8.4 millions PS3 sold by 12/22

[ikbradley]

The PS3 will surpass the 360 in sales next holiday season if:

(1) GTA IV on the PS3 is comporable if not better than the 360;
(2) Microsoft does not include a built-in HD-DVD player;
(3) MGS4 remains exclusive and Little Big Planet delivers the coveted family and children market, and take back Wii's demographic.

All of these are pretty much home runs and for sure bets for the PS3. However, Sony has dropped the ball a few times and the quality of GTA IV and success of LBP really will indicate if the North American market is going to remain a 360/PS3 stalemate or if the PS3 takes over, as it already has in Europe and Japan.