What about Warner? Part the Second

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by merrick97

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the fact of the matter is bluray loses if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive.

So, you figure Sony and Fox will release on HD DVD if Warner went HD DVD exclusive?

Winning means all studios releasing on one format. That defines the winner. Anything else is stagnation.

Gary

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

So, you figure Sony and Fox will release on HD DVD if Warner went HD DVD exclusive?

Winning means all studios releasing on one format. That defines the winner. Anything else is stagnation.

Gary

I don't know if they will or not, but I will say this (at my own peril since this is Blu-ray.com): if Warner Brothers goes HD DVD exclusive, I would almost prefer that Fox and Disney follow suit, so the war could be brought to an end.

In other words, Gary, I agree with you that all studios releasing on one format defines the winner, and anything else is stagnation. I would rather have HD DVD win than to have stagnation.

I guess there is the possibility that both formats continue to exist, and Universal players become more popular, but I personally doubt it. Even if they did, it would probably prevent widespread adoption (stagnation), and the formats would remain "niche", probably until the next format comes along (which may well be HD downloads).

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

The problem with this is the fact that WB releases more movies than other studios, and they tend to be the movies that do very well. This is why most people say that WB means everything in this war.

What you say is true from a historical standpoint. However, the notion above assumes that the studios continue releasing in 2008 at the same rate they have previously. I think 2008 has been pegged as the year where the studios want to make significant headway in establishing HDM.

I believe Fox has stated they intend to release 100 titles, which would be way more than they have done previously. Disney's first 1/2 08 leaked slate looks to be be fairly aggressive as well. I know these are "promises", and things could change. However, I think it's safe to assume that they'll get to 80% of what they promise much like Universal promised 100 titles for HD DVD and released something like 82 titles. (I apologize a lot of this is from memory).

Bottom line, I think it's safe to assume...
80-100 titles from:
Sony Pictures (on Blu)
20th Century Fox (on Blu)
Disney Home Video (on Blu)
Universal (on HD DVD)
Warner Bros (currently on both, though BD may get a 1/2 dozen more than HD DVD in the calendar year in the form of the 'missing titles' like Batman Begins, The Matrix, etc)

Paramount has promised 30-40 titles (on HD DVD)

I don't know about Lion's Gate and how extensive their catalog is, but maybe 20-30 titles from them on Blu?

Then of course, there's a bunch of smaller studios and independents.

Anyway, those are just rough estimates, some based on studio comments and obviously subject to change (and Fox has proven they can go AWOL at any time ).

In the end, the point is that if the studios are really going to grow HDM, I think previous release patterns are not necessarily indicative of future plans. I fully expect to buy 50% more than I did in 2007 (assuming the BDA doesn't screw the pooch and let WB go HD DVD in which case that's a vote of 'no confidence' in HDM, and I'd be done with it).

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

I don't know if they will or not, but I will say this (at my own peril since this is Blu-ray.com): if Warner Brothers goes HD DVD exclusive, I would almost prefer that Fox and Disney follow suit, so the war could be brought to an end.

Because all those PS/3s disappear?
Because all those PS/3 and BD standalone owners will rush to buy HD DVD?
Because nobody needs Sony releases?

How does it end the war in any way that guarantees a success for HDM?

Gary

[sj001]

WB going red would just create some much nonsense and confusion that the HDM market may never recover from it. But there are a TON of PS3s out there, and growing all the time. Those certainly will not become obsolete, and I just can't picture Disney or Fox releasing on HD-DVD EVER, why would they want to release master quality stuff on that format so it can be pirated all over the net very easily?

[blitz6speed]

I think rob has been hanging out at AVS too much lately =(((

[sj001]

Originally Posted by g.k.

Dave Vaughn posted this on HDD regarding Warner:



This meeting that may or may not have taken place seems to have had more leaks than the Titanic.

...and Dave Vaughn is yet another FUD spreader... he really needs to stick to just reviewing movies, instead of spreading his "inside information" around...

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by merrick97

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the fact of the matter is bluray is toast if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive.

If you mean that it means HD DVD wins (rather than the whole thing is a mess), then it also means that Warner has a feduciary responsibility to demand the highest bid.

It would mean there will be no continued neutrality. They will go one way or the other.

It's a hell of a risk. Because the money is partly going to come from a company that wants nothing to do with shiny discs. And thus Warner will be risking the entire future on whether a serious download infrastructure can be built, because HD DVD won't be allowed to succeed.

Blu-ray doesn't threaten downloads (BD-Live probably will have such abilities). But MS-driven downloads definitely threaten HD DVD.

Gary

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by Esox50

What you say is true from a historical standpoint. However, the notion above assumes that the studios continue releasing in 2008 at the same rate they have previously. I think 2008 has been pegged as the year where the studios want to make significant headway in establishing HDM.

Yes, Universal released 30+ more titles than Warner Bros. did last year.

Insiders, I'm not sure how much you can say here, but I would love a (hypothetical) opinion:

Given Microsoft's strong ties with Universal (MSNBC, etc...) and Microsoft's (apparent) change in attitude toward HD DVD, could Universal's "allegiance" to HD DVD weaken?

