Archived: Ask the Insiders: Judgment Day Edition

[groovyone]

Thanks again, PM. Keep up the great work.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Currently, people are looking at ways to end the war as soon as possible-- not extend it with empty promises or speculation concerning higher capacity discs.

See, this ^^^ is one of those comments that will most likely fly under the radar. Assuming the majority of the parties involved in this fiasco are "looking at ways" w/ a good faith effort, then I would say this is significant indeed.

Of course, some of us have sensed this for the last 3-4 months by reading in between the lines, but nevertheless, it's good to see confirmation of sorts that this is what is happening behind closed doors!!

Great post Penton-Man!!!

[cjamescook]

Originally Posted by jknuss01

Okay...

Who is up for going to CES and looking at everyones legs till we find the one that matches the [legs in Penton's] picture?

Lemme see now... Penton is looking for Mystik's legs, but you guys are looking for Penton's legs and ...

"Ah say, this kid is about as sharp as a bowling ball."
-Foghorn Leghorn

[PaulGo]

A quick comment to insiders:

My local Costco had about 20 Sony Blu-ray players and about 20 Toshiba HD-DVD players. They had a big Sony display showing the Blu-ray features. The Blu-ray players sold out in several days without one Toshiba player being sold. Now thst the Blue-ray players are sold out the Toshiba players are starting to sell and about eight have sold. You need to restock supplies or people will start buying Toshiba.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by cjamescook

Lemme see now... Penton is looking for Mystik's legs..........

Not just legs, I/we want to see butt too!
That’s why the chaps attire is currently on the negotiating table.

And I see one of our blu-ray forum members is currently the highest bidder for the Blu-ray jacket on e-bay, which mystik would be getting for free.

[Penton-Man]

I’ve received a bunch of PM’s about HD DVD bogo sales and what not --currently going on somewhere, or already finished?

After discussions yesterday, I am not concerned about this or any other future HD DVD sales for that matter. Personally now, I think there should be sufficient sales data even without waiting for 5th quarter numbers or beyond.

The only thing on my mind at this time is whether a certain would be totally blu studio gets “exce$$ively mounted” like another one did several months ago to corrupt a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you guys that are PMing me about HD DVD bogo sales want to worry about something, that is the only possible thing I can see that could potentially derail a good expedited outcome…… and so far, everything is still on track.

Later

[Dogdvr]

Wow,
That sure is positive sounding!
Thanks

[sj001]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I’ve received a bunch of PM’s about HD DVD bogo sales and what not --currently going on somewhere, or already finished?

After discussions yesterday, I am not concerned about this or any other future HD DVD sales for that matter. Personally now, I think there should be sufficient sales data even without waiting for 5th quarter numbers or beyond.

The only thing on my mind at this time is whether a certain would be totally blu studio gets “exce$$ively mounted” like another one did several months ago to corrupt a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you guys that are PMing me about HD DVD bogo sales want to worry about something, that is the only possible thing I can see that could potentially derail a good expedited outcome…… and so far, everything is still on track.

Later

Hopefully now that the BDA is aware of such a situation, they will be able to counter any type of "M$ounting"...?

Though WB has rejected them last time, so they would hopefully do the same this time as well.

Thanks as always!

[Scorxpion]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I’ve received a bunch of PM’s about HD DVD bogo sales and what not --currently going on somewhere, or already finished?

After discussions yesterday, I am not concerned about this or any other future HD DVD sales for that matter. Personally now, I think there should be sufficient sales data even without waiting for 5th quarter numbers or beyond.

The only thing on my mind at this time is whether a certain would be totally blu studio gets “exce$$ively mounted” like another one did several months ago to corrupt a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you guys that are PMing me about HD DVD bogo sales want to worry about something, that is the only possible thing I can see that could potentially derail a good expedited outcome…… and so far, everything is still on track.

Later

Penton Man ,

you are the Man and i'm not worried about anything i'm just keeping buying my favourites BD ..yes this is what we should care about everything is on track and higher temperature on

[stockstar1138]

thanks for the comment Penton. I expect the BDA to play hard ball and match or exceed any type of deal MS/Tosh delivers. If they don't then i seriously gotta question their desire to win. With the size of Mashushita, Sony, etc. they should be able to match it, plus they have the argument of better sales.

