81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[al0137]

Well.. my contact actually works for Warner HMV. So yeah - guess who I'm talking to is just some analyst who reads the stats. Just because somebody posts on this board every two minutes doesn't make them an "expert" by any means. I'm not saying I'm an "expert" either but just providing information as I know it from a close source to the action.

What do people want here!?!? We are in a war and need to fight! No one has won this thing yet regardless of how many people here want to think otherwise. I don't want to get caught again - I thought Blu had already won prior to the Paramount annoucement! If we sit back and proclaim victory while Toshiba and M$ are doing the real bidding, then we are all going to be very embarrassed come Jan. 7th.

Damn.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by al0137

Well.. my contact actually works for Warner HMV. So yeah - guess who I'm talking to is just some analyst who reads the stats. Just because somebody posts on this board every two minutes doesn't make them an "expert" by any means. I'm not saying I'm an "expert" either but just providing information as I know it from a close source to the action.

What do people want here!?!? We are in a war and need to fight! No one has won this thing yet regardless of how many people here want to think otherwise. I don't want to get caught again - I thought Blu had already won prior to the Paramount annoucement! If we sit back and proclaim victory while Toshiba and M$ are doing the real bidding, then we are all going to be very embarrassed come Jan. 7th.

Damn.

im not calling you a troll or even you accusing you of spreading misinformation. you very well may be speaking the truth. all im saying you have not proven yourself credible enough to be believed on such a serious matter. its not a matter of how many posts you have. if you had 10 posts and all 10 were predictions that were true, everybody here would believe you. but you have not had any correct predictions (yet) therfore we cannot believe you, as in the past we have had many trolls saying very similar things as you and it turns out that they are just liars trying to stir the pot on blu-ray.com

[sparksj]

The question becomes:
Is Disney promoting Blu Ray becaused it's the only format they sell? Are they just trying to increase their sales because overall HD sales are so low that they want to recoup their investment?

It makes sense to me that if I was a car dealer that only sold Mercedes, I would go around promoting the hell out of them. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't consider selling BMW it market demands for BMW vwent up?

Any thoughts on this?

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by al0137

If we sit back and proclaim victory while Toshiba and M$ are doing the real bidding, then we are all going to be very embarrassed come Jan. 7th.

Damn.

We are not the ones fighting the war, the bda is. and if you don't think or your source isn't telling you that the bda is in very close and serious talks with wb, then you are gravely mistaken. our insiders have been telling us a different story. and just to be frank we all trust them a lot more than we can trust you.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by bassbone57

I work for a smaller local electronics store, and we saw about the same thing. We order blu players by the pallet (50 at a time or so) and DUDs come 2 or 3 at a time.

-K

Too many people have been saying the same thing for the BDA not to have a big announcmenebt at CES or before.

How long has HD-DVD be dining out on those 90k HD-DVD sales back in October/November, since, all indications are that Blu-ray standalones have turned the corner.

[HeavyHitter]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

im not calling you a troll or even you accusing you of spreading misinformation. you very well may be speaking the truth. all im saying you have not proven yourself credible enough to be believed on such a serious matter. its not a matter of how many posts you have. if you had 10 posts and all 10 were predictions that were true, everybody here would believe you. but you have not had any correct predictions (yet) therfore we cannot believe you, as in the past we have had many trolls saying very similar things as you and it turns out that they are just liars trying to stir the pot on blu-ray.com

Well said. But, there's just a part of me who thinks this al0137 guy is someone spawned by rdjam or someone of the red side. Just some of his comments seem a bit FUDish and almost try to inject some mild panic on the forum. Time will tell.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by sparksj

The question becomes:
Is Disney promoting Blu Ray becaused it's the only format they sell? Are they just trying to increase their sales because overall HD sales are so low that they want to recoup their investment?

It makes sense to me that if I was a car dealer that only sold Mercedes, I would go around promoting the hell out of them. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't consider selling BMW it market demands for BMW vwent up?

Any thoughts on this?

its nothing like that. while bmw and mercedes are competitors in the luxary car market, they both can thrive while the other thrives. hdm is nothing like that, one will die or they both will die, both cannot survive, like luxary car manufacturers can. when a customer buys one (luxary car) he gets a complete package (a car). when a customer buys into hdm he doesn't, he is getting at best 70% of the HDM out there. both formats cannot survive together as retailers will not stand for it, nor will the public, disney going neutral only prolongs things and will simply run HDM into the ground, which is something they don't want to do.

[Dotpattern]

Originally Posted by al0137

Well.. my contact actually works for Warner HMV. So yeah - guess who I'm talking to is just some analyst who reads the stats. Just because somebody posts on this board every two minutes doesn't make them an "expert" by any means. I'm not saying I'm an "expert" either but just providing information as I know it from a close source to the action.