~Alan

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by blindcat87

Oh, yeah, Amir is helping the sneaky BD insiders cover their butts and brace us for disappointment. If you want to know how Blu insiders brace us for when they really think or know real setbacks are coming research back to the time of the Paramount thing and see P-Man's attempt to give a head's up that everyone missed.

It is amazing how things always run in the same cycles around here. News pops up that looks good for BD. Insiders say that things are looking good. People say that is great and discuss. A couple of people discuss the possible ways this could go wrong, some of them go to other forums and read the other side discussing how the smurfs or whatever term they choose are deluding themselves. Folks with a history of posting pure negativity point out that the BDA has never done anything right and that we are doomed. Then normally reasonable members begin posting how this is it and we are being set up for doom and it is all over.

It grows worse because the insiders will not post a 100% iron clad guarantee that nothing will go awry and other promises that anyone would be a fool to make. They don't answer questions that anyone with a brain could see that answering or going any further in answering would get them fired, so they must be bracing us for the horror to come. They didn't reassure us every 5 minutes, so it is doom. What do you want? The questions were answered. If you actually comprehend English and pay attention to the words coming out of their keyboards and better yet pay attention to the behavior of insiders on the other side, then perhaps you wouldn't need to start popping valium and Maalox every 10 minutes.

Pause, take a deep breath, actually read what the insiders have already said, note that they have more important things to do during this extremely busy time than to repeat themselves every 5 minutes when people's attention span expires and they need reassurance.

The positive outcome is not guaranteed. But this cyclone of negativity has a very definite pattern and I think if people reread things they will see the pattern and the downward spiral and realize that they are mostly doing it to themselves.

The most likely negative possibility would be WB staying neutral. Going red exclusibe is not a win for HD DVD. It evenly divides the industry on the software side and doesn't change the hardware side. It does not remove any of the reasons other studios have against HD DVD and if you look at things from those studios perspective, those problems are insurmountable for HD DVD without a major paradigm shift. The financial and self protection reasons as well as reasons of industry polotics have been spelled out a hundred times. You don't have to accept them, that is your perrogative. But I believe that if you look at the entire picture, tht it is obvious that an evenly divided software market equals doom or niching of the HDM market. You can disagree, but I see no evidence other than blanket statements of "I see no reason why it wouldn't go this way" as the only evidence in support of this view. Most importantly, I think WB can see this as the likely outcome of such a decision. And, for the hundredth time, they see the slide in income from DVD and the need to get things going fast in HDM. They have seen, from the perspective of a content provider, what just transpired with Wal-Mart's download service. They know that Apple also wants content providers for downloads and that, while neither company's model for home player is very mature, Apple has a massive advantage in portables. No matter how much MS tries to play things off, you can bet Apple sees through this move and isn't going to let the download side of this event go without a fight. I could go on and on and on, but it has all been said.

There is no guarantee until the press releases fly, but if you actually look at the whole picture, there is a load more evidence in favor of optimism, a lot less evidence in favor of a less favorable outcome, and about diddle over squat, unless you want to start counting random fanboys or Amir and companys statements that HDM is over as the word of truth, in favor of the doomsday scenario that suddenly popped up after the insiders, as they said they were going to due to work and such, went offline.

Just my opinion of course. But seriously, look at the pattern of chatter following every major insider news development since the Paramount trauma and you will see this same pattern emerge again and again. Thinkk about that. [

merrick97, given that my little rant here got bigger than I intended, I want to make sure you know that I am not by any means trying to say that you are any kind of FUD poster, chicken littles, or other personal negative things. Too much personal negative crap has been happening of late and I don't want any misunderstandings here. I read your posts and see that you are a poster that tries to consider things from multiple viewpoints and who thinks before he posts. I just happen to disagree with you here and have seen this pattern emerge and a lot of very smart and logical posters get sucked into it again and again. All other areas where I disagree with you here considered, I totally agree with you that the BDA must not let WB go and that they absolutely need to convince them that neutrality for much longer would be nearly as disasterous as going red. I just really believe that the BDA does understand this, and more importantly that WB is not as dense as some seem to fear they are. They are, financially, one of the best off studios right now, they already refused one bribe, they have a new CEO of the parent company that has a very practical and realistic outlook, and they also have a track record of being one of the most independent studios around. I don't think that the studio that, on multiple occasions turned down help in mastering their BDs in house because they don't like giving up control are likely to want to make any deals that give MS any inroads on their ability to control their properties in any way shape or form. Particularly when they have a bad history with MS and a history of making moves to counteract MSs power in any market in which they have dealings with MS. Anything could happen, a comet could slam into my house tomorrow. But I think that the fact that the entire West Coast could fall into the ocean tonight or that a new island could rise out of the middle of the Atlantic at any moment is the main reason to not make a definite statement about the outcome before the outcome happens.

chris

I have no problem with this post whatsoever. Nicely said.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by Esox50

What you say is true from a historical standpoint. However, the notion above assumes that the studios continue releasing in 2008 at the same rate they have previously. I think 2008 has been pegged as the year where the studios want to make significant headway in establishing HDM.