[Elandyll]

Thanks for the update Penton, we know you are very busy in this pre-CES period

Really people, if you look at the eproduct wars page (amazon ranks), the -only- way HD dvd has ever won a day was when they had a super promo on discs. and that never really translated into huge volumes as far as HDM is concerned.
All those Amazon sales are boosted by the international orders taking advantage of the Bogo (Just like PE was boosted by European orders), but that is most likely a one week boost, and won't translate in the volumes needed to actually win the week.
Look at their day and date releases on amazon.
The Kingdom is ranked 92, and Eastern Promises 119. THAT is what speaks volume about the HD DVD mentality of buying cheap and opportunistic. THAT should be what also speaks volume to Warner, when its HP series only sells well at half price on HD DVD.

[stockstar1138]

i gotta ask if any insiders know the current state of toshibas or microsofts financial situation in regards to hd dvd. any payout to wb i would have to assume will be at least half a billion dollars. plus, they are subsidizing standalones and lowering prices on software via BOGOs and lower costs to studios. Now, I know MS is a very financially sound company, but aren't the investors pretty fed up with their Home Media division. I mean last year it was a billion for xbox repairs, this year is it going to be a billion in hd dvd payoffs. XBOX is a very financially sound investment for MS, it is profitable, but why risk the chance of investor pressure in shutting down the Home Media division all together over HD DVD payoffs that will just run HDM into the ground with no sound reasoning on why they would have a financially successful download business. And with Toshiba, surely after last quarters numbers they have to be cutting back on the hd dvd subsidisies and payoffs. i just don't see how the board and investors are going to let them get away with near billion dollar losses over hd dvd. how many more quarters can they keep this up before ppl are sick and tired of hd dvd losing them real big money.

[juanleche]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

A quick comment to insiders:

My local Costco had about 20 Sony Blu-ray players and about 20 Toshiba HD-DVD players. They had a big Sony display showing the Blu-ray features. The Blu-ray players sold out in several days without one Toshiba player being sold. Now thst the Blue-ray players are sold out the Toshiba players are starting to sell and about eight have sold. You need to restock supplies or people will start buying Toshiba.

Indeed my padre-in-law down in san antonio whent to Circuit City, got a 1080p LCD display and decided to add one of those sub $300 blu-ray players, some sale was going on x-mas eve, and they were sold out, he went to Best Buy to price match, and saw the last player walk out the store as he got there. Neither store would give a raincheck, but I covinced him to wait for a blu-ray player and to avoid the other player.

Still good sign that players are selling out

[Thegide]

Thanks for the info, Penton. Things are looking incredibly positive.

I'm not sure what Toshiba would have to offer at this point in the game. Declining stock prices aside, it's fairly obvious they are losing money if not just on the hardware end alone.

And following Microsoft's $500M negotiations with Viacom, I have to wonder how much buy-off money they would have left to send WB's way. They may be a multibillion dollar corporation, but they have stockholders to answer to - and routinely spending that kind of cash to fuel a format war they are losing can only be viewed as a bad business decision. I'm sure the expense budget for replacing all those xbox 360 has also hurt their ability to buy a win (or in this case, a stalemate). Perhaps the Viacom deal was a secondary objective after being denied by WB?

Regardless, I have to believe the BDA could match and improve on whatever offer Toshiba/MS could give.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I’ve received a bunch of PM’s about HD DVD bogo sales and what not --currently going on somewhere, or already finished?

After discussions yesterday, I am not concerned about this or any other future HD DVD sales for that matter. Personally now, I think there should be sufficient sales data even without waiting for 5th quarter numbers or beyond.

The only thing on my mind at this time is whether a certain would be totally blu studio gets “exce$$ively mounted” like another one did several months ago to corrupt a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you guys that are PMing me about HD DVD bogo sales want to worry about something, that is the only possible thing I can see that could potentially derail a good expedited outcome…… and so far, everything is still on track.

