and come back Monday. We can discuss everything else on another thread.

That would be fine except for the fact they are up now.


Did I get anyone.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by quetzalcoatl

That would be fine except for the fact they are up now.


Did I get anyone.

Link did not work. Your smiley's missing.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by quetzalcoatl

That would be fine except for the fact they are up now.


Did I get anyone.

Not up as far as I can tell...

[quexos]

Originally Posted by sj001

They won't be up today, you'll probably see them on Monday.

Yeah, furthermore the numbers have already been leaked so the wait is not so much of an agony

[domerdel]

Nielsen is probably pissed they got leaked (ha, pissed, leaked) oh well, after hitting refresh 100 times today, i'm calling it quits til monday.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by Neo65

The retail landscape for stores selling HDM did not change between 300 and TF and DH4 so the same rules apply to them all.

This is an assumption on your part. The balance between the whole market and the First Alert market could definitely have changed since late July/early August to different times in Q4.

Originally Posted by Neo65

If you can't at least apply statistical methods, what's the sense of trying to follow the nielsen numbers to try to derive true sales numbers?

You should be able to apply proper statistical methods, but you threw out an assumption that you really can't support, and using statistics properly doesn't mean you can just use any assumption you want. For instance, would you claim that Wal-Mart's percentage of the market hasn't changed since early August?

Even besides that, I am pretty sure that what Dave reported was how the First Alert numbers have compared to what the studios have claimed. All he has to do is look at the numbers for each and tell us how they have compared. If you want to complain about the studios jacking up their claims (that includes Sony and Fox since both have claimed over double what the First Alert numbers reported) then you really should take it up with them and not claim that Dave is wrong. Just common sense should tell you that the odds of him not having the First Alert numbers for the titles being discussed is pretty low (he should play the lottery if he can just guess the overal ratio every week and the ratios for titles).

And I don't believe Dave has ever said that 190k was correct, so not sure why people are arguing as if he did. And I never said it was correct either. Only that other studios have used ratios as higher or higher when comparing First Alert numbers to their claims, while Dave has said that the First Alerts are coming in around half of what the studios are claiming (IIRC).

--Darin

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by Neo65

If DH4 first alert was 45k in week1 ...

Just to be clear, I said it was under 45k. I left some margin as I didn't feel I should give away the exact number and "under 45k" was enough to show that Fox's ratio was higher than what Paramount used. Just don't want people now quoting that the number was 45k.

--Darin

[Whytewash]

I think it is safe to say the number wont be out till wednesday... (being xmas eve and xmas on monday and tuesday respectively. We all saw what they did on thxgivin)

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by darinp2

And I don't believe Dave has ever said that 190k was correct, so not sure why people are arguing as if he did. And I never said it was correct either. Only that other studios have used ratios as higher or higher when comparing First Alert numbers to their claims, while Dave has said that the First Alerts are coming in around half of what the studios are claiming (IIRC).

--Darin

That's my recollection as well.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Whytewash

I think it is safe to say the number wont be out till wednesday... (being xmas eve and xmas on monday and tuesday respectively. We all saw what they did on thxgivin)

This mean we should only expect to get this week's numbers on Wednesday January 2nd D'oh! --> 2 full weeks without new numbers

We got last week's numbers on Wednesday Dec. 19th from DV and he promised no more leaks from now on which means a dry period between Dec 19th to Jan 2nd... on the other hand, we should get numbers for the last week of December only a few days later (right on time for the CES).

Probably best to have a break for the holidays anyway.

Merry Xmas and Happy Blu Year

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by darinp2

This is an assumption on your part. The balance between the whole market and the First Alert market could definitely have changed since late July/early August to different times in Q4.
You should be able to apply proper statistical methods, but you threw out an assumption that you really can't support, and using statistics properly doesn't mean you can just use any assumption you want. For instance, would you claim that Wal-Mart's percentage of the market hasn't changed since early August?

Even besides that, I am pretty sure that what Dave reported was how the First Alert numbers have compared to what the studios have claimed. All he has to do is look at the numbers for each and tell us how they have compared. If you want to complain about the studios jacking up their claims (that includes Sony and Fox since both have claimed over double what the First Alert numbers reported) then you really should take it up with them and not claim that Dave is wrong. Just common sense should tell you that the odds of him not having the First Alert numbers for the titles being discussed is pretty low (he should play the lottery if he can just guess the overal ratio every week and the ratios for titles).

And I don't believe Dave has ever said that 190k was correct, so not sure why people are arguing as if he did. And I never said it was correct either. Only that other studios have used ratios as higher or higher when comparing First Alert numbers to their claims, while Dave has said that the First Alerts are coming in around half of what the studios are claiming (IIRC).