I believe Fox has stated they intend to release 100 titles, which would be way more than they have done previously. Disney's first 1/2 08 leaked slate looks to be be fairly aggressive as well. I know these are "promises", and things could change. However, I think it's safe to assume that they'll get to 80% of what they promise much like Universal promised 100 titles for HD DVD and released something like 82 titles. (I apologize a lot of this is from memory).

Bottom line, I think it's safe to assume...
80-100 titles from:
Sony Pictures (on Blu)
20th Century Fox (on Blu)
Disney Home Video (on Blu)
Universal (on HD DVD)
Warner Bros (currently on both, though BD may get a 1/2 dozen more than HD DVD in the calendar year in the form of the 'missing titles' like Batman Begins, The Matrix, etc)

Paramount has promised 30-40 titles (on HD DVD)

I don't know about Lion's Gate and how extensive their catalog is, but maybe 20-30 titles from them on Blu?

Then of course, there's a bunch of smaller studios and independents.

Anyway, those are just rough estimates, some based on studio comments and obviously subject to change (and Fox has proven they can go AWOL at any time ).

In the end, the point is that if the studios are really going to grow HDM, I think previous release patterns are not necessarily indicative of future plans. I fully expect to buy 50% more than I did in 2007 (assuming the BDA doesn't screw the pooch and let WB go HD DVD in which case that's a vote of 'no confidence' in HDM, and I'd be done with it).

Good analysis, but my comments were also largely aimed at upcoming new releases as much as catalog titles. But, either way you slice it, once Warner is ready to "unleash hell" (to quote a line from a movie that they don't own ), they have the most impressive list of movies of all studios in my opinion.

If I was stuck on a desert island, and I could choose to watch all the movies I wanted from a single studio, it would be Warner.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

If I was stuck on a desert island, and I could choose to watch all the movies I wanted from a single studio, it would be Warner.

No LoA?

...somebody must be using Rob's sign-on again!!!

[phansson]

Originally Posted by merrick97

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the fact of the matter is bluray is toast if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive.

Personally, I don't think Warner going HD DVD would end the war. I think it would even the field for hd dvd. Sales would go to around 50/50.

Warner going Blu Ray exclusive WOULD end the war. Sales leads of around 75/25 for Blu Ray would turn some retailers heads.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Because all those PS/3s disappear?

Who said PS3's would disappear?

Because all those PS/3 and BD standalone owners will rush to buy HD DVD?

No, they won't rush. But if studios like Fox and Disney would follow WB to HD DVD exclusiveness, you bet your ass those PS3 and BD standalone owners will start buying HD DVD's....eventually.

Besides, you surely realize that a large number of BD owners also own HD DVD players as well, right?

Because nobody needs Sony releases?

Funny that you would say this to me, considering my avatar!

If Sony is left standing alone.............

How does it end the war in any way that guarantees a success for HDM?

Gary

There are no "guarantees" in business. We all know that, don't we?

Are you saying that the chances of success for HDM are not increased if there is one winner, even if it is HD DVD?

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by Esox50

No LoA?

...somebody must be using Rob's sign-on again!!!

That's why I put the little at the end of that sentence.

I knew someone would bring that up. Didn't take long!

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

It doesn't matter to be honest.
If Warner went red I can not see any but the most fanatical blu backer not going purple within weeks of the announcement.
We just have to hope that Sony has learned a lesson by losing big exclusives on the gaming side and will do whatever it takes to seal the deal.
But this is the INSIDER'S thread, we have a warner discussion thread.

If any at all, I could see me ebaying all my Blu-ray stuff and sticking with pay per view movies on Sky HD (UK satalite) for the time being.

It's WB exclusivity or bust for Blu-ray, clear and simple as that.

WB exclusivity for HD-DVD not only kills Blu-ray, it also speeds up the death of HD-DVD, it would be HD downloads or DVD.

[blitz6speed]

Rob, the MAJORITY of HD DVD Supporters own Blu-Ray players. The NICHE of a NICHE of blu-ray supporters own HD DVD players. I would never invest in HD DVD myself, just in a blu-ray burner and blanks.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Besides, you surely realize that a large number of BD owners also own HD DVD players as well, right?

No, I realize a large number of HD DVD owners own BD players.

I see no indication of any significant movement the other direction.

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

There are no "guarantees" in business. We all know that, don't we?

Are you saying that the chances of success for HDM are not increased if there is one winner, even if it is HD DVD?

I'm saying that without 100% support there is no winner. And p!ssing off millions of people with the access to HD DVD porting tools and burners is not a way to get the classic titles ever released on HD DVD.

Gary

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

No, I realize a large number of HD DVD owners own BD players.

I see no indication of any significant movement the other direction.

I'd be willing to bet that there are just as many BD owners that own HD DVD players are there are HD DVD owners that own BD players.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

I'd be willing to bet that there are just as many BD owners that own HD DVD players are there are HD DVD owners that own BD players.

Yes, in a strict sense, of course . But, I'm refering to people who bought one and then got the other.

There is plenty of "now purple" people who got Blu-ray. There are much smaller numbers that went the other way.

Certainly it would change with a Warner defection. But, it would still be a mess.

Gary