Later

OK I'm going to say it.

IF the BDA allow themsleves to be outbid for WB, if that is what it comes down to, I guess that shows us more than anything MS's desire to force a stalemate is stronger than the collective BDA's desire to have a single, successful, optical format for the next decade.

Those BDA companies could kiss goodbye to long term home cinema profits by letting MS control Hollywood via a tightly controlled HD download service.

If that prospect doesn't get the BDA's arse's into gear, I don't know what will!

[Beta-guy]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I’ve received a bunch of PM’s about HD DVD bogo sales and what not --currently going on somewhere, or already finished?

After discussions yesterday, I am not concerned about this or any other future HD DVD sales for that matter. Personally now, I think there should be sufficient sales data even without waiting for 5th quarter numbers or beyond.

The only thing on my mind at this time is whether a certain would be totally blu studio gets “exce$$ively mounted” like another one did several months ago to corrupt a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you guys that are PMing me about HD DVD bogo sales want to worry about something, that is the only possible thing I can see that could potentially derail a good expedited outcome…… and so far, everything is still on track.

Later

thanks once again, that's great to hear

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

OK I'm going to say it.

IF the BDA allow themsleves to be outbid for WB, if that is what it comes down to, I guess that shows us more than anything MS's desire to force a stalemate is stronger than the collective BDA's desire to have a single, successful, optical format for the next decade.

Those BDA companies could kiss goodbye to long term home cinema profits by letting MS control Hollywood via a tightly controled HD download service.

If that prospect doen't get the BDA's arse's into gear, I don't know what will!

Well said, I agree. If the BDA cant beat MS and Toshiba then they dont WANT to win.

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

OK I'm going to say it.

IF the BDA allow themsleves to be outbid for WB, if that is what it comes down to, I guess that shows us more than anything MS's desire to force a stalemate is stronger than the collective BDA's desire to have a single, successful, optical format for the next decade.

Those BDA companies could kiss goodbye to long term home cinema profits by letting MS control Hollywood via a tightly controled HD download service.

If that prospect doen't get the BDA's arse's into gear, I don't know what will!

All this talk about Warner being bought out by the HD DVD camp is utter nonsense. Times are far different now than when Paramount/Dreamworks were paid off, and it would be suicide for Warner in regards to software sales to take any kind of payoff to go HD DVD exclusive at this point. The amount of money to offset the future losses at this stage of the game would have to be closer to several hundred million dollars (closer to 1 billion), not just a couple hundred million. I think you will find (and the insiders can confirm/deny this if they choose) that the general consensus in the industry is that this war going on very much longer will result in the death of both formats. And with DVD sales in decline, hi-def is the future of the market, if it's going to have a future. Warner's neutrality is at an end. There are far too many reasons not to support both formats any longer, and since they started HD DVD exclusive and then went neutral, I would say barring all else, Blu-exclusivity is the next logical step... The sales back it up, the number of potential players in the market (read: PS3) far exceed the competition, and there's more support from the CEMs, other studios, and home entertainment groups. Blu is the future, join us, or be left in our dust...

[camper]

Originally Posted by Elandyll

THAT should be what also speaks volume to Warner, when its HP series only sells well at half price on HD DVD.

Excellent point, and I think that's key. Blu Ray had a huge advance over HD DVD just yesterday, pull up the chart on highdefdigest (http://charts.highdefdigest.com/history.aspx) and do a dvd by dvd comparison with Order of the Phoenix Red vs Blu and you can clearly see it.

One would assume (and hope) that anyone studying these numbers will realize that on the 27th, when the sales spiked, the HD DVD camp finally creaked open their wallets to make the buys at half price - since they were unwilling to pay more than $10 per disc before. Wheras Blu Ray led the sales, at least on Amazon, without a BOGO on the Order of the Phoenix.

~camper

[Spankey]

The most positive news I have heard. I only hope the BDA is ready to have wallets open or it is game over for both formats. This is one time the red bribes can not be accepted. Hardball time.

The consumers have done their part.