What do people want here!?!? We are in a war and need to fight! No one has won this thing yet regardless of how many people here want to think otherwise. I don't want to get caught again - I thought Blu had already won prior to the Paramount annoucement! If we sit back and proclaim victory while Toshiba and M$ are doing the real bidding, then we are all going to be very embarrassed come Jan. 7th.

Damn.

My contact as Disney tells me that they will never go neutral, and this morning I had breakfast with my contact at Fox who tells me that Star Wars is being released on Blu-ray in 3 months. So, why should you believe me just because I say I have contacts? Why should anyone believe you just because you say you do?

Lame.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by sparksj

The question becomes:
Is Disney promoting Blu Ray becaused it's the only format they sell? Are they just trying to increase their sales because overall HD sales are so low that they want to recoup their investment?

It makes sense to me that if I was a car dealer that only sold Mercedes, I would go around promoting the hell out of them. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't consider selling BMW it market demands for BMW vwent up?

Any thoughts on this?

I think it is clear that Disney sees the same technical superiority in BD that all of us see. In HD DVD, their movies could not look as good as they do in BD.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by jebel

Sure dude? I just checked, and at the present time Potter on HD has spots 1-4, as well as lots of titles in the top 50, which is new.

Course, post-Christmas sales volume drops off significantly, so if you were to want to "fudge" the numbers in your dramatically in your favor for a given week, throwing out a massive BOGO immediately after Christmas would be your best bet. Nice trick for a little uptick the last week of the year to make it appear as though the month wasn't as bad for you as it actually was.

You can see through this, I can see through this, I'm guessing highly paid execs at studios and CE's can also see through this.............or maybe they won't and WB will go HD-DVD exclusive because a BOGO did relatively well!

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by patrick99

I think it is clear that Disney sees the same technical superiority in BD that all of us see. In HD DVD, their movies could not look as good as they do in BD.

ill add to that the fact that disney would have to completely redo their transfers to go neutral as hd dvd couldn't handle the specs they have given the blu-ray release. the opposite cannot be said, as it is very easy for a red company to port to blu.

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by sparksj

The question becomes:
Is Disney promoting Blu Ray becaused it's the only format they sell? Are they just trying to increase their sales because overall HD sales are so low that they want to recoup their investment?

It makes sense to me that if I was a car dealer that only sold Mercedes, I would go around promoting the hell out of them. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't consider selling BMW it market demands for BMW vwent up?

Any thoughts on this?

Yes, there are thoughts. First of all, you're asking the Mercedes dealer to look into selling Volkswagons, not BMWs. Volkswagons are great cars, but they're nowhere near the quality of a BMW or a Mercedes. So I think that's the better comparison. And in which case, they'd never consider it unless Mercedes Benz went away altogether.

To address your other concern: it's been stated time-and-time-again by insiders and retailers here that this format war is what is keeping mass adoption from occurring, so HDM sales will be dismal compared to DVD until there is only one format. Going Neutral at this point to what is clearly showing as being the losing format would be suicidal. There would be no recouping their investment at that point, just attempts to cut their losses.

And enough with all this talk about any of the major Blu studios going red. It's not going to happen; the studios chose blu-ray for what blu-ray could offer in protection and region encoding. There was no real market for blu-ray when they started with the format, and now they're being rewarded for it. Why would they go neutral now? For a 33% increase in sales? Do you have any idea what the upfront costs would be to start producing on the other format as well? This is a tired, outdated, and rediculous argument and it needs to be quit being brought up.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by al0137

Well, my contact at Warner told me again a week ago that Warner was looking at hardware sales much closer than any software sales. So, I wouldn't say any real reason for any panic yet. However, if Warner has not been convinced this past quarter to count the PS3 as a "Blu-Ray" machine in terms of hardware sales, then that coupled with a recent surge in HD-DUD software sales (HP DUD outselling HP Blu - wtf!??!?!??!), then we might need to start sweating a little and preparing for any possibility.

How about that outselling being true? Can we first start there before we build case based on it?

The VideoBusiness piece has been ammended. HP red was not ahead of HP Blu. The overall during Bourne week was apparently 61:39 Blu which is an embarassment for HD DVD.

Originally Posted by al0137

Has anyone considered if Disney is looking at all these overall numbers this quarter as closely as Warner? I'd be very curious to know. My guess is that if Warner stays neutral in 2008 but Disney goes neutral as well.. then no one is going to win. Blu and the other trailer trash format will go the route of DVD-A and SACD.

Yes, most people pushing an HD DVD agenda raise Disney neutrality all the time. At least once per quarter since before either format launched.

Again, how about a logical case for that happening before discussing what would be the consequences.