--Darin

Well, let me explain my reasoning first, and let's review my understanding of what the various numbers mean. If there's a flaw in my reasoning, I'd like to review it. If Spidey3 and DH4 claims are really that much higher than the first alert numbers, then they are suspect. I already said earlier that indications are spidey3 likely did not outsell TF --- just based on known sales data and extrapolating.

I'll use this document as a reference for each set of numbers.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attac...6&d=1171406427

The above is a document of companies that make up nielsen videoscan data. It is a large list of retailers that sell packaged media. The list is correct as of Oct 2006. A notable flaw is walmart is not part of the data. It's not known what the ratios are, presumably anecdotal evidence on what ratios they carry should indicate long term sales ratios, as companies tend to manage inventory based on their sales volumes... (my assumption again).

What is Nielsen Videoscan?
It's a paid marketing intelligence gathering service that tracks sales of DVDs and HDMs. The data is typically tracked at POS (point of sales). Whether it is automatically sent to nielsen or is voluntarily submitted by the retailers, I'm not sure, but I assume that First Alert --- known as census is likely done electronically since it arrives early

This only tracks a portion of total sales, but earlier articles note this percentage is higher for HDM than DVD. MY speculation here is that the smaller retailer that sell DVDs and not tracked by nielsen are less likely to carry HDM. But I have no proof other than articles have been written indicating that studies showed BestBuy sells more HDM than anyone else, and claimed numbers by warner indicate untracked numbers should be small. [the supposed .55x of first alert meaning FirstAlert gets almost 2/3 of the total, and presumaly the stragglers that make up the final number is an even bigger fraction. I agree with your point about Walmart, but I still don't see how Walmart alone can move a ratio from 1.53 to 2.11

What is First Alert?
The document above lists all the companies that report to nielsen videoscan. The ones in blue are the first alert reporters. Note that the ones marked in blue include K-Mart, Target, amazon.com, BestBuy, BUY.COM, CircuitCity, Blockbusters, HMV, TowerRecords, J&R, etc. So we see that FirstAlert is a large set.

Has retail landscape changed?
BestBuy is still BestBuy, amazon.com is still amazon.com, and fundamentally the biggest known sellers of HDM have not gone out of business, retailers outside of the FirstAlert have not suddenly exploded in size enough to overwhelm the existing FirstAlert retailers. So that's what I mean by retail landscape not changing.

Why I think DV is wrong about TF sales (after considering First Alert of 300 and TF)?

Seeing that First Alert includes BestBuy, CircuitCity, amazon.com and others, If we consider the tally from each store as a sample, by all rights, the totals from all these FirstAlert stores should capture a certain fraction of the total sales for a movie. This same principle should apply for all movies, including 300, TF, DH4, Spidey3, PotC3. Note also that this fraction should be independent of change in installed base of players on either side, as bestbuy etal should reflect this change and there should not be any bias either way.

Even if we argue that NY could prefer DH4, or if states with larger greek populations should prefer 300, these retailers in first alert should sell to all these states.

So if this is how FirstAlert is obtained, once FirstAlert numbers are known, how can it be that Warner reports a number of 250k (which btw is higher than HMM numbers), while Paramount announces 190k for TF? By FirstAlert, I mean the following numbers in this article :
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.co...at-stupid-lie/

namely :

Transformers HD-DVD
Week Ending 10/21/07 = 89,871 Units (First Week sales as reported in VideoScan First Alert)
---
300 HD-DVD/DVD Combo Pack
Week Ending 8/5/07 = 56,191 Units (First Week sales as reported in VideoScan First Alert)
---
300 Blu-ray
Week Ending 8/5/07 = 107,351 Units (First Week sales as reported in VideoScan First Alert)

190k/89871 = 2.11
250k/(156191+107351)=1.53 (I was off in my earlier math).

Knowing how FirstAlert was obtained, this is why if sold means the same thing for TF and 300, I don't see how that ratio can be so far apart. If these titles sold 10,000, I can believe that with a number that small, there's no way to tell gague how accurate it is. But both TF and 300 sold > 100k, which makes it more difficult to see how we can move from 1.53 to 2.11.

---

Again, I have no idea how to account for Walmart numbers, but to move from 1.53 to 2.11, would mean that Walmart alone has more than doubled the size of untracked sales of HDM - during TF week compared to the 300 days. How can this happen? There was no giant displays during TF week that would explain this doubling, there's even no indication that Walmart is outselling BestBuy for HDM after TF week either.

Ok, so if there is a flaw in how I estimate these numbers, I'd be glad to make adjustments, this trying to estimate unit sales is after all, just a hobby of mine, and there's people here who have the actual FirstAlert numbers, which means I'm still guessing, while they know the actual F.A.

[SpaceDog]

what's up with STILL no official numbers?

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by SpaceDog

what's up with STILL no official numbers?

Universal stole them!

~Alan