Why would Disney deliberately choose a path to a stalemate?

Gary

[al0137]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

im not calling you a troll or even you accusing you of spreading misinformation. you very well may be speaking the truth. all im saying you have not proven yourself credible enough to be believed on such a serious matter. its not a matter of how many posts you have. if you had 10 posts and all 10 were predictions that were true, everybody here would believe you. but you have not had any correct predictions (yet) therfore we cannot believe you, as in the past we have had many trolls saying very similar things as you and it turns out that they are just liars trying to stir the pot on blu-ray.com

Just want to make it clear - I am not (nor have not) made any predictions. I have theories that give a "win" for both sides depending on certain events but they are just theories. Of course I want blu to win! I've invested heavily in the format and it's technically superior to HD-DUD in every way but that doesn't mean that I think the powers-that-be are going make it a Blu future for us (just yet).

[al0137]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

We are not the ones fighting the war, the bda is. and if you don't think or your source isn't telling you that the bda is in very close and serious talks with wb, then you are gravely mistaken. our insiders have been telling us a different story. and just to be frank we all trust them a lot more than we can trust you.

Actually my source has let me know that both groups have been in serious talks with Warner. He even told me that last time both groups met (in person) was last month even (in November). My source is not giving me any indication that Warner is leaning blu or dud, just to make it clear (not that he'd tell me if he knew which I don't think he knows anyway..).

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

ill add to that the fact that disney would have to completely redo their transfers to go neutral as hd dvd couldn't handle the specs they have given the blu-ray release. the opposite cannot be said, as it is very easy for a red company to port to blu.

Absolutely right and a very good point.

[Deciazulado]

[Esox50]

Anyone else find it funny that Universal titles are found in the Amazon BOGO? Wasn't Ken Graffeo just complaining last week about the 3 or 4 BOGOs the BDA had in the 4Q? It's as if there was some sort of conversation:

Graffeo: "What do you think of HD DVD and BD sales?"

Un-named Source: "I think HD DVD is sucking wind, BD is selling more right now."

Graffeo: "Yeah, but...but BOGOs are the only reason they are winning."

Un-named Source: "That's not true Ken. They didn't have BOGOs all the time, and HD DVD has been giving away discs all 4th Qtr, which are scanned with the purchase of a player."

Graffeo: "But free discs with a player is still not a BOGO...BOGOs are stupid"

Un-named Source: "But it would make the HD DVD numbers look 'not as bad'."

Graffeo: (Dials Kornblau up) "Hey, I had this great idea. What if we run a BOGO on Amazon? You think that will help me keep my job?"

Kornblau: "Great idea Ken. Did you come up with this all by yourself?"

Graffeo: "Yeah, I was taking a hit off of that bong we share on weekends on your boat, and this idea just came to me. 'Let's do a BOGO'. Maybe this will be a way for us to move all those shitty encodes we did on the catalog titles and make HD DVD look a little better so Warner won't leave is high and dry with the @ssholes at Paramount that got more money than we were ever offered."

[sparksj]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

its nothing like that. while bmw and mercedes are competitors in the luxary car market, they both can thrive while the other thrives. hdm is nothing like that, one will die or they both will die, both cannot survive, like luxary car manufacturers can. when a customer buys one (luxary car) he gets a complete package (a car). when a customer buys into hdm he doesn't, he is getting at best 70% of the HDM out there. both formats cannot survive together as retailers will not stand for it, nor will the public, disney going neutral only prolongs things and will simply run HDM into the ground, which is something they don't want to do.

You have a very valid point. But if Disney knew the war was going to last a while, they know they could make more money by selling both. Disney has a very interesting position in the market. I personally don't buy many movies. I rent them. Reason being, I don't generally like to watch something more than once. My kids, however, love to watch things over and over again. Because of this, only about 10% of the S-DVDs I own are for me. The remaining 90% are all kids shows. I currently only own an HD DVD player and am waiting for the right time to buy BR. I have pruchased only 6 HD DVD movies and 50% of them are for kids (I got Planet Earth more for the kids).

Blade Runner
Shrek 3rd
Polar Express
Transformers
Batman
PLanet Earth

The rest I rent. However, Once I go Blu, I will definitely buy all Disney movies. My three kids love them and would watch them all the time.

It sounds like you would know the answer to this better than I would. Isn't their a point where the cost of switching over to dual format would not outweigh the profit to be made doing so. However, lets say that Disney predicted that it would cost $xxxx amount to start HD DVD production but the could make 3 X $xxxx by doing so. Are you saying that Disney would still chose to stick with BR exclusively and give up th extra profit they could make?

I'll agree whole heartedly that right now they would not recoup their cost to conver to dual format. What are you thoughts? Am I way off here?

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

That

is just too

funny!